OT: Cruz vs Suwinsky (Pirates)

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,747
5,498
113
Don’t understand the talk about Cruz’s average. He’s got it up to .230 and he’s still a rookie. Walk rate improving. .250-.260 is not out of the question in the next few seasons, and neither is 40 HRs.

Yeah .230 for a rookie is decent, especially these days where BA has dropped overall.
 

persp

Senior
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2001
4,001
4,751
113
i'd love some baseball nut to come on here and analyze his swing for us and see if higher avg's are in his future. Jack was batting .359 in Indy (AAA) but short stint for sure. looking at his season long batting averages in the minors, low. .250 - .260 range..

Cruz, im not an expert but dude is 6'7" so i'd imagine the bigger strike zone and his power will never lead to higher averages. BUT, he is taking walks, not swinging at garbage so pitchers will start having to pitch better to him, in theory at least..

of course as soon as i say this, last night they threw him 4 balls with bases loaded in a tie game in bottom of ninth..
Ill be your Huckleberry.

Frankly, Cruz's swing is pretty short for a guy his size. His path to the ball is pretty direct, especially compared to other big guys like Polanco who tend to be more rotational with their bat path.

Really, the biggest issue for Cuz has been pitch selection so its not a surprise that an improvement in plate discipline would be the main factor in his recent successes. The major advantage that Cruz has is that his power is so effortlessly massive that all he has to do is hunt for good pitches to barrel up and he can hit for average. His exit velocity gives him a much higher chance of finding hits on balls that would be outs to the average MLBer. I can see him being a .270-.280 guy at his peak if his plate discipline keeps improving.

As far as the comparison to Suwinsky goes, for me its all based on the hype around the physical mutations that Cruz possesses. Suwinsky was a rather unheralded, fringy prospect that came to the Bucs in a minor trade with little fanfare. He was solid while in the Bucs system but nothing that screamed future Bucco cornerstone. He just came up to the majors and started raking. I'm bullish on him now though. Im a big fan of his swing and approach, but he just has to grow into being a pro. I dont think he will be a 30+ dinger guy long term, but I think he will settle into being a solid corner OF that hits somewhere around .260/.330/.470 guy with 20-25 dingers/year
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zeldas Open Roof

recruitsreadtheseboards

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jun 11, 2006
84,878
73,718
113
Suwinski is a perfect corner outfielder for the Pirates. He is that lefty who is a dead pull hitter. He has and likely will have big HOME and away splits because of PNC Park. If he can hit 30 HR's and bat .225, the Pirates can be in a much worse spot than having a corner OF like that.
 

Joe the Panther Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Jul 6, 2001
38,929
18,459
113
Cruz, im not an expert but dude is 6'7" so i'd imagine the bigger strike zone and his power will never lead to higher averages. BUT, he is taking walks, not swinging at garbage so pitchers will start having to pitch better to him, in theory at least..


It is harder for taller guys to hit for a high average (their strike zone is just so big for good pitchers to attack), but it should be pointed out that the guy who is currently second in the American League in batting average and has a chance to win a triple crown is the exact same height as Cruz.

So it can be done, but it is really difficult.

If they can just get him to better recognize pitches so he can lay off some of the bad balls he swings at that would be enough. It would raise his average a little and his on base percentage a decent amount, and if he can do that without losing any power he's really going to be something.

That's the difference between him and Suwinsky. Suwinsky is a decent hitter who is well positioned to take advantage of his home park. And he has done that better than just about anyone who has ever played for the Pirates at PNC. If he can continue to do what he has done this season he'll be a valuable player going forward. But he doesn't have the raw talent that Cruz does. Not even close.

Of course neither do most other players.
 

Fk_Pitt

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2007
44,668
31,724
113
Suwinski is a perfect corner outfielder for the Pirates. He is that lefty who is a dead pull hitter. He has and likely will have big HOME and away splits because of PNC Park. If he can hit 30 HR's and bat .225, the Pirates can be in a much worse spot than having a corner OF like that.
 
  • Wow
Reactions: jctrack

gary2

Athletic Director
Jul 21, 2001
17,392
6,856
113
Can we stop this nonsense please.
You have not seen some of Cruz bonehead plays?

He makes base running mistakes. He has been picked off both at second and at first multiple times.

How about continuously interfering with outfielders plays?

He is not a smart player.

 
  • Haha
Reactions: jtownknowitall

Fk_Pitt

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2007
44,668
31,724
113
You have not seen some of Cruz bonehead plays?

He makes base running mistakes. He has been picked off both at second and at first multiple times.

How about continuously interfering with outfielders plays?

He is not a smart player.

