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Realistically, how could Pitt get into the Big Ten?

From my understanding the acc and big xii will be in the same ballpark and the big xii will get the jump in 2031 when their deal ends.

I still think the most valuable acc teams leftover after the big ten and sec takes what they want will go to the big xii or the acc and big xii blow up and a “best of the rest” conference forms. Just hope Pitt is in that.
If by “same ballpark” you mean somewhere between $5-10M per school, per year, for sure. The ACC distributed around $32M in media revenue per school in 2022-23, and its grown at a rate of between 5-10% per year since the ACCN launched.

The Big 12 is going to start distributing an average of $31.7M per school starting in 2025-26, for distributions that won’t be announced until 2027. I think it’s fair to project that the ACC’s media revenue will be close to $40M per school by then.
 
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This is why it’s important for the ACC to poach the Big 12 prior to 2036, given it has the chance to, and make sure it’s the last one standing.

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, and Utah would all be solid additions. I’d also say TCU, but we already have Texas covered with SMU.

Teams have to want to go. I don’t know if any of them want to with the threat of the big ten and sec looking at the acc biggest brands. They’ve been through that with the big xii and pac 12
 
This is why it’s important for the ACC to poach the Big 12 prior to 2036, given it has the chance to, and make sure it’s the last one standing.

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, and Utah would all be solid additions. I’d also say TCU, but we already have Texas covered with SMU.
Some selection (not in order) of Arizona State, Colorado, Utah and UConn are my preference, whether it’s a pure addition or whether it’s backfill if 1-2 schools manage to get out closer to the end of the decade.

Big flagship state schools in large and/or growing markets (Phoenix, Denver, SLC, and secondary NYC), close to urban areas and easy to get in and out of are kind of the ACC’s sweet spot.
 
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If by “same ballpark” you mean somewhere between $5-10M per school, per year, for sure. The ACC distributed around $32M in media revenue per school in 2022-23, and its grown at a rate of between 5-10% per year since the ACCN launched.

The Big 12 is going to start distributing an average of $31.7M per school starting in 2025-26, for distributions that won’t be announced until 2027. I think it’s fair to project that the ACC’s media revenue will be close to $40M per school by then.
Big xii distribution is going to grow year to year as well, and the big jumps for the accn growth will slow as those bigger jumps were due to gaining more distribution.

To me ballpark will be around $5m. But big xii will get a chance to jump more in 2031.

It’s not going to be $20m like joedavid said.
 
Big xii distribution is going to grow year to year as well, and the big jumps for the accn growth will slow as those bigger jumps were due to gaining more distribution.

To me ballpark will be around $5m. But big xii will get a chance to jump more in 2031.

It’s not going to be $20m like joedavid said.

The B12 going to "grow" to average $30 mil per year.

The ACC's $50 mil per team number is coming from Tony Altimore's analysis. He also explains why most are so far off on the ACC's actual revenue.
 
Some selection (not in order) of Arizona State, Colorado, Utah and UConn are my preference, whether it’s a pure addition or whether it’s backfill if 1-2 schools manage to get out closer to the end of the decade.

Big flagship state schools in large and/or growing markets (Phoenix, Denver, SLC, and secondary NYC), close to urban areas and easy to get in and out of are kind of the ACC’s sweet spot.
That’s what I was thinking. Those first three would make for great road trips.

However, as much as I’d want another northeast program in the ACC, Arizona brings a similarly strong basketball program with a much stronger football team. Same with KU. I have no interest in ISU, KSU, oSu, or any other of the other ‘OG’ Big 12 schools.
 
Which were sublicensed to them by espn. Those sublicensed games will not generate any new revenue for the acc

I think you are mixing up the packages. Raycom is still producing games for the CW. Those games are different from the 3rd tier ACCN games.
 
The B12 going to "grow" to average $30 mil per year.

The ACC's $50 mil per team number is coming from Tony Altimore's analysis. He also explains why most are so far off on the ACC's actual revenue.
Also what is this average: 26, 28, 30, 32, 34

That is what I mean by grow
 
The funny thing is, the eastern independents could’ve easily had that advantage if it had the foresight to form a conference in the 80s.

