Penn State opens -19 vs Pitt

[wbrpanther]

We have nothing to lose then, and all the pressure lies on them. Let them keep pounding their chests.

Nothing has changed with their fan base. They are arrogant sh!t heads.

I'll bet our players don't think they are 19 point dogs.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Interestingly, about the same spread versus Michigan-PSU minus 19-ish. Michigan lost 11 guys to the draft, but still....people are putting an awful lot of expectations on one good year.

Harbaugh has two good years and turned it around from day one with Hoke's folks? Still, now Harbaugh has recruited his Folks and now must prove he can coach up a young talented Team in 2017, that barely lost to Iowa, OSU, and FSU in 2016?

We shall see, but Two 10 Win Seasons is pretty good too!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I still have Pitt winning this game because James Franklin is a used car salesman and will never have PSU above 7/8 wins.

Didn't they win 10 games last year?

No. I dont think Rutgers and Maryland count.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Early Games Unknowns and Surprises making a Fiutak's 10-2 or 6-6 Season?

YSU:
Great Test by Pelini that has some NFL Talent as seen in 2017 Draft. It will be a good test and signs of whether Pitt Offense is a continuation of 2016 under Watson & Browne and Defense as well improved? Pitt should win it but like last year won't show all of what Pitt can do it in first game like Nova in 2016.

Penn State:
It is hard to fathom right now how Pitt can possibly beat Joe Moorhead's Offense with so many Great Experienced No Quit Players like QB McSorley, RB Barkley, TE Gesicki all back, healthy, and surrounded by Franklin Recruiting Talent. The Lions will and should score 30-40+ points every game. The Franklin's Comeback Lions have gotten use to 2016 Revenge Games. They proved it by beating Great Coaches in Meyers, Ferentz, and Dantonio, and just missed beating PITT early and USC later by losing just by 3?

So, Pitt has to be consistent on Offense again from 2016 and better on Defense as the Big Surprise in Beaver Stadium. If not the New Lion Recruiting Whisperer Franklin is on Coach More-Head Hunting Sprees taking No Prisoners. Franklin has yet to beat Panthers, Wolverines and Wildcats with Three Coaches in Fitzgerald, Harbaugh, and Narduzzi.

Think he can't do it, just ask after destroying Ferentz's Hawk-Eyes blinded all game long, Dantonio's Spartans after Half-Time running up the score for 2015 reprisals, and the Big Bushwhacking of Ohio State's Choking Buckeyes with Meyers that brought out rioting again in State College, and don't forget how Wisky's Badgers fell apart in Nittany Lions playing just Two Quarters Ambushing Alvarez's Savior in Chryst?

The Nittany Lions has two big things going for them making them hard to beat in 2017. The First is Moorhead wants a Top CFB Power Conference Head Football Coach job, maybe Tennessee, A&M, Arizona State, BC, Arizona, NCS, Rutgers, & maybe even Notre Dame?

Secondly, Franklin is just not wanting but will be demanding his Players cut off Harbaugh, Narduzzi, and Fitzgerald's Coaching Heads for Retaliation of 2015-16 losses. The Nittany Lions will be reminded when they are preparing not just a One Game Revenge but a Penn State Is Back Program Reckoning after Paterno left it in shaming its name, but still remains a Powerful Program even better under Franklin and with Athletic Integrity now!

Pitt has to have many Surprises just to Survive at a "Great Beaver White Out" with Nittany Lions looking for more "Beaver Wood Sticks" to smack Pitt Panthers around for costing them the 2016 CFB Playoff Invite? One way to beat PSU in 2017 is to hit on McSorley every play and Big Ten Coaches know it. Good luck with that, McSorley took many hits in 2016 and survived them all, he is not just "Trace The QB Ace With His Salute," but one of the most confident and toughest CFB ever produced, he has the big thighs to take any hit, and reminds me of Joe Montana, just gets back up, and looks focused on the next play!

Pitt has so little done and so much to more to do in rebuilding its program. Still, if Narduzzzi and other Big Ten Coaches do adjust to Moorhead-McSorley-Barkley offense in 2017 and Franklin is left with 7-5 or 8-4 season, unlike in 2017 when Recruits started to flock to 11-3 Lions, they will jump some Ships, but don't count on anything less than 10 wins with a Healthy McSorley! Admiring his QB Play is not a vice and the Penn State Program as well.

