Friday Morning Bubble Viewing Guide

[UPitt '89]

Lots of bubble-related action today after a moderate amount yesterday.

First, let's look at our Panthers. Their chances only dropped from 53.1% to 49.7%, which is in line with what most people are thinking - the loss to UNC didn't really hurt anything. Personally I think the percentages are 20-30% higher than that.

But let's get to it....

Thursday's Losers

Pitt

RPI is 54. It would be good for Pitt if bubble teams below them lose and if SDSU and Akron both win their leagues, especially SDSU.

USC

The Trojans missed an opportunity against Utah to emphatically punch their ticket. Now they sit and hope the committee is impressed with the Pac12's gaming of the RPI. Chances sit at 67.9%.

Butler

I think their situation is a little more precarious than their 55.7% chances indicate. I think they're behind Pitt. Tough blowout loss to Providence yesterday.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores came 1/10 of a second and a long video review from going to overtime....but their loss to 15-18 Tennessee was a crusher. The worst loss by a bubble team yesterday and it dropped their chances all the way down to 20.7% from 49.8%. They got reverse-Goheened. By former Pitt target Detrick Mostella, mostly.

Thursday's Winners

Providence

The Friars punched their ticket with a win over Butler. A lock at 96.9% now.

Florida

The Gators got a necessary win. Probably need at least one more, maybe two. Chances are at 38.1%.

Michigan

The Wolverines stayed alive with an OT win against Northwestern. Still have lots of work to do at 29.8%.

Ohio State

Similar to their rival Michigan, they got a win over a bad team to keep their slim hopes alive. But MSU awaits as their chances are at 13.3%.

George Washington

GW still needs two or three more wins after yesterday's win. Chances are at 17.8%.

Friday's Bubble Games

Michigan (RPI: 61 Chances: 29.8%)
vs Indiana
Noon, ESPN
- Michigan is the kind of team that Pitt does NOT want to see go on a run. Need to end it now. Go Hoosiers!

USF
vs Temple (RPI: 59 Chances: 88.8%)
Noon, ESPN2
- It feels like Temple is in a more precarious situation than the percentages indicate. A loss to a horrible USF team could plummet their chances significantly. Go Bulls!

Florida (RPI: 51 Chances: 38.1%)
vs Texas A&M
1:00, SECN
- Similar to Michigan, Pitt fans would like to see Florida's run end right now. A win against Texas A&M could vault them ahead of Pitt. Go Aggies!

UConn (RPI: 58 Chances: 62.1%)
vs Cincinnati (RPI: 40 Chances: 93.4%)
2:00, ESPN2
- It feels like this is a must-win for UConn, and I think Cincinnati's situation is not as safe as their percentage indicates. UConn would clearly be behind Pitt with a loss, so Go Bearcats!

George Washington (RPI: 62 Chances: 17.8%)
vs St. Joseph's (RPI: 32 Chances: 75.6%)
2:30, NBCSN
- St. Joe's can probably withstand a loss and still be in. GW cannot. Go Red Hawks!

Bowling Green
vs Akron (RPI: 29 Chances: 81.6%)
6:30, ESPN3
- With an RPI of 29, Akron might make the field as an at-large if they don't win the MAC. We want them to keep the MAC as a one-bid league by winning. Go Zips!

UMass
vs VCU (RPI: 42 Chances: 80.1%)
6:30, NBCSN
- VCU looks like a team that is in.... but a bad loss to UMass could make them nervous on Sunday. Go Minutemen!

Ohio State (RPI: 73 Chances: 13.3%)
vs Michigan State
6:30, BTN
- This is the kind of game that could vault Ohio State from NIT to safely in. We DO NOT want the Buckeyes to win this game. Go Fightin' Izzos!

Tulane
vs Houston (RPI: 74 Chances: 34.8%)
7:00, ESPNU
- The Cougars need a deep run to overcome their currently-poor RPI. Go Green Wave!

