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OT:Buccos

pittbb80

Chancellor
Oct 9, 2004
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Curious to hear others take on the Buccos with about 1/3 of the season completed. I just don't think the BUccos have "it" this year and will probably be sitting out the post season. They just seem to have too many issues on the pitching side of the equation, combined with Cutch still not hitting as well has he has. Way too many things need to change for the Pirates to nail down a WC spot and even then, I don't see them getting past the Cubbies.

Franky and Watson need to get back in the groove again. I think Watson should be able to get back on track but Im not as optimistic about Franky who has largely anchored the rotation the least few years.

They need to find two more starters. After Cole and Neise Locke there's not much there.

Cutch has to regain his stroke. Don't know for sure but I don't think hes ever struggled this far into the season.

Just too many things need to get corrected for this team to contend. I guess we'll find out during the next stretch of games against some of the better teams in the NL. They could get buried if things don't change dramatically
 
Curious to hear others take on the Buccos with about 1/3 of the season completed. I just don't think the BUccos have "it" this year and will probably be sitting out the post season. They just seem to have too many issues on the pitching side of the equation, combined with Cutch still not hitting as well has he has. Way too many things need to change for the Pirates to nail down a WC spot and even then, I don't see them getting past the Cubbies.

Franky and Watson need to get back in the groove again. I think Watson should be able to get back on track but Im not as optimistic about Franky who has largely anchored the rotation the least few years.

They need to find two more starters. After Cole and Neise Locke there's not much there.

Cutch has to regain his stroke. Don't know for sure but I don't think hes ever struggled this far into the season.

Just too many things need to get corrected for this team to contend. I guess we'll find out during the next stretch of games against some of the better teams in the NL. They could get buried if things don't change dramatically
The Buccos have had a few things go south that that were fortunate with the past few years. namely starting pitching and relief pitching.

Liriano has been very bad. he was a guy looked upon as their ace. Cole has started looking like his old self the past 4 or 5 starts. Niese has done fairly well as a 3rd or 4th starter. Nicasio has been worse than Liriano and with Locke you don't know what you are going to get though he has been pitching better lately.

That brings me to a wildly inconsistent bullpen. too often these guys are in the game in the 4th and 5th inning because of inconsistent starting pitching and they haven't been able to hold the line and keep the team in games like in the past.

Then you come to Watson who, even in games that he doesn't give up runs he hasn't been sharp. That fastball is meat when left in the middle of the strike zone.

Pitching help will be on the way in 10 days or so. The staff needs to make some tough decision on who to drop out of the rotation, who to drop out of the bullpen and who to drop altogether.

Their position players and bench are fine. In fact this is as deep as they have been, even with Cutch struggling so this season pretty much rests on the pitching staff getting it together.

If you look at the National league other than the Cubs the Pirates are very much alive for a wild card. I don't see the Cubs faltering enough to blow a 10 game lead in the Central. but then again they are the Cubs.
 
Sure would look good top have Happ atop our rotation right now. He was our ace down the stretch last year, really should have been our starter for the WC game. Cole isn't an ace, Liriano is probably more of a 3-4 at this point than a 2. Niese has been OK and Locke has really improved. We really have to hope one of Glasnow or Taillon can be the lock down starter we need, and quick (a lot to ask I know).

Watson will come around and I think our pen will be fine. Perhaps getting Nicasio out of the rotation and back to the pen will help him as well. If I'm the Pirates, I'm kicking myself for not looking at dealing Melancon last offseason. There were rumors the Nats were interested and they had a few young arms that were more than likely available. Tanner Roark would look awfully good in our rotation right now. I'm not saying Melancon isn't an asset to the team. I'm just saying they could have applied his money elsewhere (Happ, perhaps?) and gotten something good in return. And the Pirates have proven how replaceable pen arms, especially closers, are.
 
Agree, but let's give it some more time before we eulogize them. I'm pretty sure we all thought the Pens were done for the year after the 1/3 mark of the season. Things can change in a hurry once the June call ups start coming.
 
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The bullpen right now is very shaky and at the moment they have no other left hand options. I was at the game on Saturday and I agree Cutch is definitely hurt he really seems off. Liriano pitching isn't helping matters like everyone I expect the studs from Indy will be here shortly.
 
