Tough 10 game stretch coming up

[Sean Miller Fan]

It's the ACC, so it shouldn't be THAT tough but our next 10 games all happen to be against NCAAT teams or teams that still have a chance. Except Syracuse but that's on the road and I dont think Capel has won there when there wasnt an insurrection going on.

@ Duke
Lou
@ FSU
Clem
@ Syr
UNC
@ Wake
UVa
@ UNC
@ SMU

6-4 would be good. 5-5 acceptable. 4-6 and its back to the bubble.

 

[LGP1989]

If we go 5-5, we have no chance of making the tournament.

 

[H2P2010]

7-3 at minimum if they're the team we think they are

 

[Chairman Moe]

If we go 5-5, we have no chance of making the tournament.

If all of the home games are wins in that scenario, I think we are still OK for the NCAAT, barring any misfortune in the final 6 games and ACCT. We have to win @ Syracuse and should win @ FSU.

The game @ FSU will be quite interesting with Cam Corhen returning to play against his former teammates

 

[Pittnerski]

I wonder if Corhen was apart of that lawsuit against fsu and Leonard Hamilton over non NIL payments?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we go 5-5, we have no chance of making the tournament.

We would be 8-5 and need to go 11-9. So if we go 5-5, we would just need to go 3-4 in the last 7 which we will do.

 

[pittchagg]

I wonder if Corhen was apart of that lawsuit against fsu and Leonard Hamilton over non NIL payments?

I think he’s mostly just happy that he landed somewhere that’s actually paying him what we promised. And I’m pretty sure that the plaintiffs in that suit were all guys whose eligibility expired, because one of the claims is that they were permanently deprived of their earning potential because they were told they were going to get something, they didn’t, and now their eligibility is gone so they can’t make it back somewhere else.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

And I’m pretty sure that the plaintiffs in that suit were all guys whose eligibility expired, because one of the claims is that they were permanently deprived of their earning potential because they were told they were going to get something, they didn’t, and now their eligibility is gone so they can’t make it back somewhere else.

That's not right. Two of the six have used up their eligibility. The other four all still had eligibility, and all four of them transferred at the end of last season. Primo Spears went to UTSA, Cam'Ron Fletcher went to Xavier, De'Ante Green went to USF and Jalen Warley went to Gonzaga.

 

[Pitt666]

It really depends but Pitt should go 8-2 in this stretch if healthy. Most important is to beat Cuse and Virginia as those are the q3 resume blunders to avoid. So the breakdown is 3 q1, 5 q2 and 2 q3.

Win the 2 q3
Then try to win 6 of the other 8 to get to 9-4 in q1/2.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

6-4 would be good. 5-5 acceptable. 4-6 and its back to the bubble.

If you really think that then you don't think we are very good.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If you really think that then you don't think we are very good.

I just want the NCAAT. Just get there and preferably not Dayton. I would sign up for 6-4 right now rather than playing it out.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

If we go 5-5, we have no chance of making the tournament.

We are 3-0, if we go 5-5 in those 10 games, and then say we go 6-1. That would mean we are 14-6 in the conference and the strength of our non conference wins would assure we are in.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

We would be 8-5 and need to go 11-9. So if we go 5-5, we would just need to go 3-4 in the last 7 which we will do.

11-9? I don’t know man.

 

[Pitt666]

11-9? I don’t know man.

11-9 would be NIT. Mostly because there are only 11 q1/2 games left for Pitt. 5-11 in q1/2 isn’t getting them in this year as there Net would drop to 40s in the scenario. 7-9 in q1/2 would also be dicey as two losses would be q3/4. This isn’t an 11-9 ACC team. Torvik has been nearly spot on. Trust the metrics.

 

[LGP1989]

We would be 8-5 and need to go 11-9. So if we go 5-5, we would just need to go 3-4 in the last 7 which we will do.

I wouldn't say 11-9 is guaranteed this year. 11 total losses as an ACC team this year is very bubbly.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

ESPN Analytics has Pitt favored in 7 games and an underdog in 3 games--

@duke
@unc
@SMU

 

[TD_6082]

That's not right. Two of the six have used up their eligibility. The other four all still had eligibility, and all four of them transferred at the end of last season. Primo Spears went to UTSA, Cam'Ron Fletcher went to Xavier, De'Ante Green went to USF and Jalen Warley went to Gonzaga.

Warley first went to Virginia. He's the one player who went back in the portal when Bennett stepped down.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We are 3-0, if we go 5-5 in those 10 games, and then say we go 6-1. That would mean we are 14-6 in the conference and the strength of our non conference wins would assure we are in.

We don't need to go 14-6 to make the NCAAT

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

We don't need to go 14-6 to make the NCAAT

To say that you cannot be fully realizing just how bad most of the ACC teams are rated by the computer rankings. IMHO, reality is Pitt must finish in the top 4 of the ACC to get an NCAA bid. I doubt more than 4 bids go to the ACC. It is doubtful in my mind that anything worse than 14-6 will be a top 4 ACC finish.

