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Big 12 expansion predictions

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Sean Miller Fan

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Oct 30, 2001
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Looks like they are expanding. Not known whether it will be by 2 or 4.

My predictions:

4 teams:

1. Houston - new stadium, new market since they lost A&M (though UT and OU have large fanbases there). This is the only no-brainer

2. Memphis - FedEx money/backing, improving football, bball juggernaut, large city/market for not having many pro sports, great upside and close to Big 12 territory

3. Cincinnati - good market, stadium improvements show commitment

4. UCF - Orlando market

Missed out:

BYU - I wanted to put BYU in there but they just dont fit. Whether its right or not, I think their religious affiliation will scare enough people away

Colorado State - I could see it but I think the B12 goes to OH and FL first

UConn - just a little too far to go for bad football

Tulane - dont rule it out, NO is a great football market but I doubt it

Boise - too far, not big enough market

East
WVU
Cincy
UCF
Memphis
ISU
Kansas
KST

West
OU
OKST
TX
TT
TCU
Baylor
Houston

That East Division would blow.
 
Memphis brings so much to the table, as well as Houston. Those are easily the top two. Something to note; the conference will add at least two teams at a time. When at least two teams come into play, the current TV deal is ripped up and they can negotiate a new one.
 
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PittMan412 said:
Memphis brings so much to the table, as well as Houston. Those are easily the top two. Something to note; the conference will add at least two teams at a time. When at least two teams come into play, the current TV deal is ripped up and they can negotiate a new one.
Click to expand...

The current big xii TV deal has a clause that if they expand the payout increases pro rata for each new member so they do not have to renegotiate the contract. Other than the pro rata increase the contract stays the same.

This may be a ploy by the big xii to renegotiate the contract to say "if you pay our current members more and extend the contract we can remove the pro rata provision and not expand."

That way the TV partners don't have to pay 20 some million more for each Houston ucf or whoever they add a year.
 
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While the Big 12 looks to expand, it may be the perfect time for the Big Ten and SEC to do so instead ... by going after more Big 12 schools
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...or-the-big-ten-sec-to-poach-the-big-12-again/


The three best methods the Big 12 can use to decide on expansion teams
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...-big-12-can-use-to-decide-on-expansion-teams/

How low will some Group of Five schools go to win a Big 12 expansion invite?
http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...up-of-five-schools-go-to-win-a-big-12-invite/
 
ThePanthers said:
The current big xii TV deal has a clause that if they expand the payout increases pro rata for each new member so they do not have to renegotiate the contract. Other than the pro rata increase the contract stays the same.

This may be a ploy by the big xii to renegotiate the contract to say "if you pay our current members more and extend the contract we can remove the pro rata provision and not expand."

That way the TV partners don't have to pay 20 some million more for each Houston ucf or whoever they add a year.
Click to expand...

Or lets say the B12 contract currently pays $200 million per year using a round number (20/member). 2 new teams up it to $240 million. But maybe they only give the 2 new teams $5 million per year (is Houston really going to say no to that). That would mean the other 10 get upped to $23 million.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Looks like they are expanding. Not known whether it will be by 2 or 4.

My predictions:

4 teams:

1. Houston - new stadium, new market since they lost A&M (though UT and OU have large fanbases there). This is the only no-brainer

2. Memphis - FedEx money/backing, improving football, bball juggernaut, large city/market for not having many pro sports, great upside and close to Big 12 territory

3. Cincinnati - good market, stadium improvements show commitment

4. UCF - Orlando market

Missed out:

BYU - I wanted to put BYU in there but they just dont fit. Whether its right or not, I think their religious affiliation will scare enough people away

Colorado State - I could see it but I think the B12 goes to OH and FL first

UConn - just a little too far to go for bad football

Tulane - dont rule it out, NO is a great football market but I doubt it

Boise - too far, not big enough market

East
WVU
Cincy
UCF
Memphis
ISU
Kansas
KST

West
OU
OKST
TX
TT
TCU
Baylor
Houston

That East Division would blow.
Click to expand...

Lotsa talk that they could bring BYU in for football only.
 
Absolutely. That is the purpose of this if they expand. Very shortsighted, and I think it will lead to issues 7 years down the road. But it's the big xii.

Sean Miller Fan said:
Or lets say the B12 contract currently pays $200 million per year using a round number (20/member). 2 new teams up it to $240 million. But maybe they only give the 2 new teams $5 million per year (is Houston really going to say no to that). That would mean the other 10 get upped to $23 million.
Click to expand...
 
ThePanthers said:
Absolutely. That is the purpose of this if they expand. Very shortsighted, and I think it will lead to issues 7 years down the road. But it's the big xii.
Click to expand...

