FiveThirtyEight has Pitt 8th in playoff rankings

[Fk_Pitt]

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

 

[HailtoPitt]

They also gave Trump a 0% chance at one point.

 

[UPitt '89]

They also gave Trump a 0% chance at one point.

False, they never did. On 538 in 2016, the lowest chance they had for a Trump victory was 21%.

 

[HailtoPitt]

False, they never did. On 538 in 2016, the lowest chance they had for a Trump victory was 21%.

Man. Did I get deceived by another internet falsehood. I'm getting old.

 

[DT_PITT]

False, they never did. On 538 in 2016, the lowest chance they had for a Trump victory was 21%.

Along the same lines, the chance they gave for a Trump victory was greater than any other site, even Real Clear Politics. And you are correct—at no time did they ever predict 0%.

I read 538 pretty regularly. They have plenty of fun sports stats.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Ok. We also know that 538 hasn’t been right all the time with politics. Can we bring it back to college football?

 

[WeaverIsComing]

Ok. We also know that 538 hasn’t been right all the time with politics. Can we bring it back to college football?

71 % chance to make playoffs if we win out, which goes down to 63 if the top 9 win.

 

[DT_PITT]

Ok. We also know that 538 hasn’t been right all the time with politics? Can we bring it back to college football?

I was just making the point that they are a good and reputable site and the stuff you posted should be viewed as pretty credible.

 

[UPitt '89]

Ok. We also know that 538 hasn’t been right all the time with politics? Can we bring it back to college football?

Well, it is relevant... in discussing what 538 means when they list the odds of something.


Saying that something has a 21% chance of happening is *NOT* predicting that it won't happen.

Things that have a 21% chance of happening happen all the time... or else a .210 hitter would never get a base hit.


So when 538 says Pitt has a 19% chance of making the playoff - they aren't predicting it won't happen. Frankly, I think Pitt having a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoff is extremely encouraging. And every time Pitt wins, that number will go up.

Of course, if Pitt loses ANY of their 5 remaining games, that number likely goes to 0%.

 

[NCanton Panther]

71 % chance to make playoffs if we win out, which goes down to 63 if the top 9 win.

I don’t know, my qualitative algorithm doesn’t give us a 71% probability of making the playoff if we win out.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I was just making the point that they are a good and reputable site and the stuff you posted should be viewed as pretty credible.

Not you. Just knowing how things go here, any mention of trump and a thread will go off the rails. I’m just trying to keep things focused on the right things.

 

[HailtoPitt]

False, they never did. On 538 in 2016, the lowest chance they had for a Trump victory was 21%.

Ok, here is.an article with a Nate Silver quote of 5% chance of winning the primary. I feel fairly sure Nate actually had Trump at zero percent at one point.

Nate Silver: Trump Has About 5% Chance Of Winning

Statistician and writer Nate Silver joins Anderson Cooper to share his evaluation of the Trump campaign.

www.realclearpolitics.com

Also, Nate Silver is now a clown. He is a celebrity who now seems entrenched with the establishment Dems and media. I recall him being noticably irratated when Bernie Sanders won a state.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There's no way. If the field was picked right now, it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Oklahoma
3. Cincy (ND win)
4. Alabama
5. MSU
6. Michigan (neither they or MSU have beaten anyone but MSU road win at Miami is the difference believe it or not)
7. Wake Forest (win at UVa)
8. Oregon
9. Ohio State
10. Ole Miss (only loss vs Bama)

The Western Michigan loss is so so bad that it pretty much knocks Pitt down to the lowest of the 1 loss teams. We are ranked where we should be right now.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Ok, here is.an article with a Nate Silver quote of 5% chance of winning the primary. I feel fairly sure Nate actually had Trump at zero percent at one point.

Nate Silver: Trump Has About 5% Chance Of Winning

Statistician and writer Nate Silver joins Anderson Cooper to share his evaluation of the Trump campaign.

www.realclearpolitics.com

Also, Nate Silver is now a clown. He is a celebrity who now seems entrenched with the establishment Dems and media. I recall him being noticably irratated when Bernie Sanders won a state.

He may have had him at 0% shortly after he announced his candidacy. I remember his chances were very low but could anyone blame him? Many people did not take him seriously. He wasn't a politician and was "famous for being famous."

 

[UPitt '89]

Ok, here is.an article with a Nate Silver quote of 5% chance of winning the primary. I feel fairly sure Nate actually had Trump at zero percent at one point.

