There's hardly any ACC talent here, they are going to stink and stink badly. We can see imo some Stallings type of blowouts. This season is going to be an unmitigated disaster.
What are the expectations for the program now?
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
Well at least you're not expecting much. So it should be a relaxing season for you
No way. It won't be relaxing. I do expect a lot. There is no excuse for our program to be as bad as the pundits are predicting in year 4 of Capel. But that's what happens when you can't coach, can't recruit and plug all your holes with MAC talent from the portal.
Yea but at 6-14, it would at least give me hope that the team could up that to 9 or 10 the next year and make the NIT. If they only win 3 or 4 this year, its a sign that this core will probably never get to the NCAAT.
I agree. And they get BC twice. Assuming they win those two, it would be a really, really bad sign if they can’t win 4 of the other 18 games.
If he wins 6 or 7 ACC games it will all come down to next year, when these sophomores are Juniors. If he wins 3 or 4…anything could happen IMO
The league just isn't strong. It isn't strong at the top, the middle, or the bottom. 6 wins should be the minimum for this year assuming we make it through the majority of the year without key injury issues. The league is getting unjustified hype in the preseason. I could say the same thing nationally, in that, I think there are about 5 teams that look really good going in on paper and then a bunch of questionable selections in the preseason rankings. I think that this will be, outside the 1 seeds, a very upset happy NCAA tournament in March once again.
Winning only 3 or 4 acc games this year should bring some heavy questions to Jeff Capel at season end. I don't think that happens.
Nothing wrong with setting high expectations but it’s also good to be in touch with reality. You wanna twist yourself in knots have at it. But I’m not expecting anything. Vader can throw out all the stats he wants to (and I don’t claim to understand most of them). But I’m expecting bottom 4 again so I’m not gonna go ballistic after or during games. If they do a bit better then great. And if recruiting doesn’t pick up sooner than later id also expect Capel’s not gonna be around much longer. He looked over ‘21 for ‘22 according to some. And I think I saw someone talking about ‘23. Please.
As much of a mess as it was he’s responsible for where it is now lock stock and barrel.
While the ACC isn’t strong, we do play 10 games against what are probably teams 4-8 in the league or around there (VT, UVA, ND, Cuse, Lousiville - in some order). Add to that 3 games against the top 3 and that’s 13 pretty challenging games. Can we go 4-9 in those 13, beat BC twice, and then split the four games against Miami, GT, NcST, Wake. If you are trying to be really optimistic and say we get to 8 ACC wins, that’s the path.
The ACC doesn't have ANY elite teams. As bad as Pitt is, the league is so bad that there's no "guaranteed losses." If Pitt plays well, they can beat anyone on a given night. Pitt has been in other leagues where there have been 4-5 1 or 2 seed type teams who could never lose to bad teams. The ACC doesn't have that. Duke is ranked 9th but you never know how good those frosh will be. UNC is 19th, FSU 20th, and UVa 25th.
The ACC is bad, really bad. If this team cant beat BC twice and go 4-14 in their other games, that is a horrible sign.
I've been saying this on here
for months. The ACC is not
strong, and the bottom
third is almost wide open.
We are in that bottom third,
and IMO we're at the bottom
of that third along with BC, and
WF. We play BC twice. However
we only play WF once. I feel if
Capel gets them to buy in and
play together we can win some,
how many?.....no idea yet until
I see them in real time. I don't
believe it's realistic to think we
can beat anyone on any given
night.
We will get an idea in the OOC
games where we play St. John's,
WVU, Minnesota, and Vanderbuilt.
Can we beat any of those? Can we
beat the rest of the OOC teams?
Those two questions will tell us
a lot.
I am not predicting this but the ACC is soooo bad that I wouldn't be totally shocked if we won 8-10 league games. I am predicting 6 but if Hugley is a legit 5 and Femi turns out to be an all-league type PG, I think we can get to the middle if we get good play from the role players. But again, that's because the league sucks.
The league does suck.
