Completely, completely agree! This is why Terrell Brown is likely to be our starting center next year (as long as he doesn't transfer of course). It's not that he'll be that good, but he'll most likely be the best we'll have next year. To SMF's point, perhaps that means we won't be even a bubble team this year. Perhaps he's right.
But no one ever suggested that the road back would be quick or easy. That is, until Capel is able to one of the couple guys left for the rest of the country Thompson was talking about.
"To SMF's point, perhaps that means we won't be even a bubble team this year. Perhaps he's right."
So, what will it take to be a bubble team next season? Or, even the NIT? Or, lastly, get enough wins to make Pitt fans believe that the trajectory of Pitt hoops is continuing upward?
IMHO-- Even with a more talented team that we are expecting, the schedule is on paper far more more difficult.
We play 20 (vs 18) ACC games and 11 (vs 13) OOC games. And, in the OOC we have a Big 10 challenge game, West Virginia and better than last year early season tournament opponents with Bradley followed by either Kansas State or Northwestern to play in Fort Myers Tipoff.
(1) So, how do we get to at least 19 wins prior to the ACC Tourney to get on the bubble? It would likely take going 9-2 OOC (not easy) and 10-10 ACC to get to 19-12. Anything less would likely require winning 2-3 games in the ACC Tourney to get to a 19-20 wins total.
(2) Short of getting to 19 wins and the bubble, what would it take to make the NIT?
IMO, getting at least one game over 0.500 would be needed to make the NIT. That would likely require something like 8-3 OOC + 8-12 ACC and going 1-1 in the ACC Tourney to finish 17-16 overall. Even that will be difficult.
(3) What minimal outcome would make casual Pitt fans believe the trajectory is continuing upward?
IMHO, that will take finishing within 3 games of 0.500 with a significant increase in ACC wins. IMO, that would, at a minimum, look something like 8-3 OOC + 6-14 ACC to get to 14-17 prior to the ACC tourney and an overall W-L finish marginally better than this past season's final 14-19 mark with perception saved by the having doubled the number of ACC wins.
Bottom Line: IMO, at the present moment next year's roster doesn't appear capable of the bubble or NIT. Even showing an upward trajectory appears a toss-up at this moment.
We all hope the closeout to recruiting will add enough additional talent to at least assure a continued upward trajectory at a minimum and, perhaps, even add enough to push chances to the NIT or bubble range.
We ought to know the answer by June, perhaps sooner. It should be interesting.