Pitt ranking & seeding dichotomy

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt 25 in both human polls but remains lowly seeded by those projecting the brackets. Pitt fell in Palm’s latest projections from the highest 9 seed to the lowest. Bracket matrix has Pitt as a 10 seed in the top bye slot. It’s hard to fathom that with 2 games left in the regular season and being ranked, Pitt is still one ND road loss away from being back on the bubble. I’m not sure there has been a final week game meaning this much this century. Win and clinch a share of the ACC title, double bye and a tourney spot and a favorable ACCT seeding. Lose and face the possibility of finishing 5th and likely having to win a Weds ACCT game (which today would be VT but likely will be either FSU or GT) and then play Duke in the quarters.

 

[UPitt '89]

Rankings are nice... but they have nothing to do with tournament seeding.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt 25 in both human polls but remains lowly seeded by those projecting the brackets. Pitt fell in Palm’s latest projections from the highest 9 seed to the lowest. Bracket matrix has Pitt as a 10 seed in the top bye slot. It’s hard to fathom that with 2 games left in the regular season and being ranked, Pitt is still one ND road loss away from being back on the bubble. I’m not sure there has been a final week game meaning this much this century. Win and clinch a share of the ACC title, double bye and a tourney spot and a favorable ACCT seeding. Lose and face the possibility of finishing 5th and likely having to win a Weds ACCT game (which today would be VT but likely will be either FSU or GT) and then play Duke in the quarters.

Worst-case scenario is you lose to ND and Miami, get the 5 and lose to VT/FSU. Like you said, we could go from playing for the ACC Championship to missing the NCAAT. I think that even if we lose to ND, we are in if we lose to Miami and get the double bye because that 1st ACCT would be vs Duke or NC State which isnt a bad loss.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Worst-case scenario is you lose to ND and Miami, get the 5 and lose to VT/FSU. Like you said, we could go from playing for the ACC Championship to missing the NCAAT. I think that even if we lose to ND, we are in if we lose to Miami and get the double bye because that 1st ACCT would be vs Duke or NC State which isnt a bad loss.

Yeah we need to root for NC State to beat Duke Tuesday and clinch the double bye. Probably root for UVA against Clemson to protect our UVA Q1 win and knock Clemson further down the bubble standings. Also we have a tiebreaker against UVA if we end up tied.

 

[Pitt2006]

I think they are in, but due to their road record. Lunardi moved them up 3 spots to a 9 seed. ND loss would likely move down 4 spots, but Miami will not and ACC tourney game should be no lower than a quad 2 on neutral site ranking.

 

[Drew1208]

Worst-case scenario is you lose to ND and Miami, get the 5 and lose to VT/FSU. Like you said, we could go from playing for the ACC Championship to missing the NCAAT. I think that even if we lose to ND, we are in if we lose to Miami and get the double bye because that 1st ACCT would be vs Duke or NC State which isnt a bad loss.

We can lose but it better be by the right amount of points

 

[Vader_Storm]

We can lose but it better be by the right amount of points

No way should we lose to Notre Dame unless Starling and Hammond come back. And neither will be 100%.

Hammond missed last game and left the UNC game and did not return because of a sprained toe. He is likely out against us. He is a starter.

Starling sat last game with a knee injury. He is also a starter.


Notre Dame has 5 players unless they get those guys back. Lubin will probably get 20 against Hinson , but they have zero depth.


Wake Forest's 2nd best player recently tore his acl and they easily beat Notre Dame last game. Road games are always tough. But they get far easier going up against 5 players, especially when those 5 players dont commit to defense.


As it stands today, losing this game given these circumstances would be a disaster.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

No way should we lose to Notre Dame unless Starling and Hammond come back. And neither will be 100%.

Hammond missed last game and left the UNC game and did not return because of a sprained toe. He is likely out against us. He is a starter.

Starling sat last game with a knee injury. He is also a starter.


Notre Dame has 5 players unless they get those guys back. Lubin will probably get 20 against Hinson , but they have zero depth.


Wake Forest's 2nd best player recently tore his acl and they easily beat Notre Dame last game. Road games are always tough. But they get far easier going up against 5 players, especially when those 5 players dont commit to defense.


As it stands today, losing this game given these circumstances would be a disaster.

Can we handicap their participation at this moment?

 

[Fredact]

Rankings are nice... but they have nothing to do with tournament seeding.

They say that, but I have to disagree. Using a human based selection committee means they are prone to human emotions. They don’t want to be embarrassed. So being in the polls helps a team’s selection and seeding. Similarly they are cognizant of TV ratings, so being a te that is known, either from the polls or historically (Duke, North Carolina) gets you a little bump as well.

 

[UPitt '89]

They say that, but I have to disagree. Using a human based selection committee means they are prone to human emotions. They don’t want to be embarrassed. So being in the polls helps a team’s selection and seeding. Similarly they are cognizant of TV ratings, so being a te that is known, either from the polls or historically (Duke, North Carolina) gets you a little bump as well.

