Ukraine discussion thread - Use this thread

[Chris Peak]

I am posting this on both football boards just so everyone is on the same page.

We have worked pretty hard over the last couple years to curtail the political discussion on these boards, largely because it is very difficult these days to have civil political discourse. It always - always - turns into name-calling and other such nonsense that violates the express written rules and standards of the message board.

The situation in Ukraine is obviously one of significant international interest, and a community like the ones we have here is inevitably going to discuss it; it's impossible not to. I recognize that and appreciate it, and I made the decision last week to let those discussions take place on the board. However, we have worked hard to try to keep the partisan bickering out of it. When that stuff starts to dominate, it threatens the thread.

So leave it out. Talk about the Russian invasion, talk about the latest news, even talk about the American response - but do it with some level of civility.

Going forward, this will be the primary thread for Ukraine discussion. I think it will be easier to monitor one thread and keep tab on the posts here rather than jumping to different threads and missing posts that should be taken care of. Once this thread gets going, I will pin it so it's always easy to find. Just try to keep it civil.

Thanks.

 

[Chris Peak]

Also, I would add two things:

- The Report function is a valuable one; use it when you see things that you know will derail a thread.

- Feel free to contact me with any concerns, comments, questions or otherwise regarding the board. Thanks.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

Russia invaded Ukraine!

 

[DruidTM]

Glad to see Germany finally on board with providing arms as well to Ukraine. Better late than never.

 

[PittPharm2002]

Looks like the Euros are finally on board with swift sanctions

 

[Pitt2006]

There have been comparisons of how quickly Kyiv will fall to Russia versus how long the US took to take Iraq/Baghdad. So far, it’s been estimated that 4800 Russian soldiers (conscripts) have been killed. About 5200 US soldiers were lost via hostile combat in all of OIF and OEF missions. Patience, quality training, and intelligence reports crucially underrated.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Questions for those with military experience on tactics and strategy.

What the hell is Russia doing? Why does Ukraine still have internet, phone, mobile cell service and power?

Also, did Russia send in the B team with all their old equipment first, while reserving their better troops? Or, is that junk I'm seeing online what their military actually is?

I don't get it. They can't be that bad and that dumb. Is there an alternate strategy?

 

[RaleighPittFan]

Questions for those with military experience on tactics and strategy.

What the hell is Russia doing? Why does Ukraine still have internet, phone, mobile cell service and power?

Also, did Russia send in the B team with all their old equipment first, while reserving their better troops? Or, is that junk I'm seeing online what their military actually is?

I don't get it. They can't be that bad and that dumb. Is there an alternate strategy?

Elon Musk says Starlink is active in Ukraine amid internet disruptions

SpaceX founder Elon Musk said Saturday evening that the company's Starlink satellites are now active in Ukraine to alleviate some of the connectivity challenges the country is facing amid the Russia invasion.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[HailToPitt725]

Questions for those with military experience on tactics and strategy.

What the hell is Russia doing? Why does Ukraine still have internet, phone, mobile cell service and power?

Also, did Russia send in the B team with all their old equipment first, while reserving their better troops? Or, is that junk I'm seeing online what their military actually is?

I don't get it. They can't be that bad and that dumb. Is there an alternate strategy?

I was wondering the same thing. Perhaps they sent in the conscripts and foreign soldiers first and will send in their “real” soldiers later on? Surely this can’t be their actual army, correct?

As someone with no military experience, I’d think they also can’t afford that type of gameplan with how quickly the international community has moved regarding economic sanctions.

 

[Pitt2006]

Questions for those with military experience on tactics and strategy.

What the hell is Russia doing? Why does Ukraine still have internet, phone, mobile cell service and power?

Also, did Russia send in the B team with all their old equipment first, while reserving their better troops? Or, is that junk I'm seeing online what their military actually is?

I don't get it. They can't be that bad and that dumb. Is there an alternate strategy?

You need money and supplies, particularly fuel. Blowing up a few fuel tankers can really disrupt plans as can bridges, rerouting tanks, etc. What good are tanks if they stall in the middle of roads? I would hope the answer is Putin does not want civilian loss of life and is taking things slow. The reality is they likely underestimate resistance and he will grow frustrated and just start leveling everything/one in their path. Yes they are an oil nation, but refined fuel is the gold.

 

[plcp]

He said the word nuclear today. Things have just heated up.

