UCF has a path

[UCFKnight85]

That was last year, has nothing to do with this season.

Really simple question: if we are so “bad” according to you, how is it that we beat a team playing for the ACC title to the tune of 45-14?

You are ruining the credibility of your own school by insisting that UCF sucks when it’s utterly ridiculous.

You declared USF a bad team yet they beat GT and Illinois.

Seems to me like you’re someone simply intent on crapping on the AAC as much as possible even if it detracts from your own schools great success. SMH

 

[BFo8]

I usually agree w/ a lot of your takes, but UCF not a top 20 team? That is stupefying...although, you've been very consistent in your pessimistic view of them all year. Doesn't feel very subjective to me. I'm guessing they cost you some coin in the past and you're holding a grudge

Actually not the case. Bet against them twice, one an easy win with Memphis and the other a brutal loss with Temple which was one of my worst beats of the year. I don’t get emotional about wagering, it’s just the cost of doing business.

I just don’t see how anyone who’s watched all their games can compare this team to last years team, which was a legitimate powerhouse. I hyped them all season last year, and deservedly so.

I really think most of you guys are for basing your opinion on them based solely on their performance against Pitt, which was somewhat of an anomaly. It was far and away the best UCF has played this entire season.

 

[BFo8]

Really simple question: if we are so “bad” according to you, how is it that we beat a team playing for the ACC title to the tune of 45-14?

You are ruining the credibility of your own school by insisting that UCF sucks when it’s utterly ridiculous.

You declared USF a bad team yet they beat GT and Illinois.

Seems to me like you’re someone simply intent on crapping on the AAC as much as possible even if it detracts from your own schools great success. SMH

I don’t base anything on fandom, that’s silly. Business is business.

You mean to tell me you actually think your school is as good as they were last year?

And USF sucks. They are horribly coached, and after you guys beat them they will have lost 5 in a row against very average competition, and will undoubtedly get smoked in whatever crappy bowl game they play in. Georgia Tech would be favored over them by at least a TD if they played next week, probably more like 10. Things change in the course of a long season. If Pitt played UCF next week the results would certainly be much different in my estimation.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I think one thing (maybe unfairly because it's not about them) that hurts UCF is how when teams like TCU, Utah, and Louisville joined better conferences, they declined from being like 11-1 teams to 8-4 or 6-6 teams.

Ultimately I think the playoff committee is just skeptical that UCF could win 11+ games if they played 9 or 10 P5 opponents instead of one or two.

 

[BFo8]

I think one thing (maybe unfairly because it's not about them) that hurts UCF is how when teams like TCU, Utah, and Louisville joined better conferences, they declined from being like 11-1 teams to 8-4 or 6-6 teams.

Ultimately I think the playoff committee is just skeptical that UCF could win 11+ games if they played 9 or 10 P5 opponents instead of one or two.

The one team that really hurt was the Utah team with Alex Smith that beat Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.

They could’ve lined up against anyone in the country that year.

 

[FireballZ]

Actually not the case. Bet against them twice, one an easy win with Memphis and the other a brutal loss with Temple which was one of my worst beats of the year. I don’t get emotional about wagering, it’s just the cost of doing business.

I just don’t see how anyone who’s watched all their games can compare this team to last years team, which was a legitimate powerhouse. I hyped them all season last year, and deservedly so.

I really think most of you guys are for basing your opinion on them based solely on their performance against Pitt, which was somewhat of an anomaly. It was far and away the best UCF has played this entire season.

I'm not arguing that they are on the same plane as last year, but more so that you don't think they are a top 20 team. I've seen them 3-4 times. I think they are easily a top 12 team.

 

[UCFKnight85]

I think one thing (maybe unfairly because it's not about them) that hurts UCF is how when teams like TCU, Utah, and Louisville joined better conferences, they declined from being like 11-1 teams to 8-4 or 6-6 teams.

Ultimately I think the playoff committee is just skeptical that UCF could win 11+ games if they played 9 or 10 P5 opponents instead of one or two.