Yea and I think this expansion also has a lot to do with the minnows realizing the B12 is done after this contract and at that time, they will have to add American Athletic schools anyway so why not add them now, prop them up a bit so its not as bad of a shock when Texas and OU leave......plus you get a higher payday until then.

Also, since local Fox Sports RSNs own most of the individual schools' 3rd tier rights, I think they will probably do a B12 Network through FOX (separate from LHN). They'd have to buy back WVU's billion dollar Root Sports deal and a few others though. It wont be anywhere near as profitable as the other networks but with 5 TX teams plus UT road games, they may be able to get $1.50-$2 per subscriber in TX. The Dude will say the network will be much more lucrative than the ACC's and that ACC schools will eventually join.
 
Last edited:
Sean Miller Fan said:
Looks like they are expanding. Not known whether it will be by 2 or 4.

My predictions:

4 teams:

1. Houston - new stadium, new market since they lost A&M (though UT and OU have large fanbases there). This is the only no-brainer

2. Memphis - FedEx money/backing, improving football, bball juggernaut, large city/market for not having many pro sports, great upside and close to Big 12 territory

3. Cincinnati - good market, stadium improvements show commitment

4. UCF - Orlando market

Missed out:

BYU - I wanted to put BYU in there but they just dont fit. Whether its right or not, I think their religious affiliation will scare enough people away

Colorado State - I could see it but I think the B12 goes to OH and FL first

UConn - just a little too far to go for bad football

Tulane - dont rule it out, NO is a great football market but I doubt it

Boise - too far, not big enough market

East
WVU
Cincy
UCF
Memphis
ISU
Kansas
KST

West
OU
OKST
TX
TT
TCU
Baylor
Houston

That East Division would blow.
Click to expand...

Before The ACC Raid 2005, Nordy and Stevie had the option of joining this group or helping to swipe K, K St. Memphis and Iowa St for the Big East. Thoughts?
 
SMF,

The first three schools you mentioned have been talked about a lot on Austin sports radio this week. This morning there was talk of luring Arizona and Arizona State to go along with BYU and Houston. The reasons for the Arizona schools is to break away from the So Cal universities and expand its recruiting into Texas.
 
LeftCoastPanther said:
SMF,

The first three schools you mentioned have been talked about a lot on Austin sports radio this week. This morning there was talk of luring Arizona and Arizona State to go along with BYU and Houston. The reasons for the Arizona schools is to break away from the So Cal universities and expand its recruiting into Texas.
Click to expand...

No Pac 12 schools are going to the Big XII.
 
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Sean Miller Fan said:
Looks like they are expanding. Not known whether it will be by 2 or 4.

My predictions:

4 teams:

1. Houston - new stadium, new market since they lost A&M (though UT and OU have large fanbases there). This is the only no-brainer

2. Memphis - FedEx money/backing, improving football, bball juggernaut, large city/market for not having many pro sports, great upside and close to Big 12 territory

3. Cincinnati - good market, stadium improvements show commitment

4. UCF - Orlando market

Missed out:

BYU - I wanted to put BYU in there but they just dont fit. Whether its right or not, I think their religious affiliation will scare enough people away

Colorado State - I could see it but I think the B12 goes to OH and FL first

UConn - just a little too far to go for bad football

Tulane - dont rule it out, NO is a great football market but I doubt it

Boise - too far, not big enough market

East
WVU
Cincy
UCF
Memphis
ISU
Kansas
KST

West
OU
OKST
TX
TT
TCU
Baylor
Houston

That East Division would blow.
Click to expand...
That's a very unbalanced divisional setup.
 
They will set it up so Texas can play Oklahoma in the title game.

Some kind of amalgamation like

OK
OSU
WVU
Iowa State
Cincy
Memphis
UCF/BYU

Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
Houston
Kansas
Kansas State
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Or lets say the B12 contract currently pays $200 million per year using a round number (20/member). 2 new teams up it to $240 million. But maybe they only give the 2 new teams $5 million per year (is Houston really going to say no to that). That would mean the other 10 get upped to $23 million.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what they are going to do. Bowlsby said that they are going to be negotiating with the new members. That negotiation is to get the new schools to take less money so the other 10 can get bigger payments. It's a really jerry rigged solution.
 
ThePanthers said:
The current big xii TV deal has a clause that if they expand the payout increases pro rata for each new member so they do not have to renegotiate the contract. Other than the pro rata increase the contract stays the same.

This may be a ploy by the big xii to renegotiate the contract to say "if you pay our current members more and extend the contract we can remove the pro rata provision and not expand."

