Pitt +10.5 at Miami

[WannyandWalt]

Remember the offense could do nothing two years ago in Miami because the O-line was banged up?

Two years later the line appears just as bad. Miami was so mediocre that year and is much better now.

This one will get ugly. Thanks again for this revised schedule, ACC. Two middle fingers from me but Pitt is just thankful for the checks so it just takes the hits and keeps quiet.

So the other ACC teams are not doing the same ? Cop-out

 

[LeftCoastPanther]

So the other ACC teams are not doing the same ? Cop-out

Doing what?

 

[WVUinColumbus]

I bet Pitt +10.5. Think they really keep it close and have a chance to win. They have a nice defense.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

The line started at Miami -9.5 and now is -13.5.

 

[Dointhatrag]

Pitt 23-17

 

[BFo8]

The line started at Miami -9.5 and now is -13.5.

I‘m assuming most of the big move today is related to Pickett’s status.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

I‘m assuming most of the big move today is related to Pickett’s status.

There were rumblings earlier in the week.

 

[Pitt1975]

I‘m assuming most of the big move today is related to Pickett’s status.

I think it would more than that, if Pickett isn’t playing. He is worth more than 4 points.

 

[Panther_in_Kentucky]

Pitt will play because he knows his understudies are better than he is and he'll limp around and be ineffective.

Jason Pinnock will have 30 balls thrown his way. Do you think Miami's coaches haven't noticed where the weakness is on Pitt's Defense? If U of L, Syracuse, BC and NC State exploited it BIG TIME Miami will make it look ridiculous.

The Gym Teacher will stand there with a confused look on his face watching.

Miami 42 - Pitt 6, Ala Carson Long, Kessman will make 2 - 50+ yard FG's after Miami puts up 42 points.

Funny, I used to love fall Saturday's.

 

[BFo8]

I think it would more than that, if Pickett isn’t playing. He is worth more than 4 points.

You’d be surprised how few points players are worth. Obviously QB’s are by far the most, even more so in college as the drop off to the backup is usually precipitous, but it’s not nearly what people think. If it was me and Pickett was out I would adjust my numbers maybe 5.5 points or so for Yellen, a little more for Beville.

I guess my point is there must be some indications that he either won’t play or will be severely limited if he does, as lines don’t generally move 3+ points on one midweek day off of nothing. It is almost certainly information based.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

You’d be surprised how few points players are worth.

There was a story on one of the national web sites a few years ago where they talked to a couple of the guys in Vegas. At that time I think there were two players in the whole NFL that were worth seven points on their own, and that was Tom Brady and (iirc) Aaron Rogers. Most NFL quarterbacks were "worth" 3 or 4 points. Some were "worth" essentially nothing. And I think the consensus was that there wasn't any non-quarterback in the whole league who was "worth" 3 points.

 

[BFo8]

There was a story on one of the national web sites a few years ago where they talked to a couple of the guys in Vegas. At that time I think there were two players in the whole NFL that were worth seven points on their own, and that was Tom Brady and (iirc) Aaron Rogers. Most NFL quarterbacks were "worth" 3 or 4 points. Some were "worth" essentially nothing. And I think the consensus was that there wasn't any non-quarterback in the whole league who was "worth" 3 points.

A few years back when Gronkowski had been absolutely tearing up the league but was questionable for the Super Bowl the media was asking how much would him sitting affect the pointspread and were all shocked when bookmakers told them that it wouldn’t. This was before widespread legalization when the media was especially clueless and I remember the incredulous looks on their faces thinking that couldn’t possibly be right.

Even for the couple NFL QB’s adjusted 7 or slightly more that has become an almost automatic wiseguy play to bet on the 2nd string QB and the number trickles down a little by gameday.