Louisville was on track to contend for a national title, in the AAC in 2013, prior to UCF beating them. They were #5 when we beat them and it was their only loss of the year.

TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012. Just 2 years later they finished 12-1, won the Big 12, and finished #3 in the rankings. With tons of kids who were recruited during their MWC days.

 

[UCFKnight85]

I don’t base anything on fandom, that’s silly. Business is business.

You mean to tell me you actually think your school is as good as they were last year?

And USF sucks. They are horribly coached, and after you guys beat them they will have lost 5 in a row against very average competition, and will undoubtedly get smoked in whatever crappy bowl game they play in. Georgia Tech would be favored over them by at least a TD if they played next week, probably more like 10. Things change in the course of a long season. If Pitt played UCF next week the results would certainly be much different in my estimation.

Yep. I see where this is going. You want me to believe that UCF besting Pitt - by 31 points - was a fluke and it’d be different if we played tomorrow. Just like you apparently think USF beating GT was a fluke. Or ECU annhilating UNC was a fluke. Or Temple destroying Maryland was a fluke.

 

[BFo8]

I'm not arguing that they are on the same plane as last year, but more so that you don't think they are a top 20 team. I've seen them 3-4 times. I think they are easily a top 12 team.

We will agree to disagree I guess.

Not saying this as a homer at all, but I really think if they played again next week Pitt beats them.

My opinion going to look worse when they beat USF convincingly, that South Florida team is hot garbage and going to finish the season on a 6 game losing streak. When Pitt was struggling earlier this year and someone mentioned replacing Narduzzi with Charley Strong I wanted to vomit. He is a trainwreck and will be canned from there in the next couple years.

 

[FireballZ]

We will agree to disagree I guess.

Not saying this as a homer at all, but I really think if they played again next week Pitt beats them.

My opinion going to look worse when they beat USF convincingly, that South Florida team is hot garbage and going to finish the season on a 6 game losing streak. When Pitt was struggling earlier this year and someone mentioned replacing Narduzzi with Charley Strong I wanted to vomit. He is a trainwreck and will be canned from there in the next couple years.

Well, maybe that just means that Pitt is a top 11 team...right now...

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Based purely on opinion and bias against non-power 5 teams. UCF beat Auburn, which beat Bama,

Last year.

They were worthy last year

Aren’t nearly as good this year

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Louisville was on track to contend for a national title, in the AAC in 2013, prior to UCF beating them. They were #5 when we beat them and it was their only loss of the year.

TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012. Just 2 years later they finished 12-1, won the Big 12, and finished #3 in the rankings. With tons of kids who were recruited during their MWC days.

The four years before TCU joined the Big 12 they had 11, 12, 13, and 11 wins. Then it declined to 7 and 4 wins after they joined and Gary Patterson has said they needed to get better in the trenches to compete (even in the "finesse" Big 12.) Their 2014 team was excellent -- but unlike yours they beat something like four ranked opponents to gain a top ranking.

Utah had 13, 10, and 10 wins their three years before joining maybe the weakest P5 conference. Then they declined to 8, 5, and 5 the next three years including 9-18 in conference. Wittingham is one of the best coaches in the country and they're still 4 games under .500 in maybe the weakest P5 conference.

Louisville had 11 and 12 wins in the Big East right before joining the ACC. They haven't hit double digits in the five years since.

It gets a lot harder when your strength of schedule almost automatically hits #45 instead of #105 overnight.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Rutgers is 26 games under .500 after joining the Big 10. Flood was 8-7 in the Big East/AAC.

Pitt was 22-13 in conference the last five years when the Big East was in decline. They went 7-9 their first two years in the ACC, even in what was the easier division.

It's just harder to do it week after week.

 

[upj87]

I don’t base anything on fandom, that’s silly. Business is business.

You mean to tell me you actually think your school is as good as they were last year?

