Path to tourney now

[Sean Miller Fan]

Clemson isnt a bad loss. A split was all we can ask from the last 2. Problem is the NC state loss was bad and put us behind schedule.

The last 10 games are very difficult. We probably make it at 10-8 considering the teams we will have to beat to do that.....but we'll have to sweat out a 7/10 or 8/9 game vs Syr or FSU or someone like that in DC to solidify our spot.....but even with a loss, 20-10 should be enough.

VT and Wake HAVE to be wins.

Need to win 2 out of 3 vs UVa, Lou, Duke

Need to win 1 out of 3 vs @ Syr, @ VT, @ GT

@ Miami and @ UNC are pretty close to guaranteed losses.

Win the next 2 games and we are in good shape. Lose one and the NIT becomes more of a possibility.

 

[Drax1975]

Clemson isnt a bad loss. A split was all we can ask from the last 2. Problem is the NC state loss was bad and put us behind schedule.

The last 10 games are very difficult. We probably make it at 10-8 considering the teams we will have to beat to do that.....but we'll have to sweat out a 7/10 or 8/9 game vs Syr or FSU or someone like that in DC to solidify our spot.....but even with a loss, 20-10 should be enough.

VT and Wake HAVE to be wins.

Need to win 2 out of 3 vs UVa, Lou, Duke

Need to win 1 out of 3 vs @ Syr, @ VT, @ GT

@ Miami and @ UNC are pretty close to guaranteed losses.

Win the next 2 games and we are in good shape. Lose one and the NIT becomes more of a possibility.

That's like asking Penndot to clear snow on the pike the other day.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

That's like asking Penndot to clear snow on the pike the other day.

Its not that bad. We'll be favored over VT and Wake. Very slight favorites over UVa and Duke and maybe very slight favorites over VT and GT on the road depending on what happens between now and then. There's just no room for error. We pretty much have 2 should-be wins to get us to 7, 2 guaranteed losses, and 6 50/50 games, which we have to win 3, 4 to be a lock.

 

[DT_PITT]

Clemson isnt a bad loss. A split was all we can ask from the last 2. Problem is the NC state loss was bad and put us behind schedule.

The last 10 games are very difficult. We probably make it at 10-8 considering the teams we will have to beat to do that.....but we'll have to sweat out a 7/10 or 8/9 game vs Syr or FSU or someone like that in DC to solidify our spot.....but even with a loss, 20-10 should be enough.

VT and Wake HAVE to be wins.

Need to win 2 out of 3 vs UVa, Lou, Duke

Need to win 1 out of 3 vs @ Syr, @ VT, @ GT

@ Miami and @ UNC are pretty close to guaranteed losses.

Win the next 2 games and we are in good shape. Lose one and the NIT becomes more of a possibility.

Pretty reasonable and accurate. The issue is that if we play like we have to the first halfs of the last two games, we could lose to anyone.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pretty reasonable and accurate. The issue is that if we play like we have to the first halfs of the last two games, we could lose to anyone.

Thats true but the constant in these bad first halves is lack of scoring. Our D is bad so we cant continue to have long droughts like we have had. Jamie needs to recognize this early and find ways to maximize scoring like maybe letting Cam come in and chuck a few up.

 

[UPitt '89]

Pretty reasonable and accurate. The issue is that if we play like we have to the first halfs of the last two games, we could lose to anyone.

And if we play like we did the first half of ND or the second half of FSU, we could beat anyone.

Have to let it play out.

 

[DT_PITT]

And if we play like we did the first half of ND or the second half of FSU, we could beat anyone.

Have to let it play out.

Absolutely have to let it play out. There are legit facts on our side.

I'm just more than a little more worried about this team than I'd like to be at the moment.

 

[UPitt '89]

Absolutely have to let it play out. There are legit facts on our side.

I'm just more than a little more worried about this team than I'd like to be at the moment.

it's been a bad two weeks. Teams go through them. Having the next two at the Pete is big. If we can re-find ourselves against VT this Sunday... the atmosphere next Saturday against UVa will be pretty electric.