Right now the computers have us second among ACC teams. CORECTED (UNC Added) KenPom and Torvik, for example--

KenPOM:
Duke #2
Pitt #21
Clemson #32
UNC #35
Louisville #40
SMU #51

Torvik:
Duke #3
Pitt #29
Louisville #34
Clemson #37
UNC #49
SMU #56

 

[Cavalier Panther]

I agree that SMF is too rosy. If we finish 12-8 in conference I feel good about about our chances of making the tournament but not great. We were 12-8 last year and missed. Sure, there were other factors like the bad Missouri loss, overall weak non-con, and the bubble breaking against us. But if we have the same conference record on Selection Sunday in 2024 as we did in 2023, when we missed, I won't be sleeping easy.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

To say that you cannot be fully realizing just how bad most of the ACC teams are rated by the computer rankings. IMHO, reality is Pitt must finish in the top 4 of the ACC to get an NCAA bid. I doubt more than 4 bids go to the ACC. It is doubtful in my mind that anything worse than 14-6 will be a top 4 ACC finish.

Right now the computers have us second among ACC teams. KenPom and Torvik, for example--

KenPOM:
Duke #2
Pitt #21
Clemson #32
Louisville #40
SMU #51

Torvik:
Duke #3
Pitt #29
Louisville #34
Clemson #37
SMU #56

You guys are forgetting that the non-conference schedule is extra-weighted. Those are the most important games. We were 9-2 with 2, maybe 3 good wins and our non-con SOS is 21.

Unless WVU, OSU, and LSU tank and we suffer some really bad losses in the ACC, 11-9 will be enough. The committee LOVES the non-con.

11-9 = bubble but in, probably Dayton though

12-8 = 10/11 seed

13-7 = 9/10 seed

14-6 = 7-9 seed

15-5 = 5-7 seed

16-4 = 4-5 seed

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

IMHO, reality is Pitt must finish in the top 4 of the ACC to get an NCAA bid. I doubt more than 4 bids go to the ACC.

Last year
1. UNC
2. Duke
3. UVa
4. Pitt
5. Clem

Clemson went 11-9 in conference, finished 5th and got in extremely easily as a 6. We went 12-8 and finished 4th and were the 4th team out. We finished ahead of Clemson in the ACC but they were like 40 spots ahead of us for the NCAAT. Why? The non-con. And the non-con is why UVa got in even though we beat them and our overall SOS was stronger.

11-9 should be good enough but that depends on what else happens.

 

[Cavalier Panther]

This all sounds pretty reasonable (doubly so since it's SMF).

But think of it this way. We get Dunn back this week. Then we proceed to go 8-9 to close out the year -- less than .500 in a mediocre ACC -- and finish 11-9. Are you feeling excited at that point? Do you think we get the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday? That's a grim final stretch. I can't imagine any Pittsburgh sports team stumbling down the stretch like that.

Edit: Except for our Pitt Football Panthers.
Edit Edit: Sorry, also the Steelers.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

One game at a time fellas. Lol 😂

 

[FireballZ]

Such a dumb thread being led by the usual suspects. The ACC is horrid this year. There is no way, barring a significant injury to Lowe, Leggett or Austin, that Pitt is going worse than 14-6 in this league.

 

[Pitt666]

Such a dumb thread being led by the usual suspects. The ACC is horrid this year. There is no way, barring a significant injury to Lowe, Leggett or Austin, that Pitt is going worse than 14-6 in this league.

I can also see them losing by 30 tomorrow and still going like 18-2.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Such a dumb thread being led by the usual suspects. The ACC is horrid this year. There is no way, barring a significant injury to Lowe, Leggett or Austin, that Pitt is going worse than 14-6 in this league.

You forgot Dunn. Major injury.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

We don't need to go 14-6 to make the NCAAT

I never said we did. I was responding to the poster who said we had no chance to make the tournament if we go 5-5 over that 10 game stretch.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

This all sounds pretty reasonable (doubly so since it's SMF).

But think of it this way. We get Dunn back this week. Then we proceed to go 8-9 to close out the year -- less than .500 in a mediocre ACC -- and finish 11-9. Are you feeling excited at that point? Do you think we get the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday? That's a grim final stretch. I can't imagine any Pittsburgh sports team stumbling down the stretch like that.

Edit: Except for our Pitt Football Panthers.
Edit Edit: Sorry, also the Steelers.

No, we wouldn't be excited and we wouldn't feel great on Selection Sunday, but assuming we went 1-1 in the ACCT, we'd be 21-12, a non-con SOS in the 20s, and 2 good non-con wins. Even if we win only 8 more games, there either has to be a few good wins in there or no more good wins but no Q3/4 losses if we win just the easiest 8 games. Now, if WVU, OSU, and LSU all tank, we'll be in trouble.

In reality, we'll probably win 2 out of 3 vs Clem, UNC, and Lou at home. Maybe we win 1 or 2 out of 4 vs UNC, SMU, Wake, FSU on the road to give us a Q1. Wake & FSU could be Top 75 by then.