Memphis
vs Tulsa (RPI: 47 Chances: 67.5%)
9:00, ESPNU
- A Tulsa loss clearly puts them behind Pitt. Go Tigers!

Nevada
vs San Diego State (RPI: 39 Chances: 97.1%)
9:00, no TV
- The Aztecs are in, they aren't a bubble team. But if they lose, they become a bid-stealer. We want SDSU to win the Mountain West. Go Aztecs!

Davidson
vs St. Bonaventure (RPI: 25 Chances: 96.0%)
9:00, NBCSN
- The Bonnies are likely in, but on many projections they are behind Pitt and even playing in Dayton. If they lose, it increases Pitt's chances of avoiding Dayton... with the added bonus that a Davidson win helps Pitt's profile. Go Wildcats!

Georgia
vs South Carolina (RPI: 53 Chances: 43.6%)
9:00, SECN
- South Carolina sits right around Pitt on the bubble. A loss here helps Pitt immensely. Go Dawgs!

 

[Chairman Moe]

I will root for Florida, if only to get one more Bubble Shot of that cheerleader tomorrow!

 

[UPitt '89]

I will root for Florida, if only to get one more Bubble Shot of that cheerleader tomorrow!

Every day is a different cheerleader..... but I assure you, the Florida Gators have many more where that one came from.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Doomsday would be:

Mich and Florida make the finals

Tulsa or Houston beat UConn in final

SDSU doesnt win MW

GW beats SBU in finals

If all that happens, we won't make it but chances of all that is like 2% Not all of that has to happen though. If most of that happens, it'll be very nervy.

 

[UPitt '89]

Michigan only down by one to Indiana at the half.

We really want an Indiana win here.

 

[NTOP]

Not to be picky....but St. Joe's mascot is not a Red Hawk. They are simply The Hawks. Same as "Levon & The Hawks" Or "Ronnie Hawkins & The Hawks." Not red....though mostly dead, those guys.

 

[DT_PITT]

Michigan only down by one to Indiana at the half.

We really want an Indiana win here.

As hard as it is to root for Crean ...

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I will root for Florida, if only to get one more Bubble Shot of that cheerleader tomorrow!

My God. That one is something else huh?

 

[PA_Panther]

I swear every time I watch Indiana play #31 for them acts like a whiney little girl

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

This IU team won the Big Ten???

I find it interesting that there are 10 players on the floor without visible tattoos. That's unheard of.

 

[Fredact]

Son of a b$tch, Michigan.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Well, Michigan is 1 win away from a bid now and could possibly jump us with a win tomorrow. That Indiana team is BUT.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

That hurts!

Btw. He has Butler as a lock too.

 

[Scruffy the Panther]

I swear, every time I want Tom Crean to do well in a tournament he shits the bed. Like when I had his #1 seeded team making it to finals in my bracket and he had a pathetic performance against Syracuse.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Well, Michigan is 1 win away from a bid now and could possibly jump us with a win tomorrow. That Indiana team is BUT.

Their resume isn't better now?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Their resume isn't better now?

I dont think but you never know. They only have 4 Top 100 wins now but all inside Top 50.

 

[UPitt '89]

Their resume isn't better now?

No.

This is only their 4th Top 100 win.... their win over Indiana is equivalent to our win over Duke.

But we have 9 top 100 wins to their 4.

 

[UPitt '89]

Florida only down 2 at half. We need the Aggies to beat them.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I dont think but you never know. They only have 4 Top 100 wins now but all inside Top 50.

As Jerry Palm, said "this was a start". I still think they need at least one more win, especially over Purdue. Also, I don't think Michigan, even with two wins, passes Pitt. Today's loss was very bad for Monmouth, SMC, Wichita etc.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

As Jerry Palm, said "this was a start". I still think they need at least one more win, especially over Purdue. Also, I don't think Michigan, even with two wins, passes Pitt. Today's loss was very bad for Monmouth, SMC, Wichita etc.