Oklahoma State:
Mike Gundy has an Offense but not so sure about a Defense in 2017? The Cowboys do have its QB & Wideouts all back in 2017, but the OKST Defensive Backfield will have 3 New DBs Starters? "IF" Pitt OC Watson and QB Browne are as good as they sound together, Pitt can win that shoot out this time at Home? Pitt DL must get to Rudolph and Pitt DB's have to cover OKST Wideouts, if not then Pitt loses another shoot out not by much again?

Georgia Tech:
Anyone preparing for a GT's Johnson Yellow-Jackets game has to be ready with Great Game Plans combined with Precise Game Day Execution. Pitt might have it if they are 3-0 or 2-1 and if not 1-2 could become 1-3 like Fiutak says could happen. Johnson Players will be ready and if you don't believe it just ask SEC's Georgia, Kentucky, Vandy and ACC's VT losing to them in 2016, and Pitt barely beat GT in 2015-16, by no means a sure win?

Peak and Fiutak will have more to say about Pitt 2017 in August! I am just guessing with some hopeful Hunches for 2017, and as usual some Fears of whether Pitt is over achieving like in 2015 or just warming up for bigger wins like seen in 2016?

Either way, others know more than my hopes, guesses, hunches and fears.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Blowout? Pitt football opens as 19-point underdogs against Penn State
Last year, Pitt opened as a big nine-point favorite against Penn State for their football game later in the year. When that line first dropped, I cautioned that it was too high and Vegas seemingly agreed. By the week of the game, that line was cut in half, falling to Pitt -4.5....It's also somewhat ironic that Pitt was a 19-point underdog against Clemson last year, too. So just throwing that out there.................The Panthers going on the road to take down undefeated Clemson last year doesn't seem to have done much to persuade folks that Pitt can win in hostile environments...............
5 comments
by CardiacHill@AnsonWhaley May 30, 2017, 10:32am EDT
LINK:
http://www.cardiachill.com/2017/5/3...ling-spread-pittsburgh-panthers-nittany-lions

 

[pittengineer75]

Line is easily there to suck in the common PSU football fan, that actually knows absolutely nothing about college football other than PSU. Rebuilding season for Pitt, but really so was last year. PSU really didnt even have a win of note last season and this has a little touch of the common "Big 10 Hoax" at play (conference is typically one of the worst conference once they have to play a solid to good to OOC, look at their bowls last year for example).

 

[jimmcfurdy]

Line is easily there to suck in the common PSU football fan, that actually knows absolutely nothing about college football other than PSU. Rebuilding season for Pitt, but really so was last year. PSU really didnt even have a win of note last season and this has a little touch of the common "Big 10 Hoax" at play (conference is typically one of the worst conference once they have to play a solid to good to OOC, look at their bowls last year for example).

The line is there so the books don't lose money for those who do bet. Nothing more.

 

[H2Pittisit]

Line is easily there to suck in the common PSU football fan, that actually knows absolutely nothing about college football other than PSU. Rebuilding season for Pitt, but really so was last year. PSU really didnt even have a win of note last season and this has a little touch of the common "Big 10 Hoax" at play (conference is typically one of the worst conference once they have to play a solid to good to OOC, look at their bowls last year for example).

That line will suck in More of our fans IMO. A lower line would suck in Penn State fans.

 

[PittMan2003]

As a penn state fan that line is way too high. Have to imagine it has to do with Booksers suspension and I believe u lost a dlinemen to injury? If you want to make some more easy money they have Michigan +14 vs PSU.

I agree. I was thinking 13ish but with taleni and possible bookser out I can see why it is high.

 

[Chescat]

Interesting thoughts in this thread. What is obvious to me is the roles are reversed this year.
Last year we were VERY experienced on offense; QB, OLine, Connor, Orndoff plus
Henderson vs a young, inexperienced PSU defense that had a few injuries.
This year they're experienced on offense; QB, Barkley, their very good TE, and an improved
OLine. Their D has some question marks but so does ours (understatement LOL).
Last year we had the home field advantage and it definitely helped IMO. This year they
have the home field.
Last year we had a big "chip" on our shoulder, this year chip or no chip, PSU wants this
game bad, REAL bad...especially after last year. I'm not predicting at this point but I feel
some of our posters are underestimating them and their talent level.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Can't think of many things more useless than September betting lines in May. About as bad as preseason top 25 rankings in April.

