ADVERTISEMENT

When building from 0, you cant afford misses

Sean Miller Fan

All P I T T !
Oct 30, 2001
70,607
23,082
113
We all agree that Capel had an extremely difficult job cleaning up Stallings's mess. He was left with only a few ACC-level players. But since this was the case, it puts an emphasis on recruiting and player evaluation because you really cant afford any "misses." You're starting at 0. You dont have anyone else in the system you can rely on in Years 3 and 4 so you have to be right on the guys you sign, otherwise the rebuild will take longer than anyone hopes. Lets review:

Marcus Carr - miss - You cant really blame incoming coaches for player transfers but Carr has clearly become a high level D1 PG.

Parker Stewart - miss - good shooter with great height who can get his shot off. Cant blame Capel as Stewart seems to be a different kind of kid. But he would have greatly helped. That said, if Carr and Stewart stayed, we may not have gotten Johnson and McGowens

Trey McGowens - miss - This is assuming he transfers. If he does, this is a miss, no question about it. The 2 years he contributed wouldn't have been good enough

Ryan Murphy - miss

Gerald Drumgoole - miss - looks to be an A10 level player. Maybe by Year 3 or 4, he can contribute

AKC - developmental big. Wont be a plus player until at least Year 3, maybe Year 4, if ever. May end up as a miss.

So this means out of 2 classes, Capel has only brought in 3 players (Johnson, Toney, Champagnie) that are currently ACC-level and I still feel like Johnson is going to transfer as well leaving us with only 2 next season if McGowens goes as well.

I know some people are excited about next year's class but Hugley is the only one that is expected to step in and contribute. Amadasun is a lottery ticket. There's probably a 90% chance he wont amount to much. That's just reality with bigs ranked that low. Collier seems like he could be a good player in his junior or senior season but he isnt going to do anything more than eat some minutes next season.

Capel hasn't proved that he can outcoach or outscheme his opponents. He needs talent and going into Year 3, he isn't going to have enough of it and that's on him.
 
Of course he isn't going to have enough of it. It's called rebuilding from nothing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ThePanthers
A Johnson transfer would make no sense, if he leaves it’s to go pro. McGowens on the other hand.... but I wouldn’t go as far as expecting it. His demeanor on the court has always bugged me, but that doesn’t mean he’s leaving.
 
We all agree that Capel had an extremely difficult job cleaning up Stallings's mess. He was left with only a few ACC-level players. But since this was the case, it puts an emphasis on recruiting and player evaluation because you really cant afford any "misses." You're starting at 0. You dont have anyone else in the system you can rely on in Years 3 and 4 so you have to be right on the guys you sign, otherwise the rebuild will take longer than anyone hopes. Lets review:

Marcus Carr - miss - You cant really blame incoming coaches for player transfers but Carr has clearly become a high level D1 PG.

Parker Stewart - miss - good shooter with great height who can get his shot off. Cant blame Capel as Stewart seems to be a different kind of kid. But he would have greatly helped. That said, if Carr and Stewart stayed, we may not have gotten Johnson and McGowens

Trey McGowens - miss - This is assuming he transfers. If he does, this is a miss, no question about it. The 2 years he contributed wouldn't have been good enough

Ryan Murphy - miss

Gerald Drumgoole - miss - looks to be an A10 level player. Maybe by Year 3 or 4, he can contribute

AKC - developmental big. Wont be a plus player until at least Year 3, maybe Year 4, if ever. May end up as a miss.

So this means out of 2 classes, Capel has only brought in 3 players (Johnson, Toney, Champagnie) that are currently ACC-level and I still feel like Johnson is going to transfer as well leaving us with only 2 next season if McGowens goes as well.

I know some people are excited about next year's class but Hugley is the only one that is expected to step in and contribute. Amadasun is a lottery ticket. There's probably a 90% chance he wont amount to much. That's just reality with bigs ranked that low. Collier seems like he could be a good player in his junior or senior season but he isnt going to do anything more than eat some minutes next season.