And USF sucks. They are horribly coached, and after you guys beat them they will have lost 5 in a row against very average competition, and will undoubtedly get smoked in whatever crappy bowl game they play in. Georgia Tech would be favored over them by at least a TD if they played next week, probably more like 10. Things change in the course of a long season. If Pitt played UCF next week the results would certainly be much different in my estimation.

You mean to tell me you actually think...that UCF does not have the ability to lose by a score of 38-0 or 31-0 or 59-20 (and this is just in the handful of years the cfp has been in place) that the powers that be determined to be teams "worthy" on inclusion in the playoffs based on their awesome resumes?

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Ucf needs to over schedule hard core, balls to the wall in OOC if they want to be in the mix. Yeah, they scheduled us and ran us off the field but I’m saying 3 P5 schools.

They got us and Stanford next year and FAU and Florida a&m. I didn’t even know Florida a&m existed. They got unc and ga tech in 20. Not bad but you have to go harder. Get that 3rd P5 opponent. It’s the price you have to pay to get in playoffs.

Hell, take a million bucks and play at an sec stadium. If you lose you got a million bucks and you’ll still win your conference. Better off then playing the Florida a& m rattlers, a game that no one cares about and gives detractors more ammo to leave you out.

 

[Mikefln]

Really simple question: if we are so “bad” according to you, how is it that we beat a team playing for the ACC title to the tune of 45-14?

Pitt sucked the beginning of the year. No identity and no confidence. Now we are a Power football team with a lot of confidence. You do realize it is possible to change during the year right? A team can improve, get worse or stagnate. I would venture to say Pitt improved a lot and UCF stagnated. If Pitt and UCF were to play 10 games, i would say it would be an even split 5 and 5.

You declared USF a bad team yet they beat GT and Illinois.

I won't say they are a bad team but they are not a good team either. GT is a good team and that was an accomplishment. Illinois is not a good team, means nothing beating them.

 

[upj87]

Pitt sucked the beginning of the year. No identity and no confidence. Now we are a Power football team with a lot of confidence. You do realize it is possible to change during the year right? A team can improve, get worse or stagnate. I would venture to say Pitt improved a lot and UCF stagnated. If Pitt and UCF were to play 10 games, i would say it would be an even split 5 and 5.



I won't say they are a bad team but they are not a good team either. GT is a good team and that was an accomplishment. Illinois is not a good team, means nothing beating them.

You do realize it is possible to change during the year right? A team can improve, get worse or stagnate. .... Except for, of course, Temple... UCF was just hammered by the arrogant powers that be who are constantly down on them based on their performance against awful Temple... funny thing, look up Temple's last 6 or 7 games...pretty damn good win in my opinion.

 

[Mikefln]

I'm not arguing that they are on the same plane as last year, but more so that you don't think they are a top 20 team. I've seen them 3-4 times. I think they are easily a top 12 team.

You hit the nail on the head, a top 12 team. Not a top 10 let alone top 4 team. I think they are around 11-15 type of team. IMO there are 2 ways to judge teams both are hypothetical but that is what all this is. The first way if the 2 teams play 10 times who do I feel would win more games. The second way is if team A played teams B schedule would they have a better record and vice versa. Using both hypothetical situations I really believe there are 12 teams head and shoulders better than UCF. Then there are about another 10-15 teams right around UCF. With that said undefeated puts UCF ahead of the second group I mentioned. YMMV

 

[Pitt79]

You hit the nail on the head, a top 12 team. Not a top 10 let alone top 4 team. I think they are around 11-15 type of team. IMO there are 2 ways to judge teams both are hypothetical but that is what all this is. The first way if the 2 teams play 10 times who do I feel would win more games. The second way is if team A played teams B schedule would they have a better record and vice versa. Using both hypothetical situations I really believe there are 12 teams head and shoulders better than UCF. Then there are about another 10-15 teams right around UCF. With that said undefeated puts UCF ahead of the second group I mentioned. YMMV

That's all "imagination" based dreaming. That's why they need to have some entry to the playoffs based on winning league championships.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Ucf needs to over schedule hard core, balls to the wall in OOC if they want to be in the mix. Yeah, they scheduled us and ran us off the field but I’m saying 3 P5 schools.

