What is NFL Parity?

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

It's when the 8-2 Steelers - who have defeated five teams that would be in the playoffs if they began today and who are seemingly really coming into their own - are only 3.5-point favorites against a 2-8 team on its backup quarterback that just got spanked by a scrub team.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

It's when the 8-2 Steelers - who have defeated five teams that would be in the playoffs if they began today and who are seemingly really coming into their own - are only 3.5-point favorites against a 2-8 team on its backup quarterback that just got spanked by a scrub team.

tough game to bet. crappy weather, tomlin's record on away thursday night games is awful, throw in rivalry game, short week.

i'd avoid it. something is off with that line being so low.

i think the rain/snow and wind should help the steelers since Winston is coming off a 400 yard game. That's just a guess though, everytime i think the weather will effect a game one way or the other, the opposite seems to happen..

 

[pittdan77]

It's when the 8-2 Steelers - who have defeated five teams that would be in the playoffs if they began today and who are seemingly really coming into their own - are only 3.5-point favorites against a 2-8 team on its backup quarterback that just got spanked by a scrub team.

Weather?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Weather?

Could be. I was just thinking the rivalry aspect and the fact that we've struggled in that stadium lately. I remember a game a few weeks ago where the 2-6 Jets were favored over the 6-2 Texans and they covered. Makes me long for a salary cap in baseball, because it does make things more interesting.

 

[Burgh15]

Short week and a division road game. Factor in cold and rain and this has the makings of an ugly game.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

Who knows - I’m just happy you didn’t say parody.

 

[pittdan77]

Could be. I was just thinking the rivalry aspect and the fact that we've struggled in that stadium lately. I remember a game a few weeks ago where the 2-6 Jets were favored over the 6-2 Texans and they covered. Makes me long for a salary cap in baseball, because it does make things more interesting.

Not sure it's the salary cap but that's another discussion. I think Vegas understands Tomlin and saw how giddy he was with six field goals to beat the Ravens despite the fact the offense was so bad in that game.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Short week and a division road game. Factor in cold and rain and this has the makings of an ugly game.

Cold and snow may be more accurate than cold and rain. I’m an hour south of Cleveland and it’s been snowing all morning, a good bit of accumulation already. I’d expect it’s worse up North due to the lake effect.

And even without any weather problems, 3.5 pt spread doesn’t seem all that surprising considering at Cleveland, Thursday game, divisional rival and past history. Didn’t the Browns 3rd string QB just beat us last year and wasn’t he an inexperienced rookie at the time (ex-UCLA QB)?

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

tomlin has a very bad record on away thursday night games, i honestly dont know if such things are considered when setting betting lines.

 

[pittdan77]

tomlin has a very bad record on away thursday night games, i honestly dont know if such things are considered when setting betting lines.

I would guess that it's considered on some level. Those Vegas guys don't miss much.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

I would guess that it's considered on some level. Those Vegas guys don't miss much.

yeah, they kind of have it figured out.

Im not a huge gambler anymore, mainly cause i hate losing money. What irritates me is betting money line. So in theory, steelers are what, minus 3.5. So if you bet the browns straight up to win, you get 168 bucks for every 100 bucks you bet. If you bet the steelers to win, then you'll have to bet 200 bucks to win 100.

OK, i get it, makes a ton of sense. BUT what irritates me is they also put "juice" on that. not just the 10% but sometimes like 20 or 30%. i hate that, the money line should just be normal bet, 10% juice and that's it but they are putting an extra hit on it.

They also do it if you are betting the spread. Higher "juice" hits for different bets. i dont get that. So you take the browns + 3.5 but you have to pay 20% on it, why not just make it lower (or higher) and keep it at 10%?


It's almost like they want to make MORE money off of us..

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

tomlin has a very bad record on away thursday night games, i honestly dont know if such things are considered when setting betting lines.

Steelers are 4-12-1 against the spread as an away team on Thursday night. Browns are 8-3 as a home team.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Steelers are 4-12-1 against the spread as an away team on Thursday night. Browns are 8-3 as a home team.

there was a stat years ago and it's probably outdated now with thur night football but on national tv games, aka Sun night and Monday night football, when the home team was an underdog they covered over 85% of the time..

It was pretty crazy stat. Again, i saw this years ago, back when sun night was just kind of getting as big as MNF and well before Thur night games.

Always get useful information like this AFTER the fact though, am i right.

 

[pittdan77]

yeah, they kind of have it figured out.

Im not a huge gambler anymore, mainly cause i hate losing money. What irritates me is betting money line. So in theory, steelers are what, minus 3.5. So if you bet the browns straight up to win, you get 168 bucks for every 100 bucks you bet. If you bet the steelers to win, then you'll have to bet 200 bucks to win 100.

