Rutgers

[Chescat]

I had to get away from the football board...it's really negative over there.

As for Rutgers, I didn't know anything about them but a few things stand out:
1. - They're 6-1
2. - They've played six games at home (all wins). The one loss was to a
mediocre St. Bonaventure on a neutral floor (Toronto).
3. - They beat Stephan F. Austin who beat Duke. Rutgers' schedule is
weaker than Pitt's IMO.
4. - I didn't look at who's favored, but I have to believe we stand a very good
chance of beating them. We have them at home, they really haven't played
a true road game. I don't think they've played against a D like Pitt's.
5. - We should be on a high right now after the tourney win in Florida.

Ok, that's what I see without knowing anything about Rutgers. I like what
Capel is doing and how the players are responding to what he's preaching.
X and Trey although disappointing to a degree, seem to be coming on and
looking more like what Capel wants out of them.
If we stay "gritty," I like our chances in this one.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I had to get away from the football board...it's really negative over there.

As for Rutgers, I didn't know anything about them but a few things stand out:
1. - They're 6-1
2. - They've played six games at home (all wins). The one loss was to a
mediocre St. Bonaventure on a neutral floor (Toronto).
3. - They beat Stephan F. Austin who beat Duke. Rutgers' schedule is
weaker than Pitt's IMO.
4. - I didn't look at who's favored, but I have to believe we stand a very good
chance of beating them. We have them at home, they really haven't played
a true road game. I don't think they've played against a D like Pitt's.
5. - We should be on a high right now after the tourney win in Florida.

Ok, that's what I see without knowing anything about Rutgers. I like what
Capel is doing and how the players are responding to what he's preaching.
X and Trey although disappointing to a degree, seems to be coming on and
looking more like what Capel wants out of them.
If we stay "gritty," I like our chances in this one.

Can’t argue with your logic. Yesterday, Sagarin’s computer had us even on a neutral court. That suggests we should be favored slightly due to home court advantage in our favor.

 

[sonofabit]

Well Nicholls didn't have any issues with the Zoo. And the success in FLA will probably work against this team. Sounds negative but I'm not expecting this young team to mature overnight and handle the FLA success. Expect sloppy play for the first half. It's Pitt. Hopefully I'm off-base with this line of thinking.

 

[R-M-U-h-o-o-p-s-f-a-n]

Can’t argue with your logic. Yesterday, Sagarin’s computer had us even on a neutral court. That suggests we should be favored slightly due to home court advantage in our favor.

Rutgers > SFA, SFA > Duke. Therefore: Pitt > Rutgers means, Pitt > Duke lol

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Well Nicholls didn't have any issues with the Zoo. And the success in FLA will probably work against this team. Sounds negative but I'm not expecting this young team to mature overnight and handle the FLA success. Expect sloppy play for the first half. It's Pitt. Hopefully I'm off-base with this line of thinking.

I just hope they play good d, get the ball to Champ and rebound early.

 

[Chescat]

Can’t argue with your logic. Yesterday, Sagarin’s computer had us even on a neutral court. That suggests we should be favored slightly due to home court advantage in our favor.

Now that's interesting! I wonder why Sagarin has us and Rutgers
rated so closely. Maybe strength of our schedule as opposed to theirs?
What do you think?

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

This morning, Sagarin has Rutgers better neutral site between 0.38 and 2.90 depending on which of his 4 ratings is used. Sagarin's generic home court advantage is 3.17 so that would make Pitt favored at home by between 0.27 and 2.82. His overall rating would have Pitt by 1.87. So that would be Pitt by about 2 points. His “recent” rating would have Pitt by 2.82– so, about 3 points if that is the most realistic of the 4 ratings. If we are improving it might be the better guess. But who really knows?

We will see what actually happens on Tuesday.