I’ll tell you what’s not smart. I tuned into the Pirates in the 10th inning last night because I wanted to see if they could avoid 100 losses. And let me tell you, they deserve to lose 100.

runner on 2nd with 1 out and down a run in extra innings. Cruz is up and hits a ball hard to the right side that pinballs between two infielders and dies in the infield grass for an infield hit. The runner from 2nd easily gets to 3rd and Cruz is on 1st. But wait…the runner from 2nd rounded 3rd and tried to score on the infield hit and got thrown out at the plate. That’s absolutely mind numbing to me. If the runner holds at 3rd, Cruz likely would have been granted a stolen base without a throw on the next pitch, and the Pirates would have had runners on 2nd and 3rd, with 1 out and Reynolds batting. In any event Reynolds then grounded out to end the game.

not once in the game or post game did any tv personally question the stupidity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jctrack

Zeldas Open Roof

All P I T T !
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
30,059
37,949
113
I’ll tell you what’s not smart. I tuned into the Pirates in the 10th inning last night because I wanted to see if they could avoid 100 losses. And let me tell you, they deserve to lose 100.

runner on 2nd with 1 out and down a run in extra innings. Cruz is up and hits a ball hard to the right side that pinballs between two infielders and dies in the infield grass for an infield hit. The runner from 2nd easily gets to 3rd and Cruz is on 1st. But wait…the runner from 2nd rounded 3rd and tried to score on the infield hit and got thrown out at the plate. That’s absolutely mind numbing to me. If the runner holds at 3rd, Cruz likely would have been granted a stolen base without a throw on the next pitch, and the Pirates would have had runners on 2nd and 3rd, with 1 out and Reynolds batting. In any event Reynolds then grounded out to end the game.

not once in the game or post game did any tv personally question the stupidity.
he was safe at home.. i watched too becuase for some reason i wanted to avoid the 100th loss, even though we are probably better off with more losses come draft time..
 

Fk_Pitt

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2007
44,668
31,724
113
he was safe at home.. i watched too becuase for some reason i wanted to avoid the 100th loss, even though we are probably better off with more losses come draft time..
Yeah I thought he was safe too. But obviously that’s not the point. I guess when you’re sitting at 99 loses there’s nothing to lose…but with decisions like that, that’s how you get to 100.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zeldas Open Roof

Zeldas Open Roof

All P I T T !
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
30,059
37,949
113
Yeah I thought he was safe too. But obviously that’s not the point. I guess when you’re sitting at 99 loses there’s nothing to lose…but with decisions like that, that’s how you get to 100.
there is little to be excited about for '23 but Jack and Cruz are two of them. just got to get their avg's up 20 points and we have some young, very exciting players.

now for the pitching staff..
 
  • Haha
Reactions: jctrack

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,747
5,498
113
there is little to be excited about for '23 but Jack and Cruz are two of them. just got to get their avg's up 20 points and we have some young, very exciting players.

now for the pitching staff..

Pitching staff is actually what I'm most excited about in 23 given the progression of the young guys and Keller turning into a decent big leaguer. Especially with guys like Priester in the wings. I think they make another buy low acquisition along the lines of Anderson and Quintana and we have a pretty solid rotation.
 

Fk_Pitt

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2007
44,668
31,724
113
there is little to be excited about for '23 but Jack and Cruz are two of them. just got to get their avg's up 20 points and we have some young, very exciting players.

now for the pitching staff..
Pitching staff is actually what I'm most excited about in 23 given the progression of the young guys and Keller turning into a decent big leaguer. Especially with guys like Priester in the wings. I think they make another buy low acquisition along the lines of Anderson and Quintana and we have a pretty solid rotation.
You guys getting excited is like Nutting in the owners ears.
 

Zeldas Open Roof

All P I T T !
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
30,059
37,949
113
Pitching staff is actually what I'm most excited about in 23 given the progression of the young guys and Keller turning into a decent big leaguer. Especially with guys like Priester in the wings. I think they make another buy low acquisition along the lines of Anderson and Quintana and we have a pretty solid rotation.
Keller has been fantastic. Man, i feel like we are building up Priester way too much but i hope im wrong..
 