Sure would look good top have Happ atop our rotation right now. He was our ace down the stretch last year, really should have been our starter for the WC game. Cole isn't an ace, Liriano is probably more of a 3-4 at this point than a 2. Niese has been OK and Locke has really improved. We really have to hope one of Glasnow or Taillon can be the lock down starter we need, and quick (a lot to ask I know).

Watson will come around and I think our pen will be fine. Perhaps getting Nicasio out of the rotation and back to the pen will help him as well. If I'm the Pirates, I'm kicking myself for not looking at dealing Melancon last offseason. There were rumors the Nats were interested and they had a few young arms that were more than likely available. Tanner Roark would look awfully good in our rotation right now. I'm not saying Melancon isn't an asset to the team. I'm just saying they could have applied his money elsewhere (Happ, perhaps?) and gotten something good in return. And the Pirates have proven how replaceable pen arms, especially closers, are.

Yes Happ would look good as a Buc this year, even with that 4.20 FIP, but he is likely to fall off the cliff at any moment, and then we owe him 26m the next 2 seasons. Already looking like we may have that very same issue with Liriano...

Cole is having a down year, it happens. You and many others will be eating those words when he turns it around. I mean, he was a top 10 pitcher in MLB just last season...

Cole and Liriano are the only ones that can fix themselves and turn it around. Unless that happens, it's going to be a real battle to have another strong season. Locke and Neise are not the problem right now. Nicasio to the bullpen is a no-brainer, Taillon is ready.

And we very much disagree on the bullpen. IMO it's this teams biggest weakness, and we need to either make a trade or switch an AAA starter like Kule over and promote them. I agree these are tough decisions, but something has to be done while the Wildcard is still in reach. And they tried hard to move Melancon, but with all the other top closers available, the value just wasn't there, thank god. Could you imagine how bad the Pen would be without him right now?

Cutch will come around. Marte has another gear too. This is the best group of position players I have ever seen in Pittsburgh if you include.the bench. But we won't be going anywhere without a solid bullpen.
 
I agree with Cougar Claws

Bullpen stinks.

But Cutch will heat up. i think they still win 90+ and in the WC

The good news is they wont see Arietta in a 1 game playoff
 
Very bullish on the future.

Lineup pretty young and, most importantly, locked in for the next few years. Polanco looking great, Kang showing he isn't a fluke, Cervelli picking up where he left off, etc.

Hitting is more predictable than pitching, so locking up hitters is crucial.

At this point, it feels like the "they need to capitalize on Cutch's window" phase may have already passed and transitioned into "they need to capitalize on Polanco's window". He looks like an absolute monster thus far.

Get Taillon up, hopefully get Glasnow up, get Bell a cup of coffee, ramp Kingham up for next year -- you have a solid core.

As was mentioned, Happ really isn't good. He had the "Jeff Locke makes All-Star team" run of good luck last year. Paying for pitching in general just sucks. They did a big article on it this past offseason and every deal ends badly. The best one, believe it or not, was Liriano's deal and he looks like he's shot at this point. Better to just develop young guys, throw them until their arms fall off, then let them walk.

It's kind of funny, people were looking at this as a down year due to losing guys like Walker and Alvarez, but really the offense has been great. It's still trending as a down year, but it's because the pitching took a step back.
 
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Also, FWIW, Cutch admitted to having some discomfort in his thumb that likely won't go away this year.

He's Cutch so I never count him out when it comes to turning it around, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't.

He's striking out more than ever, which is always a red flag that something is off.
 
not even a shout out to the forgotten man in the outfield who's 5th in the NL in average?
yeah he could use more power and walk more, but Marte is great and wrapped up for the next 5+
 
not even a shout out to the forgotten man in the outfield who's 5th in the NL in average?
yeah he could use more power and walk more, but Marte is great and wrapped up for the next 5+

He's very good and would be a perennial MVP candidate if he were playing his natural position.
 
Trade Cutch, Melancon and Cole now while you still can.