 

[Delpanther]

UPS should be about a 9 point favorite. They're not dominant on either LOS.

 

[DT_PITT]

That number is way, way too high.

The best part of your assertion here is that if it is way too high, you know it will fall quickly if all the money is going on the Panthers +19.

 

[michnittlion]

Can't think of many things more useless than September betting lines in May. About as bad as preseason top 25 rankings in April.

I agree that it's kind of silly. It's college football. 25% of rosters turn over annually. Teams always surprise. Who the hell knows in May?

But from the casino POV, the line has utility. It's primarily about publicity (being first to put out a line!), and the incremental revenue of getting folk to bet other stuff.

"Mike Smith" is in Vegas, he hears/reads about South Point casino putting this game on the board. Since he's a PSU/Pittsburgh alum, off he goes to visit the casino.

Since he's already there, he also puts down $100 on Game 1 of Cavs/Warriors. And a $25 flyer future bet on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl.

Winner: South Point Casino.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Another View From Vegas Excerpt:

CFB: My top five season win-total bets
SportsLine expert Josh Nagel is an amazing 14-3-1 on season win-total bets the past two years. What are his Top 5 plays in 2017?


Josh Nagel
@JoshNagel1
Staff Analyst

May 25, 4:56PM EDT
If you want to start winning money on college football right now, listen to Josh Nagel. He is an amazing 14-3-1 on season win-total bets the past two years and he's pouncing on five 2017 win totals just released in Vegas. We'll give one of them away here, and that's to go Under on Penn States's total of 9.5 wins. Nagel says a three-game stretch against Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State means Penn State could struggle to even get to nine wins...
LINK:
http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25804273/cfb-my-top-five-season-win-total-bets/

 

[pittengineer75]

That line will suck in More of our fans IMO. A lower line would suck in Penn State fans.

PSU fans think it is already low at -19 and they already are prepared to win a national championship after going undefeated with no score closer than 40.

 

[chethejet]

PSU QB puts it up for grabs far to much. Also I have a gut feeling the schedule is harder than they have played in years and will find things difficult. Teams will be up for them this year and being a target and quite frankly teams getting up for them is new. I take the 19 since the D for PS is Ok at best.

 

[djbpitt]

Southpoint posted the first numbers for games of the year in Las Vegas today.

Seems a little high to me, expected it to come out around 16 or so.

Simmer down, everyone, simmer down.

Do remember that the line is just a measurement in time. It means that, as of late May, one oddsmaker thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Penn State will win by that margin, and a 50 percent chance that they won't.

A line is merely a way to attract roughly 50 percent of wagers for and against. It isn't necessarily predictive of one team winning by that much.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Southpoint posted the first numbers for games of the year in Las Vegas today.

Seems a little high to me, expected it to come out around 16 or so.

Prior to the first game of the three game series I risked a few Franklins on the entire three game series. Some I'm up !

We bet a Franklin a game and there's five Nitter creeps and me the lone PITT fan.
No points, straight up, for all three games.

IMO we'll win game two and if recruiting says on track and our stars dont continue to audition for the show Cops we might win all three games!

I also think the Nitters used up all their college football luck last year with OSU up 21-7 with around 12 mins to go in the 4th and the Nitters punt deep from their own territory, OSU gets the ball around the Nitter 48 yard line and OSU loses the game?????????????
Wisconsin played poorly against them and Godwin saved them in a few games with remarkable catches to keep drives alive and scoring TD's.
No Godwin this year!
The Nitters will end up 9-3 maybe 8-4 and one of the losses will be PITT.

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

Simmer down, everyone, simmer down.

Do remember that the line is just a measurement in time. It means that, as of late May, one oddsmaker thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Penn State will win by that margin, and a 50 percent chance that they won't.

