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Recruiting Rankings and Offers

I have been following recruiting back when you had to call a number and pay $1.99 a minute just to find out what high school players Pitt was recruiting. And there was nothing outside of regular high school basketball.

So it got me thinking just now what is easier and more reliable to evaluate. In high school football highly ranked players may never play against another college bound player at their position for an entire season or maybe a few times at most. That’s different for skilled positions but even then how accurate is it to compare Two skill position players who don’t face the same competition. You can watch a ton of film and sometimes it’s obvious. But how do you accurately evaluate a 5.5 from a 5.6 up to a 5.8? To my knowledge it’s largely based on summer camps which to me largely means measurable a and football in shorts because they aren’t playing real games against each other.

Now in basketball you have twice as many high school games, and AAU and Summer Circuit. There is a ton of chances to evaluate these kids. And the 3 star types and above show out as early as 6th grade against each other so you can actually compare.

My point is I really wonder about football recruiting and how good a coaching staff can really be at identifying potential good contributors.
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Recruiting Update Thursday rundown: Priority positions, new targets, official visits and more

We’ve spent a lot of time this week - all of the time this week, really - talking about quarterbacks; from where I sit, nothing has really changed in the last 24 hours on that front, so let’s talk about some other positions.

Where else does Pitt need to add in the portal this offseason?

One area that has gotten a fair amount of attention is receiver, and I don’t think that’s too surprising. Pitt really had three receivers contribute last season: Jared Wayne, Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means.

(Jaden Bradley was second among the receivers in touchdowns after he caught two - both in the same game - but he left the team at midseason.)

Three is not very many, and the coaches believe they need to upgrade the room. The fact that two of those three contributors came as transfers is even more concerning, but we can talk more about that at a later date.

The pressing matter right now is how the staff will build out the receivers for 2023, and it’s becoming more and more apparent that Kent State transfer Dante Cephas is at the top of the board. The former Penn Hills standout has obviously been a target - Pitt was one of the first schools to offer him - but I think the staff is really prioritizing him as a key potential addition to the 2023 roster.

It’s not hard to see why. In 23 games over the last two seasons - Cephas caught 130 passes for 1,984 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has been among the top three receivers in the MAC the last two seasons, and he’s got an impressive list of suitors. West Virginia, Penn State, Notre Dame, Kansas, Oklahoma, Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Georgia have all offered since officially entered the portal on Monday, but Pitt was the first school to jump in.

Cephas has already been in the South Side once since getting that offer, and I’ve been told he’ll back again at least one more time this week, so he’s definitely spending time around the staff.

What I’ve mentioned before with Cephas is still worth considering, though: his recruitment out of high school was held back by academics, so he didn’t really have the “full” recruiting process experience. Now he’s got a chance to really experience it, and there’s a feeling among people I’ve talked to that he is going to experience it to the fullest.

Obviously, Pitt would prefer to have him focus on how he can play in his hometown for his final season, how he can potentially be the No. 1 receiver on an ACC team and how he can improve his draft stock catching passes from Phil Jurkovec in a pro-style offense.

That’s the selling point. We’ll see if Cephas is buying. Visiting twice in a week is a good sign, but we’ll see where else the transfer process takes him.

We’ve seen some other offers go out to transfer receivers, like Florida’s Daejon Reynolds and Nebraska’s Decoldest Crawford. One other name to keep in mind is LSU’s Jack Bech.

Bech was a four-star tight end prospect in the class of 2021, but after splitting time between tight end and receiver as a freshman, Bech moved full-time to receiver after Brian Kelly arrived in Baton Rouge.

LSU’s official website describes Bech as a “precise route runner with tremendous hands,” and I would add that he’s exceptionally quick.

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Bech looks pretty explosive and would be an interesting piece to add to Pitt’s receivers room. From what I’ve heard, there’s a good amount of interest on the Panthers’ part, and Bech seems to be interested in taking a look at Pitt. I don’t know if they’ll get him, but keep his name in mind going forward.

Tight end is also an interesting position for Pitt to look at in the transfer portal. More and more, it sounds like Gavin Bartholomew will be staying put (after some persistent rumors about him considering a transfer), but I think the staff wants another veteran to add to the mix for this season.