They got us and Stanford next year and FAU and Florida a&m. I didn’t even know Florida a&m existed. They got unc and ga tech in 20. Not bad but you have to go harder. Get that 3rd P5 opponent. It’s the price you have to pay to get in playoffs.

Hell, take a million bucks and play at an sec stadium. If you lose you got a million bucks and you’ll still win your conference. Better off then playing the Florida a& m rattlers, a game that no one cares about and gives detractors more ammo to leave you out.

To be fair to UCF, their athletic director has offered to play any P5 team in the country and almost no one is replying anymore. The Stanford game was scheduled back when they were bad I believe. It'd be harder to get them on the schedule now. Look at how our fans reacted to us playing UCF this year -- they were irate at our administration for having us play a game against a ranked team, especially one we have no historic rivalry against.

That's all "imagination" based dreaming. That's why they need to have some entry to the playoffs based on winning league championships.

There are 11 league champions. That's getting to be a pretty big playoffs. At some point due to the violent and only weekly-schedule nature of football, you are going to have to limit the size more than that and accept at least some of the teams accepted will be based on subjective measures.

 

[UPitt '89]

Really simple question: if we are so “bad” according to you, how is it that we beat a team playing for the ACC title to the tune of 45-14?

You are ruining the credibility of your own school by insisting that UCF sucks when it’s utterly ridiculous.

You declared USF a bad team yet they beat GT and Illinois.

Seems to me like you’re someone simply intent on crapping on the AAC as much as possible even if it detracts from your own schools great success. SMH

PSU beat us by 45 in our house ..... and PSU isn't a playoff-caliber team.

 

[Mikefln]

That's all "imagination" based dreaming. That's why they need to have some entry to the playoffs based on winning league championships.

I agree. Look, would I love to see a 16 team playoff with all 10 conference champs and 6 at large to make it more like the NCAA BBall Tourney? Yes, that would be great to have a Cinderella story every once in a while. But that is not the system in place, and I doubt that system will come to fruition. So based on the system we currently have, I use the criteria I explained to come up with where I believe teams are ranked. Not that it matter because I don't get to pick the top 4.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I agree. Look, would I love to see a 16 team playoff with all 10 conference champs and 6 at large to make it more like the NCAA BBall Tourney? Yes, that would be great to have a Cinderella story every once in a while. But that is not the system in place, and I doubt that system will come to fruition. So based on the system we currently have, I use the criteria I explained to come up with where I believe teams are ranked. Not that it matter because I don't get to pick the top 4.

They're not going to eliminate regular season games because there is too much money at stake for the non playoff teams.

So 12 regular season games + 1 conference championship game + 4 game playoff. Now you're talking 17 games for the champion (18 if they're an opponent of Hawaii.)

That is a lot of games for unpaid student athletes to be crashing into each other.

 

[Mikefln]

They're not going to eliminate regular season games because there is too much money at stake for the non playoff teams.

So 12 regular season games + 1 conference championship game + 4 game playoff. Now you're talking 17 games for the champion (18 if they're an opponent of Hawaii.)

That is a lot of games for unpaid student athletes to be crashing into each other.

I agree, they never should have allowed the 12th game. The season should only be 11, plus get rid of conference championships games, have that be the first round of the playoffs. As far as 18 games if they played at Hawaii, seriously how often will one of the blue bloods (who will most likely be in the semi's year in year out with an occasional G5 team maybe 1 out of 10 years getting this far) play at Hawaii? Those moves right there and you are at 15, just one more than the current setup.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

I agree, they never should have allowed the 12th game. The season should only be 11, plus get rid of conference championships games, have that be the first round of the playoffs. As far as 18 games if they played at Hawaii, seriously how often will one of the blue bloods (who will most likely be in the semi's year in year out with an occasional G5 team maybe 1 out of 10 years getting this far) play at Hawaii? Those moves right there and you are at 15, just one more than the current setup.

