Clemson joins FSU in suing the ACC

[Sean Miller Fan]

My guess is Clemson would go to the SEC.

The SEC added Texas when it already had aTm, over the Aggies' strenuous objections. The precedent is there.

Texas A&M had no say. New member and the Lonestar State is the size of a medium-sized country. A&M doesnt carry that state. Austin is a new market and UT is a blue blood and by far the most popular team there. The SEC would have kicked Texas A&M out to get Texas if they had to.

Florida State will 100% be in the SEC. Florida doesnt want them and Alabama, Georgia, and others probably dont either but they also dont want the Big Ten in Florida.

Clemson isnt a big enough brand and not in an important enough market for the SEC to add Duplicate South Carolina. They go to the Big Ten I think.

UNC and UVa will go to the SEC. I dont think Pitt to the SEC is as far-fetched as it sounds. It eats into the Big Ten's market a little and its a good market.

Colorado ends up in the SEC or B10 eventually. Maybe Arizona also. Arizona State doesnt have the akademix for the B10 but could possibly join the SEC.

NC State and VT have to hope for the B10 but may wind up in the ACC/B12 leftover league. Miami could be in the leftover league, B10, or SEC. My guess is the B10. The SEC probably wont want 3 Florida teams and may feel that they already own South Florida with UF and FSU.

 

[pittmeister]

My guess is Clemson would go to the SEC.

The SEC added Texas when it already had aTm, over the Aggies' strenuous objections. The precedent is there.

Don't be shocked if Texas A&M gets an invite to the Big Ten and they accept. Watch and see.

 

[Joe Magarac]

Texas A&M had no say. New member and the Lonestar State is the size of a medium-sized country. A&M doesnt carry that state. Austin is a new market and UT is a blue blood and by far the most popular team there. The SEC would have kicked Texas A&M out to get Texas if they had to.

Florida State will 100% be in the SEC. Florida doesnt want them and Alabama, Georgia, and others probably dont either but they also dont want the Big Ten in Florida.

Clemson isnt a big enough brand and not in an important enough market for the SEC to add Duplicate South Carolina. They go to the Big Ten I think.

UNC and UVa will go to the SEC. I dont think Pitt to the SEC is as far-fetched as it sounds. It eats into the Big Ten's market a little and its a good market.

Colorado ends up in the SEC or B10 eventually. Maybe Arizona also. Arizona State doesnt have the akademix for the B10 but could possibly join the SEC.

NC State and VT have to hope for the B10 but may wind up in the ACC/B12 leftover league. Miami could be in the leftover league, B10, or SEC. My guess is the B10. The SEC probably wont want 3 Florida teams and may feel that they already own South Florida with UF and FSU.

So it shall be written.
So it shall be done.

 

[CrazyPaco]

Don't be shocked if Texas A&M gets an invite to the Big Ten and they accept. Watch and see.

They have GOR issues to deal with too.

 

[forbesfield]

I can't think of a bigger culture clash than A&M in the Big Ten.

 

[West Coast Panther]

That's why I keep saying hopefully Pitt can go to the Big XII once the ACC floodgates open.

I think FSU, Clemson, UNC, and most likely UVA, NCState and VT have landing spots in the SEC/BIG. Miami most likely as well. At that point, the Big XII is the better conference IMO.

I also think that if say VT, NC State, etc dont' have a landing spot, once UNC, FSU and Clemson leave, they will look to the Big XII as well.

lets face it though, the Big XII is a second class conference in that scenario

although admittedly one might say that about the ACC now.

 

[ThePanthers]

lets face it though, the Big XII is a second class conference in that scenario

although admittedly one might say that about the ACC now.

Acc and big xii are below the sec and big 10 now and won’t catch up. I’d rather be in a best of the rest 3rd conference than not

 

[Las Panteras]

Acc and big xii are below the sec and big 10 now and won’t catch up. I’d rather be in a best of the rest 3rd conference than not

Agree

I will re state my position. I believe we are a football school first ( though i am happy our hoops program is elevating).

We have joined two basketball-centric conferences in the past 30 years.

Its time to land in a football first conference. I am perfectly fine playing Texas Tech and Ok State more than I am playing Wake and Virginia.

And Pitt WVU makes us relevant over Thanksgiving. Thats important.

 

[Las Panteras]

I dont think Pitt to the SEC is as far-fetched as it sounds. It eats into the Big Ten's market a little and its a good market.

The SEC in this scenario, would never pick Pitt over WVU. The SEC will not spend 5 minutes considering Pitt....but they absolutely will debate the cost / benefit of West Virginia

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The SEC in this scenario, would never pick Pitt over WVU. The SEC will not spend 5 minutes considering Pitt....but they absolutely will debate the cost / benefit of West Virginia

I disagree. WVU isnt a big enough market or a good enough program. Its a little better program than Pitt but Pittsburgh is the bigger market, better recruiting, and academics do matter a little bit to the SEC.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Agree

I will re state my position. I believe we are a football school first ( though i am happy our hoops program is elevating).