Our bad two weeks coincided with a bad two weeks for Duke too. Duke has lost 4 of its last 5. Virginia had a bad two weeks right before that. MSU and Purdue too.

The question is... how do you respond after those bad two weeks that almost every team goes through?

 

[gary2]

Pretty reasonable and accurate. The issue is that if we play like we have to the first halfs of the last two games, we could lose to anyone.

First halfs have changed after Dixon's first substitutions. He needs to be better about who he has on the court at the same time. He has been taking Maia out after his 1st foul and bringing Odoba in. I think that is a mistake is the . Leave Maia in until his 2nd foul, then bring in Luther. No Odoba. At this point in the season the rotation should be reduced. Pick your best 7 or 8, define their roles and trust that they produce. The lack of another experienced ball handler really hurts. Wilson is the only option and not a good one. (Milligan does not look like a point either) We are really handcuffed by who Jamie recruited to play guard. Robinson is fine, but if he gets in foul trouble there are no options.

I still see us as +1 on the ACC season. A very good win at ND, a good win at FSU and a bad loss vs NC ST.
I still see us finishing at 10-8 even 9-9 with a win in the ACC tournament would not be all that bad. This league is tough. If people do not think it is, they should ask Duke or Virgina.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

First halfs have changed after Dixon's first substitutions. He needs to be better about who he has on the court at the same time. He has been taking Maia out after his 1st foul and bringing Odoba in. I think that is a mistake is the . Leave Maia in until his 2nd foul, then bring in Luther. No Odoba. At this point in the season the rotation should be reduced. Pick your best 7 or 8, define their roles and trust that they produce. The lack of another experienced ball handler really hurts. Wilson is the only option and not a good one. (Milligan does not look like a point either) We are really handcuffed by who Jamie recruited to play guard. Robinson is fine, but if he gets in foul trouble there are no options.

I still see us as +1 on the ACC season. A very good win at ND, a good win at FSU and a bad loss vs NC ST.
I still see us finishing at 10-8 even 9-9 with a win in the ACC tournament would not be all that bad. This league is tough. If people do not think it is, they should ask Duke or Virgina.

We probably need 11 wins. 11-7 or 10-8 with 1 win in DC. I ran the RPI wizard and 10-8 with a Wed. loss in DC puts us at 45 which is pretty dicey.

 

[Drax1975]

We probably need 11 wins. 11-7 or 10-8 with 1 win in DC. I ran the RPI wizard and 10-8 with a Wed. loss in DC puts us at 45 which is pretty dicey.

11 wins is asking a lot! Not enough talent on this team.

 

[UPitt129]

11 wins is asking a lot! Not enough talent on this team.

Maybe if we had the whole Lincoln park team we would be better?

 

[Pittx9]

Clemson isnt a bad loss. A split was all we can ask from the last 2. Problem is the NC state loss was bad and put us behind schedule.

The last 10 games are very difficult. We probably make it at 10-8 considering the teams we will have to beat to do that.....but we'll have to sweat out a 7/10 or 8/9 game vs Syr or FSU or someone like that in DC to solidify our spot.....but even with a loss, 20-10 should be enough.

VT and Wake HAVE to be wins.

Need to win 2 out of 3 vs UVa, Lou, Duke

Need to win 1 out of 3 vs @ Syr, @ VT, @ GT

@ Miami and @ UNC are pretty close to guaranteed losses.

Win the next 2 games and we are in good shape. Lose one and the NIT becomes more of a possibility.

Agree other than two things. One we need at least 2 out of 3 between syracuse, va tech, and GT. All 3 would be great, but we could probably get by with one slip up. Losing two of those games would be more disaster for this team.
Actually the other thing I don't even disagree with, I just don't think Miami is a top 15 team. 1 out of Miami or UNC would be great, but not likely. I just think we do have somewhat of a chance at Miami. If we do beat Duke and Virginia I think we'll be in good shape. The only game I think is almost a guaranteed loss is Louisville. Pitino just absolutely owns Dixon. Bad matchup for the Panthers.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

11 wins is asking a lot! Not enough talent on this team.