Capel hasn't proved that he can outcoach or outscheme his opponents. He needs talent and going into Year 3, he isn't going to have enough of it and that's on him.
C'mon AKC is hardly a miss at this point. I think he is gonna have a nice career at Pitt when it's all said and done
 
C'mon AKC is hardly a miss at this point. I think he is gonna have a nice career at Pitt when it's all said and done

And it’s way too early on Drumgoole. Someone said yesterday what I was thinking the other night - he needs to get in shape. He’s not fat - but you can see he needs to do some work. And I said the same about AKC. Change his body a bit and work on his footwork. He looks labored at times moving. I’d drill him half to death on agility stuff.
 
Drumgoole has shown some signs lately of beginning to come along. He may very well contribute decently and productively next season.

The real problems with this team are structural. First, and most importantly, there is a lack of a quality 3-point shooter or two. Seccond, there is a lack of quality big men. This team, especially vs zone defenses, has no players with the ability to attack a zone from long range and is too small to effectively attack a zone from the inside. I am hoping next season will show a decent turn around in those two areas based on the big "IF"

That is--If Horton is as advertised as a shooter and Hugley performs decently in the low blocks. Less likely, but "if' Drumgoole and Champagnie shoot the 3-ball better and Collier turns out to be a taller version of Champagnie on top of the Horton and Hugley contributions; then, things can be even better.

Even if only Horton and Hugley show up as hoped, that combo could end our streak of seeing almost nothing but zone defenses. As is obvious, we are seeing them constantly because we don't currently have players with the physical and skill attributes needed to successfully attack zones (i.e., good outside shooting and requisite inside size vs long/tall zones like Cuse has).

Johnson and McGowens will be more productive players when they don't need to dribble drive attack against zone defenses. They will look so much better, IMHO, when they are complementing outside shooters and offensively talented bigs. In fact, should that be the case next season, the naysayers on this board will be astounded by how much those two will have improved their personal games in one year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeffburgh
Drumgoole has shown some signs lately of beginning to come along. He may very well contribute decently and productively next season.

The real problems with this team are structural. First, and most importantly, there is a lack of a quality 3-point shooter or two. Seccond, there is a lack of quality big men. This team, especially vs zone defenses, has no players with the ability to attack a zone from long range and is too small to effectively attack a zone from the inside. I am hoping next season will show a decent turn around in those two areas based on the big "IF"

That is--If Horton is as advertised as a shooter and Hugley performs decently in the low blocks. Less likely, but "if' Drumgoole and Champagnie shoot the 3-ball better and Collier turns out to be a taller version of Champagnie on top of the Horton and Hugley contributions; then, things can be even better.

Even if only Horton and Hugley show up as hoped, that combo could end our streak of seeing almost nothing but zone defenses. As is obvious, we are seeing them constantly because we don't currently have players with the physical and skill attributes needed to successfully attack zones (i.e., good outside shooting and requisite inside size vs long/tall zones like Cuse has).


Johnson and McGowens will be more productive players when they don't need to dribble drive attack against zone defenses. They will look so much better, IMHO, when they are complementing outside shooters and offensively talented bigs. In fact, should that be the case next season, the naysayers on this board will be astounded by how much those two will have improved their personal games in one year.

I agree with you on the If's and I really hope this happens. X and Trey if they really want to improve they can do a couple of things and that's recognize that everything doesn't have to be on them and really put in the work on shooting on their own when they're not allowed to be coached. If I was them there wouldn't be a day that goes past where I wouldn't put up a thousand shots a day that creates muscle memory and also improves your eye level for shooting. I can almost guarantee they will be better shooters and I say that because I didn't even do that much when I played and my shot got better and they are a more Superior athletes than I was so if can do it they surely can.
 
And it’s way too early on Drumgoole. Someone said yesterday what I was thinking the other night - he needs to get in shape. He’s not fat - but you can see he needs to do some work. And I said the same about AKC. Change his body a bit and work on his footwork. He looks labored at times moving. I’d drill him half to death on agility stuff.
I'm higher right now on AKC than Drumgoole but I have been slightly encouraged with his play recently. Better than it has been all year which isn't saying much.
 
