Pitt vs. Duke game thread
- Thread starter rpastir
- Start date
No it doesn’t. Do you guys seriously not know this? This isn’t Narduzzi going on some weird limb..
The only thing that makes it a poor statistical choice is if you have poor goal line offense but also happen to be the better overall team (that would excel in OT)
OK, here's the math on going for two. This all assumes that the other guys won't score again and you do. And we all know (I assume) that that isn't the most likely, but it's what you are playing for.
Assuming you have a 50-50 chance at making the two and that you are going to make the extra point (to make the math simple):
If you go for the two after the first td, there are two choices, 50% make it, 50% miss. If you make it then when you score the second td you win.
If you don't make it, then when you score the second one, 50% chance you make it and go to overtime, 50% chance you miss and you lose.
So going for two gives you a 50% chance to win, a 25% chance to go to overtime, and a 25% chance to lose. If you kick after the first one and then go for two you have a 50% chance to win and a 50% chance to lose. And if you kick both of them you have a 100% chance of overtime.
The first one of those is obviously the one that maximizes your chance to win the game.
Assuming you have a 50-50 chance at making the two and that you are going to make the extra point (to make the math simple):
If you go for the two after the first td, there are two choices, 50% make it, 50% miss. If you make it then when you score the second td you win.
If you don't make it, then when you score the second one, 50% chance you make it and go to overtime, 50% chance you miss and you lose.
So going for two gives you a 50% chance to win, a 25% chance to go to overtime, and a 25% chance to lose. If you kick after the first one and then go for two you have a 50% chance to win and a 50% chance to lose. And if you kick both of them you have a 100% chance of overtime.
The first one of those is obviously the one that maximizes your chance to win the game.
Unless you can show me the analytics, I’m doubting teams make it 50% of the time they go for 2. Not saying it’s not true…just seems high to me.
Once again. The defense is the unit Narduzzi wants to have the game in their hands. How many third and longs has this team given up over the years.
H2P
H2P
I don’t know if THIS team makes it 50% of the time. That’s my only reason for pause there. I think over the long term it’s like 52/48.
There’s a reason why teams at the NFL level are now implementing this strategy more and more. Within a couple seasons it will be commonplace.
The turning point in this game was the 15 yard punt by Junko....not that it was a surprise, but it still sucked.
That's the thing, it would actually be team specific, and teams don't go for two enough to know what you would expect from your team, so you fall back on the all team average.
Penalties, conservative play calling, special teams and lack of pressure on the QB, is the story of the game…
Story of the year really.
I don’t know what it is in college - but I just looked up the NFL and it’s high 40s.
All moot now.
But honestly that’s something that more progressive coaches do. So if we want to get out of the stone ages, can’t hate giving it a shot there.
The next couple of weeks should be very interesting….
Exactly, that's what I thought all along. I'm going out to split firewood and pretend the logs are Cignetti.
Calling timeouts shows what a goddamned asshole Narduzzi is
Teams like Philly and Baltimore whose strength is getting 2 or 3 yards when you really need it, can really leverage that strategy.
Because if 50/50 gets you a 62% chance to win, 60/40 stretches it to 70% wins.
Seriously it's sad how a HC with an ego problem sabotaged his own team. I just don't understand that.
It's usually a little less in college than in the pros. But like I said, they both change from year to year.
I believe the "real" break even point, given how often teams make two pointers and how often teams miss extra points, is in the high 30s, like 37-38%. If you can make more than 37% of your two pointers the math says go for two after the first touchdown.
Yarnell finishes with 25/35 265 yards 2 TD’s 1 INT
Not bad for a 4th start. He should be the starter going into fall camp. If he’s not, he should transfer immediately.
Not bad for a 4th start. He should be the starter going into fall camp. If he’s not, he should transfer immediately.
The fact that your best two receivers were out of the game... I don't know; maybe something you'd also want to consider when going for two.
He was lucky enough to just miss some really crappy ones.
Being a 30 year old Pitt fans isn’t horrible. Have seen a string of HOF caliber players with some nice seasons. Plus young enough that they didn’t “just miss” the glory years or expect that too often.
I like the way he tried to make plays and didn’t just check it down all the time.
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