Scary, scary situation---

[DC_Area_Panther]

Just looked at the current Sagarin ratings to see what they predict for Pitt the rest of the season (adjusted for home field advantage). There is not a single win predicted.

It predicts a truly, truly horrifying 2-10 final record!

@UNC Lose by 4
@UCF Lose by 15
Cuse Lose by 1.5
@ ND Lose by 17
Duke Lose by 9
@UVa Lose by 8
VA Tech Lose by 11
@Wake Lose by 10
@ Miami Lose by 21

To be fair, these results are skewed by the PSU blowout loss and Pitt may improve significantly going forward if it can figure out how to have as good a second half offense as it has had in the first half of the first 3 games.

The immediate, today, best case assumption is that the Georgia Tech game is the best data piece and Pitt is really currently 6 points better than its current overall Sagarin rating. However, that only predicts 2 more wins (UNC & Cuse).

Fortunately its early and the offense has lots of room to improve significantly. This team needs to be at least 10 points/game better to predict a 6-6 final record

It better improve quickly!

 

[PittCity]

Pitt could either lose 6 of them or win 6 of them and it would shock no one , never know what your gonna get with Pitt.

 

[eastcoasthoops]

What was the Sagarin difference between Pitt and Youngstown State in 2012?

How about Pitt and Clemson in 2016?

Luckily games are played on a field and not an excel spreadsheet.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Just looked at the current Sagarin ratings to see what they predict for Pitt the rest of the season (adjusted for home filed advantage). There is not a single win predicted.

It predicts a truly, truly horrifying 2-10 final record!

@UNC Lose by 4
@UCF Lose by 15
Cuse Lose by 1.5
@ ND Lose by 17
Duke Lose by 9
@UVa Lose by 8
VA Tech Lose by 11
@Wake Lose by 10
@ Miami Lose by 21

To be fair, these results are skewed by the PSU blowout loss and Pitt may improve significantly going forward if it can figure out how to have as good a second half offense as it has had in the first half of the first 3 games.

The immediate, today, best case assumption is that the Georgia Tech game is the best data piece and Pitt is really currently 6 points better than its current overall Sagarin rating. However, that only predicts 2 more wins (UNC & Cuse).

Fortunately its early and the offense has lots of room to improve significantly. This team needs to be at least 10 points/game better to predict a 6-6 final record

It better improve quickly!

Thanks for posting this.
Now I can find other things to do for the next 9 game days.
Wish it would have come up sooner, I could have mowed earlier or gone fishing.

What's next year's record going to be? I'd like to plan ahead...

 

[HailToPitt725]

Odd that they have us losing by less to Syracuse then UNC. Syracuse is going to be a tough out.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Odd that they have us losing by less to Syracuse then UNC. Syracuse is going to be a tough out.

Ratings this early tend to not be very accurate. I do hope and believe things will change drastically for the better as the season progresses.

The current Vegas odds have Pitt favored by 3 at UNC. This suggests Pitt may be 7 points better than its current Sagarin rating and more in line with the Georgia Tech win. If that proves correct and, in addition, we learn how to have an effective 2nd half of games offense the entire picture changes significantly.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There isn't a single expected win. We could lose all 9 or win 6-7 more. 5-7 was the best bet before the season and I'd stick with that until this team shows more.

 

[upj87]

Odd that they have us losing by less to Syracuse then UNC. Syracuse is going to be a tough out.

odder sill losing to Syracuse by only 1.5 while losing to Duke by 9.

 

[fairgambit]

They are just as likely to go 10-2 as 2-10, which means it won't happen. I see at least 6 wins and a bowl game. They will beat UNC, Duke, UVA, and Wake. They have a good shot with Syracuse.

 

[pitts-lament]

With our inability to play a solid 4 quarters, we will end up any where from 4-8 to 6-6. Still not sold on our lber play and some of our secondary play. We at this time are very lacking in play makers both sides of the ball.Not to thrilled with our OC either.

 

[Las Panteras]

Any prediction which includes anything but the next game should be placed on the toilet paper holder in your bathroom.