I like how the "misses" get 5, several line bullets, and the "hits" are all lumped together in a single line. Very fair and balanced.

Also, dude, Parker Stewart? He's the same guy he was at Pitt. His fg% is up slightly and his 3p% and ft% are both down. Rebounds, steals, and blocks are all flat, despite a massive drop in competition. Stewart also averages more turnovers than Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens. Two years later, he's literally the same guy he was at Pitt, he just shoots it 20% more. He would not help us. It's laughable to categorize him as a miss.

It's also pretty disingenuous to categorize players who willingly left as a "miss." Is Capel supposed to force them to stay against their will?

Then you have a true freshman who missed half the season as a miss.

I know you're a real flavor of the week type guy, but you need to stop changing course with every change of the wind. It's really out of hand.
 
I'm higher right now on AKC than Drumgoole but I have been slightly encouraged with his play recently. Better than it has been all year which isn't saying much.

Well the bottom line is it’s too early to give up on anyone that’s a soph or frosh. Too many guys have been written off for dead in the past who have become really good players. You’d think people would have learned that lesson but then again...

For those who wanted the insta turnaround - it seems that’s not happening. Hopefully the guys coming in next year will help.

Maybe the success - if it comes - will be because of seasoned and older teams like it did with Dixon. With a Blair sprinkled in here and there. Which obviously will take a little longer.

We shall see.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lilspainishflea
Well the bottom line is it’s too early to give up on anyone that’s a soph or frosh. Too many guys have been written off for dead in the past who have become really good players. You’d think people would have learned that lesson but then again...

For those who wanted the insta turnaround - it seems that’s not happening. Hopefully the guys coming in next year will help.

Maybe the success - if it comes - will be because of seasoned and older teams like it did with Dixon. With a Blair sprinkled in here and there. Which obviously will take a little longer.

We shall see.
This "turnaround" seems like it's gonna be a lot longer than most of us thought. I think a lot of fans would feel better if there was any signs of tangible progress made in season 2 of the Capel era. Unfortunately there really isn't any and that's a concern to me. I don't know what you think about it but I definitely didn't expect another epic collapse like last year with our 2 fab sophomores looking worse rather than improving.
 
I like how the "misses" get 5, several line bullets, and the "hits" are all lumped together in a single line. Very fair and balanced.

Also, dude, Parker Stewart? He's the same guy he was at Pitt. His fg% is up slightly and his 3p% and ft% are both down. Rebounds, steals, and blocks are all flat, despite a massive drop in competition. Stewart also averages more turnovers than Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens. Two years later, he's literally the same guy he was at Pitt, he just shoots it 20% more. He would not help us. It's laughable to categorize him as a miss.

It's also pretty disingenuous to categorize players who willingly left as a "miss." Is Capel supposed to force them to stay against their will?

Then you have a true freshman who missed half the season as a miss.

I know you're a real flavor of the week type guy, but you need to stop changing course with every change of the wind. It's really out of hand.
Parker Stewart is actually a less efficient player both offensively and defensively than he was as a freshman at Pitt, which is pretty wild considering the massive drop in competition and the year off he had to work on his game. If you want to say that we'd be better off with Parker Stewart this year versus Ryan Murphy, though? I think you'd have a pretty good argument there.
 
This "turnaround" seems like it's gonna be a lot longer than most of us thought. I think a lot of fans would feel better if there was any signs of tangible progress made in season 2 of the Capel era. Unfortunately there really isn't any and that's a concern to me. I don't know what you think about it but I definitely didn't expect another epic collapse like last year with our 2 fab sophomores looking worse rather than improving.

I expected a bit more this year. No question. And I’m certainly not saying there aren’t reasons for concern. But I thought this was going to be a longer process. Earlier this year when there was tourney talk I posted that I didn’t think we needed to worry about it because we still weren’t good enough. But I didn’t expect it to be quite this bad.

