I think 40 games is a wild stretch, but our roster situation certainly could deter certain types of coaches. If a coach is more of a traditional recruiter, as Stallings was (bring in freshmen, develop over four years), Pitt's going to be a difficult situation no matter how many of these guys return. Even if we hired a coach, a la Musselman, who tends to work the JUCO or grad-transfer circuit, it's going to be extremely difficult. There's just not much available to recruit at this point.
We have 11 returning players, as of now. So there already are four open scholarships. That's a fairly large group of schollys to fill in one year. Let's say just 3 of the 8 leave. That means there are seven scholarships available, an extraordinary number to fill (Stallings and Crean have both spoken about how difficult it is, as both have had to do it). Throw in the fact that a new coach would need to try to do this starting in April, and the likelihood of getting better players than the ones we already have are slim to none.
I looked at the national recruiting rankings yesterday, and there are only four uncommitted 5-star players in the coming year's class and seven uncommitted 4-stars. Pitt already has a 4-star commit in Bryce Golden, who just requested his release this AM. And Luther was considered a part of this recruiting class, as the staff planned to keep him on scholarship rather than bringing in a new player. Thus, Pitt's new coach will need to land at least one of the remaining eleven 4- or 5-star players just to replace Golden. And, if you assume Luther was the equivalent of a 4-star recruit and really leaves (to me, he's the equivalent of a 5-star, in that he's guaranteed to have immediate double-double impact), the new coach has to land 20% of the remaining 4- and 5-star recruits just to ensure that the new recruiting class is on par with the class Stallings had. Anyone really think that's happening? Anyone think a grad transfer, who has a one-year shot at playing at a P5 school is going to sign up to come here, where .500 is a pipe dream? So, for all the complaining about Stallings' recruiting class, the next class now promises to be worse, unless a Hurley comes in and brings his RI recruits with him.
On the JUCO front, there are about 15 uncommitted players in the top 30, one of which, Kingsby, was a part of our class. And for those complaining Stallings should have recruited a better PG from the JUCO ranks, there was exactly ONE point guard ranked in the top 25 among JUCOs for the coming class. There are two combo guards in the top 26, a kid ranked as the #15 overall JUCO and Kingsby. That's it.
So please, tell me where we're going to get recruits that will do better either than what we have or better than what we had coming in. How will that happen? If Lyke doesn't hit an absolute home run with this hire, those saying it couldn't get worse are in for a rude awakening.
P.S. For the 2018 HS recruiting class, there are zero 5-star uncommitted point guards and only three uncommitted 4-star point guards.