The margin for error is tiny for a small market club. You're one terrible contract away from being the Reds. Expanding your margin for error is the only place payroll matters. The Dodgers can pay Carl Crawford $30MM to play in AAA and be unaffected. The Red Sox can give out horrible deals to Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval and be fine. A small market team can't do that.
This is what Baseball Prospectus wrote about the Cueto signing for the Giants. BP is a feeder site for front offices, guys write there for a year or two and then get hired by MLB teams. This excerpt essentially lays out the general plan for every MLB team when it comes to maxing out their payroll and going "all-in" -- and for a small market team this sort of timing is even more critical:
"Brian Sabean (Giants' GM) is taking the risk anyway, because the Giants are in as good a position to make a leveraged bet as they’re likely to be for a long while. They’re an expensive team, these days: Cueto will become their seventh eight-figure investment for 2016, and he pushes their projected payroll into the $170 million range. Maybe they can afford that, but they can’t throw it around lightly. Some of the vital members of this core are moving toward the end of either their team control or their prime seasons, and that applies both time and financial pressure to the pursuit of another title or two.
The bullpen is old. Hunter Pence is old. Angel Pagan is headed for free agency. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey are both 29, and while they’re both great, Posey is already expensive, and Crawford is about to be. The Giants are on the hook with them well into their 30s. The farm system is bad. So the time is now."
The Cardinals are doing the same thing right now. They're old, their farm system is bare, their payroll is probably a little bloated -- now is when you sign dumb contracts like Mike Leake. The window looks like it's about closed, so you just throw caution to the wind and screw the consequences because you're about to rebuild anyway.
That's what the Pirates will need to do in a few years, and I've consistently said that. Make their big moves when the farm system is barren and the team is old and you're just trying to extend your window by another year or two. If you make that move too early as a small market team, you become the Reds or Brewers or Twins. Your payroll is maxed out with bad contracts you can't move, and you just sit in small market purgatory where your payroll is like 15th in the majors but your team is terrible and you can't trade anyone because nobody wants the contract (Joey Votto and Homer Bailey).
On the Cubs, they signed Lester to a big deal but they're paying Lackey about what Liriano got from the Pirates and they acquired Jake Arrieta for peanuts in a trade when the Orioles gave up on him. I don't consider Lackey or Arrieta moves to be "go for it" moves, although they've certainly worked out very well. Similar to Cervelli or Kang for the Pirates.
Epstein has also has said they likely won't extend Arrieta, because they don't feel comfortable going 5-6 years on a contract with him. The Cubs, IMO, didn't spend their way to anything. I mean, they're still paying Edwin Jackson almost $14MM this season to be a middle reliever in some other organization's farm system.
This is what Baseball Prospectus wrote about the Cueto signing for the Giants. BP is a feeder site for front offices, guys write there for a year or two and then get hired by MLB teams. This excerpt essentially lays out the general plan for every MLB team when it comes to maxing out their payroll and going "all-in" -- and for a small market team this sort of timing is even more critical:
"Brian Sabean (Giants' GM) is taking the risk anyway, because the Giants are in as good a position to make a leveraged bet as they’re likely to be for a long while. They’re an expensive team, these days: Cueto will become their seventh eight-figure investment for 2016, and he pushes their projected payroll into the $170 million range. Maybe they can afford that, but they can’t throw it around lightly. Some of the vital members of this core are moving toward the end of either their team control or their prime seasons, and that applies both time and financial pressure to the pursuit of another title or two.
The bullpen is old. Hunter Pence is old. Angel Pagan is headed for free agency. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey are both 29, and while they’re both great, Posey is already expensive, and Crawford is about to be. The Giants are on the hook with them well into their 30s. The farm system is bad. So the time is now."
The Cardinals are doing the same thing right now. They're old, their farm system is bare, their payroll is probably a little bloated -- now is when you sign dumb contracts like Mike Leake. The window looks like it's about closed, so you just throw caution to the wind and screw the consequences because you're about to rebuild anyway.
That's what the Pirates will need to do in a few years, and I've consistently said that. Make their big moves when the farm system is barren and the team is old and you're just trying to extend your window by another year or two. If you make that move too early as a small market team, you become the Reds or Brewers or Twins. Your payroll is maxed out with bad contracts you can't move, and you just sit in small market purgatory where your payroll is like 15th in the majors but your team is terrible and you can't trade anyone because nobody wants the contract (Joey Votto and Homer Bailey).
On the Cubs, they signed Lester to a big deal but they're paying Lackey about what Liriano got from the Pirates and they acquired Jake Arrieta for peanuts in a trade when the Orioles gave up on him. I don't consider Lackey or Arrieta moves to be "go for it" moves, although they've certainly worked out very well. Similar to Cervelli or Kang for the Pirates.
Epstein has also has said they likely won't extend Arrieta, because they don't feel comfortable going 5-6 years on a contract with him. The Cubs, IMO, didn't spend their way to anything. I mean, they're still paying Edwin Jackson almost $14MM this season to be a middle reliever in some other organization's farm system.
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