Pitt at UNC
- Thread starter Dointhatrag
- Start date
I wouldn't touch that line with a 40-foot pole. UNC could come out inspired and play like their season depends on this game or they could go into the tank and quit. It's anybody's guess.
their coach is checked out .. I think the team is too. I'm usually worried about these games but if it's a track meet, Pitt wins easily.
I like that the weather looks like it will be clear and beautiful. Have to think a slog fest would benefit the Heels.
I'm still suspect on the defense but the back seven (with two stud LBs) gives me optimism.
the offense has real playmakers. they're loaded. the O Line just needs to keep improving. Pitt can score with anyone
Yeah, I heard they were checked out in 2017. 1-9, 6-game losing streak, boring Thursday night game in a chilly northern city.
Final score: UNC 34 - Pitt 31
Then I heard BC, with its lame duck coach, was checked out in 2019. BC 26 - Pitt 19, and AJ Dillon may still be running.
I bet WVU in 2007 and Miami in 2017 heard similar things about Pitt. Maybe Clemson in 2016 did as well, as we had just gotten throttled in Miami.
Hope we come to play Saturday. UNC probably has more talent than any team we have faced thus far.
I think Pitt's offense is a work in progress. They got the job done in crunch time against their 2 real opponents, but it sure didn't come easy.
Yeah the LBers are super athletic. No wonder they didn’t flinch at DeShields and Kamara leaving. It would be nice if they got more penetration from the front 4 though. I think the potential is there. Fortunately UNC’s D has not been that great either. I agree there should be some points scored by both teams.
I'm well aware of the recent history of our program .. hence my comment saying "I'm usually worried about these games"
The onslaught of points at the end of the games have helped hide the fact that according to the analytics, the offense is pretty average.
F+ has it 52.
The weekly EPA rate I post every week has it basically dead center on the average line.
It’s just the wave of points in a small time frame makes it look exciting. But the computers are looking at it and saying, “it’s great you scored 28 against the Bearcats. That’s about what an average to bad offense would score too.”
new OC, QB, RB, WRs .. the eye test says it can be very explosive. If you want to dig into analytics of the 1st 4 games, that's fine, but it's certainly misleading.
Interesting. I assume they're also factoring efficiency into that, as one would think our offense would score more with the amount of plays we strive to run vs how many the average team might run.
But yeah - we went the whole first half against Cincy and most of the second half against WVU without scoring an offensive TD, and if WVU doesn't play a jump ball into what amounted to triple coverage about as bad as a team could play it, then we might be singing a different tune.
I like our offense, but it seems fair to suggest there is more to prove.
That’s not misleading.
Of course there are reasons why it’s average. And average is an amazing improvement over last year. Massive improvement.
But there’s no evidence the offense can “score with anyone” as was claimed. It’s been an average offense up to this point this year. Which is great.
typed by someone who apparently did not watch the second half of their game against Duke...
UNC could come out inspired and play like their season depends on this game...not sure how that makes them not suck...if they did not choose to get inspired by getting embarrassed by James Madison I'm not sure how inspired they will be when their fans are booing them and chanting for their coach to be canned...
Yeah.
All analytic models adjust for pace of play and opponent quality.
So if your offense hits an explosive play once out of every 5 plays run, but only has 3 explosive plays the entire game because your defense is being Paul Johnson death marched for almost entire quarters of the game, the analytics still see your offense is extremely explosive.
again, analytically speaking, you're correct. If that's how you want to look at it, that's great. You're looking at it in a vacuum, though.
I'm giving them slack with the variables. You're not.
The offense has been much better than anyone could have expected. They've still got work to do, and are still learning a new system with a young QB.
There's plenty of reason to believe they will continue getting better. Analytic models are data points that can't account for any of this.
Edit: That being said, this game concerns me for several reasons.
There's plenty of reason to believe they will continue getting better. Analytic models are data points that can't account for any of this.
Edit: That being said, this game concerns me for several reasons.
I did watch the second half of that game. I also watched every Pitt game last season, including the game against Louisville when they played like their hair was on fire and looked like a completely different team from the games before it. College football teams are fickle, man.
Huh?
It’s not a question of giving them slack or not.
As I said, the offense has been even better than one could have reasonably expected. It has gone from 112 to 52. That’s insane in one offseason.
But objectively speaking, it’s also not an offense that can just score with anyone.
There is no context or slack needed. If you run the 40 in 4.8 seconds with one leg, that’s amazing. It just doesn’t mean you are fast enough to run with anybody.
If you don't think the offense can improve from the 1st 4 games, I don't know what to tell you.
I hear you, but the most telling UNC score right now is JMU 70, UNC 50. 53-21 at the half.
To the extent UNC has talent, it's certainly not on the defensive side of the ball.