 

[rockypanther]

This morning, Sagarin has Rutgers better neutral site between 0.38 and 2.90 depending on which of his 4 ratings is used. Sagarin's generic home court advantage is 3.17 so that would make Pitt favored at home by between 0.27 and 2.82. His overall rating would have Pitt by 1.87. So that would be Pitt by about 2 points. His “recent” rating would have Pitt by 2.82– so, about 3 points if that is the most realistic of the 4 ratings. If we are improving it might be the better guess. But who really knows?

We will see what actually happens on Tuesday.

We are a very inconsistent team so far so I don’t trust anything Sagarin puts out until we have more games which gives Sagarin more data points.

 

[Chescat]

We are a very inconsistent team so far so I don’t trust anything Sagarin puts out until we have more games which gives Sagarin more data points.

You make a good point. The more games, the more valid the sample and
the results. It's still early, but eight or so games does give Sagarin a more
stable leg to stand on so to speak.
As often mentioned, I like statistics...especially individual player stats.
There are some areas that are not measured like team chemistry,
work ethic, hustle, GRIT, etc. etc.
As you said we are "very inconsistent." The last game gives me some
hope, at least in these OOC conference games. Despite their record
I don't know that Rutgers is any better than Northwestern or K State.
I doubt there anywhere near as good as WVU (or at least the WVU
team that showed up against us).

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

We are a very inconsistent team so far so I don’t trust anything Sagarin puts out until we have more games which gives Sagarin more data points.

Yes, that is true. But it is less true than it was a few games ago. It is better now and the “recent” rating is beginning to suggest improvement following the KSU and Northwestern wins.

FWIW, we are improving each game now—at least to my very fallible “eye test.”

 

[rockypanther]

Yes, that is true. But it is less true than it was a few games ago. It is better now and the “recent” rating is beginning to suggest improvement following the KSU and Northwestern wins.

FWIW, we are improving each game now—at least to my very fallible “eye test.”

You are right. Every game the projections will improve in my opinion. The weird thing about Pitt is we have a pretty large variance of expected outcomes because of our youth and new additions. I think we know what we will get from X and Trey but Champ and Hamilton and even Murphy can be really efficient or very inefficient. We are a roller coaster team, maybe more so than most opponents which means I have a hard time trusting statiscal predictions with Pitf yet.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

You are right. Every game the projections will improve in my opinion. The weird thing about Pitt is we have a pretty large variance of expected outcomes because of our youth and new additions. I think we know what we will get from X and Trey but Champ and Hamilton and even Murphy can be really efficient or very inefficient. We are a roller coaster team, maybe more so than most opponents which means I have a hard time trusting statiscal predictions with Pitf yet.

IMHO, the roller coaster oscillations are flattening. Expecting fewer extreme variations from the norm going forward now. Hope I am right. HTP!!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

You guys are talking about us having a large variance in outcomes. Rutgers beat an awful Bryant team by two points. They beat an awful Drexel team by five points. They lost to St. Bonaventure, who is not good at all, by six points. But then they also beat UMass, who isn't good but is probably the best team that they've beaten, by 25. They beat a bad Niagara team by 47. So who knows what you are going to get out of them.

 

[rockypanther]

IMHO, the roller coaster oscillations are flattening. Expecting fewer extreme variations from the norm going forward now. Hope I am right. HTP!!

Me too!!!

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

You guys are talking about us having a large variance in outcomes. Rutgers beat an awful Bryant team by two points. They beat an awful Drexel team by five points. They lost to St. Bonaventure, who is not good at all, by six points. But then they also beat UMass, who isn't good but is probably the best team that they've beaten, by 25. They beat a bad Niagara team by 47. So who knows what you are going to get out of them.

I was only talking about our Pitt range above or below the current computer predicted outcomes for our 8 games to date. Our Sagarin based “played as if” rating seems to be settling down:

Game 1 through 8 “played as if” ratings trend currently looks like this—

87.45 - 61.04 - 78.70 - 70.17 - 78.01 - 79.34 - 80.06 - 86.49.