Would actually like to see them trade Melancon, otherwise they'll lose him for nothing. Similar to Walker, he isn't good enough to warrant a Qualifying Offer or young enough to warrant an extension.

They don't have to trade Cutch or (especially) Cole for another couple of years.

I especially wouldn't sell low on those guys.
 
They don't look great but neither does anyone else in the NL besides the Cubs. They won't have to win 98 games to get a WC spot.
 
First off, the Buccos are playing for a Wild Card. The Cubs are on an historic pace. And even if you question if it is sustainable, look at their run differential, they are just killing teams. The Pirates can win 100 games and still finish 2nd.

So they are in a no real different place than they have been the past few years.

The problem is the pitching. The bullpen has been horrid. Frankie has been bad. Cole has been...."meh". The offense has been excellent. They are among the leaders in most categories offensively.

And yeah, very bullish on the future. The pitchers coming up look like true studs. Marte and Polanco are committed to very club friendly, long term contracts. Cervelli is locked up, Kang for a few more years. UnCutch is the only one having a down year.

I think they will be in the Wild Card race to the end. Watson, don't know what the hell is going on there. I don't think they will make the playoffs this year, but again be in the race until the end, unless Glasnow and Taillon come up and really perform well. The problem will once again come down to a one game winner take all where they will have to face a Sherzer or a Baumgartner or Kershaw, etc...and the Pirates just don't have that lights out pitcher. Cole is not that, at least not yet.
 
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Nobody on this thread has mentioned the other young pitcher we have at Indy. I believe Kugler is his name and his era is better than Glasnows. Last time I checked he was under 2.
 
At this point, it feels like the "they need to capitalize on Cutch's window" phase may have already passed and transitioned into "they need to capitalize on Polanco's window". He looks like an absolute monster thus far.

I'm starting to think next year is the time to make the push. Their 2016 offense is great, and almost everything will be here for the next few years. They just need to work on the pitching, but they have some guys ready for the jump.

If they could swing an above average shortstop signing, lookout.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2016-payroll-salaries.shtml
 
The fact that our pitching has been off lately and Glasnow and Taillon have not been called up is Nutting .......being Nutting
 
I'm starting to think next year is the time to make the push. Their 2016 offense is great, and almost everything will be here for the next few years. They just need to work on the pitching, but they have some guys ready for the jump.

If they could swing an above average shortstop signing, lookout.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2016-payroll-salaries.shtml

Provided there are no lasting effects from the orbital fracture, my best guess is they'll try to get Kevin Newman (last year's first rounder) up at the end of next season, with the hope of him winning the job in 2017.

The free agent class of shortstops is, like pretty much all free agent classes these days, extremely depressing.
 
The fact that our pitching has been off lately and Glasnow and Taillon have not been called up is Nutting .......being Nutting

Glasnow needs to develop a 3rd pitch and they've skipped some of Taillon's starts in order to manage his innings after missing the last 2 seasons with injury.

It's like bitching about Polanco being held down -- there were legitimate reasons. Glasnow's scouting reports aren't as glowing as his statistics, at this point he's Juan Nicasio. A 2-pitch pitcher who, if he isn't commanding his breaking pitch, is going to walk a bunch of guys because guys are just going to sit on his fastball and lay off all of his curveballs.

Edit: Here's a recent scouting report on him from 2080 Baseball, and it essentially spells out why the Pirates are keeping him in AAA and forcing him to develop a changeup -- he doesn't repeat his delivery well enough to have great command/control on a game-to-game basis so he badly needs a 3rd pitch:

I got my first live look of Glasnow during his May 27th start at Pawtucket. The first thing to stand out with Glasnow is the 6-foot-8, 225-pound frame. Also, the fact that he’s just 22 years old, and pitching at the top of the Pirates’ rotation for the Indianapolis Indians. He’s filled out with long limbs, yet displays athleticism with his delivery and a clean arm action. The fastball comfortably sat at 93-to-95 mph (T96) mph through six innings. The fastball was pretty straight, but it gets on hitters quick, not only because of the velocity, but also because of his extension and long release out front.