Of course that's true, but the question isn't "can it", it's "will it". And those are two different things.
17 against Minnesota and 21 against Duke isn't bad, though. I definitely hear what you're saying, and defense has been their Achilles Heel for most of the Brown era. I just think 70 against JMU is very likely an aberration that has our fans thinking this game will be way easier than it might be. I remember when they gave up 61 to Appalachian State. That didn't help us much that season, as we put up 24 on them.
I don’t believe there isn’t a single team in the country that can’t improve on the metrics.
Even teams ranked 1 in a category, can improve by the margin in which they are ranked 1.
ok but I'm wrong because I think they can improve more than you think they can? and you're basing that off of what? EPA? Like I said, I think they have explosive playmakers on offense. Any given game they have a very high ceiling. If it's a shoot out, I'll take Pitt's chances.
You’re arguing something entirely different than me.
If you want to argue that at some point in the season, the offense can get to point where it can score on anyone, that’s fine.
I was merely agreeing with the poster that stated that isn’t the case now, and it’s a work in progress. As that is shown by the metrics I cited.
Anything else you’re saying, I don’t have a response to, because I didn’t take a position on.
They've been in the top 5 of the ACC in recruiting since 2019. For years we've heard, from some on this board, how they elevated their recruiting and were going to be a problem. All this while Pitt was recruiting MAC players.
I don't think it's a stretch to assume their roster on the whole is more talented than Pitt. Whether or not they are coached, and fit their systems well, is likely a different story.
Like other boomers, I don't understand metrics, but through 4 games there seems to be much room for improvement. This is said even after 2 exciting come from behind victories aganing Power 4 teams. They need to put 4 quarters of offense together before I would suggest anything about "being able to score with anyone".
If Eli can get to a point where he trusts the play call and his teamates to be in the spots the play is designed to put them, and most importantly, can remain calm enough to not overthrow or mis-fire, then they will be on the way to being able to do the above.
I also think we need to tap the brakes a bit as Reid has been outstanding and thrilling but he's one good hit from injury and I haven't seen anything out of Davis or Carter (against Power 4 opponents) to think the running game wouldn't skip a beat without Reid. Seems like he's been slow to get up at some point in each of the 3 games he's played.
As for the NC game, if Pitt lets them hang around till the 4th quarter, NC's talent could put them over the top. On the other hand, if Pitt can take a 14-17 point lead early I could see NC starting doubt their chances.
If Eli can get to a point where he trusts the play call and his teamates to be in the spots the play is designed to put them, and most importantly, can remain calm enough to not overthrow or mis-fire, then they will be on the way to being able to do the above.
I also think we need to tap the brakes a bit as Reid has been outstanding and thrilling but he's one good hit from injury and I haven't seen anything out of Davis or Carter (against Power 4 opponents) to think the running game wouldn't skip a beat without Reid. Seems like he's been slow to get up at some point in each of the 3 games he's played.
As for the NC game, if Pitt lets them hang around till the 4th quarter, NC's talent could put them over the top. On the other hand, if Pitt can take a 14-17 point lead early I could see NC starting doubt their chances.
Remember Mark Twain's line - "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics".
I've been to 3 games at that God awful stadium - 1979, 2016 and 2018 - and almost died from the heat at every one - and we lost every one on complete ball busters.
I will *never* go there again.
They put the opposing team and fans right in the sun and it can be beyond brutal. This Saturday looks like low to mid 80's though.
Other than Penn St., I hate UNC the worst by far - fans are arrogant just like PSU as well.
I just hope we can get them down early and they'll quit - if not, my concern is the defense and it might become a track meet.
But if Des and Eli play the entire game, we'll win and we might win big.
Pitt 48 - UNC 31.
I will *never* go there again.
They put the opposing team and fans right in the sun and it can be beyond brutal. This Saturday looks like low to mid 80's though.
Other than Penn St., I hate UNC the worst by far - fans are arrogant just like PSU as well.
I just hope we can get them down early and they'll quit - if not, my concern is the defense and it might become a track meet.
But if Des and Eli play the entire game, we'll win and we might win big.
Pitt 48 - UNC 31.
Oh please. You'd be citing National Enquirer headlines if they supported your position on something.
I am concerned about UNC RB that's for sure... dude is a different animal. AJ Dillon like style attack on the ground, and I truly don't know if UNC runs him 25+ times how Pitt will stop it. UNC will win if they slow this game down to a time of possesion offensive approach. I'm not overly concerned with the QB's ability to make consistent throws.
It will definitely be a contrast in game management for sure - I think Pitt will have their successes on offense, but I need to see more consistency.
It will definitely be a contrast in game management for sure - I think Pitt will have their successes on offense, but I need to see more consistency.