They are 20-21 year old kids. You never know who comes ready to play and who doesnt

You never know

 

[VolPanther]

Pitt could either lose 6 of them or win 6 of them and it would shock no one , never know what your gonna get with Pitt.

Amen to that. I was just looking at the next 6 games and thought we could be 7-2 or easily 2-7 just depending on who shows up. It would be like them to lay an egg this weekend then thump ND.

 

[JoseLind13]

How much did Sagarin predict GT to beat Pitt last week? After the Pitt head-to-head win, GT (1-2) is still ranked 20 spots better than Pitt (2-1)

This early in the season, computers projections are irrelevant and severely skewed by such a small sample size of actual meaningful games played.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

How much did Sagarin predict GT to beat Pitt last week? After the Pitt head-to-head win, GT (1-2) is still ranked 20 spots better than Pitt (2-1)

This early in the season, computers projections are irrelevant and severely skewed by such a small sample size of actual meaningful games played.

No argument. The magnitude of the PSU loss is skewing things greatly at this early stage of the season.

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

How much did Sagarin predict GT to beat Pitt last week? After the Pitt head-to-head win, GT (1-2) is still ranked 20 spots better than Pitt (2-1)

This early in the season, computers projections are irrelevant and severely skewed by such a small sample size of actual meaningful games played.

Sagarin himself will tell you not to put much stock in his ratings after only three games.

 

[Ray in Etna]

Pitt is the definition of mediocre right now. Just good enough to beat any team, and just bad enough to lose to any team.

 

[Panther_in_Kentucky]

Just looked at the current Sagarin ratings to see what they predict for Pitt the rest of the season (adjusted for home field advantage). There is not a single win predicted.

It predicts a truly, truly horrifying 2-10 final record!

@UNC Lose by 4
@UCF Lose by 15
Cuse Lose by 1.5
@ ND Lose by 17
Duke Lose by 9
@UVa Lose by 8
VA Tech Lose by 11
@Wake Lose by 10
@ Miami Lose by 21

To be fair, these results are skewed by the PSU blowout loss and Pitt may improve significantly going forward if it can figure out how to have as good a second half offense as it has had in the first half of the first 3 games.

The immediate, today, best case assumption is that the Georgia Tech game is the best data piece and Pitt is really currently 6 points better than its current overall Sagarin rating. However, that only predicts 2 more wins (UNC & Cuse).

Fortunately its early and the offense has lots of room to improve significantly. This team needs to be at least 10 points/game better to predict a 6-6 final record

It better improve quickly!

If Narduzzi goes 2 - 10 he is Gonzo and should be.

 

[rockypanther]

What was the Sagarin difference between Pitt and Youngstown State in 2012?

How about Pitt and Clemson in 2016?

Luckily games are played on a field and not an excel spreadsheet.

You cited two anomalies.

 

[joeydavid]

Having a coach rape children in the teams showers is a scary situation. There's ZERO chance that Pitt losses the rest of their games. The early Sagarin numbers are meaningless by his own admission.

Just looked at the current Sagarin ratings to see what they predict for Pitt the rest of the season (adjusted for home field advantage). There is not a single win predicted.

It predicts a truly, truly horrifying 2-10 final record!

@UNC Lose by 4
@UCF Lose by 15
Cuse Lose by 1.5
@ ND Lose by 17
Duke Lose by 9
@UVa Lose by 8
VA Tech Lose by 11
@Wake Lose by 10
@ Miami Lose by 21

To be fair, these results are skewed by the PSU blowout loss and Pitt may improve significantly going forward if it can figure out how to have as good a second half offense as it has had in the first half of the first 3 games.

The immediate, today, best case assumption is that the Georgia Tech game is the best data piece and Pitt is really currently 6 points better than its current overall Sagarin rating. However, that only predicts 2 more wins (UNC & Cuse).

Fortunately its early and the offense has lots of room to improve significantly. This team needs to be at least 10 points/game better to predict a 6-6 final record

It better improve quickly!