I think unc, duke, vtech, nd. Are your improving teams. Everyone else is marginally better or worse or much worse. I think that leaves alot of room for a messy season with a decent amount of surprises
This was the season I was waiting for, the year when we would breakout.
A team of:
X
Trey
Justin
Tony
All grown up and mature. Add Femi, Hugley and Jefferess this would be a 23-7 type team capable of winning the ACC.
However, for whatever reason Capel was not able to get the talent to mesh.
Watching the inter squad scrimmage it looks like we could be in for a long year. The good thing is it was early and there is time for improvement.
A team of:
X
Trey
Justin
Tony
All grown up and mature. Add Femi, Hugley and Jefferess this would be a 23-7 type team capable of winning the ACC.
However, for whatever reason Capel was not able to get the talent to mesh.
Watching the inter squad scrimmage it looks like we could be in for a long year. The good thing is it was early and there is time for improvement.
As bad as the ACC is, based on talent alone a starting 5 of
PG Femi
SG Johnson (dont think X could have remained PG)
SF Toney
PF Champagnie
C Hugley
is good enough to actually win or finish in the top 3 of the league. That is a very talented lineup but they played horribly together as a team so they probably would have went 7-13
I think we’re looking at a rough year but one that could potentially truly be a stepping stone long-term if Capel has really fixed the culture issues.
I’m not going to get too caught up in wins/losses but this needs to be a home run year in two areas:
1. Development
2. Recruiting around Mintz
Odukale, Hugley, Jeffress, etc all need to take steps forward to being quality ACC starters. Back filling with transfers at this point it’s fine but if this thing is going to work, the bulk of our roster needs to be homegrown kids that we develop and hold onto for 3-4 years. If we can at least get those three to the point that we saw X/Toney get to where they are solid to strong ACC caliber players, then we’ve got something to build on.
I’m effusive in my praise of Mintz. He’s what the coaches like to a call “a dude” but there’s got to be more. Keep pushing and go like hell for any potentially impactful decommits in the Spring. Getting a guy like him is a gift and we cannot waste it by not surrounding him with a strong class. As a Pitt fan I’m prone to assuming the worst, so I hope we’re doing everything to stay on Mintz and ensure he’s comfortable with where this thing is going and what his role will be
I’m not going to get too caught up in wins/losses but this needs to be a home run year in two areas:
1. Development
2. Recruiting around Mintz
Odukale, Hugley, Jeffress, etc all need to take steps forward to being quality ACC starters. Back filling with transfers at this point it’s fine but if this thing is going to work, the bulk of our roster needs to be homegrown kids that we develop and hold onto for 3-4 years. If we can at least get those three to the point that we saw X/Toney get to where they are solid to strong ACC caliber players, then we’ve got something to build on.
I’m effusive in my praise of Mintz. He’s what the coaches like to a call “a dude” but there’s got to be more. Keep pushing and go like hell for any potentially impactful decommits in the Spring. Getting a guy like him is a gift and we cannot waste it by not surrounding him with a strong class. As a Pitt fan I’m prone to assuming the worst, so I hope we’re doing everything to stay on Mintz and ensure he’s comfortable with where this thing is going and what his role will be
There are still so many factors at play with the actual wins and losses not mattering all that much.
If we have a magical 10-10 campaign (with this group it would be) and an NIT berth on the heels of Mo and Nike, but Capel brings nothing with Mintz, are we really that excited?
Obviously Femi and others would need to play well, but there still isn't enough in the pipeline. Capel missing on Dunn/Skillings really soured me on him. We are going to end up with backup plans again to go with Mintz who admittedly was a BIG get.
If we have a magical 10-10 campaign (with this group it would be) and an NIT berth on the heels of Mo and Nike, but Capel brings nothing with Mintz, are we really that excited?
Obviously Femi and others would need to play well, but there still isn't enough in the pipeline. Capel missing on Dunn/Skillings really soured me on him. We are going to end up with backup plans again to go with Mintz who admittedly was a BIG get.