That way the TV partners don't have to pay 20 some million more for each Houston ucf or whoever they add a year.
Click to expand...
Its going to be interesting watching it unfold. If they add 4 teams they are pretty much dooming themselves to the bottom of the power 5, those schools other than BYU don't help the b12 with their biggest problems which are 1. they simply don't have enough teams that draw good tv numbers-this is going to hurt them when the tv contract expires their ratings have been pretty far behind the ACC which is almost as far behind the sec and b10. And 2. there base is simply to small geographically adding another TX team won't help. Memphis might help a little but these schools barely/if the even do control their own market, for instance Memphis might legitimately deliver the memphis market(I would guess TN has just as many fans in the city) but its not delivering much outside that city.
 
topdecktiger said:
That's exactly what they are going to do. Bowlsby said that they are going to be negotiating with the new members. That negotiation is to get the new schools to take less money so the other 10 can get bigger payments. It's a really jerry rigged solution.
Click to expand...

And it also creates more imbalance and competitive inequities. That kind of intentional double-standard often ultimately leads to dissatisfaction, problems and the conference version of civil war. They can have it.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Or lets say the B12 contract currently pays $200 million per year using a round number (20/member). 2 new teams up it to $240 million. But maybe they only give the 2 new teams $5 million per year (is Houston really going to say no to that). That would mean the other 10 get upped to $23 million.
Click to expand...
Its likely they will have a staggered payout, eventually they will almost have to bring the new members in fully they may be able to make more money for 5 or 6 years but eventually those schools are going to bring down the bottom line because bowl payouts will drop as well as playoff money.
I think it only makes sense for someone like OK or TX for them to expand here is why.
Ok doesn't have to care if those schools will eventually bring down the payments because they can push that out to near the grant of rights end and leave.
The other members are going to get less marque matchups against TX and OK.
If they desire to be one of the best conferences chances are adding teams hurts that and if they were to survive and look to expand they won't have the openings for better choices.
For the little 8 this could elevate a program ahead of them if the conference implodes. Think about it if WVU gets passed up for a SEC spot for Memphis because memphis is able to use these 8 years to drastically improve their product on and off the field.
 
topdecktiger said:
That's exactly what they are going to do. Bowlsby said that they are going to be negotiating with the new members. That negotiation is to get the new schools to take less money so the other 10 can get bigger payments. It's a really jerry rigged solution.
Click to expand...

And very short sighted. Eventually those schools will bring the current 10 teams numbers down. Its a great idea if you are going to leave in 7 years anyhow.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Looks like they are expanding. Not known whether it will be by 2 or 4.

My predictions:

4 teams:

1. Houston - new stadium, new market since they lost A&M (though UT and OU have large fanbases there). This is the only no-brainer

2. Memphis - FedEx money/backing, improving football, bball juggernaut, large city/market for not having many pro sports, great upside and close to Big 12 territory

3. Cincinnati - good market, stadium improvements show commitment

4. UCF - Orlando market

Missed out:

BYU - I wanted to put BYU in there but they just dont fit. Whether its right or not, I think their religious affiliation will scare enough people away

Colorado State - I could see it but I think the B12 goes to OH and FL first

UConn - just a little too far to go for bad football

Tulane - dont rule it out, NO is a great football market but I doubt it

Boise - too far, not big enough market
Click to expand...
Memphis isn't a basketball juggernaut. They had a great period with Cal. Other than that, they had a couple good sets of years and have been pretty average otherwise. Their market is not very big.
 
BYU is a definite. Houston will be a no the texas schools will nix that idea, One interesting scenario that I read was CT or Cincy only for football no other sports, Memphis just don't think they add anything I could see the possible ASU or Arizona. I could also see Colorado St. Final cut BYU & Colorado ST
 
BYU would certainly bring in the culture of rape that has been a major consideration of recent additions to the big 10.

I truly think none of these teams will be included. I think maybe Oklahoma and Texas?? I cant see any of the teams mentioned joining the Big 10. They like to think in their heads they have a good scholastic base to the conference, all these schools kinda wipe that out.
 
yourhired said:
BYU is a definite. Houston will be a no the texas schools will nix that idea, One interesting scenario that I read was CT or Cincy only for football no other sports, Memphis just don't think they add anything I could see the possible ASU or Arizona. I could also see Colorado St. Final cut BYU & Colorado ST
Click to expand...

FedEx will pay big money to get Memphis in, they've already made this known. I think they are a lock.

I believe Houston is second in line, followed by Cincinnati.

Nobody is leaving a power conference for the Big XII.
 
President Stache said:
BYU would certainly bring in the culture of rape that has been a major consideration of recent additions to the big 10.

I truly think none of these teams will be included. I think maybe Oklahoma and Texas?? I cant see any of the teams mentioned joining the Big 10. They like to think in their heads they have a good scholastic base to the conference, all these schools kinda wipe that out.
Click to expand...

Not the Big Ten, the discussion is expansion of Big 12.
 
