Does Heather have the authority

[gary2]

The problem with this math is that Pitt still has to pay someone to coach next season no matter what, and I don't think there's anyone they can get that is going to cause a notable spike in ticket sales or corporate promotions. What self-respecting coach is going to sign up for the chance to go 2-18 at Pitt?

Lyke has to retain Capel and hope that he gets a little bit of a bounce back and then you have a better situation to hire the next guy into. We can all bemoan these losing seasons, but people need to accept the fact that another 2023 losing season does absolutely nothing to the long-term attractiveness of this program. Trying to hurry up and burn cash just to put a new lottery ticket in a suit is not a real solution.

I'll repeat what I said a year ago also. There are still major COVID impacts to ticket sales, so the best case scenario for basketball revenue is still greatly diminished. Lyke will probably stick with the known costs with Capel before trying to convince the BOT that there's some huge ROI the minute we hire someone new.

You guys are selling this position like, "We want you to be the head coach of the most cursed P5 job. We sincerely expect you to finish 2-18 next year, and no matter how much time we promise you to set up your program, we will definitely try to fire you for cause after 4 seasons. You can't cheat, but you also clearly can't win games here clean."

The question is, the only question:
(The details are just that, details)

Do you try to start to get better today or wait a year? (How does waiting a year advance the program?)

That is it. Period.

 

[levance2]

The question is, the only question:
(The details are just that, details)

Do you try to start to get better today or wait a year? (How does waiting a year advance the program?)

That is it. Period.

There is zero reason to throw away millions of dollars for one year of satisfaction, wasted on people who largely don't even buy tickets.

Capel is toast, and I have been saying it longer than most. That doesn't mean we need to virtue signal and subject ourselves to financial hardship. I'm sure if Lyke could be anywhere near candid, she'd say she f***ed up and she regrets it, but at the current juncture, a second financial wrong doesn't make it right.

People are looking at this Capel extension in a vacuum and not within the context of the previous coach being fired for cause early in his contract. Firing the guy now with major money on the line does nothing except reinforce to the next coach that nothing coming out of any Pitt AD's mouth is true and we're watching over your shoulder starting the day you are hired. The next coach is pretty much guaranteed to inherit a program as bad as or worse than when Capel was hired.

What Lyke should do is take whatever quoted savings there is in keeping Capel for a year and redirect it as an investment in facilities and other infrastructure improvements that a future coach can leverage.

Would you rather have 1x improvement in 1 year, or 2x or 5x or 10x improvement in 3-5 years? Those are the questions real administrators are asking.

 

[PittPharm2002]

There is zero reason to throw away millions of dollars for one year of satisfaction, wasted on people who largely don't even buy tickets.

Capel is toast, and I have been saying it longer than most. That doesn't mean we need to virtue signal and subject ourselves to financial hardship. I'm sure if Lyke could be anywhere near candid, she'd say she f***ed up and she regrets it, but at the current juncture, a second financial wrong doesn't make it right.

People are looking at this Capel extension in a vacuum and not within the context of the previous coach being fired for cause early in his contract. Firing the guy now with major money on the line does nothing except reinforce to the next coach that nothing coming out of any Pitt AD's mouth is true and we're watching over your shoulder starting the day you are hired. The next coach is pretty much guaranteed to inherit a program as bad as or worse than when Capel was hired.

What Lyke should do is take whatever quoted savings there is in keeping Capel for a year and redirect it as an investment in facilities and other infrastructure improvements that a future coach can leverage.

Would you rather have 1x improvement in 1 year, or 2x or 5x or 10x improvement in 3-5 years? Those are the questions real administrators are asking.

Reasonable take

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I agree with everything you said except the Covid factor . There is no significant overhang on Pitts attendance do to peoples reluctance to go out , its the losing that has made even the most loyal of fans to lose interest . One down yr or even two with the hope that the young guys on your roster will mature is acceptable every now and then , but Pitt fans don’t even have that to go on . The programs a mess and there’s no easy way out that Pitts willing to take .

The Covid factor for attendance at a place like Pitt is still pretty significant. Pitt's fanbase has ALWAYS been very old. We've talked about that for years. Just a few months ago, Covid was hitting all-time highs. It has dropped considerably but we could get a wave next year that is worse than anything we've seen. We just dont know. Its another reason 2022-23 attendance is not a consideration for firing Capel and bringing in a new coach. For all we know, we may be playing in an empty gym again

 

[levance2]

I agree with everything you said except the Covid factor . There is no significant overhang on Pitts attendance do to peoples reluctance to go out , its the losing that has made even the most loyal of fans to lose interest . One down yr or even two with the hope that the young guys on your roster will mature is acceptable every now and then , but Pitt fans don’t even have that to go on . The programs a mess and there’s no easy way out that Pitts willing to take .

I don't really disagree with that either. Both are true, but only COVID literally closed the doors to fans. Regardless, the point is that annual cycle of "I'll buy tickets and they'll probably suck but that's still basketball" has ended, and it is way harder to convince people to come back.

Here's an interesting article about how hard it was to win back MLB fans after strikes:

Do Baseball’s Labor Fights Drive Fans Away?

As Major League Baseball’s owners and players struggle to come to terms for a pandemic-shortened 2020 season with the prospect of a work stoppage next year loom…

fivethirtyeight.com

Every program had to deal with COVID, so that is no unique excuse to us, but it should be obvious that better teams and better programs will "return to normal" a whole lot faster than bad programs like ours.