CJ Dippre from Maryland was an early target, but Pitt’s contact with him started to fall off, and he’s now got official visits scheduled to Alabama (this weekend) and South Carolina (next weekend). So that one is off the table.

But yesterday I mentioned a tight end target who is very much on the table: Indiana’s AJ Barner. And the more I hear about Barner, the more I think he’s right at the top of the target list for the Pitt staff. That interest seems to be reciprocated, and we’re going to work to see what we can find out as far as visits, because I think there’s a good chance he ends up transferring to Pitt.

More options in the portal
Of course, it’s not just about filing needs. That’s one step, and Pitt certainly had a need at quarterback and has needs at receiver (and could have needs at other positions if other players leave). But it’s also about finding good players who could make the team better.

Enter Donovan McMillon.

The former four-star prospect from Peters Township went to Florida out of high school and played in all 25 games for the Gators over the last two seasons. He was mostly on special teams, but seeing that much playing time in the SEC as a freshman speaks to how much he impressed the coaches.

On Wednesday, he officially went into the transfer portal, and it didn’t take long for his new offer sheet to fill up. Minnesota, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Boston College, Kansas and Nebraska all jumped in the mix right off the bat, and so did Pitt.

This is one of the interesting angles of the transfer portal and a storyline that probably comes up quite often. You might recall some of the developments in McMillon’s recruitment; Pitt was the second school to offer him, giving him a scholarship when he attended the Panthers’ win over North Carolina in 2019. Pitt made McMillon’s top 15 the following March, but when he announced his top 10 a little more than a month later, the Panthers were nowhere to be seen.

That caused a bit of furor in western Pennsylvania - specifically in the South Side - and by the time he announced his top five a month after that, I think the relationship was pretty well shot.

But in recruiting these days, you never completely burn bridges, and there was enough still in place that when McMillon went into the portal, Pitt was able to pick things back up pretty quickly.

Now the second recruitment begins, and I’m hearing a lot of optimism about the Panthers’ chances. McMillon could do a lot in Pitt’s defense. He could step into the boundary safety position - that’s a natural fit for him - or he could add to his current 205 pounds (that’s where he’s listed on Florida’s site) and play outside linebacker. Either one would work, and I think Pitt would be thrilled to have him on the roster.

I think there’s a pretty good chance that happens. Whereas Cephas didn’t have a “real” recruiting process a few years ago, McMillon very much did. He enjoyed the recruiting process to its fullest, and while I don’t think he’s necessarily going to eschew it this time around, he is likely going to be among the players who enter the portal with a different perspective than he had during his high school recruitment.

I think a lot of players who go into the transfer portal at this point approach it as a business decision, and McMillon has to see the success Pitt’s defensive backs have had, both in college and in the NFL; that has to make the situation look appealing.

Like I said, there’s a lot of momentum in Pitt’s favor right now. There will be competition from the schools mentioned above and more will likely get involved, but I like the Panthers’ chances at this point.

Continued...

Where was the recruiting bump?

Everybody knows the recruiting bump from winning the ACC didn’t happen. But what this post presupposes is, what if it did?

This is going to be a tough sell with Pitt’s class currently ranked No. 50 in the nation, but bear with me as I give it a try.

I’ll say right off the bat that this class did not end up where I expected it to. There’s no need for receipts here - although there are plenty to be found - because I’ll plainly say that I thought Pitt would recruit a top-25 class featuring a few four-stars with a chance to sneak into the top 20 if one or two high-end guys chose the Panthers.

I said that a lot in the last year, and it didn’t happen. At least, the ranking prediction didn’t come to fruition.

What happened? Where did the expected momentum go?

I actually think we saw the momentum through the first eight months of the year.

Look back at June and consider what Pitt’s class looked like in the heat of the official visits. At one point, the Panthers had commitments from Jordan Bass, Isaiah Neal, Shadarian Harrison, Shelton Lewis and Brice Pollock. Set the stars aside - we’ll get to them in a second - and just look at the schools that Pitt beat for those commitments as well as the prospects themselves.

Those are legit big-time Power Five players. Guys with all-conference potential.

No, Pitt didn’t hold onto all of them; only three of those five signed with the Panthers. But getting the commitments initially reflected the recruiting momentum that existed for Pitt coming off the ACC championship.