The command/control profile was fringe-average, and the fastball didn’t miss many bats. The curveball was a legitimate weapon at 78-to-80 mph with tight, consistent, 12-to-6 downer action, coming in at the same plane as the fastball and dropping off the table. Just as impressive was his ability to consistently control and bury the curveball down and out of the zone when needed. Glasnow picked up 10 swings-and-misses (13 total) with his curveball alone this outing. The changeup was a well below-average offering at 88-to-91 mph; it was used sparingly, flat and essentially a BP fastball. Another point of concern was Glasnow’s slow release times to the plate from the stretch, ranging 1.43-1.64 seconds before finally utilizing a slide step in the later innings and getting down to the 1.26-1.27 range.

Based on this one look, I don’t see Glasnow as a future top of the rotation guy given his lack of a third pitch, fringy command and control profile, and his hittable fastball. A middle to back-end of the rotation projection seems more likely, or worst case scenario of a move to the bullpen. Assuming he can maintain the level of control and consistency he showed this outing, the curveball was good enough to make me think that he may even be able to get away with the below-average changeup. Given Glasnow’s age, body, clean delivery, and Pittsburgh’s recent history with developing pitchers, I’ll take the gamble on him staying in the rotation, and improving the changeup enough to allow him to stick as a consistent #3 mid-rotation starter. However, a future move to the bullpen would not be the most shocking development down the road.
 
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You may be the only person on the planet besides Happ's mom who thinks he's a better pitcher than Cole.

He was the better pitcher the second half of last year and it wasn't even close. We can call Happ's success a fluke but he maintained his level of success for months. Perhaps he saw extreme benefit under Searage. But he was better last year and I'd bet he'd be better this year if he was still here. He was more efficient and had better stuff. Heck, I was even surprised at Happ's velocity when he got here.

I like Cole, but he hasn't proven to be a dominant 1 (see last year's WC game). To be fair, he has a great deal of pressure on his shoulders with the rest of the rotation being somewhat underwhelming (aside from Locke) and the bullpen being weak so far. Hopefully infusing good young talent into the rotation (Glasnow, Taillon, maybe Kuhl, eventually Brault) and an improved pen will take some of the pressure off of Cole.
 
Taillon's scouting reports have been very strong. He threw 99 pitches in his previous start, which was his final hurdle. The goal was to limit innings, pitch counts, and starts early in the year in the minors so they could avoid needing to do that late year in the majors.

Here is his most recent scouting report from Baseball Prospectus, who threw a future 70 on him:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=363
 
I don't know what this means but you sound uninformed.

Comparing 2016 opening day roster salary total to roughly five years ago to today. Franchise has consistently dumped salary when it there's any kind of significant bump. Been a few years. 2009-10 was the last time and payroll is up $50 million since then.

Argue that Nutting is different if you want (guess he deserves the benefit of the doubt for now) but they're at least $15 million from being competitive for a title (probably closer to $20-$30) and they won't go get a free agent to put them over the top. Can be $15 million lower and it only costs you five or six wins over a third of a season and historically, attendance really won't suffer either.

None of the other franchises in the city get away with being near the bottom of their league in salary but Pirates always get a pass. This board crucifies me every time I say it but it's the truth until proven otherwise.
 
Comparing 2016 opening day roster salary total to roughly five years ago to today. Franchise has consistently dumped salary when it there's any kind of significant bump. Been a few years. 2009-10 was the last time and payroll is up $50 million since then.

Argue that Nutting is different if you want (guess he deserves the benefit of the doubt for now) but they're at least $15 million from being competitive for a title (probably closer to $20-$30) and they won't go get a free agent to put them over the top. Can be $15 million lower and it only costs you five or six wins over a third of a season and historically, attendance really won't suffer either.

None of the other franchises in the city get away with being near the bottom of their league in salary but Pirates always get a pass. This board crucifies me every time I say it but it's the truth until proven otherwise.

It makes my head hurt when people equate X amount of payroll to Y amount of wins. There's no correlation anymore.

I cannot think of a more facile, lazy way to look at things.