The trend appears to reflect both improvement and less volatility over the last 4 games compared to the first 4 games. This seems believable based on the “eye test” of our level of play over the first four games versus over the second four games.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I was only talking about our Pitt range above or below the current computer predicted outcomes for our 8 games to date.

And I'm saying that if you think that Pitt has some sort of huge variation in those numbers then you should look at what Rutgers variation is, because my guess is that they make our numbers look consistent by comparison.

And four games isn't near enough to draw any sort of conclusion about "volatility" trends. We played our worst in our second game. Throw that out and the numbers don't look all that volatile at all.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

And I'm saying that if you think that Pitt has some sort of huge variation in those numbers then you should look at what Rutgers variation is, because my guess is that they make our numbers look consistent by comparison.

And four games isn't near enough to draw any sort of conclusion about "volatility" trends. We played our worst in our second game. Throw that out and the numbers don't look all that volatile at all.

And we were also almost as bad vs WVU in game #4--as bad in the 2nd half, certainly.

That being said--you are right about Rutgers volatility--But it has mostly been volatile to the upside for them. They have has several blowouts of teams similar in rating strength to teams we beat comfortably but didn't blow out.

 

[TheLogicalTake]

Steve Pikiell is doing one heck of a job with Rutgers. I caught a bit of their game against NJIT last week and came away impressed. They are better than either of the teams we saw in Florida, so this will be a nice test for us.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Steve Pikiell is doing one heck of a job with Rutgers. I caught a bit of their game against NJIT last week and came away impressed. They are better than either of the teams we saw in Florida, so this will be a nice test for us.

He is doing such a great job that he will be fired at the end of this season after finishing last in the Big Ten. Rutgers is terrible. If we lose to them, that's not good.

 

[pittchagg]

He is doing such a great job that he will be fired at the end of this season after finishing last in the Big Ten. Rutgers is terrible. If we lose to them, that's not good.

Rutgers won't finish in last place. They're better than Minnesota, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

 

[TheLogicalTake]

He is doing such a great job that he will be fired at the end of this season after finishing last in the Big Ten. Rutgers is terrible. If we lose to them, that's not good.

He’s not getting fired. That program was a disaster and he’s slowly got it pointing in the right direction. He just got an extension not long ago to keep some bigger schools from sniffing around, so I don’t see him going anywhere anytime soon

 

[NGPittCali]

I expect the game to be a battle. I will be thrilled if Pitt gets out of this week 1-1. Yum center on Saturday is going to be tough.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Rutgers won't finish in last place. They're better than Minnesota, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

And Wisconsin as well-- per Sagarin's computer today and only has us favored by about 1.5 points ( by about half the standard home court advantage).

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I expect the game to be a battle. I will be thrilled if Pitt gets out of this week 1-1. Yum center on Saturday is going to be tough.

Your expectations are extremely low. Rutgers was picked 12th in the Big Ten and we are playing them at home. This HAS to be a win. I'd view it almost as a must-win. You cant lose to Rutgers at home

 

[NTOP]

I just hope they play good d, get the ball to Champ and rebound early.

We need Murph to get some good looks. Now that we're getting some better play in the middle (come on, Terrell) the wings might be a bit clearer.

 

[pittchagg]

Your expectations are extremely low. Rutgers was picked 12th in the Big Ten and we are playing them at home. This HAS to be a win. I'd view it almost as a must-win. You cant lose to Rutgers at home

Take a deep breath. Rutgers is a similarly-ranked team to Pitt. That's why we're matched up with them. We should win the game, but that's mostly because it's at home.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Take a deep breath. Rutgers is a similarly-ranked team to Pitt. That's why we're matched up with them. We should win the game, but that's mostly because it's at home.

I get that but they are a bad team. We are HOPING to make at least a run for the NIT. Losing at home to Rutgers would be a sign that that isnt possible.