We have joined two basketball-centric conferences in the past 30 years.

Its time to land in a football first conference. I am perfectly fine playing Texas Tech and Ok State more than I am playing Wake and Virginia.

And Pitt WVU makes us relevant over Thanksgiving. Thats important.

Or just invite those teams to the ACC so we can cut out worthless teams/markets:

Iowa State - good teams but no one lives in Iowa and they are Iowa's #2

Cincy, Houston: dont need commuter schools with small fanbases

Arizona State, BYU, TCU, KSt: dont need duplicate markets. We have SMU and can take Az and Utah.

 

[WillyDavis33]

I spoke to soon I guess.

I actually thought this would go away for a while with FSU potentially seeing an easier path to the playoff, but I guess not.

Your Ped St Degree in English is showing again!

 

[gilligan 3]

What people do will depend on what happens with the ACC's contract with ESPN. There is a lot to play out.

FSU is almost definitely going to lose in court, and Clemson is likely to as well.

UNC is the lynch pin.

There is really nothing attractive for any of the ACC schools in the B12. Fleeing there would be a panic move.

Clemson may lose their suit but I’ve spent a lot of time in that area. Clemson is like the holy grail to everyone in Pickett County. If there is anyway for courts to find in their favor, they will.

And after watching 9 seasons of Suits to placate my wife who supported watching 2 NBA or college basketball games ever night, I know that there are lots more to winning a case than an iron clad agreement. There could be all kinds of details in there to support the alternate view. The summary of FSU’s filings made it clear they at least have some points in their favor.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Clemson may lose their suit but I’ve spent a lot of time in that area. Clemson is like the holy grail to everyone in Pickett County. If there is anyway for courts to find in their favor, they will.

And after watching 9 seasons of Suits to placate my wife who supported watching 2 NBA or college basketball games ever night, I know that there are lots more to winning a case than an iron clad agreement. There could be all kinds of details in there to support the alternate view. The summary of FSU’s filings made it clear they at least have some points in their favor.

FSU and Clemson arent going to lose at home. The hope is that the ACC has jurisdiction in NC.

 

[Manster]

I disagree. WVU isnt a big enough market or a good enough program. Its a little better program than Pitt but Pittsburgh is the bigger market, better recruiting, and academics do matter a little bit to the SEC.

It's not about market size, it's about eyeballs. And, WVU has much better TV numbers than Pitt or about two-thirds of the ACC. I'm not predicting WVU to the SEC, but I can guarantee you they would be chosen over Pitt.

You guys had better realize it's time to swallow hard and start realizing the B12 is likely your best long-term option. The ACC is done and, even if it survives without FSU, Clemson, UNC, it will absolutely be well below the B12 in every measurable way.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It's not about market size, it's about eyeballs. And, WVU has much better TV numbers than Pitt or about two-thirds of the ACC. I'm not predicting WVU to the SEC, but I can guarantee you they would be chosen over Pitt.

You guys had better realize it's time to swallow hard and start realizing the B12 is likely your best long-term option. The ACC is done and, even if it survives without FSU, Clemson, UNC, it will absolutely be well below the B12 in every measurable way.

Its always about TV market. And Pitt has really good TV numbers. Recruiting market also comes into play. Not that WPA is that good but its much better than WV. And Pitt can sell going at the Big Ten in that PSU/OSU/Michigan triangle.

My problem with the B12 is the crap markets and duplicate markets. I wouldn’t mind seeing a merged league but cutting out the crap. You dont need 2 Kansas's, Utahs, Arizonas, Alt Iowa, or Houston and Cincinnati community colleges. I'd be good with a league like this

Pitt
WVU
Syr
BC
Lou
UConn
VT
NC St
Duke (maybe not Wake)
GT
Miami
UCF
SMU or TCU (not both)
Baylor
TT
OK St
Kansas
Utah
Arizona
Cal
Stanford

 

[thebadby2]

I can't think of a bigger culture clash than A&M in the Big Ten.

Rutgers gives ‘em a run for it.

 

[Burgh15]

That time of year again?

 

[CrazyPaco]

 

[martingale]

My guess is Clemson would go to the SEC.

The SEC added Texas when it already had aTm, over the Aggies' strenuous objections. The precedent is there.

Perhaps. Texas had the Longhorn Network and has always been the premier university in the state.
Austin metro area has a population of 2.28m in a state of just under 30m.

Clemson brings in Greenville-Spartanburg population approximate 500k in a state of just over 5.1m. It also does not have a TV network and not the premier university in the state.

I am skeptical the math works in favor of Clemson. Much like Virginia Tech, those schools are not in the most desirable TV markets.