And specifically I did expect more out of X and Trey. But I also think that’s a function of not having not enough help around them and teams figuring out quickly to just play zone. And it is troubling that they couldn’t play better against it as the season went on. They had to know it was coming. Hell even Fl St went to zone. Which they almost never do from what I read. That they couldn’t improve against it isn’t good. Didn’t expect miracles but their O was absolutely inept/incompetent frequently and for long stretches.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PittMan2003
I expected a bit more this year. No question. And I’m certainly not saying there aren’t reasons for concern. But I thought this was going to be a longer process. Earlier this year when there was tourney talk I posted that I didn’t think we needed to worry about it because we still weren’t good enough. But I didn’t expect it to be quite this bad.

And specifically I did expect more out of X and Trey. But I also think that’s a function of not having not enough help around them and teams figuring out quickly to just play zone. And it is troubling that they couldn’t play better against it as the season went on. They had to know it was coming. Hell even Fl St went to zone. Which they almost never do from what I read. That they couldn’t improve against it isn’t good. Didn’t expect miracles but their O was absolutely inept/incompetent frequently and for long stretches.
Yeah pretty much agree.
 
Bottom line you don’t “build” anything in two years. It’s going to take longer - more like 3-5 years. Capel is “building” a program. It began with making Pitt respectable again, which they are. The fans may not like or respect it but every coach they go up against does. He’s done it with a roster of players that couldn’t make the starting line-up of most every other ACC program minus Boston College. That’s nothing short of a miracle. He’s got 4 and 5 star recruits now looking at and considering Pitt and some committing like Hood-Schifino. If things play out like it looks they will, Pitt is going to be a big winner again - perhaps even as early as 2020. The only thing that isn’t on the right trajectory here is this boards expectations.
 
Bottom line you don’t “build” anything in two years. It’s going to take longer - more like 3-5 years. Capel is “building” a program. It began with making Pitt respectable again, which they are. The fans may not like or respect it but every coach they go up against does. He’s done it with a roster of players that couldn’t make the starting line-up of most every other ACC program minus Boston College. That’s nothing short of a miracle. He’s got 4 and 5 star recruits now looking at and considering Pitt and some committing like Hood-Schifino. If things play out like it looks they will, Pitt is going to be a big winner again - perhaps even as early as 2020. The only thing that isn’t on the right trajectory here is this boards expectations.
They’re not gonna be a big winner next year unless some miracle drops in their lap in April. Hugley may be a great player at Pitt, would be irresponsible to think he’s gonna change the team as a freshmen.

Im still extremely high on Drumgoole and think he just had a bunch of tough breaks this year. Could be the shooting Pitt is missing to move the needle.
 
I agree on Drumgoole. He obviously showed well early - enough to earn a starting role. Collectively, next year’s roster is going to be bigger, stronger, deeper, more athletic, more experienced, more talented and more hungry. That will create the context for the kind of practices that Capel was used to conducting at Duke where they go after each other daily and leads to the player and team development you see from them. That wasn’t possible at Pitt this year because of depth, scheduling and injuries. It’s part of the reason Pitt wasn’t able to prepare like he would have liked and why they
fell off toward the end of the year. That context should create the individual growth we need to see from Drumgoole, X, Trey, Penny, Toney, Horton and the incoming freshmen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lilspainishflea
A Johnson transfer would make no sense, if he leaves it’s to go pro. McGowens on the other hand.... but I wouldn’t go as far as expecting it. His demeanor on the court has always bugged me, but that doesn’t mean he’s leaving.
PRO?
 
Way too premature to call a guy like Drumgoole a miss. Haven’t we learned anything from Wanamaker?

This post is a miss.
And Drumgoole has a discernible skill that will get him PT next year if he can stay healthy. At this point in Brad’s career, he was a disaster.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ski11585
Way too premature to call a guy like Drumgoole a miss. Haven’t we learned anything from Wanamaker?

This post is a miss.

Wanamaker was a rotation player on elite Final Four-caliber teams. Drumgoole can barely get off the bench for one of the worst P6 teams in the nation. Massive massive difference. Heck, Freshman Wanamaker is probably the best player on this team.
 