I think you are really making my point for me. Pitt fans have no reason to be excited next fall, and the team will be bad no matter who the coach is. You only get that new-coach bounce in enthusiasm and trust once, so why waste it on an empty arena and 15th place talent? Roll the dice on Capel next year and there's hardly any way it can be worse, and put the ~$4M toward facilities and future staff salaries.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don't really disagree with that either. Both are true, but only COVID literally closed the doors to fans. Regardless, the point is that annual cycle of "I'll buy tickets and they'll probably suck but that's still basketball" has ended, and it is way harder to convince people to come back.

Here's an interesting article about how hard it was to win back MLB fans after strikes:

Do Baseball’s Labor Fights Drive Fans Away?

As Major League Baseball’s owners and players struggle to come to terms for a pandemic-shortened 2020 season with the prospect of a work stoppage next year loom…

fivethirtyeight.com

Every program had to deal with COVID, so that is no unique excuse to us, but it should be obvious that better teams and better programs will "return to normal" a whole lot faster than bad programs like ours.

I think you are really making my point for me. Pitt fans have no reason to be excited next fall, and the team will be bad no matter who the coach is. You only get that new-coach bounce in enthusiasm and trust once, so why waste it on an empty arena and 15th place talent? Roll the dice on Capel next year and there's hardly any way it can be worse, and put the ~$4M toward facilities and future staff salaries.

You sound like me. I have said Pitt will sell, maybe 500 more season tickets if they hire a lottery ticket. The program is near death. There is nobody getting excited because we hired someone nobody ever heard of. With a new coach and mass transfers, the team will be picked 15th, and depending on the level of transfers he gets, could go 0-20 and it wouldn't even be his fault.

Pitt's best hope is that the key players return and they get to an NIT or at least be in consideration for an NCAAT at some point during the season.

 

[levance2]

You sound like me. I have said Pitt will sell, maybe 500 more season tickets if they hire a lottery ticket. The program is near death. There is nobody getting excited because we hired someone nobody ever heard of. With a new coach and mass transfers, the team will be picked 15th, and depending on the level of transfers he gets, could go 0-20 and it wouldn't even be his fault.

I think we already witnessed the best case scenario following an awful year when Capel managed to sign three legit recruits and take us from 0-18 to 3-15. Maybe someone could argue that the current ACC is so bad, we could find someone to move up the standings faster than in 2019, but that's a gamble only someone with SMF 420/20 hindsight can make.

 

[levance2]

The Covid factor for attendance at a place like Pitt is still pretty significant. Pitt's fanbase has ALWAYS been very old. We've talked about that for years. Just a few months ago, Covid was hitting all-time highs. It has dropped considerably but we could get a wave next year that is worse than anything we've seen. We just dont know. Its another reason 2022-23 attendance is not a consideration for firing Capel and bringing in a new coach. For all we know, we may be playing in an empty gym again

I'm not even talking about active COVID spread. We've gone two years now with abnormal sports seasons and restrictions. Lots of people, myself included, have learned to live without sports.

Beyond that, Pitt did a terrible job with young alumni outreach for the last 20 years. Those fans are gone and never coming back. The students watching the last six years of terrible teams are probably also never coming back. Who could even attempt to predict behaviors of high school or college students during COVID? It's unprecedented.

Who exactly is Pitt's target demo? And how is any coaching hire going to mobilize enough of that demo to matter?

 

[pittmeister]

There is zero reason to throw away millions of dollars for one year of satisfaction, wasted on people who largely don't even buy tickets.

Capel is toast, and I have been saying it longer than most. That doesn't mean we need to virtue signal and subject ourselves to financial hardship. I'm sure if Lyke could be anywhere near candid, she'd say she f***ed up and she regrets it, but at the current juncture, a second financial wrong doesn't make it right.

People are looking at this Capel extension in a vacuum and not within the context of the previous coach being fired for cause early in his contract. Firing the guy now with major money on the line does nothing except reinforce to the next coach that nothing coming out of any Pitt AD's mouth is true and we're watching over your shoulder starting the day you are hired. The next coach is pretty much guaranteed to inherit a program as bad as or worse than when Capel was hired.

What Lyke should do is take whatever quoted savings there is in keeping Capel for a year and redirect it as an investment in facilities and other infrastructure improvements that a future coach can leverage.

Would you rather have 1x improvement in 1 year, or 2x or 5x or 10x improvement in 3-5 years? Those are the questions real administrators are asking.

Bingo… We’ll said… Pay the man…

 

[HailToPitt1985]

There is zero reason to throw away millions of dollars for one year of satisfaction, wasted on people who largely don't even buy tickets.

Capel is toast, and I have been saying it longer than most. That doesn't mean we need to virtue signal and subject ourselves to financial hardship. I'm sure if Lyke could be anywhere near candid, she'd say she f***ed up and she regrets it, but at the current juncture, a second financial wrong doesn't make it right.

People are looking at this Capel extension in a vacuum and not within the context of the previous coach being fired for cause early in his contract. Firing the guy now with major money on the line does nothing except reinforce to the next coach that nothing coming out of any Pitt AD's mouth is true and we're watching over your shoulder starting the day you are hired. The next coach is pretty much guaranteed to inherit a program as bad as or worse than when Capel was hired.

What Lyke should do is take whatever quoted savings there is in keeping Capel for a year and redirect it as an investment in facilities and other infrastructure improvements that a future coach can leverage.

Would you rather have 1x improvement in 1 year, or 2x or 5x or 10x improvement in 3-5 years? Those are the questions real administrators are asking.

Agree 100%. What I'd like to see is Lyke coming out when she fires Capel and admit she made a huge mistake in hiring him. I know she won't. But that's what a true leader does...admit their mistakes and make corrections in an expeditious manner.