 

[Pitt2009]

The Big Ten evaluated something like 10 schools in doing their due diligence. It was evaluated because it is within the footprint and, because if they'd send it to the presidents for a vote, it helps that Pitt is a major research university in the AAU. Pitt wasn't close at all to getting into the Big Ten. Pitt has a Penn State problem for that conference, and has since 1990. Pitt has zero chance at the SEC. It doesn't fit culturally at all. You don't see the SEC running off to add teams all over the country; it still cares about cultural fit. The SEC is not going to add a team in Western PA that draws 45K per game that none of its existing members have any ties to. It's got plenty of excellent options below the Mason Dixon line.

I’ll preface this by saying it’s highly likely Pitt is not in the SEC. But what does the SEC do if the Big 10 adds FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA?

NC State and Virginia Tech seem obvious, but after that…?

 

[prez41]

I think (and this is just my opinion), TV market is going to matter less and less in these decisions. Actual eyeballs, on field success and marketability will be far more important. That makes Clemson and FSU desirable, even if the TV markets aren’t huge. That being said, I don’t think either will get full shares right off the bat to go to the SEC or Fat 10.

 

[Hardslider21]

Notre Dame will join a conference. Will it be the ACC?

No it’s the B1G or they stay independent.
That reason is Hockey, they fought to get in the B1G for that reason.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I’ll preface this by saying it’s highly likely Pitt is not in the SEC. But what does the SEC do if the Big 10 adds FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA?

NC State and Virginia Tech seem obvious, but after that…?

Colorado. Market is too good to not be in a P2

 

[prez41]

Colorado. Market is too good to not be in a P2

But, outside of the Sanders era, does anyone care about Colorado?

 

[CrazyPaco]

Perhaps. Texas had the Longhorn Network and has always been the premier university in the state.
Austin metro area has a population of 2.28m in a state of just under 30m.

Clemson brings in Greenville-Spartanburg population approximate 500k in a state of just over 5.1m. It also does not have a TV network and not the premier university in the state.

I am skeptical the math works in favor of Clemson. Much like Virginia Tech, those schools are not in the most desirable TV markets.

The Longhorn network was not getting renewed. It was a complete failure for ESPN, which also owns the SEC network, so UT didn't bring anything network wise.

Clemson is the premier university in SC, particularly athletically, and academically (at least on the undergrad side).

The math may still not work, but the SEC also may play defense to keep the B10 out of the south, and Clemson fits the profile of an SEC school perfectly.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

But, outside of the Sanders era, does anyone care about Colorado?

Does anyone care about Rutgers or Maryland? Denver is an outstanding market. They will be P2 eventually.

 

[CrazyPaco]

No it’s the B1G or they stay independent.
That reason is Hockey, they fought to get in the B1G for that reason.

ND did not fight to get in the B10 for hockey.

ND has a historical grudge against the Big10, which is why they spurned decades of standing invites to join and placed their sports in the Big East and ACC and their hockey team initially in Hockey East.

They only moved to the B10 for hockey because travel was ridiculous in Hockey East. There was no fight in that move. The B10 loved it.

But if ND decides it has to place its football team in a conference, it first has to wait until its contract with the ACC expires (2036 apparently like everyone else), or else it is obligated to place it in the ACC like it did the COVID year. After that, if independence is no longer tenable, it would have its choice of the B10 or SEC (unless it wants to form its own conference) but obviously the B10 fits more for geographical reasons.

 

[Manster]

Does anyone care about Rutgers or Maryland? Denver is an outstanding market. They will be P2 eventually.

The Big10 realizes picking up Rutgers & Maryland was a mistake. They fell into the same trap you are still in....thinking Rutgers is in a "big market", so clearly they make sense. Once again, it's not about the size of the potential market, it's about how many eyeballs the program will attract. Rutgers attracts almost zero NYC / NJ eyeballs. Neither of the Big 2 will make that mistake again.

 

[pittdan77]

The Big10 realizes picking up Rutgers & Maryland was a mistake. They fell into the same trap you are still in....thinking Rutgers is in a "big market", so clearly they make sense. Once again, it's not about the size of the potential market, it's about how many eyeballs the program will attract. Rutgers attracts almost zero NYC / NJ eyeballs. Neither of the Big 2 will make that mistake again.

Back then, it had to do with getting the conference network carriage fees foisted on several million households that otherwise weren't getting the network. Whether that continues, going forward, is a different discussion.

 

[CrazyPaco]

I’ll preface this by saying it’s highly likely Pitt is not in the SEC. But what does the SEC do if the Big 10 adds FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA?

NC State and Virginia Tech seem obvious, but after that…?

The SEC would likely counteroffer those four schools.

I'd think Clemson and FSU would preferentially go to the SEC.

UNC and UVA, tougher to say. And as you said, there is VT (closer to an SEC type school anyway) and NCSU.