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mvk112 said:
FedEx will pay big money to get Memphis in, they've already made this known. I think they are a lock.

I believe Houston is second in line, followed by Cincinnati.

Nobody is leaving a power conference for the Big XII.
Click to expand...
FedEx doesn't really have "big money" to get Memphis in when you break down the economics long term. FedEx's "big money" is really pledged to make Memphis more attractive via money committed to improve their AD, not money that gets distributed to B12 teams.

What do you think FedEx can do to actually make a "big money" impact to the individual B12 teams?

My guess would be the rankings are
1. BYU
2. Houston (perhaps TX schools fighting though)
3. Cincy
4. UCF
5. USF
6. UConn
7. Memphis
8. Colorado State

9. No one else has a shot
 
Memphis & Houston makes the most sense. However, Houston is a long shot because the other Texas schools don't want to recruit against Herman as a Power 5 school.

Keep your eye on Tulane... Great academics, a geographical fit and has the New Orleans TV market... Cincinnati, Boise and BYU are too far...
 
pittmeister said:
Memphis & Houston makes the most sense. However, Houston is a long shot because the other Texas schools don't want to recruit against Herman as a Power 5 school.

Keep your eye on Tulane... Great academics, a geographical fit and has the New Orleans TV market... Cincinnati, Boise and BYU are too far...
Click to expand...

Whatever the Big XII does expansion-wise at this time, with the available schools being mentioned, it will be nothing more than a mini-merger with the American Athletic Conference. More mouths to feed and adding programs that do absolutely nothing to move the prestige/attractiveness/interest needle.

Hard to believe that schools like Texas and Oklahoma would be enamored of this.
 
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Jpripper88 said:
FedEx doesn't really have "big money" to get Memphis in when you break down the economics long term. FedEx's "big money" is really pledged to make Memphis more attractive via money committed to improve their AD, not money that gets distributed to B12 teams.

What do you think FedEx can do to actually make a "big money" impact to the individual B12 teams?

My guess would be the rankings are
1. BYU
2. Houston (perhaps TX schools fighting though)
3. Cincy
4. UCF
5. USF
6. UConn
7. Memphis
8. Colorado State

9. No one else has a shot
Click to expand...

FedEx has pledged big money in advertising and sponsorships if Memphis gets in.

http://espn.go.com/college-football...usinesses-helping-big-12-expansion-candidates

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...phis-fedex-big-12-expansion-championship-game

Memphis' package to the Big 12 included a letter from FedEx chairman Fred Smith, which stated that the company would be willing to become a "major Big 12 sponsor" in football and basketball if the conference were to include Memphis in their expansion plans, including sponsoring a championship game.
 
pittmeister said:
Memphis & Houston makes the most sense. However, Houston is a long shot because the other Texas schools don't want to recruit against Herman as a Power 5 school.

Keep your eye on Tulane... Great academics, a geographical fit and has the New Orleans TV market... Cincinnati, Boise and BYU are too far...
Click to expand...
Tulane has the TV market ?? I would think LSU has the TV market for the whole state. Tulane as a sports addition is not that highly thought of.
 
rojo36 said:
Tulane has the TV market ?? I would think LSU has the TV market for the whole state. Tulane as a sports addition is not that highly thought of.
Click to expand...


I didn't say they owned the TV market, I said they have a TV market. There is potential if they win. If they get into a power 5 conference, they can get a better coach. They are also in a strong recruiting area. People said the same thing about Pitt during expansion outside of PA; "Gee, Pitt brings no TV market. PSU has that locked up already." But the hoopies quickly corrected them and said they owned the Pittsburgh TV market....

Remember, anything is possible. Example: Rutgers to the Big Ten???
 
pittmeister said:
I didn't say they owned the TV market, I said they have a TV market. There is potential if they win. If they get into a power 5 conference, they can get a better coach. They are also in a strong recruiting area. People said the same thing about Pitt during expansion outside of PA; "Gee, Pitt brings no TV market. PSU has that locked up already." But the hoopies quickly corrected them and said they owned the Pittsburgh TV market....

Remember, anything is possible. Example: Rutgers to the Big Ten???
Click to expand...

Well, if TV markets matter, . . . then what is Philadelphia?
 
If it's two the two most logical are obviously BYU and Memphis. If it's four then they are doing something that makes no logical sense, so who knows who the other two would be. Probably Cincinnati and UCF would be the most logical. Houston makes no logical sense what so ever. Literally, none.
 
Piranha said:
The Governor of TX said the Big 12 expansion must include Houston.
Click to expand...
He has no control over the Big 12 expansion. The Texas schools alone don't give Houston the votes needed to be invited. The real list in order is...

BYU
Cincinnati
UCONN
UCF
Memphis
USF
Houston
 
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