I was super excited when they announced the 12th game. I thought, naive I know, that teams would schedule more rivalry games. That this extra week would give college footbsll another week of exciting, competitive out if conference match ups.

I had no clue that this 12th game would be nothing but be used to bring on a scrimmage type game against fcs schools.

 

[upj87]

PSU beat us by 45 in our house ..... and PSU isn't a playoff-caliber team.

psu has three losses (ie that crazy ointment fly that go into playoff caliber discussions)...next...

btw...UCF beat-down was much much more complete and thorough than the psu beat-down...

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

PSU beat us by 45 in our house ..... and PSU isn't a playoff-caliber team.

psu has three losses (ie that crazy ointment fly that go into playoff caliber discussions)...next...

btw...UCF beat-down was much much more complete and thorough than the psu beat-down...

For sure. Pitt looked like the better team for a half vs PSU then field position and turnovers did us in. We looked like a JV team vs UCF

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

For sure. Pitt looked like the better team for a half vs PSU then field position and turnovers did us in. We looked like a JV team vs UCF

Unpopular opinion considering the game was close but Notre Dame impressed me the most of the three in a weird way. Because they played poorly against us in our "better" phase of the season, their coaching staff didn't adjust (ran too much early), and they could still win with defense despite having their worst performance of the year.

 

[Mikefln]

For sure. Pitt looked like the better team for a half vs PSU then field position and turnovers did us in. We looked like a JV team vs UCF

Of all the loses and wins, the refs screwed us the most in a UCF game. It was also a game where we again tried being something Pitt is/was not on offense. The Pitt team of today, would rack up tons of yards and score more points.

 

[TD_6082]

I'm not arguing that they are on the same plane as last year, but more so that you don't think they are a top 20 team. I've seen them 3-4 times. I think they are easily a top 12 team.

I think they are top 20. I think UCF would win again if they played Pitt. They have better athletes right now.

 

[Mikefln]

I think they are top 20. I think UCF would win again if they played Pitt. They have better athletes right now.

They are top 20. I think they can safely be ranked any where from 11-15. They may also have better athletes than Pitt but Pitt has better football players, and if Pitt forced them into a football game instead of a track meet, Pitt would win. It really is a toss up game at this point. In the beginning of the year, UCFm was way better. Now, Pitt closed the gap that much.

 

[TD_6082]

They are top 20. I think they can safely be ranked any where from 11-15. They may also have better athletes than Pitt but Pitt has better football players, and if Pitt forced them into a football game instead of a track meet, Pitt would win. It really is a toss up game at this point. In the beginning of the year, UCFm was way better. Now, Pitt closed the gap that much.

I think you are letting a Coastal Championship and 2 games against bad teams cloud your vision. Pump the brakes a bit. We are a 5 pt underdog to a mediocre Miami team.

 

[upj87]

I think you are letting a Coastal Championship and 2 games against bad teams cloud your vision. Pump the brakes a bit. We are a 5 pt underdog to a mediocre Miami team.

yep, and state penn would probably be about a 3 point dog playing the same game down there...

 

[hermdigity]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

538 has a nice tool that you can plug in results during the season to see the % chances a team will make the playoffs.

No matter how hard you try to get UCF in, the combinations of outcomes occurs in <0.25% of simulations.

 

[andypappas]

Its not likely but not impossible

1. Northwestern wins Big Ten Championship. Mich/OSU would have 2 losses. However, this is the most unlikely of all the things that has to happen.

2. Oklahoma has to lose in Morgantown or vs Texas in Arlington.

3. Alabama wins SEC Championship. UGa and LSU would have 2 losses.

4. Washington State has to lose vs Washington or Utah.

Would a 12-0 UCF team really get left out in favor of a 2-loss Big Ten or SEC team? Would we see a Bama/LSU snoozer in the Cotton Bowl? I'd rather watch the Dollar General Bowl than that.

QUIT DREAMING

You spend way too much time thinking these scenarios up. UCF has no chance to make the playoffs.