 

[cashisking884]

Ratings this early tend to not be very accurate. I do hope and believe things will change drastically for the better as the season progresses.

The current Vegas odds have Pitt favored by 3 at UNC. This suggests Pitt may be 7 points better than its current Sagarin rating and more in line with the Georgia Tech win. If that proves correct and, in addition, we learn how to have an effective 2nd half of games offense the entire picture changes significantly.

Saying ratings this early tend not to be very accurate, is taking it too far.
There are specific teams that the ratings get wrong, due to the need to pull from the previous season for a sample size (FSU last year was a perfect example).
But on the whole, you still see a decent amount of accuracy.

 

[Pitt79]

I'm not "scared"! LOL! If it happens, nothing will happen to me, so hwy be "scared" ? LOL

If they go 2-10 or 4-8, I won't be surprised, Pitt hasn't cared about football since the early '80s, so what do you expect? With the elevel of concern of the admin, 2-10 will happen sometimes.

 

[cashisking884]

No argument. The magnitude of the PSU loss is skewing things greatly at this early stage of the season.

The wins aren't helping either. The thing about the various analytic models is they don't care about your wins as much as they care about how you played in them. Since it's all about statistics and their probabilities.
LSU I think dropped in the S&P+ this week after beating Auburn, because Auburn so thoroughly dominated the game everywhere but the scoreboard.
So far the models don't like how badly we lost, but also doesn't see a particularly good team in our wins. So it's projecting that going forward.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

Sargarin says: If passing game improves* :
@UNC Lose by 4 ... Pitt wins by 17
@UCF Lose by 15... UCF wins by 4
Cuse Lose by 1.5... Pitt wins by 10
@ ND Lose by 17... Pitt wins by 7
Duke Lose by 9.... Pitt wins by 9
@UVa Lose by 8.... Pitt wins by 14
VA Tech Lose by 11... VT wins by 6
@Wake Lose by 10... Pitt wins by 8
@ Miami Lose by 21... Pitt wins by 13

* Kenny would need to be able to show he can throw for more than one TD in a game.

 

[Toddy_Too_Hotty]

Just looked at the current Sagarin ratings to see what they predict for Pitt the rest of the season (adjusted for home field advantage). There is not a single win predicted.

It predicts a truly, truly horrifying 2-10 final record!

@UNC Lose by 4
@UCF Lose by 15
Cuse Lose by 1.5
@ ND Lose by 17
Duke Lose by 9
@UVa Lose by 8
VA Tech Lose by 11
@Wake Lose by 10
@ Miami Lose by 21

To be fair, these results are skewed by the PSU blowout loss and Pitt may improve significantly going forward if it can figure out how to have as good a second half offense as it has had in the first half of the first 3 games.

The immediate, today, best case assumption is that the Georgia Tech game is the best data piece and Pitt is really currently 6 points better than its current overall Sagarin rating. However, that only predicts 2 more wins (UNC & Cuse).

Fortunately its early and the offense has lots of room to improve significantly. This team needs to be at least 10 points/game better to predict a 6-6 final record

It better improve quickly!

God that is scary...scary. I think I just crapped my pants it's so scary!!!

 

[CJsE]

Any prediction which includes anything but the next game should be placed on the toilet paper holder in your bathroom.

They are 20-21 year old kids. You never know who comes ready to play and who doesnt

You never know

Yup, that's why I put all my money on Indiana every year. Because they have 20-21 year olds just like Alabama, so really it's a toss up which team will be better.

 

[Las Panteras]

Yup, that's why I put all my money on Indiana every year. Because they have 20-21 year olds just like Alabama, so really it's a toss up which team will be better.

Well genius.....with the point spread balancing out it is a tossup

Which takes us back to 21 year old kids.

See how that works?

 

[PittPanther44]

It’s BS....

But one thing that is a fact and a little sobering...only 3 more home games left. The season just started.

Really should have 7 and it sucks traveling to place like UCF that has no mystique but a high probability for a loss.