Some thoughts about the Pens goaltending .......
- No doubt the Pens need to upgrade their goaltending, it has been one of several significant problems with the team for awhile now ....
- Reports are that FSG likes to use advanced analytics heavily in their evaluations, so the new GM may be looking at advanced stats as part of the evaluations of our goalies ......
- Let's see what some advanced stats are for TJ and CDS over their careers, over the last 3 years (when they have been our two main goalies), and what the two did over this last season all compared to other goalies in the NHL.....
- I'm going to use delta save% (dSV%), Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), and High Danger Save % (HDSV%) to see where TJ and CDS stand compared with the other goalies in the NHL .....
dSV% = how the goalies SV% compares to what an average NHL goalies SV% would be if they faced the exact same shots ( a positive dSV% means the goalies SV% is better than an average NHL goalie would do on the same shots).
GSAx = how many goals the goalie gave up compared to how many goals an average NHL goalie would be expected to give up if they faced the exact same shots ( a positive GSAx number means the goalie is giving up fewer goals than an average NHL goalie would give up facing the some shots).
HDSV% = the goalies SV% against high danger shots (the shots that have the highest chance of scoring a goal).
- Over their careers, CDS average rank among other NHL goalies for dSV% = 16th in the league, for GSAx = 20th, and his HDSV% = 0.829 ...... TJ average rank for dSV% = 27th in the league, for GSAx = 27th and his HDSV% = 0.804.
- Over the last 3 years, CDS dSV% = 17th in the league, GSAx = 19th and HDSV% = 0.830 ..... TJ dSV% = 25th in the league, GSAx =25th and HDSV% = 0.809.
- This past regular season, CDS dSV% = 17th in the league, GSAx = 18th and HDSV% = 0.835 ..... TJ dSV% = 25th in the league, GSAx = 25th, and HDSV% = 0.802.
- In the above advanced stats, CDS has outperformed TJ over their careers, over the last 3 years, and this past season ...... In 3 of the 4 years they played together on the Pens, CDS's advanced numbers above are better than TJ ..... I'm NOT saying that CDS should be our #1 goalie, he is a backup (#2) goalie but the advanced stats show he does pretty well in that role ..... the main problem, IMO, is that we need to upgrade our #1 goalie if possible, the problem being that the list of free agent upgrades is limited, we have salary cap constraints, and we have a lack of assets to trade for a top goalie and have so many other needs ...... there are a lot of other advanced goalie stats, but if the new GM indeed uses advanced stats heavily, there should be a significant effort to upgrade their #1 goalie and if they do, then decide if they can also upgrade from CDS as backup goalie which at that point may be somewhat difficult/limited ...... if they can't get an upgrade on their #1 goalie and have to resign TJ, they should do so for a very short "prove it" contract, at a minimal increase in salary and would probably have to replace CDS with a 1B type goalie which may not upgrade the goaltending as much as we would want ...... a big question/variable with TJ is his injury history and whether he can get to 100% health for a long period or whether these injuries are going to be chronic and affect his play ..... obviously input from the medical staff will be needed.
- One thing that the advanced stats imply about TJ is that he is not that good at stopping High Danger shots, the ones that produce the highest chance of a goal ..... you would have to study video to see why he seems to have problems there ..... is it poor angles/positioning, poor goalie movement, problems with certain type of saves, problems with rebound control, etc. ..... again advanced stats might indicate a problem and you would need to look at video to see what is causing the problem and what can be done about it.
- What is in the pipeline goalie wise for the Pens ? .......
Filip Lindberg (24y/o) after a great college career with UMass, has had 2 injury filled seasons with WBS and hasn't played that much to tell what kind of a prospect he really is.
Taylor Gauthier (22y/o) an undrafted free agent in his first year between Wheeling and WBS is a prospect but not clear how good of a prospect or if he will ever make it to the NHL at this point.
Dustin Tokarsky .... AHL player at this point.
Joel Bloomqvist (21y/o, 2nd round draft pick 2020) ...... played in highest pro league in Finland and recently signed to entry level contract by Pens (played one game with WBS at end of current season) ...... he is the Pens top goalie prospect and is very well thought of but not ready for NHL yet ..... we'll see how he now develops in North America but he could be Pens goalie of future .... too early to tell ...... one problem, Blomqvist had two concussions this past season in Finland, one in October and another in December that kept him out until mid-March ...... just our luck ...... should know over the next couple years if he is high level prospect or not.
Sergei Murashov (just turned 19, 4th round draft pick 2022) from Russia, played in what sounds like Russian minor league but played one game in KHL and may well play in KHL next season .... listed at 6'1", 170 pounds last year ...... said to be technically sound, athletic, moves well, good puck handling, right hand catcher ...... I think the Pens previous regime felt he was a pretty decent prospect but way to early to tell how he will develop and whether he will make it to North America, etc.