I disagree on all points.

The committee uses team sheets that don't even list rankings. They often use blind resumes to work through the selections and seeding, not even knowing the actual team name.

 

[SteelBowl70]

I think they are in, but due to their road record. Lunardi moved them up 3 spots to a 9 seed. ND loss would likely move down 4 spots, but Miami will not and ACC tourney game should be no lower than a quad 2 on neutral site ranking.

The neutral xpursplits are 1-50, 51-100, 101-200 and over 200.

They say that, but I have to disagree. Using a human based selection committee means they are prone to human emotions. They don’t want to be embarrassed. So being in the polls helps a team’s selection and seeding. Similarly they are cognizant of TV ratings, so being a te that is known, either from the polls or historically (Duke, North Carolina) gets you a little bump as well.

In the end it’s still a human process for now until we ask chatGPT who should make it.

 

[Drew1208]

The neutral xpursplits are 1-50, 51-100, 101-200 and over 200.

agree. A team that is ranked gets more exposure and publicity. In the end it’s still a human process for now until we ask chatGPT who should make it.

Chat gtp isn't ready yet for that but I bet it will be very soon. The next version should be coming out.

I've been using it more and more lately

 

[PittGuy00]

They are a lock right now no matter how they finish the season. Other teams around their seed line play too and will lose games.

I wonder what the worst seed given to a power 5 outright winner has been in the past? Let’s say they win outright but lose in the 1st round of ACC. What is their seed? 7?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

No way should we lose to Notre Dame unless Starling and Hammond come back. And neither will be 100%.

Hammond missed last game and left the UNC game and did not return because of a sprained toe. He is likely out against us. He is a starter.

Starling sat last game with a knee injury. He is also a starter.


Notre Dame has 5 players unless they get those guys back. Lubin will probably get 20 against Hinson , but they have zero depth.


Wake Forest's 2nd best player recently tore his acl and they easily beat Notre Dame last game. Road games are always tough. But they get far easier going up against 5 players, especially when those 5 players dont commit to defense.


As it stands today, losing this game given these circumstances would be a disaster.

Early in the 2nd half of their game on Saturday the announcers were talking that with the way things were going the five that Notre Dame had on the court might have to play the whole second half. In the end that didn't happen, but they played their sixth man a total of 16 minutes, and they even used Robby Carmody in the first half for three minutes.

Their starters played 40, 38, 36, 35 and 32.

 

[sonofabit]

Early in the 2nd half of their game on Saturday the announcers were talking that with the way things were going the five that Notre Dame had on the court might have to play the whole second half. In the end that didn't happen, but they played their sixth man a total of 16 minutes, and they even used Robby Carmody in the first half for three minutes.

Their starters played 40, 38, 36, 35 and 32.

Imperative the ball has energy and the Domers have to chase Pitt’s shooters. Should get wide open looks as the game goes on. Refs used to penalize teams playing short handed opponents. Hope it doesn’t come down to a homer outcome.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

No way should we lose to Notre Dame unless Starling and Hammond come back. And neither will be 100%.

Hammond missed last game and left the UNC game and did not return because of a sprained toe. He is likely out against us. He is a starter.

Starling sat last game with a knee injury. He is also a starter.


Notre Dame has 5 players unless they get those guys back. Lubin will probably get 20 against Hinson , but they have zero depth.


Wake Forest's 2nd best player recently tore his acl and they easily beat Notre Dame last game. Road games are always tough. But they get far easier going up against 5 players, especially when those 5 players dont commit to defense.


As it stands today, losing this game given these circumstances would be a disaster.

So I didn’t see anything on twitter other than knee soreness and a sprained toe. No further updates that I can find.

Interesting Robby Carmody from Mars was called on for meaningful minutes and he’s clearly not ready to be an adequate ACC player.

 

[Vader_Storm]

So I didn’t see anything on twitter other than knee soreness and a sprained toe. No further updates that I can find.

Interesting Robby Carmody from Mars was called on for meaningful minutes and he’s clearly not ready to be an adequate ACC player.

Starling is officially out vs Pitt, confirmed today.

Looks like Hammond is a game time decision. And he shouldnt be anywhere near 100% if he plays.

 

[UPitt '89]

Starling is officially out vs Pitt, confirmed today.

Looks like Hammond is a game time decision. And he shouldnt be anywhere near 100% if he plays.

Starling and Hammond are over 20 PPG combined on average this season. Those are big losses for ND.

 

[Protes]

Just win tomorrow and we can stop with all the hand wringing once and for all. There's just no way an ACC regular season (co)champion will be left out of the Big Dance. If that were to happen, it would be scandalous.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Starling and Hammond are over 20 PPG combined on average this season. Those are big losses for ND.

I’m thinking Pitt laying the points.

 

[SteelBowl70]

30 in ELO which seems more reasonable https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/elo