Nate Silver: Trump Has About 5% Chance Of Winning

Statistician and writer Nate Silver joins Anderson Cooper to share his evaluation of the Trump campaign.

www.realclearpolitics.com

Also, Nate Silver is now a clown. He is a celebrity who now seems entrenched with the establishment Dems and media. I recall him being noticably irratated when Bernie Sanders won a state.

In the general election against Clinton, he never had Trump below 21%. I'm not talking about primaries.



And his personal politics don't impact the formulas used to generate probabilities.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

The math is the math. But Silver’s well on his way to becoming an insufferable pantload.

 

[WeaverIsComing]

Ok, here is.an article with a Nate Silver quote of 5% chance of winning the primary. I feel fairly sure Nate actually had Trump at zero percent at one point.

Nate Silver: Trump Has About 5% Chance Of Winning

Statistician and writer Nate Silver joins Anderson Cooper to share his evaluation of the Trump campaign.

www.realclearpolitics.com

Also, Nate Silver is now a clown. He is a celebrity who now seems entrenched with the establishment Dems and media. I recall him being noticably irratated when Bernie Sanders won a state.

the equivalent of giving Pitt a 5% chance to win the coastal, then them winning the NC

 

[pittjas]

There's no way. If the field was picked right now, it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Oklahoma
3. Cincy (ND win)
4. Alabama
5. MSU
6. Michigan (neither they or MSU have beaten anyone but MSU road win at Miami is the difference believe it or not)
7. Wake Forest (win at UVa)
8. Oregon
9. Ohio State
10. Ole Miss (only loss vs Bama)

The Western Michigan loss is so so bad that it pretty much knocks Pitt down to the lowest of the 1 loss teams. We are ranked where we should be right now.

you are too smart to post such dumb things.

It’s a predictive model. Not a “if things ended today model”.

 

[DT_PITT]

Not you. Just knowing how things go here, any mention of trump and a thread will go off the rails. I’m just trying to keep things focused on the right things.

I totally get that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

you are too smart to post such dumb things.

It’s a predictive model. Not a “if things ended today model”.

That makes sense. The thread title said rankings. Should have forecast.

If Pitt goes 12-1, we will make the CFP only if 4 of these things happen:

- Cincy loses
- OU loses 2
- the Big Ten champ has 2 losses
- Oregon loses 1 more
- Alabama loses 1 more
- ND loses 1 more

 

[HailtoPitt]

the equivalent of giving Pitt a 5% chance to win the coastal, then them winning the NC

Pretty much. Except it was 5% to win the primary when Trump was polling way higher. And that was just the primary, so more like 2.5% to become President. Epic fail.

 

[UPitt '89]

the equivalent of giving Pitt a 5% chance to win the coastal, then them winning the NC

If there were only 2 conferences, and the winner of each was guaranteed to be in the championship game.... then your analogy would be accurate.

 

[UPitt '89]

Pretty much. Except it was 5% to win the primary when Trump was polling way higher. And that was just the primary, so more like 2.5% to become President. Epic fail.

False, again.

Because the winner of the primary already has an elevated chance to win the election, since they're guaranteed to be in the "championship game".

 

[HailtoPitt]

False, again.

Because the winner of the primary already has an elevated chance to win the election, since they're guaranteed to be in the "championship game".

No. Since Nate gave Trump a 5% chance to win the primary, and the primary winner has about a 50/50 chance of winning the general election, then he was essentially giving Trump a 2.5% chance of becoming President.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

you are too smart to post such dumb things.

It’s a predictive model. Not a “if things ended today model”.

I'll give you a 99% chance that you're the only one on here who thinks that.

 

[PeetWeet1]

Man. Did I get deceived by another internet falsehood. I'm getting old.

No, you didn’t. They gave Trump a 0% to win the primary. It was like Nate forgot his own advice to trust polls over pundits.

 

[HailtoPitt]

No, you didn’t. They gave Trump a 0% to win the primary. It was like Nate forgot his own advice to trust polls over pundits.

Ok, thanks.

 

[RLMadison76]

There's no way. If the field was picked right now, it would be:

1. Georgia
2. Oklahoma
3. Cincy (ND win)
4. Alabama
5. MSU
6. Michigan (neither they or MSU have beaten anyone but MSU road win at Miami is the difference believe it or not)
7. Wake Forest (win at UVa)
8. Oregon
9. Ohio State
10. Ole Miss (only loss vs Bama)

The Western Michigan loss is so so bad that it pretty much knocks Pitt down to the lowest of the 1 loss teams. We are ranked where we should be right now.