 

[Drew1208]

Anyone who thinks we will beat any team easily is delusional.
We haven't shown any consistency yet and there are crazy upsets everywhere, and this wouldn't even be a true upset if we lost.
It'd be a loss.

 

[pittchagg]

I get that but they are a bad team. We are HOPING to make at least a run for the NIT. Losing at home to Rutgers would be a sign that that isnt possible.

Rutgers is also hoping to at least make a run for the NIT, they were better than we were last year, they came into the season with a higher projected rating, and they're still rated slightly higher coming into this game. On paper, they're basically us with a little more experience, especially in the backcourt.

But we're at home, we've played a little better than we were projected to so far, and we got a little momentum last week in Florida.

 

[gary2]

Anyone who thinks we will beat any team easily is delusional.
We haven't shown any consistency yet and there are crazy upsets everywhere, and this wouldn't even be a true upset if we lost.
It'd be a loss.

That is kind of what I said to DT, but he is two thirds of the way to his three wins.

 

[Drew1208]

That's a Goldbergfan alias. If I ever go missing, tell Peak to tell the police to look into Goldbergfan.

I like SMF he keeps the board spicy

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I like SMF he keeps the board spicy

I don't usually agree with SMF but I appreciate that he always has a take, takes a lot of crap, and doesn't reply like a lot of the internet tough guys who take offense at everything.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

But it has mostly been volatile to the upside for them.

So them beating Bryant by two and Drexel by five and losing to St. Bonaventure show volatility on the upside for them? Wow. Who knew?

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I don't usually agree with SMF but I appreciate that he always has a take, takes a lot of crap, and doesn't reply like a lot of the internet tough guys who take offense at everything.

I agree. SMF is a different breed, an idea man and a lot crazier than most. He is a good Pitt fan though.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

FWIW, some places are starting to put lines up on the game. 3-1/2 is a popular number so far.

So, you know, obviously we should beat them easily.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Several also have it at -4. So -3 to -4 on a home court pretty much puts the teams about even.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

FWIW, some places are starting to put lines up on the game. 3-1/2 is a popular number so far.

So, you know, obviously we should beat them easily.

I saw 4.

 

[Chescat]

I agree. SMF is a different breed, an idea man and a lot crazier than most. He is a good Pitt fan though.

There's no doubt he's a Pitt fan. He takes a of crap. Of course he
deserves a lot of it based on his outta space comments and ideas.
I like the fact that he doesn't get personal, and as another poster
noted, doesn't resort to being a "computer tough guy" with those
who argue and insult him.

 

[Local Shill]

Most of these posts are more than fair but a couple of you guys are are pieces of work acting like Rutgers is beneath you anymore. Those days are long gone.

I really enjoyed watching Pitt in their heyday early and mid 2000s and always pulled for you in the NCAA Tournament, but Jaron Brown, Chevy Troutman and Sam Young ain't walking through that door.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I had to get away from the football board...it's really negative over there.

As for Rutgers, I didn't know anything about them but a few things stand out:
1. - They're 6-1
2. - They've played six games at home (all wins). The one loss was to a
mediocre St. Bonaventure on a neutral floor (Toronto).
3. - They beat Stephan F. Austin who beat Duke. Rutgers' schedule is
weaker than Pitt's IMO.
4. - I didn't look at who's favored, but I have to believe we stand a very good
chance of beating them. We have them at home, they really haven't played
a true road game. I don't think they've played against a D like Pitt's.
5. - We should be on a high right now after the tourney win in Florida.

Ok, that's what I see without knowing anything about Rutgers. I like what
Capel is doing and how the players are responding to what he's preaching.
X and Trey although disappointing to a degree, seem to be coming on and
looking more like what Capel wants out of them.
If we stay "gritty," I like our chances in this one.

Also avoiding the football board like the plague. No surprise about the negativity after the last two games.

The only thing that worries me is that Rutgers was able to produce blow-out wins vs a number of their weaker opponents while we struggled some vs similarly rated weaker opponents.