OK, i get it, makes a ton of sense. BUT what irritates me is they also put "juice" on that. not just the 10% but sometimes like 20 or 30%. i hate that, the money line should just be normal bet, 10% juice and that's it but they are putting an extra hit on it.

They also do it if you are betting the spread. Higher "juice" hits for different bets. i dont get that. So you take the browns + 3.5 but you have to pay 20% on it, why not just make it lower (or higher) and keep it at 10%?


It's almost like they want to make MORE money off of us..

The casino always wins has been true since the concept was created. The fact that they have figured out how to take more and more is a testament to believing in math and letting the nerds run the show.

 

[upj87]

It's when the 8-2 Steelers - who have defeated five teams that would be in the playoffs if they began today and who are seemingly really coming into their own - are only 3.5-point favorites against a 2-8 team on its backup quarterback that just got spanked by a scrub team.

I would hazard a guess that home underdogs in divisional games have covered more than they have not ( see Ravens/Steelers Bears/Packers circa four days ago) over the course of decades...contempt breeds familiarity which produces close games...

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I would hazard a guess that home underdogs in divisional games have covered more that they have not over the course of decades...contempt breeds familiarity which produces close games...

That's absolutely part of it. But, while not entirely apples to apples, I don't think the line in Georgia vs Georgia Tech, for example, is going to be 3.5 any time soon.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Who knows - I’m just happy you didn’t say parody.

Glad I didn't phase you and was instead able to peak your interest.

 

[upj87]

That's absolutely part of it. But, while not entirely apples to apples, I don't think the line in Georgia vs Georgia Tech, for example, is going to be 3.5 any time soon.

uh, that's kind of apples to 57 Chevys....The oddest line I have seen this year and I'm not sure why I did not bet the house on it was the Jets (-1.5) in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago....made absolutely no sense whatsoever..

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

uh, that's kind of apples to 57 Chevys....The oddest line I have seen this year and I'm not sure why I did not bet the house on it was the Jets (-1.5) in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago....made absolutely no sense whatsoever..

There's more turnover in college - yeah. But this would have been the case even pre rampant transferring. My point was just that it's a better product when the playing field is leveled.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

there was a stat years ago and it's probably outdated now with thur night football but on national tv games, aka Sun night and Monday night football, when the home team was an underdog they covered over 85% of the time..

It was pretty crazy stat. Again, i saw this years ago, back when sun night was just kind of getting as big as MNF and well before Thur night games.

Always get useful information like this AFTER the fact though, am i right.

Home dog on Monday night has been a play forever. Beano Cook loved him some home dogs in college football.

The public typically gravitates towards the favorites.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

It's when the 8-2 Steelers - who have defeated five teams that would be in the playoffs if they began today and who are seemingly really coming into their own - are only 3.5-point favorites against a 2-8 team on its backup quarterback that just got spanked by a scrub team.

yep. In the NFL, everyone is good. Razor thin differences between teams, usually comes down to QB.

It always cracked me up when people suggested that some of those Alabama teams could have beat the 0-16 Lions. I loved the comeback for that....Alabama might have 10-12 starters make an NFL roster (which is excellent). The Lions have everyone on their team make an NFL roster.

 

[Dointhatrag]

Tomlin 0-5 Thursdays on the road against division opponents. This is a clear Tomlin crap the bed game.

 

[NCanton Panther]

uh, that's kind of apples to 57 Chevys....The oddest line I have seen this year and I'm not sure why I did not bet the house on it was the Jets (-1.5) in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago....made absolutely no sense whatsoever..

That prior Jets game was in Winnipeg not Pittsburgh. But if you’re anxious to bet on the Jets in Pittsburgh, that’s happening tomorrow. I don’t know what the spread is but I’m guessing if you liked the Jets at -1.5 previously thinking it was in Pittsburgh tomorrow’s should be an appealing spread for you.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

That prior Jets game was in Winnipeg not Pittsburgh. But if you’re anxious to bet on the Jets in Pittsburgh, that’s happening tomorrow. I don’t know what the spread is but I’m guessing if you liked the Jets at -1.5 previously thinking it was in Pittsburgh tomorrow’s should be an appealing spread for you.

Say whatttt? I think he's referring to the Aaron Rodgers Jets. Unless I'm just missing the sarcasm, which is possible.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Say whatttt? I think he's referring to the Aaron Rodgers Jets. Unless I'm just missing the sarcasm, which is possible.

Oops, my bad. Don't know why my mind immediately thought Pens-Jets there in what is a football thread. I guess just because the Pens are playing the Jets tomorrow plus I was just reading the Pens thread before this one.

 

[pittdan77]

Tomlin 0-5 Thursdays on the road against division opponents. This is a clear Tomlin crap the bed game.

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