A line is merely a way to attract roughly 50 percent of wagers for and against. It isn't necessarily predictive of one team winning by that much.

I'm not exactly simmering over a 3 month early line on an OOC game, but certainly hope the coaches and players think that this is way too high, and "simmer up" their prep and motivation appropriately. Right now, channel it into maniacal conditioning (players) and razor sharp schemes and effort in recruiting (coaches). After July, focus on having a monster camp.

 

[jimmcfurdy]

Simmer down, everyone, simmer down.

Do remember that the line is just a measurement in time. It means that, as of late May, one oddsmaker thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Penn State will win by that margin, and a 50 percent chance that they won't.

A line is merely a way to attract roughly 50 percent of wagers for and against. It isn't necessarily predictive of one team winning by that much.

I get tired of trying to explain this to those who don't know how it works. It's merely a means of bookies ensuring they don't take a bath.

 

[Cathedral Lawn Frisbee]

Correct and since there are 15 times more PSU fans the spread will stay high unless people bet on PITT. This is not an indication of where someone thinks the score will be. Evening the bet and taking their fee i.e vigorish

 

[ratking17]

Wasn't the line at pitt -12 for the psu game at this point. In the end I think it fell to -4

 

[chethejet]

Pitt returns 7 players on offense who started games for Pitt. Both JC and Pederman were not the players they were later in the year. Put that offense that beat Clemson against the nits and Pitt scores 60.Pitt replaces QB with Browne, Clark at TE, a healthy Hall and Moss at RB and still big play ability in Weah and Henderson. What has PSU done to improve the D that gave up 52 to USC....really nothing. But there will be improvement for the Nits due to maturity and experience. However Pitt adds Hendrix, Zeise, a healthy JW, P Ford, Hamlin, Brightwell with experience to the D. That is big improvement.

 

[BFo8]

These early numbers are basically put out for publicity and are about as soft as you can get.

I think they're only taking dimes on these and if a known player comes in they will move aggressively.

 

[BFo8]

Simmer down, everyone, simmer down.

Do remember that the line is just a measurement in time. It means that, as of late May, one oddsmaker thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Penn State will win by that margin, and a 50 percent chance that they won't.

A line is merely a way to attract roughly 50 percent of wagers for and against. It isn't necessarily predictive of one team winning by that much.

Actually this is not the way it works in Las Vegas or offshore. With all the parlays, parlay cards, halftimes, and especially the explosion of in game wagering it is not really possible to balance your action 50-50.

Money doesn't really drive the number in bigger markets, it's who is making the bet. If Floyd Mayweather walks into the M Resort this morning and bets 1 million on the Warriors -7, that number ain't moving. Books don't move odds off square money and he is about as square as you can get.

Conversely a known wiseguy could walk in 5 minutes later and bet 10k on the Cavs +7 and they would probably go to 6.5, even though they were war heavy with Warriors money.

 

[Scruffy the Panther]

That number is way, way too high.

It's like they forgot James Franklin was the head coach of Penn State.

 

[Big Marty1]

The Carnival Barker is coaching in this game against Duzz, not PC. I'm betting on Pitt if it's a pick email. Can't wait .

 

[DruidTM]

This frankly gives Pitt all the momentum and none of the pressure

That spread is ridiculous

 

[California Panther]

Prior to the first game of the three game series I risked a few Franklins on the entire three game series. Some I'm up !

We bet a Franklin a game and there's five Nitter creeps and me the lone PITT fan.
No points, straight up, for all three games.

IMO we'll win game two and if recruiting says on track and our stars dont continue to audition for the show Cops we might win all three games!

It is a 4-game series.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Pitt returns 7 players on offense who started games for Pitt. Both JC and Pederman were not the players they were later in the year. Put that offense that beat Clemson against the nits and Pitt scores 60.Pitt replaces QB with Browne, Clark at TE, a healthy Hall and Moss at RB and still big play ability in Weah and Henderson. What has PSU done to improve the D that gave up 52 to USC....really nothing. But there will be improvement for the Nits due to maturity and experience. However Pitt adds Hendrix, Zeise, a healthy JW, P Ford, Hamlin, Brightwell with experience to the D. That is big improvement.