 

[PittPharm2002]

The brilliance of Putin has clearly been overstated .
Though the Twitter feeds are far cleaner with Russia shutting down access
Far less noise

 

[Duneaux Harm]

He said the word nuclear today. Things have just heated up.

He appears to be finished on the world stage at this point. He essentially said western countries are placing sanctions on Russia and have said nasty things about them. Going forward he is completely Alone.

Would it all shock you if there was an internal uprising in the Russian military and government and Putin ends up arrested? I could see it.

 

[BurghGuy68]

He said the word nuclear today. Things have just heated up.

 

[lilspainishflea]

I said pre-invasion that I thought Putin put himself in a lose-lose situation. But this has gone beyond my most optimistic expectations.

- Ukraine's combat performance is remarkable. They're still losing on the ground but they've taken out an astonishing amount of Russian combat strength, including almost 1,000 air assault / paratroopers. They appear to be letting heavily armored units pass them by without engagement while targeting support units like engineers, supply, and military police. They've repulsed attacks on Kiev every single day of the war so far. Their president is a world hero. Amazing stuff.
- Russia's army is poorly led. Morale is low and many are surrendering. There are acute fuel and food shortages throughout the Russian army inside Ukraine. I actually think part of this is from Biden. He declassified lots of intelligence on Russia and forced a multi-week delay of the invasion. That whole time, the Russian army was probably using materiel stockpiled for the war while encamped on the border. Now they don't have it for combat operations. I don't think that was necessarily foreseeable by POTUS, but sometimes you get lucky and are rewarded for doing the right thing.
- I thought that western sanctions would be swift and tough but sanctioning Russia's central bank is next level. It's also fairly impressive that we've been able to corral wayward EU countries like Hungary and Germany into supporting sanctions.
- Germany has agreed to massive investment in its army basically reversing a 30 year trend of neglect.
- Many Russia-friendly politicians, including those in the EU that are openly bankrolled by Russia like Marine Le Pen are abandoning their Russia ties.

Putin spent decades building political and economic influence in the West and he wasted it all for some woodland in Ukraine. Just an incredible blunder. Russia is still probably going to win a battlefield victory on the ground but this is almost a guaranteed strategic loss. Their puppet state won't last 5 minutes without the Russian army and I doubt they can stay and fight off an insurgency for more than a year. I also think it's very unlikely that Putin lives out the rest of his life as President of the Russian Federation given the economic harm he's caused and growing unpopularity of this war. It might take years for Russia to get there but the palace coup - whether that is violent or not - is coming for him.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

It also seems as if their traditional military capabilities have been laid bare. If not for nukes they’d be wiped out rather easily.

And I don’t say that cavalierly. I know it still comes at a heavy cost. I mean relatively sparking.

 

[pittguy81]

Putin is clearly in desperation mode. He's losing the information war, with his disinformation and lies falling on deaf ears worldwide. His military is encountering more resistance than he expected and Western democracies have closed ranks on sanctions that really impact him and his inner circle, including restricting access to SWIFT. Nations, including former Soviet satellite states are closing their airspace to Russian aircraft. China is backing away and limiting access to their banking system.

This was a catastrophic miscalculation by Putin.

 

[Cavalier Panther]

Market open tomorrow will be like nothing we’ve ever seen unless the talks announced today are fruitful.

Several Russian banks are getting cut off from SWIFT. More wild, the ECB and US may freeze Russian foreign currency reserves. Russian debt is now rated junk. Russians who have saved their whole lives and retirees may have a mid-trim Ford Focus worth of buying power to show for it.

there’s no good exit plan for Putin. That’s both reassuring and terrifying.

 

[PittPharm2002]

I said pre-invasion that I thought Putin put himself in a lose-lose situation. But this has gone beyond my most optimistic expectations.

- Ukraine's combat performance is remarkable. They're still losing on the ground but they've taken out an astonishing amount of Russian combat strength, including almost 1,000 air assault / paratroopers. They appear to be letting heavily armored units pass them by without engagement while targeting support units like engineers, supply, and military police. They've repulsed attacks on Kiev every single day of the war so far. Their president is a world hero. Amazing stuff.
- Russia's army is poorly led. Morale is low and many are surrendering. There are acute fuel and food shortages throughout the Russian army inside Ukraine. I actually think part of this is from Biden. He declassified lots of intelligence on Russia and forced a multi-week delay of the invasion. That whole time, the Russian army was probably using materiel stockpiled for the war while encamped on the border. Now they don't have it for combat operations. I don't think that was necessarily foreseeable by POTUS, but sometimes you get lucky and are rewarded for doing the right thing.
- I thought that western sanctions would be swift and tough but sanctioning Russia's central bank is next level. It's also fairly impressive that we've been able to corral wayward EU countries like Hungary and Germany into supporting sanctions.
- Germany has agreed to massive investment in its army basically reversing a 30 year trend of neglect.
- Many Russia-friendly politicians, including those in the EU that are openly bankrolled by Russia like Marine Le Pen are abandoning their Russia ties.