And now the UNC system board has to approve any membership change, so that means this has to be more coordinated in that UNC and NCSU probably have to move at the near same time.

Miami is also there as a backup or add.

Or the SEC could be content as it is. I don't expect it will get into any panic adds.

 

[CrazyPaco]

Back then, it had to do with getting the conference network carriage fees foisted on several million households that otherwise weren't getting the network. Whether that continues, going forward, is a different discussion.

Exactly. And how is it a mistake? Are their media contracts suffering because membership includes Rutgers and Maryland? Doesn't look like it.

 

[pittdan77]

Exactly. And how is it a mistake? Are their media contracts suffering because membership includes Rutgers and Maryland? Doesn't look like it.

It's not. Any future consolidation is aimed at creating a more valuable product that can be pushed into a greater and greater number of subscribers. It doesn't matter than nobody watches Vandy on TV. Just matters that the entire package can be sold at a premium on the platforms where it's offered AND able to be streamed.

And so far as Rutgers and Maryland are concerned, there are plenty of people who live in those two schools media footprint that have a lot of interest in the B1G and want to be able to watch their games. It's funny how major media markets are like that.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Does anyone care about Rutgers or Maryland? Denver is an outstanding market. They will be P2 eventually.

Denver is a city made up of transplants and people who don't care about CU athletics or college sports in general. There are likely as many Nebraska fans there as CU fans.

 

[Las Panteras]

It's not. Any future consolidation is aimed at creating a more valuable product that can be pushed into a greater and greater number of subscribers. It doesn't matter than nobody watches Vandy on TV. Just matters that the entire package can be sold at a premium on the platforms where it's offered AND able to be streamed.

And so far as Rutgers and Maryland are concerned, there are plenty of people who live in those two schools media footprint that have a lot of interest in the B1G and want to be able to watch their games. It's funny how major media markets are like that.

Makes top much sense for some on this board.

And, as far as eyeballs, I think Kansas is the school in a sweet spot going forward. Like UNC, both big 2 would have a legitimate interest .

 

[pittdan77]

Makes top much sense for some on this board.

And, as far as eyeballs, I think Kansas is the school in a sweet spot going forward. Like UNC, both big 2 would have a legitimate interest .

Kansas' is more like Pitt. Not the biggest fan base and the largest nearby TV market is already overlapped by the SEC. UNC is more geographically desirable.

 

[Hardslider21]

ND did not fight to get in the B10 for hockey.

ND has a historical grudge against the Big10, which is why they spurned decades of standing invites to join and placed their sports in the Big East and ACC and their hockey team initially in Hockey East.

They only moved to the B10 for hockey because travel was ridiculous in Hockey East. There was no fight in that move. The B10 loved it.

But if ND decides it has to place its football team in a conference, it first has to wait until its contract with the ACC expires (2036 apparently like everyone else), or else it is obligated to place it in the ACC like it did the COVID year. After that, if independence is no longer tenable, it would have its choice of the B10 or SEC (unless it wants to form its own conference) but obviously the B10 fits more for geographical reasons.

Well I can’t argue with you, I was told something different from a hockey fanatic who is a Ohio State graduate. I do expect at some point their inclusion in the league will be contingent on them joining fully.

As far as football goes, I think it’s going to be it’s own league. B1G = NFC & SEC = AFC with 24 teams in each. Maybe basketball follows or is included somehow. The rest of the sports will return to a mostly regional schedule. Stanford won’t have to come to Pittsburgh and USC won’t have to come to NJ for volleyball or softball. Which makes sense, and restores local interest.

 

[Manster]

Back then, it had to do with getting the conference network carriage fees foisted on several million households that otherwise weren't getting the network. Whether that continues, going forward, is a different discussion.

Problem is, that was when linear TV drove all decisions. Linear TV is dying a slow death and cable companies know it. So, if you think what drove those decisions 10 years ago are what are going to drive them today, you are mistaken. Comcast, Spectrum and the like aren't going to be able to foist their packages on subscribers.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Makes top much sense for some on this board.

And, as far as eyeballs, I think Kansas is the school in a sweet spot going forward. Like UNC, both big 2 would have a legitimate interest .

SEC already has a presence in KC with Mizzou. No chance they take Kansas. I guess the B10 could eventually.

 

[pittdan77]

Problem is, that was when linear TV drove all decisions. Linear TV is dying a slow death and cable companies know it. So, if you think what drove those decisions 10 years ago are what are going to drive them today, you are mistaken. Comcast, Spectrum and the like aren't going to be able to foist their packages on subscribers.

Right, that's why I said it's open to debate going forward. It still has very little to do with who watches a particular team when it comes to the value to the market. Sometimes there is value in keeping the competition shut out. You're also assuming that the market will be static. All it takes is the right booster and the right coach and Rutgers could become Clemson.