Yeah, Carl Crawford's $30MM is going to make a huge difference in the Dodgers' World Series hopes while he toils away in AAA. Probably why they're also paying half of Matt Kemp's salary. Gotta have those dollars in the playoffs. I'm sure the Giants are thrilled that they have Matt Cain's salary to get them over the top. Red Sox are probably thanking their lucky stars for Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval's payroll being on their books while they're on the shelf or in the minors. Cardinals probably can't wait to have Mike Leake's deal in October for the next several years.

More payroll doesn't mean more talent. More payroll means you have the ability to eat more bad contracts. Look at the big payroll teams -- they aren't accumulating a bunch of talent. They're just eating a bunch of terrible contracts to washed up veterans.
 
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Comparing 2016 opening day roster salary total to roughly five years ago to today. Franchise has consistently dumped salary when it there's any kind of significant bump. Been a few years. 2009-10 was the last time and payroll is up $50 million since then.

Argue that Nutting is different if you want (guess he deserves the benefit of the doubt for now) but they're at least $15 million from being competitive for a title (probably closer to $20-$30) and they won't go get a free agent to put them over the top. Can be $15 million lower and it only costs you five or six wins over a third of a season and historically, attendance really won't suffer either.

None of the other franchises in the city get away with being near the bottom of their league in salary but Pirates always get a pass. This board crucifies me every time I say it but it's the truth until proven otherwise.

At least 15 million away? Jesus, the only reason they didn't "contend" for a title last year is Arrieta turned into the greatest pitcher ever somehow. Payroll doesn't correlate to wins.
 
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Really? WS Champs since 2010

Year Club Opening Day payroll rank and $ Pirates Rank
2015 Kansas City 16th $113.6 million 25 ($88.3)
2014 SF Giants 7th $154.2 million 27 ($78.1)
2013 Red Sox 5th $150.7 million 20 ($79.6)
2012 SF Giants 8th $116.7 million 26 ($63.4)
2011 St Louis 11th $105.4 million 27 ($46.1)
2010 SF Giants 10th $97.8 million 30 ($34.9)

Please don't tell me being cheap doesn't matter. Even in cap sports, teams that don't spend, don't win.
 
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Really?

Year Club Opening Day payroll rank and $
2015 Kansas City 16th $113.6 million
2014 SF Giants 7th $154.2 million
2013 Red Sox

Look at the dead money on those books. That's where payroll matters. Absorbing mistakes. The Brewers took on bad contracts, but couldn't absorb them and faltered. The Reds did the same thing. The Twins did the same thing. The Padres and Diamondbacks are on that path.

Dodgers have a $245MM payroll this year and are only paying $135MM of it to players currently on their team. And that $135MM includes the contracts to Kendrick, Kazmir, and Utley, which are well above-market contracts given the production those players provide.
 
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Look at the dead money on those books. That's where payroll matters. Absorbing mistakes. The Brewers took on bad contracts, but couldn't absorb them and faltered. The Reds did the same thing. The Twins did the same thing. The Padres and Diamondbacks are on that path.

Dodgers have a $245MM payroll this year and are only paying $135MM of it to players currently on their team. And that $135MM includes the contracts to Kendrick, Kazmir, and Utley, which are well above-market contracts given the production those players provide.

Doesn't matter where the money is going. Dead or not, those teams won.

Yes, sometimes teams spend too much money on dumb moves. But bad teams almost never are spending money.
 
Doesn't matter where the money is going. Dead or not, those teams won.

Yes, sometimes teams spend too much money on dumb moves. But bad teams almost never are spending money.

Phillies last year and the year before? Angels? Padres last year? Yankees recently? Red Sox last year? Tigers recently?

I have no idea what connection you're making between payroll and winning. You could lop off $26MM from the Royals last year and make 0 impact on their team. That $26MM did absolutely nothing to help them.

You are literally killing the Pirates for not having a single bad contract on their books.
 
Glasnow needs to develop a 3rd pitch and they've skipped some of Taillon's starts in order to manage his innings after missing the last 2 seasons with injury.

It's like bitching about Polanco being held down -- there were legitimate reasons. Glasnow's scouting reports aren't as glowing as his statistics, at this point he's Juan Nicasio. A 2-pitch pitcher who, if he isn't commanding his breaking pitch, is going to walk a bunch of guys because guys are just going to sit on his fastball and lay off all of his curveballs.