11 including ACCT is doable but man would that Wednesday game be nervy. We better get 11. If not, could be another home NIT game.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

It would be a big help if we win our next 2 home games. If that happens, we can afford to lose both to Miami and UNC.

 

[bobfree]

We are going to drop a game on the road we aren't supposed to I'll guarantee that. But I think we can beat Virginia at home. Probably have to steal one vs Louisville or Duke at home as well.

 

[Zaratoughda]

Clemson isnt a bad loss. A split was all we can ask from the last 2. Problem is the NC state loss was bad and put us behind schedule.

The last 10 games are very difficult. We probably make it at 10-8 considering the teams we will have to beat to do that.....but we'll have to sweat out a 7/10 or 8/9 game vs Syr or FSU or someone like that in DC to solidify our spot.....but even with a loss, 20-10 should be enough.

VT and Wake HAVE to be wins.

Need to win 2 out of 3 vs UVa, Lou, Duke

Need to win 1 out of 3 vs @ Syr, @ VT, @ GT

@ Miami and @ UNC are pretty close to guaranteed losses.

Win the next 2 games and we are in good shape. Lose one and the NIT becomes more of a possibility.

I pretty much agree except... I would say win @Cuse and 1 of 2 vs @VT and @GT. Would not be good to end season on two game losing streak.

I think the one we lose to at home between UVA, Ville and Duke... is Ville.

The loss to NCS was a bad loss but pretty much negated our good win over ND on the road.

However, as one poster on another site pointed out, we still have not beaten any team we did not beat last year. Last year we beat Cuse, GT, ND, BC and FSU.... and we beat all of them again this year but lost to Ville, NCS and Clemson, all of whom we lost to last year.

Hmmm... we better turn things around in the next two games because then it will be 'throw in the towel before the game starts' @Miami and @UNC. Not to say that we fans take that attitude but that is the way the team has been playing in those kind of games.

 

[Drax1975]

Maybe if we had the whole Lincoln park team we would be better?

You talk like a moron.

 

[whirlybird optio]

We are going to drop a game on the road we aren't supposed to I'll guarantee that. But I think we can beat Virginia at home. Probably have to steal one vs Louisville or Duke at home as well.

Outside of BC, it's hard to say that any road game in the ACC are the "supposed to" wins.

Here's the bottom line. Hopefully only lose one more home game. Win at least one more road game.

The key really are the home games. Even if we just win the home games at this point, and don't win another road game, 10 ACC wins with UVA, Duke, and LVille would probably get us in.

The next two games will define our season. If we drop either of these two the path to the dance becomes much harder. Win these two games, and if you somehow beat either Miami or UNC not only are you in the dance, you are a very high seed, maybe as high as a 4/5 seed.

We aren't in terrible shape right now with the volume of wins and the high RPI, but you simply can't lose home games.

 

[bobfree]

Outside of BC, it's hard to say that any road game in the ACC are the "supposed to" wins.

Here's the bottom line. Hopefully only lose one more home game. Win at least one more road game.

The key really are the home games. Even if we just win the home games at this point, and don't win another road game, 10 ACC wins with UVA, Duke, and LVille would probably get us in.

The next two games will define our season. If we drop either of these two the path to the dance becomes much harder. Win these two games, and if you somehow beat either Miami or UNC not only are you in the dance, you are a very high seed, maybe as high as a 4/5 seed.

We aren't in terrible shape right now with the volume of wins and the high RPI, but you simply can't lose home games.

When I said supposed I was referring to win % probability laid out in another thread. We are "supposed" to win at both techs. We will more likely split.

 

[NTOP]

Maybe if we had the whole Lincoln park team we would be better?

Or Simmie Hill??