Boston College, FSU, Miami, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, VT, and WVU would’ve been a solid foundation that could’ve poached the ACC’s most valuable schools. At the very least, we’d be on the same level as the B1G/SEC.
There was talk about an eastern independents creating a conference with most of the teams you mentioned. What happened was at that time Pitt and PSU were the only teams consistently winning and going to bowl games. Of course Paterno wanted a bigger bowl money split. But behind everyone’s back Paterno was negotiating with the Big 10. So the story goes.
 
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Should have used the Paterno scandal to have Penn State not block an invite. Instead, Steve Peterson added an additional home and home, which of course Pitt lost. Idiots running the show at Pitt for decades. We really don't deserve an invite.
 
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IMO Pitt has no chance of getting into the Big 10. However there could be a better chance of getting into SEC. Here’s why. The SEC may want to get into the Pa tv market to challenge the big ten and take away viewers. I have read a story about this possibility about 2 months ago. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not sure that would be a good move for Pitt. Attendance wise you would think there would be an increase in attendance. It might even make a difference in recruiting. Pitt competing in the SEC that sounds really scary 🫣
 
IMO Pitt has no chance of getting into the Big 10. However there could be a better chance of getting into SEC. Here’s why. The SEC may want to get into the Pa tv market to challenge the big ten and take away viewers. I have read a story about this possibility about 2 months ago. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not sure that would be a good move for Pitt. Attendance wise you would think there would be an increase in attendance. It might even make a difference in recruiting. Pitt competing in the SEC that sounds really scary 🫣

With no chance of getting into the BIG, that would be the best possible outcome for Pitt, but it's not happening. Pittsburgh isn't a top market and adding Pitt doesn't increase their average value. Once the final pieces are picked off, Clemson, FSU, a couple of others, then the SEC and BIG will systematicmy remove the schools that decrease average value. So bye bye Vanderbilt and Northwestern.
 
I think you are mixing up the packages. Raycom is still producing games for the CW. Those games are different from the 3rd tier ACCN games.
Might be saying the same thing, but Raycom had that package before the ESPN deal started. They signed a renewal with Raycom for a really good price for Raycom, and then basically made ESPN honor it. Whether the Raycom games get 500,000 viewers or 3M, the price Raycom pays to the ACC is locked in. Raycom produces the games and distributes them how they want to, which currently is on the CW.

That deal ends in 2027 (I think?), and as far as I know it’s TBD whether those rights revert to ESPN (and, if they do, what that means financially for the ACC/ESPN contract) or whether the ACC can take them to market. I assume it’s one of the things they were working through in the recent contract talks, and just hasn’t been reported yet because it won’t happen for a while.
 
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With no chance of getting into the BIG, that would be the best possible outcome for Pitt, but it's not happening. Pittsburgh isn't a top market and adding Pitt doesn't increase their average value. Once the final pieces are picked off, Clemson, FSU, a couple of others, then the SEC and BIG will systematicmy remove the schools that decrease average value. So bye bye Vanderbilt and Northwestern.
I have read a couple of articles that Florida and S Carolina don’t want the competition from FSU and Clemson and the fact that in Florida the majority of people are gator fans even in Miami. This whole projection of the future of college sports is so convoluted you can’t figure out what is going to happen tomorrow. So enjoy the ride for now.
 
  1. Notre Dame agrees to join the Big Ten so long as their long-standing ACC rivals (Pitt, Stanford) also join. Perhaps this could be part of a larger scheduling agreement where they get to play us two, USC, Michigan, etc. annually for their conference schedule

The fact that Notre Dame is lobbying to play Clemson, FSU, and Miami more frequently as part of their required annual ACC games and not Pitt tells you everything you need to know about the plausibly of this scenerio.

When they had full autonomy in scheduling they didn't mind keeping Pitt around as a traditional opponent that was maybe a tier below them but was good enough to rise up and punch the teeth every once in a while.

Now that they have some of those same caliber opponents dictated to them every year by their ACC agreement; it seems clear they are happy to play Pitt as often as the ACC tells them to and are ok if it is not more frequent than that.

 
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I think you are mixing up the packages. Raycom is still producing games for the CW. Those games are different from the 3rd tier ACCN games.

ESPN sold a package to Raycom in 2010, 11, 12 something like that. Raycom, in turn sold half of THAT package to Fox Sports South but remained as the producer of those FSS games (Raycom announcers, cameras, trucks). FSS turned into Bally Sports South. Bally Sports South went out of business and The CW acquired the package. Raycom may still be producing the games, I dont know. But The CW owns the package.
 