11-9 should be enough. The non-con means almost everything

 

[Pitt666]

No, we wouldn't be excited and we wouldn't feel great on Selection Sunday, but assuming we went 1-1 in the ACCT, we'd be 21-12, a non-con SOS in the 20s, and 2 good non-con wins. Even if we win only 8 more games, there either has to be a few good wins in there or no more good wins but no Q3/4 losses if we win just the easiest 8 games. Now, if WVU, OSU, and LSU all tank, we'll be in trouble.

In reality, we'll probably win 2 out of 3 vs Clem, UNC, and Lou at home. Maybe we win 1 or 2 out of 4 vs UNC, SMU, Wake, FSU on the road to give us a Q1. Wake & FSU could be Top 75 by then.

11-9 should be enough. The non-con means almost everything

11-9 is NIT as you are either 5-11 in q1/2 with no bad losses or 7-9 in q1/2 with two awful losses. The SEC/B12/B10 will all have multiple 10-9 q1/2 teams with no bad losses. Again, metrics will drastically drop with 9 ACC losses. We would be net 50ish…

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

11-9 is NIT as you are either 5-11 in q1/2 with no bad losses or 7-9 in q1/2 with two awful losses. The SEC/B12/B10 will all have multiple 10-9 q1/2 teams with no bad losses. Again, metrics will drastically drop with 9 ACC losses. We would be net 50ish…

You just made the case as why its NCAAT. You'd either have 0 Q3/4 losses. Or just 2 Q3/4 losses and 7-9 in Q1/2, which is good for bubble teams.

Lets break this down:

1 bid leagues: 22

Power 3: 32, which is a lot, it can't get much higher. Bracket Matrix has 31 right now.

High majors (ACC, BE, MWC, WCC, American, A10): 14

Current rankings of the high Majors per Bracket matrix

1. Duke
2. Marquette
3. UConn
4. Gonzaga
5. Memphis
6. Pitt
7. Utah State
8. Clemson
9. Dayton
10. SJU
11. SDSU
12. UNC
12. SMU
14. SMC
15. Louisville

Bracket Matrix currently has 6 ACC teams with UNC and SMU avoiding Dayton and Louisville as the last team in and SEC 14 Missouri as the 1st Team out. The bubble is pretty soft right now, partly because the SEC didn't lose any OOC games so there weren't enough good non-con wins to go around.

As long as we go 11-9, 1-1 and WVU & OSU hold up, we are in.

 

[Jakehyper09]

It's the ACC, so it shouldn't be THAT tough but our next 10 games all happen to be against NCAAT teams or teams that still have a chance. Except Syracuse but that's on the road and I dont think Capel has won there when there wasnt an insurrection going on.

@ Duke
Lou
@ FSU
Clem
@ Syr
UNC
@ Wake
UVa
@ UNC
@ SMU

6-4 would be good. 5-5 acceptable. 4-6 and its back to the bubble.

L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
8-2

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

No, we wouldn't be excited and we wouldn't feel great on Selection Sunday, but assuming we went 1-1 in the ACCT, we'd be 21-12, a non-con SOS in the 20s, and 2 good non-con wins. Even if we win only 8 more games, there either has to be a few good wins in there or no more good wins but no Q3/4 losses if we win just the easiest 8 games. Now, if WVU, OSU, and LSU all tank, we'll be in trouble.

In reality, we'll probably win 2 out of 3 vs Clem, UNC, and Lou at home. Maybe we win 1 or 2 out of 4 vs UNC, SMU, Wake, FSU on the road to give us a Q1. Wake & FSU could be Top 75 by then.

11-9 should be enough. The non-con means almost everything

We really shouldn't lose to anyone at home. Duke, UNC and SMU are probable/possible road losses.

If we are as a good fully healthy as I believe we should be then 17-3 is not unlikely and 15-5 should be the floor, IMHO.

 

[FireballZ]

You forgot Dunn. Major injury.

But Pitt has been able to navigate that injury. It has proven such. I just meant going forward, losing any of those three players for an extended stretch would likely cost them a few wins.

 

[FireballZ]

I can also see them losing by 30 tomorrow and still going like 18-2.

If we can't keep it within 30 against Duke then there is no way that we are talented enough to be as consistent as needed in order to finish 16-1 against any major conference-level schedule.

15-5 would be a great year!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

The bubble is pretty soft right now

The bubble is ALWAYS soft. It's always softer in early January than it is in early March.

It's like some people get their memories completely wiped every year.

 

[Pitt2009]

Do metrics take injuries into play? For instance, a team beats Duke without Cooper Flagg?

 

[H2P2010]

Do metrics take injuries into play? For instance, a team beats Duke without Cooper Flagg?

Most don't. Not the well known metrics at least. Evan Miyakawa does i believe.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The bubble is ALWAYS soft. It's always softer in early January than it is in early March.

It's like some people get their memories completely wiped every year.

No its not. All year last year, I said its a strong bubble. And then when Oregon, NC State, Duquesne, and UAB stole bids, it became the strongest bubble in recent memory, maybe ever.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

No its not. All year last year, I said its a strong bubble. And then when Oregon, NC State, Duquesne, and UAB stole bids, it became the strongest bubble in recent memory, maybe ever.

It only became stronger (not strong, stronger) because of the bid stealers. Before that the bubble last year was thoroughly meh.

Like it always is.