Lots of bubble-related action today after a moderate amount yesterday.
First, let's look at our Panthers. Their chances only dropped from 53.1% to 49.7%, which is in line with what most people are thinking - the loss to UNC didn't really hurt anything. Personally I think the percentages are 20-30% higher than that.
But let's get to it....
Thursday's Losers
Pitt
RPI is 54. It would be good for Pitt if bubble teams below them lose and if SDSU and Akron both win their leagues, especially SDSU.
USC
The Trojans missed an opportunity against Utah to emphatically punch their ticket. Now they sit and hope the committee is impressed with the Pac12's gaming of the RPI. Chances sit at 67.9%.
Butler
I think their situation is a little more precarious than their 55.7% chances indicate. I think they're behind Pitt. Tough blowout loss to Providence yesterday.
Vanderbilt
The Commodores came 1/10 of a second and a long video review from going to overtime....but their loss to 15-18 Tennessee was a crusher. The worst loss by a bubble team yesterday and it dropped their chances all the way down to 20.7% from 49.8%. They got reverse-Goheened. By former Pitt target Detrick Mostella, mostly.
Thursday's Winners
Providence
The Friars punched their ticket with a win over Butler. A lock at 96.9% now.
Florida
The Gators got a necessary win. Probably need at least one more, maybe two. Chances are at 38.1%.
Michigan
The Wolverines stayed alive with an OT win against Northwestern. Still have lots of work to do at 29.8%.
Ohio State
Similar to their rival Michigan, they got a win over a bad team to keep their slim hopes alive. But MSU awaits as their chances are at 13.3%.
George Washington
GW still needs two or three more wins after yesterday's win. Chances are at 17.8%.
Friday's Bubble Games
Michigan (RPI: 61 Chances: 29.8%)
vs Indiana
Noon, ESPN
- Michigan is the kind of team that Pitt does NOT want to see go on a run. Need to end it now. Go Hoosiers!
USF
vs Temple (RPI: 59 Chances: 88.8%)
Noon, ESPN2
- It feels like Temple is in a more precarious situation than the percentages indicate. A loss to a horrible USF team could plummet their chances significantly. Go Bulls!
Florida (RPI: 51 Chances: 38.1%)
vs Texas A&M
1:00, SECN
- Similar to Michigan, Pitt fans would like to see Florida's run end right now. A win against Texas A&M could vault them ahead of Pitt. Go Aggies!
UConn (RPI: 58 Chances: 62.1%)
vs Cincinnati (RPI: 40 Chances: 93.4%)
2:00, ESPN2
- It feels like this is a must-win for UConn, and I think Cincinnati's situation is not as safe as their percentage indicates. UConn would clearly be behind Pitt with a loss, so Go Bearcats!
George Washington (RPI: 62 Chances: 17.8%)
vs St. Joseph's (RPI: 32 Chances: 75.6%)
2:30, NBCSN
- St. Joe's can probably withstand a loss and still be in. GW cannot. Go Red Hawks!
Bowling Green
vs Akron (RPI: 29 Chances: 81.6%)
6:30, ESPN3
- With an RPI of 29, Akron might make the field as an at-large if they don't win the MAC. We want them to keep the MAC as a one-bid league by winning. Go Zips!
UMass
vs VCU (RPI: 42 Chances: 80.1%)
6:30, NBCSN
- VCU looks like a team that is in.... but a bad loss to UMass could make them nervous on Sunday. Go Minutemen!
Ohio State (RPI: 73 Chances: 13.3%)
vs Michigan State
6:30, BTN
- This is the kind of game that could vault Ohio State from NIT to safely in. We DO NOT want the Buckeyes to win this game. Go Fightin' Izzos!
Tulane
vs Houston (RPI: 74 Chances: 34.8%)
7:00, ESPNU
- The Cougars need a deep run to overcome their currently-poor RPI. Go Green Wave!
Memphis
vs Tulsa (RPI: 47 Chances: 67.5%)
9:00, ESPNU
- A Tulsa loss clearly puts them behind Pitt. Go Tigers!
Nevada
vs San Diego State (RPI: 39 Chances: 97.1%)
9:00, no TV
- The Aztecs are in, they aren't a bubble team. But if they lose, they become a bid-stealer. We want SDSU to win the Mountain West. Go Aztecs!