Michigan has no losses worse than RPI 71. Strange resume. I do believe they pass us with a win tomorrow.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Their resume isn't better now?

No. And I don't think it would be unless they actually won the whole Big 10 tourney. A win tomorrow over Purdue might get them in, but not over us.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Greg Shaheen says 21 teams for 3 open spots. That would seem to indicate he thinks we are a lock if he says there's only 3 open.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Michigan has no losses worse than RPI 71. Strange resume. I do believe they pass us with a win tomorrow.

Palm had like 14 teams between us and Michigan. I don't think they jump that much with one win, or even two good wins.

I would give St Mary's like a 15% chance right now, Monmouth 25%, Wichita 51%

Pitt's in..99.9999%. On some lists they aren't even considered "bubble" anymore, and remember, an AAC team will lose today that couldn't possibly pass us.

 

[DT_PITT]

No. And I don't think it would be unless they actually won the whole Big 10 tourney. A win tomorrow over Purdue might get them in, but not over us.

Lunardi just moved Michigan to first 4 out.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Greg Shaheen says 21 teams for 3 open spots. That would seem to indicate he thinks we are a lock if he says there's only 3 open.

Makes sense.

Look at the bubble conversations today...Pitt isn't even really mentioned at all. I think there is an acceptance by everyone we are in.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Lunardi just moved Michigan to first 4 out.

As would I. So, one more win - Dayton. Two more wins - Field of 64. I don't think they pass us without the auto-bid

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

Thank you Aggies. Good Bye Gators!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Florida done.

GW blowing out the Lunardi's to stay alive.

The A10 is so hard to figure out. The RPIs of those teams are so good. I think they get 5, maybe 6 if GW beats Dayton tomorrow.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Florida done.

GW blowing out the Lunardi's to stay alive.

The A10 is so hard to figure out. The RPIs of those teams are so good. I think they get 5, maybe 6 if GW beats Dayton tomorrow.

I think Pitt should root for GW to beat St Joes, and then lose to Dayton.

I think St Joes, losing to Duquense, and now GW to close the year, probably falls below Pitt on the seed lines, GW still below us too. St Joes may be in Dayton now. Pitt's seed might go up with a StJoes loss.

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

The A-10 is one of those situations where none of them are that good, but they're all good enough to boost each others SOS/RPI.... it's kinda like a poor man's B12 in terms of SOS/RPI

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The A-10 is one of those situations where none of them are that good, but they're all good enough to boost each others SOS/RPI.... it's kinda like a poor man's B12 in terms of SOS/RPI

Exactly right. They have 5 or 6 good teams. They all beat each other 4 times and pound up Fordham, Duq, and whatever other crap is in that league. Its a perfect RPI league like the Mountain West up until this year.

 

[ClarkLotTgate]

Good Bye George Washington!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think everybody forgets that Temple is projected in the field as the American tourney champ as the 1 seed, but in reality, they are out of the field with a loss to UConn tomorrow. UConn/Temple is almost the exact same scenario as Pitt/Syr. Temple beat UConn twice but a UConn win tomorrow puts them in (they might be in already regardless) because they have better wins, a better RPI and getting that 1 win over Temple kinda cancels the 2 losses.

It would be great if the American stays a 2 bid league. Lets say UConn over Houston (or Memphis) in the final so Tulsa doesn't go.

Those in-between leagues like the American, A10, and Mountain West are so difficult to project because they don't have the top quality of the other leagues but have a lot of Top 50 and Top 100 teams to rack up wins against. So instead of playing RPI 10 RPI 11 RPI 18, they play RPI 38, RPI 42, RPI 28, etc and those games are so much easier to win.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Davidson/St. Bonaventure biggest game of the night. If Davidson makes the final, they could end up with a Top 50 RPI. The Bonnies would pass up Pitt if they win 2 or 3 so we need them out.