Fk_Pitt

Lair Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2007
44,668
31,724
113
Keller has been fantastic. Man, i feel like we are building up Priester way too much but i hope im wrong..
I just remember how the last good team came together. They got lucky when Liriano turned into a #1 and Burnett was the stud AND leader he was. Russell Wilson was a stud leader too. Developing the young talent and then striking gold with pieces like I mentioned above will be tough to replicate again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zeldas Open Roof

TempleBAPittMPA

Board of Trustee
Aug 31, 2001
27,986
4,746
113
I just remember how the last good team came together. They got lucky when Liriano turned into a #1 and Burnett was the stud AND leader he was. Russell Wilson was a stud leader too. Developing the young talent and then striking gold with pieces like I mentioned above will be tough to replicate again.
Russell Wilson? Was that when he transferred from NC State to Wisconsin (or was it the other way around, I can't remember now)?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Fk_Pitt

joeydavid

Athletic Director
Gold Member
Feb 5, 2003
17,225
11,103
113
Go to Stathead.com and you can compare players to each other. My first amazement was that were actual stats created by people that Are nearly impossible to comprehend. Without in depth review of what each stat meant it appears to me that Cruz has deeper statistics that make him a better looking player than Suwinski. But I did not plug in Aaron Judge or Ohtani to see how the two Buccos compare to obvious superstars. My biggest reveal was baseball has really gotten away from me and no wonder people no longer watch if these are the stats that matter.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: jctrack

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,747
5,498
113
You guys getting excited is like Nutting in the owners ears.

Maybe that was too strong a word. I don't really care too much about the Pirates anymore. I'm just saying it looks like it will be an area of strength.

Truth be told I'm not sure if I will care very much more if this team gets really good again. I like following them, looking at stats, trades, etc... But actually watching games is something I rarely do.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fk_Pitt

indoorgolf

Redshirt
Gold Member
Nov 26, 2010
816
347
63
That's just it. People are obsessed by batting average. The fact that Cruz has raised his average to around .230 is something. He is also reaching base more often. As I said months ago, Barry Bonds rookie season he batted .223 in an era where the average MLB hit .275-.280. He hit 116 HR's. So Cruz is batting .230 in an era where the average BA is .240. Plus Cruz nails homers to all fields, effortlessly. He runs like a deer. His arm is so good, I am surprised no one made him a pitch.

Suwinski is doing some nice things, but he is mostly a LH power hitter taking advantage of PNC's short RF.
Over the course of a full season the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is 1 hit per week so the production of HRS AND RBI’s is much more important than batting average.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4Mark_Marty

Dointhatrag

Freshman
Sep 3, 2017
1,942
1,588
113
2021 61-101
2022 62-100

Now that's progress!

In reality we played with a lot more rookies this year versus journeymen so you could look at this as progress. We will get to continue drafting high stock piling talent but next year really needs to see some meaningful improvement.

Is 72-90 enough? 75-87? I think that would be realistic if they really believe we are starting to gather talent.
 

Zeldas Open Roof

All P I T T !
Gold Member
Sep 18, 2018
30,059
37,949
113
Over the course of a full season the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is 1 hit per week so the production of HRS AND RBI’s is much more important than batting average.
did you get this from Bull Durham?
 
Sep 22, 2022
40
40
18
2021 61-101
2022 62-100

Now that's progress!

In reality we played with a lot more rookies this year versus journeymen so you could look at this as progress. We will get to continue drafting high stock piling talent but next year really needs to see some meaningful improvement.

Is 72-90 enough? 75-87? I think that would be realistic if they really believe we are starting to gather talent.
I hate myself for this, because I usually think that in the past September baseball was meaningless because of all the 40-man guys playing... However, seeing Cruz put together a nice September along with Ortiz. I'm a little more excited for next year than I should be, especially with condensed rosters in September for the first time.

I would like to see around 75 wins next year to show me real progress. It really sucks that Davis only got to play 60 games this year due to injuries. However Endy Rodriguez made the most of that and think he has a chance to be a good MLB player. The Pirates should be adding both those guys to the roster next year along with possible Burrows and Priester.

I'll be interested in what they do with Reynolds, he has two more years. They could absolutely get a massive haul for him in the winter.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CaptainMurphy

CaptainMurphy

Heisman Winner
Dec 10, 2004
8,747
5,498
113
I hate myself for this, because I usually think that in the past September baseball was meaningless because of all the 40-man guys playing... However, seeing Cruz put together a nice September along with Ortiz. I'm a little more excited for next year than I should be, especially with condensed rosters in September for the first time.

I would like to see around 75 wins next year to show me real progress. It really sucks that Davis only got to play 60 games this year due to injuries. However Endy Rodriguez made the most of that and think he has a chance to be a good MLB player. The Pirates should be adding both those guys to the roster next year along with possible Burrows and Priester.

I'll be interested in what they do with Reynolds, he has two more years. They could absolutely get a massive haul for him in the winter.

Agreed on all points. I think they could deal Reynolds but only if someone is willing to overpay and include multiple major league ready top level prospects.

I think this team needs to lose fewer than 90 games next year in order for it to feel like they are ready to make the next step. The time for rebuilding is over and now they need to start making substantial progress.
 

rmf05

Junior
Sep 5, 2017
3,909
2,488
113
I only saw a few games but both seemed like very good fielders. If they hit .250 they are guys you can won with. especially if Cruz cuts the stupid plays.