I would just like to see team basketball this year. There is enough talent here to be reasonably competitive in the acc. Give me 16-19 wins and no transfers and one more excellent recruit to team up with Mintz and I would be pretty happy with Capel and staff.
I'd be pretty darn happy with this too.
Well, this is college basketball so at least 3 will transfer. Just a matter of who.
Over the last two years, he has brought in one prep, Santos, and has one committed in this class.
I think we're going to see a similar process for Capel as we've seen with Narduzzi. We're going to tolerate a lot of "mediocre" while the AD holds out hope that we get some lucky bounces sooner or later. Unfortunately, Capel has been more "bad" than "mediocre," but I suppose that is subjective.
Capel is not going to bottom out in the way that Stallings did. I think they're going to give Capel every opportunity to salvage something in the program. Capel is the devil we know, and it's just as likely we'd hire some other mid-major coach who might spend 4 years losing here.
I'm not saying it is hopeless, but there is a strategy in letting Capel stick around long enough that everyone forgets Kevin Stallings ever existed. As long as Capel is getting good press and giving genuine effort, I think he'll be around a few more years.
Another consideration that I haven't seen mentioned is what the perceived COVID impact to Pitt will be. Pitt obviously had an attendance problem long before the virus, but it would be extremely difficult to predict what sort of fanbase will return for Pitt basketball. To pay Capel severance and try again to spend for the hottest guy on the market in March would be super risky given we have no idea what revenue Pitt can rely on. It seems much more responsible for Pitt to pay the salaries on the books for another two years at least and then re-evaluate their entire approach to basketball.
Capel is not going to bottom out in the way that Stallings did. I think they're going to give Capel every opportunity to salvage something in the program. Capel is the devil we know, and it's just as likely we'd hire some other mid-major coach who might spend 4 years losing here.
I'm not saying it is hopeless, but there is a strategy in letting Capel stick around long enough that everyone forgets Kevin Stallings ever existed. As long as Capel is getting good press and giving genuine effort, I think he'll be around a few more years.
Another consideration that I haven't seen mentioned is what the perceived COVID impact to Pitt will be. Pitt obviously had an attendance problem long before the virus, but it would be extremely difficult to predict what sort of fanbase will return for Pitt basketball. To pay Capel severance and try again to spend for the hottest guy on the market in March would be super risky given we have no idea what revenue Pitt can rely on. It seems much more responsible for Pitt to pay the salaries on the books for another two years at least and then re-evaluate their entire approach to basketball.
You make a lot of good points
about Capel. IMO as long as he
keeps coming across as a good
representative of the university,
and his players off the floor
don't embarrass the program,
he'll be here for another year
or two.
The question is, how long will
Pitt put up with losing seasons?
Also, how long will they put up
with losing $$? As of now he
has one very good recruit on
the way (hopefully). If he adds
substantially to that, it will
help his situation. We need more
than just average talent. If not,
we will continue to lose, and
he'll be gone.
It's hard to know if/how many tickets Pitt is still holding back for potential season tickets and mini-plans, but they are now selling individual non-conference games so you can see what seats are now on sale and what seats are either taken or being held back. I'm not saying they've sold a lot of season tickets, but if what is available for the The Citadel accurately reflects what tickets have been sold as season tickets, they've sold more season tickets than I thought they would, and a lot more than I feared they would.
I didn't look but what I would have guessed like 2000 so if its significantly more than that, great
I love Capel the person, but I'm really struggling with where the program is at this point. I'm not caught up in wins or losses this year, call me crazy. I need to see the foundational blocks of a program built. I really thought last year we were seeing that happen in real time up until the Duke game. I'm gonna give Capel a pass on the Johnson/Toney/Mcgowens/Justin crapshow because talk about dysfunctional. The first three mainly came in late in the process for a reason and I wish them nothing but the best, all decent talents, they just didn't work together for many reasons. Happy that Justin is getting to live out his dream and getting paid for it.