Putin spent decades building political and economic influence in the West and he wasted it all for some woodland in Ukraine. Just an incredible blunder. Russia is still probably going to win a battlefield victory on the ground but this is almost a guaranteed strategic loss. Their puppet state won't last 5 minutes without the Russian army and I doubt they can stay and fight off an insurgency for more than a year. I also think it's very unlikely that Putin lives out the rest of his life as President of the Russian Federation given the economic harm he's caused and growing unpopularity of this war. It might take years for Russia to get there but the palace coup - whether that is violent or not - is coming for him.

As you note. The us role in rallying the world powers against Putin has been impressive , even better to support the EU to lead -
To avoid the US vs Russia narrative Putin was clearly hoping for
Seems the actual 4D chess players are the us state dept

 

[gopitt1976]

Questions for those with military experience on tactics and strategy.

What the hell is Russia doing? Why does Ukraine still have internet, phone, mobile cell service and power?

Also, did Russia send in the B team with all their old equipment first, while reserving their better troops? Or, is that junk I'm seeing online what their military actually is?

I don't get it. They can't be that bad and that dumb. Is there an alternate strategy?

Study up on the recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan quickly wiped out Armenia who was armed with russian equipment. Azerbaijan used mostly Turkish made UAV's to wipe out Armenia forces. Some speculate these drones are also armed with directed energy weapons (lasers). Ukraine has many of these drones from Turkey. Russia will need to cut the power to Ukraine soon. The 4 active nuclear power plants in Ukraine dont like no power. Its needed run the pumps to cool the reactors (see Fukishma). Scary situation. The longer this drags out the worse it will be for everyone.

Turkey (NATO) announcing it will cut off the Black Sea to russian ships provides a trigger point for NATO to exchange fire directly with Russia. We all know what that could lead to. Imagine Russia taking out a US carrier battle group with a tactical nuke. Things could spiral out of control quickly.

Praying for cooler heads to prevail here.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Putin is clearly in desperation mode. He's losing the information war, with his disinformation and lies falling on deaf ears worldwide. His military is encountering more resistance than he expected and Western democracies have closed ranks on sanctions that really impact him and his inner circle, including restricting access to SWIFT. Nations, including former Soviet satellite states are closing their airspace to Russian aircraft. China is backing away and limiting access to their banking system.

This was a catastrophic miscalculation by Putin.

I mentioned this before and I have heard numerous inferences to it, but maybe Putin is suffering from dementia or some other ailment that has affected his judgement.

 

[pittguy81]

I mentioned this before and I have heard numerous inferences to it, but maybe Putin is suffering from dementia or some other ailment that has affected his judgement.

I think he simply believed he could invade and take over Ukraine rather easily and the West wouldn't have the stones to stop him....just like when he annexed Georgia and Crimea. This is the beginning of the end for Vlad Putin.

 

[gopitt1976]

Study up on the recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan quickly wiped out Armenia who was armed with russian equipment. Azerbaijan used mostly Turkish made UAV's to wipe out Armenia forces. Some speculate these drones are also armed with directed energy weapons (lasers). Ukraine has many of these drones from Turkey. Russia will need to cut the power to Ukraine soon. The 4 active nuclear power plants in Ukraine dont like no power. Its needed run the pumps to cool the reactors (see Fukishma). Scary situation. The longer this drags out the worse it will be for everyone.

Turkey (NATO) announcing it will cut off the Black Sea to russian ships provides a trigger point for NATO to exchange fire directly with Russia. We all know what that could lead to. Imagine Russia taking out a US carrier battle group with a tactical nuke. Things could spiral out of control quickly.

Praying for cooler heads to prevail here.

This scenario could play out quickly

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

""

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

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This scenario could play out quickly

Oh that was comforting.