What Pitt Defense Will Be Up Against In 2017, One Analysis:
Penn State Going 10-2 Or Better!
Could Penn State have the best offense in America in 2017? It’s not that crazy
By the end of the 2016 season, Penn State possessed 1 of the most exciting offenses in the nation. After toppling No. 2-ranked Ohio State on Oct. 22, the Nittany Lions scored at least 38 points in each of their final 7 games. They had the best offensive performance of the season, according to Bill Connelly’s percentile rankings, by any team against Iowa, Wisconsin and Southern Cal...............Establishing some real depth behind Gesicki to get him a rest on a few plays and provide insurance is one. Finding ways to get sophomore RB Miles Sanders more involved without diminishing Barkley’s impact is another. The talent is in place. Penn State has as much proven experience returning on offense as anyone who had an excellent offense in 2016.....
LINK:
https://www.landof10.com/penn-state/penn-state-best-offense-america-2017-not-crazy

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

What Pitt Defense Will Be Up Against In 2017, One Analysis:
Penn State Going 10-2 Or Better!
Could Penn State have the best offense in America in 2017? It’s not that crazy
By the end of the 2016 season, Penn State possessed 1 of the most exciting offenses in the nation. After toppling No. 2-ranked Ohio State on Oct. 22, the Nittany Lions scored at least 38 points in each of their final 7 games. They had the best offensive performance of the season, according to Bill Connelly’s percentile rankings, by any team against Iowa, Wisconsin and Southern Cal...............Establishing some real depth behind Gesicki to get him a rest on a few plays and provide insurance is one. Finding ways to get sophomore RB Miles Sanders more involved without diminishing Barkley’s impact is another. The talent is in place. Penn State has as much proven experience returning on offense as anyone who had an excellent offense in 2016.....
LINK:
https://www.landof10.com/penn-state/penn-state-best-offense-america-2017-not-crazy

The Other View why 7-6 or 8-5 Could Happen:
The Penn State Offense Needs to Become More Efficient in 2017
...........That being said, every offense has its flaws, and Joe Moorhead's tuddies battalion is no different. For all of its entertainment and success in 2016, the Penn State offense was very below average when it came to efficiency. According to Bill Connelly's S&P+ ratings, the Lions ranked No. 80 in the country when it came to offensive efficiency (as defined below) in 2016.......But the bottom line, is that while Penn State's offense was ridiculously explosive, they likely won't be able to live off of Trace McSorley tossing up deep balls for his receivers to makes plays on for a second season in a row.......But there are a few things working against Penn State in that regard.........Secondly, teams are going to have a full offseason to review tape of the Penn State offense- and you better believe they will use every minute they have to do so. Moorhead's offense caught a lot of teams by surprise in 2016, but many of the teams on the 2017 schedule will be seeing his offense for the second year in a row.
LINK:
http://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-s...osive-trace-mcsorley-barkley-bill-c-sb-nation

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

How can Penn State avoid slow starts in 2017?
Penn State’s run of comeback victories in 2016 will long live on in Nittany Lions lore. And James Franklin and his coaching staff deserve plenty of credit for consistently coming up with halftime adjustments that left the other sideline perplexed and dismayed.........Of course, the other side to that is the fact Penn State so often found itself digging out of an early hole. You can bet it might spare more than a few nerves in Happy Valley this fall if the Nittany Lions manage to get off to a fast start more often. So this offseason has likely been spent, at least in part, devising ways to get started quicker. Had the Nittany Lions simply not fallen behind Pitt by three touchdowns in the second quarter of what turned out to be a 42-39 loss last season, the Nittany Lions might have been in line for a spot in the College Football Playoff......To that end, taking care of the ball early in games should be a huge focus. In the Pitt loss, two of the Panthers’ first four touchdowns came after fumbles by quarterback Trace McSorley.......Perhaps so many experienced players coming back on offense will reduce those instances for Penn State during the coming season. McSorley returns with a veteran’s mentality and soaring confidence after rising to star level in the weeks following the Pitt loss.......
LINK:
https://www.fanragsports.com/cfb/can-penn-state-avoid-slow-starts-2017/

 

[BuffetParrothead]

It is a 4-game series.