You’re so right, as much as I would love the playoff miracle I don’t see a major conference one loss team that Pitt would be ranked ahead of… our only hope is complete and utter chaos everywhere ie. Iowa State coming back to win the Big 12… Oregon losing in the Pac 12, the Big 10 cannibalizing itself and getting a 2 loss champ. Even Notre Dame (as much as I can’t stand it) could be an issue if they win out (UNC/UVA go knock them out). Still, it’s pretty awesome to be sitting here worrying about the playoff… as opposed to bowl eligibility or Narduzzi’s buyout ha ha

 

[HailtoPitt]

Pitt needs Wake Forest to keep winning and go into the ACC Championship Game ranked highly.

 

[Chairman Moe]

Still, it’s pretty awesome to be sitting here worrying about the playoff… as opposed to bowl eligibility or Narduzzi’s buyout ha ha

Hey! That’s right! We already ARE bowl eligible!!

HTP!

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

you are too smart to post such dumb things.

It’s a predictive model. Not a “if things ended today model”.

False.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

If Pitt goes 12-1, we will make the CFP only if 4 of these things happen:

- Cincy loses
- OU loses 2
- the Big Ten champ has 2 losses
- Oregon loses 1 more
- Alabama loses 1 more
- ND loses 1 more

We don't know how the CFP committee would rank Oregon or Oklahoma loss if their loss was in a conference championship game, and Pitt had a conference championship. So far I think only Bama and OSU have gotten in as non conference champs.

We also don't know how they'll rank Cincy. I could see the argument for 13-0 Cincy over 12-1 Pitt personally, but the history of the CFP so far has been strong skepticism towards the G5. They had undefeated UCF at #12 the last week of 2017. Their highest playoff ranking during their 25? game winning streak was #8.

It'll be interesting to see, I hope we're good enough to find out that SMF is wrong.

 

[Pitt2006]

Another caveat is that the year the SEC got two teams in, Alabama and Georgia had yet to play one another. Georgia had beaten Auburn and allowed Alabama to take that other spot. Would the committee want a potential rematch? Would viewers? I guess it depends on the final score of the SEC champ game.

As for comparison with other one loss champs, Pitt may not have the strongest SOS, but they do have one of the highest game control rankings (how likely a top 25 team would control the game given the same schedule), ranking only behind, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Michigan. Oklahoma has not been impressive in most wins. I find it hard that they would run the table and it is possible their close wins against Tulane, Kansas, WVU come into play. But if "eye test" is a factor, I think it helps Pitt make a case. Particularly with the remaining schedule, including Wake, not having great defenses, it will allow for Pitt's offense to shine. Or maybe they keep it vanilla in the 4th to prevent injuries.

 

[pitt90seven]

FFS you guys ruin threads. stop it.

 

[pittdan77]

We also don't know how they'll rank Cincy. I could see the argument for 13-0 Cincy over 12-1 Pitt personally, but the history of the CFP so far has been strong skepticism towards the G5. They had undefeated UCF at #12 the last week of 2017. Their highest playoff ranking during their 25? game winning streak was #8.

They've used strength of schedule before so I imagine they could use that again because Cincy's schedule is hot garbage.

 

[Pitt2006]

That makes sense. The thread title said rankings. Should have forecast.

If Pitt goes 12-1, we will make the CFP only if 4 of these things happen:

- Cincy loses
- OU loses 2
- the Big Ten champ has 2 losses
- Oregon loses 1 more
- Alabama loses 1 more
- ND loses 1 more

I think we could add a Georgia picks up a loss prior to the SEC champ game, though unlikely.

Cincy may have to play SMU twice, once in regular season and again in the champ game. Hard to beat the same team twice in a row.
OU has a weaker strength of schedule than Pitt so far and has struggled. They have talent, but still have OK State, Iowa State, and then the conference champ game.
Oregon has been hanging on....
Really hoping Virginia takes down ND.
Alabama still has Auburn and Georgia.
B1G still has the round robin east tourney (would need help unfortunately from PSU).

 

[pittdan77]

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

This is pretty cool. You can click around and see how different scenarios change a teams expected chances. Predictive modeling is sexy.

 

[Pitt2006]

This is pretty cool. You can click around and see how different scenarios change a teams expected chances. Predictive modeling is sexy.

If you click too many upsets, it will also warn you the probability of such is close to non-existent, but fun to play with.

 

[WeaverIsComing]

Teams whose losses give Pitt the best % gains.. Alabama, Oregon, Cincinatti, Notre Dame.

Alabama loss gets Pitt to 81%..
Oregon 79%
Cincy/ND 77%

 

[joeydavid]

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

148 scenarios later...damn you for posting this...