Isn’t it funny that we were so warped by stallings that XJ and Trey leading us to 3 wins accelerated our expectations for a rebuild and we feared they wouldn’t stay 4 years? Seems insane looking back to preseason.
I think things just got so bad there that it's a natural tendency to look at every guy on the roster as being a potential savior. For example, maybe Trey's most natural fit is as a sixth man type of energy/defense-first guard? That's great - lots of good teams have a guy like that, but for the past two years we've needed Trey to score consistently at all three levels AND do the energy/defense stuff.

Maybe Drumgoole isn't destined to be an every-night starter in the ACC, and is better used as a 12-15 mpg type of shooting wing off the bench? Again, that's great, and lots of good teams have guys like that! But this year, we thought Drumgoole was going to come in and play as a freshman like a top 100 player.

The same could be said about guys like Terrell Brown, or Ryan Murphy, or John Hugley (although I think he has a better chance of being a bona fide starter-caliber player as an underclassman), or Noah Collier, or Ithiel Horton, etc. We're all HOPING that some of those guys end up as legitimate ACC-caliber starters - and I think it's fairer to expect that from some guys more than others, especially early.

But if we get enough of these cards, the better chance we have that more of them will be winners. It's just that we went from having, what, one or two cards two years ago, to two or three cards last year, to three to five cards this year. We need to get to the point where we have ten or more cards.
 
Wanamaker was a rotation player on elite Final Four-caliber teams. Drumgoole can barely get off the bench for one of the worst P6 teams in the nation. Massive massive difference. Heck, Freshman Wanamaker is probably the best player on this team.

Okay. Then pick a freshman of your choice. We've had plenty wear the blue and gold who made significant improvements by the time they were upperclassmen. Calling Drumgoole a miss based on a season that got thrown askew by an injury is absolutely premature.
 
Okay. Then pick a freshman of your choice. We've had plenty wear the blue and gold who made significant improvements by the time they were upperclassmen. Calling Drumgoole a miss based on a season that got thrown askew by an injury is absolutely premature.

JJ Moore? Moore was head and shoulders better as a FR.
 
Wanamaker was a rotation player on elite Final Four-caliber teams. Drumgoole can barely get off the bench for one of the worst P6 teams in the nation. Massive massive difference. Heck, Freshman Wanamaker is probably the best player on this team.
Your fantasies and lies, don't become facts because you screech them out endlessly. Grow up. You know nothing about anything, and the love of your fantasy hoops life isn't coming here no matter how many times you scream your nonsense. Heather doesn't care what you say. She doesn't even know you exist.
 
Drumgoole has shown some signs lately of beginning to come along. He may very well contribute decently and productively next season.

The real problems with this team are structural. First, and most importantly, there is a lack of a quality 3-point shooter or two. Seccond, there is a lack of quality big men. This team, especially vs zone defenses, has no players with the ability to attack a zone from long range and is too small to effectively attack a zone from the inside. I am hoping next season will show a decent turn around in those two areas based on the big "IF"

That is--If Horton is as advertised as a shooter and Hugley performs decently in the low blocks. Less likely, but "if' Drumgoole and Champagnie shoot the 3-ball better and Collier turns out to be a taller version of Champagnie on top of the Horton and Hugley contributions; then, things can be even better.

Even if only Horton and Hugley show up as hoped, that combo could end our streak of seeing almost nothing but zone defenses. As is obvious, we are seeing them constantly because we don't currently have players with the physical and skill attributes needed to successfully attack zones (i.e., good outside shooting and requisite inside size vs long/tall zones like Cuse has).


Johnson and McGowens will be more productive players when they don't need to dribble drive attack against zone defenses. They will look so much better, IMHO, when they are complementing outside shooters and offensively talented bigs. In fact, should that be the case next season, the naysayers on this board will be astounded by how much those two will have improved their personal games in one year.

Yeah, the basic issues people have identified are the core problem - losing exasperates whatever tensions may exist, winning recedes them. End of the day the biggest problem BY FAR for this team is the inability to put the ball in the basket.

Not having even a JWF type three point shooter and having a functional void in the post were just too much for a team shy on depth over the course of the season.

Side note - parker stewart absolutely would have helped this team, he would have been able to do what JWF did last year. This team would be easily over .500 and a couple more ACC wins.
 