Yes it is!
I guess I'm focused on the next three.
Up one need one more to breakeven!

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

The Pitt-Penn State football game on Sept. 9 in State College will kick off at 3:30 p.m. and will be televised nationally on ABC, Pitt announced Wednesday. Three other game times on Pitt’s 12-game schedule were also announced, including a noon start for the Sept. 16 home game against Oklahoma State. That game will be televised on either ABC or ESPN2.
LINK:
http://www.timesonline.com/sports/c...258d4bac-4635-11e7-96b7-f7764b4bffc9.htmlhttp:

 

[Panther Parrothead]

Interesting thoughts in this thread. What is obvious to me is the roles are reversed this year.
Last year we were VERY experienced on offense; QB, OLine, Connor, Orndoff plus
Henderson vs a young, inexperienced PSU defense that had a few injuries.
This year they're experienced on offense; QB, Barkley, their very good TE, and an improved
OLine. Their D has some question marks but so does ours (understatement LOL).
Last year we had the home field advantage and it definitely helped IMO. This year they
have the home field.
Last year we had a big "chip" on our shoulder, this year chip or no chip, PSU wants this
game bad, REAL bad...especially after last year. I'm not predicting at this point but I feel
some of our posters are underestimating them and their talent level.

I agree. The Nits return a lot of starters, and we can't ignore the fact that Franklin has recruited well for several consecutive years. And maybe, just maybe, this will be the year when the Nit fandom will quit crying about the "horrible impact" that The Sanctions had on their program.

 

[CaptainSidneyReilly]

Right now I think the Line is too low and should be in 20s! Penn State is coming off B1G Championship beating Wisky, Top Ten Finish, and Great USC-PSU Bowl Game and most of their Best Players are Back!
Penn State also have More 4 & (5)* Stars Recruiting Comparison
4 PSU 2014 PITT 2 (1)* 3
10 PSU 2015 PITT 3
6 PSU 2016 PITT 5
10 (1)* PSU 2017 PITT 3
Penn State Doubles Pitt 4 Star Recruiting:
31 (1*)-30 Penn State
14 (1*)-13 Pitt
Coach Franklin has the Higher Rankings Recruiting Talent By Stars!

16 Penn State Players Back From 11-3 Record Beating 2 Top Ten Ranked Teams!
11 Pitt Players Back from 8-5 Record Beating 2 Top Ten Ranked Teams!
Penn State 2016 OCC & Big-10 Overrated Top 25 & More Bottom Feeders!
Pitt 2016 OCC & ACC Best W-L & Against Better Coaches Than Big Ten!

1 Penn State Consensus All American
1 Pitt Unanimous Consensus All American

This will be the test on Narduzzi-Franklin at Beaver Stadium on who has the better Coaching, Game Plans, and Game Execution.
0 Penn State New Coaches
2 Pitt New coaches OC & DL
Penn State has more Starters Back and only 1 WR & DE Gone!
Pitt has unknowns in QB, TE, OL, DL, LB, and DB!
6 Top Players NFL Drafted Gone
1 Top Players NFL Drafted Gone

In all Analysis Right Now Penn State Should Have -19+ Line! Franklin has many advantages over Narduzzi in 2017. This is the Big Test Between Narduzzi Coaching & Franklin's Recruiting!

We shall see in less than 100 days!

 

[H2Pittisit]

Pitt returns 7 players on offense who started games for Pitt. Both JC and Pederman were not the players they were later in the year. Put that offense that beat Clemson against the nits and Pitt scores 60.Pitt replaces QB with Browne, Clark at TE, a healthy Hall and Moss at RB and still big play ability in Weah and Henderson. What has PSU done to improve the D that gave up 52 to USC....really nothing. But there will be improvement for the Nits due to maturity and experience. However Pitt adds Hendrix, Zeise, a healthy JW, P Ford, Hamlin, Brightwell with experience to the D. That is big improvement.

So you are saying Pitt will get big improvements from a bunch of unknowns but Penn State has done nothing to improve...makes sense...sounds objective lol

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

No. I dont think Rutgers and Maryland count.

The ACC Coastal isn't exactly murderers row.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

It can be PSU -39. I don't care. It does not make a difference once the ball is kicked off.