I think the Hykeem Williams situation counts here, too. No, there are no consolation prizes or participation trophies; you either get a recruit or you don’t. But when was the last time Pitt had a five-star prospect visit three times like Williams did?

Yes, Tiquan Underwood’s connection to Williams and his family was the driving force there, but I think staying in the battle as long and as legitimately as Pitt did reflects some momentum.

The spring saw quite a few top recruits come to town for unofficial visits - again, that’s a reflection of recruiting momentum. It didn’t all sustain through the class, and decommitments definitely cost the Panthers with guys like Lewis, Pollock and Kenny Minchey.

But recruiting momentum isn’t only defined by what happens on Signing Day. That’s the ultimate verdict, of course, but if you look over the course of the full year and what Pitt was able to do in recruiting, from generating interest, securing visits and getting commitments, I think there was a bump.

The recruiting battles Pitt won to get Bass, Neal and Harrison, not to mention a few guys like Kenny Johnson or Lamar Seymore - those are battles the Panthers have not traditionally had a high rate of winning.

The stars and class rankings don’t necessarily reflect it. I can acknowledge that. But I can also say with a whole lot of certainty that Bass and Harrison are underrated. They really are. I don’t know what’s missing from bumping them to four-star status.

Now, I have a mixed track record of going to bat for three-stars-who-should-be-four-stars. Sometimes they hit (Jordan Addison, Israel Abanikanda) and sometimes they don’t (Khalil Anderson, Michael Smith). But I look at Bass and Harrison, I look at their film and their offer sheets and their potential, and they have every hallmark of four-star prospects.

If they had that ranking, if Pitt’s class had three four-star prospects instead of one, it would look a little different. It wouldn’t climb more than maybe one spot in the team rankings, but it would be much more palatable aesthetically.

For an interesting comparison, I happened to glance at Mississippi State’s class because I wanted to reconfirm that Brice Pollock did not get bumped to four-stars (he didn’t). The Bulldogs’ class is ranked No. 22 nationally, but they’re at that spot with just three four-star recruits - the same number Pitt would have if Bass and Harrison were rated appropriately.

One difference is that Mississippi State is being ranked on its top 20 commits (out of 25); Pitt only has 19 commitments total. So the Bulldogs aren’t suffering from their unranked Australian punter or two-star offensive lineman, whereas Pitt’s two-star quarterback and nine 5.5-rated three-stars are all counting (a few of those 5.5’s should be higher, which would help as well).

Ultimately, I can’t put it all on guys being underrated. That’s a bit of a cop-out, because every school in the country probably thinks it has some guys who are misevaluated by the rankings services. The Lewis and Pollock decommitments hurt, as did the loss of Kenny Minchey. Missing on the two local four-stars - Rodney Gallagher and Ta’Mere Robinson - also put a serious strain on the expectations that I had for the class.

So it’s a mixed bag. I think the defensive recruiting in this class was really good. I think the quarterback and offensive line recruiting is a bit of a question mark. The receivers look good, but someone will need to emerge from that group as a real playmaker. The running backs will be TBD until they get on the field and do something.

Is the class disappointing from a rankings perspective? Yes. I thought Pitt would get a top-25 class, and that didn’t happen, for a variety of reasons. Decommitments, missing on the top locals and guys being underrated - it all contributes. I have faith that the defensive recruits in this class will be really good; the staff just needs to be right about some of the offensive players. If they are, it should be a class that helps build another team that can contend in the ACC.

Zeise on bowl games

He is spot on here. It is bullshit that our guys are opting out and they aren't 1st or 2nd rounders.

Jurkovic May start in the SUN Bowl

Hearing a rumor he is in enrolled at Pitt. They have something called a mini semester that is 2 credits that you can take in between finals and the start of spring semester. 24 hours 6 hours per week. He is enrolled in that. The admin and coaches are looking into if he can play. Knows the playbook and apparently is healthy. Anyone else hearing this??

hey are keeping this very very quiet for obvious reasons..

Signing Day WPIAL Fun Fact

So when Polk signs Pitt will actually have as many kids from California signing as the WPIAL. Do I have that right? That‘s a killer. I mean if the WPIAL had half of the quality it had back in the day Pitt recruiting would never be out of the Top 25-30. This has really hurt Pitt. They generally could always count on 4-8 legit P5 recruits in most classes. Bummer!
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