 

[HailToPitt725]

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So essentially they’re putting their military ground assets in place for when they use a larger insurgence force?

 

[PittPharm2002]

So essentially they’re putting their military ground assets in place for when they use a larger insurgence force?

Seems a stupid strategy if occupying Ukraine is actually Putin’s goal. He should move hard and fast - because the longer this plays out the more likely an international military effort will be aligned next to repel Russia

 

[BurghGuy68]

I mentioned this before and I have heard numerous inferences to it, but maybe Putin is suffering from dementia or some other ailment that has affected his judgement.

Someone mentioned it yesterday that he surrounded himself with Yes Men and was overconfident as a result in all his moves and decisions.

 

[PittPharm2002]

Someone mentioned it yesterday but he surrounded himself with Yes Men and was overconfident as a result in all his moves and decisions.

Only very weak people are afraid of contradiction of opinions in advisors .

putin has successfully engaged in internationally disinformation campaign primarily through social media and financial influence of a few politicians -

But those efforts were mistaken as “strength” because he’s a bald faced and shameless liar .

 

[happjack]

Putin underestimated almost everything in this invasion. He thought NATO was fractured after four years or Trump trying to break it up, he thought the EU was unstable due to Brexit, he thought China would have his back, he believed his own propaganda about Biden even though Biden was two steps ahead with the release of intel reports exposing Russia’s plans, along with the negotiations that stalled the invasion which allowed the Ukrainians to prepare and forward Russian troops to use up supplies, and the biggest is he vastly underestimated the tactics and the fight of the Ukrainians.

 

[BurghGuy68]

Putin underestimated almost everything in this invasion. He thought NATO was fractured after four years or Trump trying to break it up, he thought the EU was unstable due to Brexit, he thought China would have his back, he believed his own propaganda about Biden even though Biden was two steps ahead with the release of intel reports exposing Russia’s plans, along with the negotiations that stalled the invasion which allowed the Ukrainians to prepare and forward Russian troops to use up supplies, and the biggest is he vastly underestimated the tactics and the fight of the Ukrainians.

Good post!

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

So essentially they’re putting their military ground assets in place for when they use a larger insurgence force?

Good question. These folks are experts in Russian military tactics and can't figure it out.

So many pics and vids of Ukrainians scavenging abandoned Russian equipment. Having the same equipment ends up being a benefit.

Another thing I've read is the Ukrainian military is well versed in Russian tactics since senior leaders were trained the same way.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Someone mentioned it yesterday that he surrounded himself with Yes Men and was overconfident as a result in all his moves and decisions.

Sounds somewhat familiar

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Only very weak people are afraid of contradiction of opinions in advisors .

putin has successfully engaged in internationally disinformation campaign primarily through social media and financial influence of a few politicians -

But those efforts were mistaken as “strength” because he’s a bald faced and shameless liar .

Not necessarily "weak" in some respects, but incredibly ego centric.

 

[happjack]

Good question. These folks are experts in Russian military tactics and can't figure it out.

So many pics and vids of Ukrainians scavenging abandoned Russian equipment. Having the same equipment ends up being a benefit.

Another thing I've read is the Ukrainian military is well versed in Russian tactics since senior leaders were trained the same way.

Yeah, it’s like Super Bowl XXXVII when Tampa knew everything Oakland was going to do since Callahan didn’t change the playbooks.

 

[Panther Parrothead]

The brilliance of Putin has clearly been overstated .

Putin has the "brilliance" of a big, nasty drunk who bullies a smaller, seemingly harmless guy at a gathering. Other people witness it and are reluctant to get involved, but no one with a brain thinks the perpetrator is brilliant.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I’m not nearly as well informed or educated as some on geo political issues but it certainly does seem that ole Vlad severely underestimated what the response would be to this invasion. And I would think there’s a good chance there will be long term repercussions as a result. And as what happens with bullies when you stand up to them, he’ll be forever weakened.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I’m not nearly as well informed or educated as some on geo political issues but it certainly does seem that ole Vlad severely underestimated what the response would be to this invasion. And I would think there’s a good chance there will be long term repercussions as a result. And as what happens with bullies when you stand up to them, he’ll be forever weakened.

 

[kma0043]

It’d be nice to see Putin removed through a coup or other means, but Russia has never had a true democracy in its history, so the next guy will likely have an autocratic outlook as well. I still think Russia is fighting with one hand behind its back; someone earlier said it’s like Russia’s JV team out there.