Edit: Here's a recent scouting report on him from 2080 Baseball, and it essentially spells out why the Pirates are keeping him in AAA and forcing him to develop a changeup -- he doesn't repeat his delivery well enough to have great command/control on a game-to-game basis so he badly needs a 3rd pitch:

I got my first live look of Glasnow during his May 27th start at Pawtucket. The first thing to stand out with Glasnow is the 6-foot-8, 225-pound frame. Also, the fact that he’s just 22 years old, and pitching at the top of the Pirates’ rotation for the Indianapolis Indians. He’s filled out with long limbs, yet displays athleticism with his delivery and a clean arm action. The fastball comfortably sat at 93-to-95 mph (T96) mph through six innings. The fastball was pretty straight, but it gets on hitters quick, not only because of the velocity, but also because of his extension and long release out front.

The command/control profile was fringe-average, and the fastball didn’t miss many bats. The curveball was a legitimate weapon at 78-to-80 mph with tight, consistent, 12-to-6 downer action, coming in at the same plane as the fastball and dropping off the table. Just as impressive was his ability to consistently control and bury the curveball down and out of the zone when needed. Glasnow picked up 10 swings-and-misses (13 total) with his curveball alone this outing. The changeup was a well below-average offering at 88-to-91 mph; it was used sparingly, flat and essentially a BP fastball. Another point of concern was Glasnow’s slow release times to the plate from the stretch, ranging 1.43-1.64 seconds before finally utilizing a slide step in the later innings and getting down to the 1.26-1.27 range.

Based on this one look, I don’t see Glasnow as a future top of the rotation guy given his lack of a third pitch, fringy command and control profile, and his hittable fastball. A middle to back-end of the rotation projection seems more likely, or worst case scenario of a move to the bullpen. Assuming he can maintain the level of control and consistency he showed this outing, the curveball was good enough to make me think that he may even be able to get away with the below-average changeup. Given Glasnow’s age, body, clean delivery, and Pittsburgh’s recent history with developing pitchers, I’ll take the gamble on him staying in the rotation, and improving the changeup enough to allow him to stick as a consistent #3 mid-rotation starter. However, a future move to the bullpen would not be the most shocking development down the road.

Jesus. That scout is basically calling Glasnow Bryan Bullington. Come on. That is ridiculous.
 
I don't know what this means but you sound uninformed.

This is that same tired Delpanther narrative of "Nutting's Cheap". Okay he is, but they are smart too. I think the Pirates should just throw money on players just because. We have seen how this has helped the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Dodgers, etc... Even the Yankees have backed off from this.

I can already here the same whining when they trade McCutcheon, possibly this off season, to try and get some prospects, and not signing a 31 year old Cutch when his contract is up to some $200 million Carl Crawford like contract. Is that cheap? NO! That is smart. Especially with Austin Meadows in the wings.

We didn't sign Russell Martin to that ridiculous contract that Toronto did but we got Cervelli and locked him for the next 3 1/2 years for about a third of the money, and he is younger. Is that cheap? No, that is smart!

The only valid "cheap" comment is quite possibly the organization did not do a good enough job in seeking out some rotation help whether it was retaining Happ, but my god, look at the contract that someone like Ian Kennedy got.

I am tired of this narrative that is now what at least 5 years old. This franchise has the 2nd best record in MLB over the last 3 years. It looks to be set up to be a major contender for at least another 5 years, if not more. That is a window most BIG MONEY franchises don't see.
 
Jesus. That scout is basically calling Glasnow Bryan Bullington. Come on. That is ridiculous.

To be 100% fair to Dave Littlefield, a scout or front office member calling a guy a #3 starter isn't particularly perjorative.

The basic terminology is that there are maybe 10-12 "aces" or "#1" starters at any one time in baseball. Maybe another 20 #2 starters. And then probably 30 or so #3 starters. So a #3 starter is still one of the 60 or so best pitchers in baseball.

A true #4 starter is considered to be dead league average (they'd receive a grade of "50" out of 80). It's why the Niese for Walker swap made sense. You were trading 2 guys who are league average players making a similar salary at positions of excess.
 
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