I think part of the problem in how I see it, is, there is a lot of different ways to win playing college basketball; whether its a get old stay, old type deal where we won in the past, a pace and space offense where it's 3-pointers and layups that's analytically driven, a program that wins with transfers everywhere, a slow grind it out, own the boards and play defense like your tail is on fire. Right now Pitt is none of these, but, when the clock strikes zero in their last game of the year: I NEED to know what this program is trying to accomplish and how. If I have no clue which way this staff is trying to go, by that point, then find someone that can instill an identity.
I think part of the problem in how I see it, is, there is a lot of different ways to win playing college basketball; whether its a get old stay, old type deal where we won in the past, a pace and space offense where it's 3-pointers and layups that's analytically driven, a program that wins with transfers everywhere, a slow grind it out, own the boards and play defense like your tail is on fire. Right now Pitt is none of these, but, when the clock strikes zero in their last game of the year: I NEED to know what this program is trying to accomplish and how. If I have no clue which way this staff is trying to go, by that point, then find someone that can instill an identity.
I know that Dan Fisher made some comments recently about the volleyball program having a lot of attention in their 2019 season and struggling to get those eyeballs back.
We all know Pitt fans are a miserly bunch, so I wouldn't put my money on everyone rushing back to see a 5-15 team.
I think something that’s gone under-discussed is that (IMO) I don’t think the Penguins are geared to seriously compete for a Cup anymore, and that will only become more true with each passing season. There’s a real opportunity to carve out some of that cache and grab those eyeballs just like Pitt hoops did in the early/mid 2000s. Just gotta take advantage of the opportunity.
I don't think that people are going to be rushing back. But quite frankly, after the last several seasons and with everything that has gone on the last year and a half keeping some people at home I was worried that they might have trouble getting more than a thousand or so season ticket holders. As I said, you can never say for sure it they are holding tickets back or not, but if they aren't they've sold more season tickets than I expected.
Still not a lot, but more than I expected.
I was surprised there was a full house for last night's Pitt/UMass soccer game. I know it only seats 750 or so but still.
My hope is for a bare winning season at 9-2 OOC + 7-13 ACC + 1-1 ACCT = 17-16
My expectation is for a disappointing 7-4 OOC + 5-15 ACC + 0-1 ACCT = 12-20
Capel's history here says 12-20 is a likely scenario. Getting to 17-16 can only happen if there is a really together team whose sum of its parts will exceed the sum of its individual talent.
My expectation is for a disappointing 7-4 OOC + 5-15 ACC + 0-1 ACCT = 12-20
Capel's history here says 12-20 is a likely scenario. Getting to 17-16 can only happen if there is a really together team whose sum of its parts will exceed the sum of its individual talent.
Id feel comfortable going to a soccer game and have gone to all the home football games but probably won't go to any indoor basketball games yet, mostly bc I have young kids.
Ahead of big weekend, Pitt volleyball coach Dan Fisher believes his team can win it all
Dan Fisher doesn’t mince words when talking about the ceiling of his Pitt volleyball team. “This is the most talent we’ve ever had. The...
www.post-gazette.com
I expected a much larger crowd for their GT match. Pitt had actually pulled out all the upper deck bleachers for more capacity and didn't need it. That was at the same time as a Steeler game, so it makes sense, but still disappointing.
I think it is possible that some of those basketball seats were sold during the summer/fall when the rules and restrictions weren't really published. People may be more excited to come back mentally than they will feel in their seats.
Both your "hope" and your
"expectation" make sense.
Here's why. Your 9-2 OOC is
maybe possible. We'd have to
beat Minnesota and Vandy
at home, lose to WVU and
St. John's on the road, and
beat the remaining patsies.
And YES, they are patsies.
The 7-13 is a stretch, but for
now I'll go with it if somehow
this group blends together
and beats some of the poor
ACC teams in the bottom
third of the league.
Your second scenario is maybe
more realistic IMO. We could
lose all four OOC major Div 1
games and beat the remaining
patsies. The 5-15 ACC record
is not far fetched given this
mix of players. Hard to tell which
of your two scenarios will come
true without seeing them in real
time. Anyway, good, realistic
scenarios.