Might be saying the same thing, but Raycom had that package before the ESPN deal started. They signed a renewal with Raycom for a really good price for Raycom, and then basically made ESPN honor it. Whether the Raycom games get 500,000 viewers or 3M, the price Raycom pays to the ACC is locked in. Raycom produces the games and distributes them how they want to, which currently is on the CW.

That deal ends in 2027 (I think?), and as far as I know it’s TBD whether those rights revert to ESPN (and, if they do, what that means financially for the ACC/ESPN contract) or whether the ACC can take them to market. I assume it’s one of the things they were working through in the recent contract talks, and just hasn’t been reported yet because it won’t happen for a while.

From what read some time ago, that other package of games could be sold after 2027 when the Raycom deal expired. Not saying it's 100% one way or the other at this point.
 
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Well, there is an asteroid arriving in 2032…
tenor.gif
I got it! Instead of paying into a NIL fund, the alumni should band together and fund a rocket through SpaceX that will strategically crash into the 2032 asteroid splitting it in 2 and crashing into State College and Columbus. It will take 4 years to recover and by that time the ACC contract will expire. We can then build the new Pitt Stadium in State College and shuttle the students there on the hyperloop.
 
I got it! Instead of paying into a NIL fund, the alumni should band together and fund a rocket through SpaceX that will strategically crash into the 2032 asteroid splitting it in 2 and crashing into State College and Columbus. It will take 4 years to recover and by that time the ACC contract will expire. We can then build the new Pitt Stadium in State College and shuttle the students there on the hyperloop.

The astroid has a 1 in 50 chance of hitting the earth. Seems like a weird time to defund science.
 
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From what read some time ago, that other package of games could be sold after 2027 when the Raycom deal expired. Not saying it's 100% one way or the other at this point.
It’s really the last “big” piece of inventory that the ACC has until 2036 aside from juicing the ACC Network. But everything’s so hidden that it’s unclear whether ESPN has a right of first refusal for it, or if it was a part of these recent option negotiations, or whether the ACC can take to the open market. It’s still far enough off that people haven’t really started to ask about it.
 
Notre Dame has longer standing rivalries with Big Ten schools Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern and they haven't joined the conference so why would adding Stanford change their mind.
USC as well. Many thought when USC joined the Big Ten in 2022 that ND would try to follow.

ND didn't budge.

In fact, it went the other way by doubling up on independence with a new NBC deal, favorable playoff deal and adding Cal, Stanford and SMU to try to keep the ACC afloat so as to help keep independence.
 
USC as well. Many thought when USC joined the Big Ten in 2022 that ND would try to follow.

ND didn't budge.

In fact, it went the other way by doubling up on independence with a new NBC deal, favorable playoff deal and adding Cal, Stanford and SMU to try to keep the ACC afloat so as to help keep independence.
So what you’re saying is, I shouldn’t count on it? :oops:
 
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If these numbers hold, it would appear that the gap is close to $10M for 2023-24. The ACC continues to outperform the more conservative projections.



 
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It's supposed to be pretty small and will only cause regional damage.
If it's your region it's heading for, you might want to have a bit of warning. Regrettably, since all of the agencies tracking these things are currently being gutted, you will just need to keep your eye on the sky.

And let's be truthful here: regional damage will consist of significant "regional" death and destruction.
 
I would rather see Pitt in the sec, big 10 already has a pa market school
Pitt to the SEC is probably more likely than Pitt to the Big 10. That could come from the Big 10 going south, and the SEC responding in kind by going North. Also, and I have said this many times over the last 8 years or so, Pitt's football reputation is much better in the South than it is in the North.
 
The funny thing is, the eastern independents could’ve easily had that advantage if it had the foresight to form a conference in the 80s.

Boston College, FSU, Miami, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, VT, and WVU would’ve been a solid foundation that could’ve poached the ACC’s most valuable schools. At the very least, we’d be on the same level as the B1G/SEC.
That conference would have ruled the 80's and 90's no doubt..... and probably would have continued doing so from then on.
 
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I got it! Instead of paying into a NIL fund, the alumni should band together and fund a rocket through SpaceX that will strategically crash into the 2032 asteroid splitting it in 2 and crashing into State College and Columbus. It will take 4 years to recover and by that time the ACC contract will expire. We can then build the new Pitt Stadium in State College and shuttle the students there on the hyperloop.
Try NASA. Space X hasn't had the best track record....

90
 
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