Bottom line you don’t “build” anything in two years. It’s going to take longer - more like 3-5 years. Capel is “building” a program. It began with making Pitt respectable again, which they are. The fans may not like or respect it but every coach they go up against does. He’s done it with a roster of players that couldn’t make the starting line-up of most every other ACC program minus Boston College. That’s nothing short of a miracle. He’s got 4 and 5 star recruits now looking at and considering Pitt and some committing like Hood-Schifino. If things play out like it looks they will, Pitt is going to be a big winner again - perhaps even as early as 2020. The only thing that isn’t on the right trajectory here is this boards expectations.
Not in college basketball! College football I agree.
 
First off both Carr and Stewart we’re gone the day KS was fired and let’s not forget Ryan Luther who’d have helped tremendously last year had he stayed . All three would’ve helped in the transition.

I don’t have insight into the relationships of X and Trey with JC as to speculate that one or both of them may
leave . No doubt this yr was disappointing for both of them . My question is where do they go ? Going pro is laughable , transferring and sitting out after starting for 2 yrs doesn’t seem like a great option to me . If major programs would be interested in them they would need to Improve their weaknesses or they’re not starters . So why leave , stay and work on your games and get better .

The issue with both of them is that too much was expected of these guys after their freshman yr . Neither came in as 5* ready to dominate, but their freshman yrs gave hope that they were really good players to build the program around . The problem is that both are one dimensional players on offense and opponents have gotten hip to this . They need to improve their shooting and their reliance on their teammates . The problem is that as of now they don’t have the players around them to take the pressure off them .

The real problem was last yrs recruiting class , for the program to take the next step towards respectability they needed to land a couple of impact players . One big and a scorer . Justin C was a nice surprise , but DG looks overmatched and while AKC looks promising he’s not ready . Murphy and Hamilton were desperation stop gap measures . Had Horton been eligible things might have been different so next yr some of these needs will be filled . If Hugley and co come in and surpass expectations next yr will be much better .

The only solution is for JC to continue to work the recruiting trail and convince better players to give Pitt
a try . No coach wins in the ACC without top talent . Pitts record is a reflection of their talent level neither are good enough right now .
 
McGowens is having a poor year and didn’t take a big jump this year, but he clearly is the kind of player that NCAA caliber teams always have as a junior or senior. He’s a good player and shouldn’t be written off. How many players in Pitt history can boast more than one 30-point game as a freshman? Average players don’t do that. He just needs to get right between the ears. I really hope to see him stay and grow.
 
McGowens is having a poor year and didn’t take a big jump this year, but he clearly is the kind of player that NCAA caliber teams always have as a junior or senior. He’s a good player and shouldn’t be written off. How many players in Pitt history can boast more than one 30-point game as a freshman? Average players don’t do that. He just needs to get right between the ears. I really hope to see him stay and grow.
Correct
He’s the most talented guard we have -
Inconsistency is to be expected - and considering the minutes he logs -it’s clear the staff recognize his value

Our fans are so ridiculously reactionary
 
  • Like
Reactions: JD1976
McGowens is having a poor year and didn’t take a big jump this year, but he clearly is the kind of player that NCAA caliber teams always have as a junior or senior. He’s a good player and shouldn’t be written off. How many players in Pitt history can boast more than one 30-point game as a freshman? Average players don’t do that. He just needs to get right between the ears. I really hope to see him stay and grow.
Totally agree , forget the perimeter jumper get a Cam Wright mid range jumper would take his game to the next level .
 
Pitt was mediocre before Stallings and they imploded with Stallings. It's going to take time for Capel to build a team. Not easy to recovery from how Stallings destroyed this program.
 
Totally agree , forget the perimeter jumper get a Cam Wright mid range jumper would take his game to the next level .
I wonder what people would have thought about Lamar Patterson, Brad Wannamaker, Tyrell Biggs, Aaron Gray, Gary McGhee, etc if they would have be thrown into the fire and played 30+ mpg as freshmen with zero upperclass leadership or talent?
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT