What are our chances of winning the ACC tournament? I assume the NCS will win it but I really don't know.
ACC Tournament
- Thread starter Dallas Burgher
- Start date
I think it hurts us not having pitzer at heavy weight because I really don’t see slinger beating anybody, except for the Virginia heavyweight. but other than our favorites( Nino and Cole), who are favorites to win I think it comes down to these four guys:
1.)Camacho(he can definitely win it if he finally puts it together at ACC’s)
2.)Phillipi (don’t let Orine loss get to him and beat both him and Latona)
3.) Heller(will be #1 seed at 165, win the weight, no let down)
4.) Luca(he needs to get to the final. He’s not gonna get past Mekhi Lewis but if he can get in the final that would be huge.)
That’s just my overall thoughts on having a chance to win ACC’s
1.)Camacho(he can definitely win it if he finally puts it together at ACC’s)
2.)Phillipi (don’t let Orine loss get to him and beat both him and Latona)
3.) Heller(will be #1 seed at 165, win the weight, no let down)
4.) Luca(he needs to get to the final. He’s not gonna get past Mekhi Lewis but if he can get in the final that would be huge.)
That’s just my overall thoughts on having a chance to win ACC’s
I was surprised by this:
According to this sim, Pitt wins 125, 133, 141 (by major?!?), and 197; 2nd at 165, 3rd at 174, 4th at 157 and 285 ... and finishes 13.5 behind Virginia Tech
According to this sim, Pitt wins 125, 133, 141 (by major?!?), and 197; 2nd at 165, 3rd at 174, 4th at 157 and 285 ... and finishes 13.5 behind Virginia Tech
When it comes to Tournament wrestling, its not always the best wrestler who wins but rather which wrestler wrestles best that day (or weekend)...so you never really know.
Our chances would be better if we'd could manage to get more extra-point wins.
I have begrudging admiration for that "certain other PA team" because they seem so adept at getting that extra point or two at the end of a bout that changes that "decision" to a "major decision", etc.
I'm being Mr. Obvious, but in a tournament (or even in a dual), that can make-up for having one fewer win in a close contest.
I have begrudging admiration for that "certain other PA team" because they seem so adept at getting that extra point or two at the end of a bout that changes that "decision" to a "major decision", etc.
I'm being Mr. Obvious, but in a tournament (or even in a dual), that can make-up for having one fewer win in a close contest.
The brackets are now out:
https://theacc.com/documents/2023/2/28/2023_ACC_Wrestling_Brackets_2_27.pdf
And here's the breakdown for Pitt:
Weight (NCAA Bids Allocated): ACC Seed/Pitt Wrestler
125 (2): No. 4 Colton Camacho
133 (3): No. 1 Micky Phillippi
141 (4): No. 1 Cole Matthews
149 (3): No. 4 Tyler Badgett
157 (3): No. 4 Dazjon Casto
165 (3): No. 1 Holden Heller
174 (3): No. 3 Luca Augustine
184 (5): No. 5 Reece Heller
197 (4): No. 1 Nino Bonaccorsi
285 (3): No. 4 Jake Slinger
So, if they all wrestled to seed, qualifiers would be Micky, Cole, Holden, Luca, Reece and Nino. I'd be disappointed with that but I'm not sure who else I'd pick to qualify.
Only getting two qualifiers at 125 is really tough for Camacho. It means he needs to beat Trombley to get to Tulsa. He lost 11-8 to Trombley in the dual when he was trying to get bonus points for the team, so it's not impossible, but still difficult.
Badgett might have to beat Verkleeren to advance. That doesn't seem too far-fetched. Verkleeren beat him 5-3 in the dual, scoring the only takedowns.
Cheez could qualify by beating two guys he owns wins over - Keating and O'Connor - but that seems really unlikely given what we've seen this season. He's 2-3 against Keating, including a win this year, but it's really hard to see him replicating last year's NCAA win over O'Connor, who clearly wants a rematch, as evidenced by his actions in the dual. A loss to O'Connor likely means he'll need to beat Scott or Andonian, which I don't see happening.
Slinger might have the best chance of a surprise appearance in Tulsa. He's 0-3 against UNC's Whitman, who he faces first, but all three were close matches. He's 1-2 against top-seeded Jonah Niesenbaum with three close matches. If Slinger scores a single takedown against each of those guys, he could be headed to the NCAA tournament.
https://theacc.com/documents/2023/2/28/2023_ACC_Wrestling_Brackets_2_27.pdf
And here's the breakdown for Pitt:
Weight (NCAA Bids Allocated): ACC Seed/Pitt Wrestler
125 (2): No. 4 Colton Camacho
133 (3): No. 1 Micky Phillippi
141 (4): No. 1 Cole Matthews
149 (3): No. 4 Tyler Badgett
157 (3): No. 4 Dazjon Casto
165 (3): No. 1 Holden Heller
174 (3): No. 3 Luca Augustine
184 (5): No. 5 Reece Heller
197 (4): No. 1 Nino Bonaccorsi
285 (3): No. 4 Jake Slinger
So, if they all wrestled to seed, qualifiers would be Micky, Cole, Holden, Luca, Reece and Nino. I'd be disappointed with that but I'm not sure who else I'd pick to qualify.
Only getting two qualifiers at 125 is really tough for Camacho. It means he needs to beat Trombley to get to Tulsa. He lost 11-8 to Trombley in the dual when he was trying to get bonus points for the team, so it's not impossible, but still difficult.
Badgett might have to beat Verkleeren to advance. That doesn't seem too far-fetched. Verkleeren beat him 5-3 in the dual, scoring the only takedowns.
Cheez could qualify by beating two guys he owns wins over - Keating and O'Connor - but that seems really unlikely given what we've seen this season. He's 2-3 against Keating, including a win this year, but it's really hard to see him replicating last year's NCAA win over O'Connor, who clearly wants a rematch, as evidenced by his actions in the dual. A loss to O'Connor likely means he'll need to beat Scott or Andonian, which I don't see happening.
Slinger might have the best chance of a surprise appearance in Tulsa. He's 0-3 against UNC's Whitman, who he faces first, but all three were close matches. He's 1-2 against top-seeded Jonah Niesenbaum with three close matches. If Slinger scores a single takedown against each of those guys, he could be headed to the NCAA tournament.
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Running the tournament sim through Wrestlestat.
125 (Top 2 Qualify):
Camacho over McCormick 9-3
Trombley over Camacho 7-4
Wagner over Grimminger 16-6 MD
Ventresca over Wagner 8-5
Camacho over Grimminger 17-2 TF
Wagner over McCormick 8-6
Wagner over Camacho 8-7
Trombley over Ventresca 5-4
1. JT 2.EV 3.JW 4.CC
133 (Top 3 Qualify):
Palmer over Yarborough 12-6
Phillipi over Palmer 6-3
Orine over Agin 13-4 MD
Latona over Orine 6-5
Phillipi over Latona 5-4
Orine over Yarbrough 12-4 MD
Palmer over Adin 12-3 MD
Orine over Palmer 8-3
1. MP 2.SL 3.KO 4.JP
141 (Top 4 Qualify);
Crook over Cedeno 6-5
McNeil over Papscy 17-4 MD
Matthews over Crook 7-3
Jack over Mcneil 5-4
Matthews over Jack 6-5
McNeil over Cedeno 12-4 MD
Crook over Papscy 15-3 MD
McNeil over Crook 9-5
1.CM 2.RJ 3.LM 4.TC
149 (Top 3 Qualify)
Sherman over Badgett 6-4
Verk over Rowland 13-2 MD
Henson over Sherman 8-3
Arrington over Verk 7-3
Verk over Badgett 6-5
Sherman over Rowland 12-2 MD
Henson over Arrington 7-3
Sherman over Verk 6-4
1. CH 2. JA 3. ZS 4. JV TB DNP
157 (Top 3 Qualify)
Keating over Castro 9-7
Scott over Ferrero 17-2 TF
O'Connor over Keating 14-3 MD
Andonian over Scott 9-8
Scott over Casto 12-3 MD
Keating over Ferrero 16-5 MD
AOC over Andonian 7-6
Scott over Keating 14-4 MD
1.AOC 2.BA 3.ES 4.JK DC DNP
165 (Top 3 Qualify):
Brady over Mazzara 7-3
Singleton over Dinette 10-3
Heller over Brady 6-5
McCoy over Singleton 7-5
McCoy over Heller 9-4
Singleton over Mazzara 8-4
Brady over Dinette 10-3
Brady over Singleton 5-4
1.JM 2.HH 3.Brady 4.Singleton
174 (Top 3 Qualify)
Faison over Augustine 6-5
Marcelli over Golderfer 7-5
Lewis over Marcelli 17-3 MD
Augustine over Golderfer 6-3
Augustine over Marcelli 8-2
Lewis over Faison 9-4
1.ML 2. AF 3.LA 4.VM
184 (Top 5 Qualify)
Heller over Antrassian 8-7
Hidlay over Heller 11-4
Kane over Chakonis 15-3 MD
Bolen over Kane 10-3
Heller over Chakonis 21-2 TF
Kane over Antrassian 8-5
Kane over Heller 8-6
Hidlay over Bolen 5-4
Antrassian over Chakonis 13-3 MD
1.TH 2.HB 3.GK 4.RH 5.NA 5.LC
197 (Top 4 Qualify)
Batista over Baker 10-5
Nino over Battista 9-4
Trumble over Shaw 9-4
Trumble over Smith 7-5
Trumble over Nino 6-4
Smith over Baker 12-3 MD
Shaw over Battista 7-4
Smith over Shaw 6-5
1. IT 2. NB 3. AS 4. MS
285 (Top 3 Qualify)
Whitman over Slinger 8-5
Niesenbaum over Whitman 7-4
Catka over Weatherspoon 11-2 MD
Trephan over Catka 7-3
Catka over Slinger 9-4
Whitman over Weatherspoon 7-3
Catka over Whitman 9-3
Trephan over Niesenbaum 9-3
1.OT 2.JN 3.HC 4.BW JS DNP
125 (Top 2 Qualify):
Camacho over McCormick 9-3
Trombley over Camacho 7-4
Wagner over Grimminger 16-6 MD
Ventresca over Wagner 8-5
Camacho over Grimminger 17-2 TF
Wagner over McCormick 8-6
Wagner over Camacho 8-7
Trombley over Ventresca 5-4
1. JT 2.EV 3.JW 4.CC
133 (Top 3 Qualify):
Palmer over Yarborough 12-6
Phillipi over Palmer 6-3
Orine over Agin 13-4 MD
Latona over Orine 6-5
Phillipi over Latona 5-4
Orine over Yarbrough 12-4 MD
Palmer over Adin 12-3 MD
Orine over Palmer 8-3
1. MP 2.SL 3.KO 4.JP
141 (Top 4 Qualify);
Crook over Cedeno 6-5
McNeil over Papscy 17-4 MD
Matthews over Crook 7-3
Jack over Mcneil 5-4
Matthews over Jack 6-5
McNeil over Cedeno 12-4 MD
Crook over Papscy 15-3 MD
McNeil over Crook 9-5
1.CM 2.RJ 3.LM 4.TC
149 (Top 3 Qualify)
Sherman over Badgett 6-4
Verk over Rowland 13-2 MD
Henson over Sherman 8-3
Arrington over Verk 7-3
Verk over Badgett 6-5
Sherman over Rowland 12-2 MD
Henson over Arrington 7-3
Sherman over Verk 6-4
1. CH 2. JA 3. ZS 4. JV TB DNP
157 (Top 3 Qualify)
Keating over Castro 9-7
Scott over Ferrero 17-2 TF
O'Connor over Keating 14-3 MD
Andonian over Scott 9-8
Scott over Casto 12-3 MD
Keating over Ferrero 16-5 MD
AOC over Andonian 7-6
Scott over Keating 14-4 MD
1.AOC 2.BA 3.ES 4.JK DC DNP
165 (Top 3 Qualify):
Brady over Mazzara 7-3
Singleton over Dinette 10-3
Heller over Brady 6-5
McCoy over Singleton 7-5
McCoy over Heller 9-4
Singleton over Mazzara 8-4
Brady over Dinette 10-3
Brady over Singleton 5-4
1.JM 2.HH 3.Brady 4.Singleton
174 (Top 3 Qualify)
Faison over Augustine 6-5
Marcelli over Golderfer 7-5
Lewis over Marcelli 17-3 MD
Augustine over Golderfer 6-3
Augustine over Marcelli 8-2
Lewis over Faison 9-4
1.ML 2. AF 3.LA 4.VM
184 (Top 5 Qualify)
Heller over Antrassian 8-7
Hidlay over Heller 11-4
Kane over Chakonis 15-3 MD
Bolen over Kane 10-3
Heller over Chakonis 21-2 TF
Kane over Antrassian 8-5
Kane over Heller 8-6
Hidlay over Bolen 5-4
Antrassian over Chakonis 13-3 MD
1.TH 2.HB 3.GK 4.RH 5.NA 5.LC
197 (Top 4 Qualify)
Batista over Baker 10-5
Nino over Battista 9-4
Trumble over Shaw 9-4
Trumble over Smith 7-5
Trumble over Nino 6-4
Smith over Baker 12-3 MD
Shaw over Battista 7-4
Smith over Shaw 6-5
1. IT 2. NB 3. AS 4. MS
285 (Top 3 Qualify)
Whitman over Slinger 8-5
Niesenbaum over Whitman 7-4
Catka over Weatherspoon 11-2 MD
Trephan over Catka 7-3
Catka over Slinger 9-4
Whitman over Weatherspoon 7-3
Catka over Whitman 9-3
Trephan over Niesenbaum 9-3
1.OT 2.JN 3.HC 4.BW JS DNP
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Can't wait for wrestling this weekend! I do a full breakdown in my latest video. Pitt has a chance to win the team title. 1 seeds have to come through and need some help from 125 and 174 and 285 to pull it out. Good luck! Let's watch some wrestling!!
Thanks for the content! I subscribed back in the beginning of the season
Thanks as always for the breakdown. I’m with you, I see 6 qualifiers, hoping we get at least 1 more to squeak through. I know with just six it does seem a little bit like a disappointment, I was hoping for potentially 8. I’m curious though, how many qualifiers have we had the last few year? Would 6 be slightly higher, about average, or even slightly lower than what we’ve recently been seeing?
Great question. Going back to 2012, Pitt has averaged six NCAA qualifiers per season with a high of eight in 2013 and 2014. The low points were 2017 and 2018, seasons when Pitt had just four qualifiers.
Here’s a look at those years with qualifiers, seeds/weights and the team finish
2022 (6) – Micky Phillippi (12/133), Cole Matthews (6/141), Elijah Cleary (20/157), Jake Wentzel (10/165), Gregg Harvey (28/184), Nino Bonaccorsi (5/197)
Finish: 24
2021 (5) – Micky Phillippi (5/133), Cole Matthews (16/141), Jake Wentzel (3/165), Gregg Harvey (30/184), Nino Bonaccorsi (6/197)
Finish: 11
2020 (7) – Micky Phillippi (4/133), Cole Matthews (27/141), Taleb Rahmani (23/157), Jake Wentzel (11/165), Gregg Harvey (28/174), Nino Bonaccorsi (10/184), Demetrius Thomas (7/285)
Finish: N/A (COVID)
2019 (5) – Micky Phillippi (4/133), Taleb Rahmani (12/157), Nino Bonaccorsi (13/184), Kellan Stout (23/197), Demetrius Thomas (8/285)
Finish: 34T
2018 (4) – Dom Forys (11/133), Nick Zanetta (141), Taleb Rahmani (157), Ryan Solomon (285)
Finish: 31T
2017 (4) – Dom Forys (6/133), Taleb Rahmani (157), TeShan Campbell (10/165), Ryan Solomon (15/285)
Finish: 32T
2016 (6) – L.J. Bentley (125), Dom Forys (11/133), Cody Wiercioch (165), TeShan Campbell (174), Nick Bonaccorsi (197), Ryan Solomon (285)
Finish: 39T
2015 (6) – Dom Forys (125), Mikey Racciato (16/149), Troy Reaghard (165),Tyler Wilps (8/174), Max Thomusseit (2/184), Ryan Solomon (285)
Finish: 21
2014 (8) – Anthony Zanetta (15/125), Shelton Mack (133), Edgar Bright (14/141), Mickey Racciato (149), Tyler Wilps (7/174), Max Thomusseit (4/189), Nick Bonaccorsi (197), P.J. Tasser (285)
Finish: 22
2013 (8) – Shelton Mack (133), Ronnie Garbinsky (149), Donnie Tasser (157), Tyler Wilps (165), Nick Bonaccorsi (174), Max Thomusseit (184), Matt Wilps (3/197), Zac Thomusseit (9/285)
Finish: 15T
2012 (6) – Anthony Zanetta (125), Shelton Mack (133), Tyler Nauman (6/149), Ethan Headlee (174), Matt Wilps (3/197), P.J. Tasser (285)
Finish: 15
Obviously, we can’t have our own upsets for our top rank guys, but I really think it comes down to Camacho and Badgett. if those two can find a way to qualify. I think we have a chance to win the ACC team as well as get us 8 qualifiers . I’m not counting on casto because that weight is incredibly hard.
I think there's a chance for Pitt to win it, but they'll have to wrestle really well. Can't have the hiccups that have plagued them at times this season.
I hope Pitt can win it, but they don't habitually score bonus points, so it will be a big challenge. And the wrestlers that lose can't give up bonus points in their losses. I'm excited to watch-wish it started today. H2P