Davidson
vs St. Bonaventure (RPI: 25 Chances: 96.0%)
9:00, NBCSN
- The Bonnies are likely in, but on many projections they are behind Pitt and even playing in Dayton. If they lose, it increases Pitt's chances of avoiding Dayton... with the added bonus that a Davidson win helps Pitt's profile. Go Wildcats!
Georgia
vs South Carolina (RPI: 53 Chances: 43.6%)
9:00, SECN
- South Carolina sits right around Pitt on the bubble. A loss here helps Pitt immensely. Go Dawgs!
First, let's look at our Panthers. Their chances only dropped from 53.1% to 49.7%, which is in line with what most people are thinking - the loss to UNC didn't really hurt anything. Personally I think the percentages are 20-30% higher than that.
But let's get to it....
Thursday's Losers
Pitt
RPI is 54. It would be good for Pitt if bubble teams below them lose and if SDSU and Akron both win their leagues, especially SDSU.
USC
The Trojans missed an opportunity against Utah to emphatically punch their ticket. Now they sit and hope the committee is impressed with the Pac12's gaming of the RPI. Chances sit at 67.9%.
Butler
I think their situation is a little more precarious than their 55.7% chances indicate. I think they're behind Pitt. Tough blowout loss to Providence yesterday.
Vanderbilt
The Commodores came 1/10 of a second and a long video review from going to overtime....but their loss to 15-18 Tennessee was a crusher. The worst loss by a bubble team yesterday and it dropped their chances all the way down to 20.7% from 49.8%. They got reverse-Goheened. By former Pitt target Detrick Mostella, mostly.
Thursday's Winners
Providence
The Friars punched their ticket with a win over Butler. A lock at 96.9% now.
Florida
The Gators got a necessary win. Probably need at least one more, maybe two. Chances are at 38.1%.
Michigan
The Wolverines stayed alive with an OT win against Northwestern. Still have lots of work to do at 29.8%.
Ohio State
Similar to their rival Michigan, they got a win over a bad team to keep their slim hopes alive. But MSU awaits as their chances are at 13.3%.
George Washington
GW still needs two or three more wins after yesterday's win. Chances are at 17.8%.
Friday's Bubble Games
Michigan (RPI: 61 Chances: 29.8%)
vs Indiana
Noon, ESPN
- Michigan is the kind of team that Pitt does NOT want to see go on a run. Need to end it now. Go Hoosiers!
USF
vs Temple (RPI: 59 Chances: 88.8%)
Noon, ESPN2
- It feels like Temple is in a more precarious situation than the percentages indicate. A loss to a horrible USF team could plummet their chances significantly. Go Bulls!
Florida (RPI: 51 Chances: 38.1%)
vs Texas A&M
1:00, SECN
- Similar to Michigan, Pitt fans would like to see Florida's run end right now. A win against Texas A&M could vault them ahead of Pitt. Go Aggies!
UConn (RPI: 58 Chances: 62.1%)
vs Cincinnati (RPI: 40 Chances: 93.4%)
2:00, ESPN2
- It feels like this is a must-win for UConn, and I think Cincinnati's situation is not as safe as their percentage indicates. UConn would clearly be behind Pitt with a loss, so Go Bearcats!
George Washington (RPI: 62 Chances: 17.8%)
vs St. Joseph's (RPI: 32 Chances: 75.6%)
2:30, NBCSN
- St. Joe's can probably withstand a loss and still be in. GW cannot. Go Red Hawks!
Bowling Green
vs Akron (RPI: 29 Chances: 81.6%)
6:30, ESPN3
- With an RPI of 29, Akron might make the field as an at-large if they don't win the MAC. We want them to keep the MAC as a one-bid league by winning. Go Zips!
UMass
vs VCU (RPI: 42 Chances: 80.1%)
6:30, NBCSN
- VCU looks like a team that is in.... but a bad loss to UMass could make them nervous on Sunday. Go Minutemen!
Ohio State (RPI: 73 Chances: 13.3%)
vs Michigan State
6:30, BTN
- This is the kind of game that could vault Ohio State from NIT to safely in. We DO NOT want the Buckeyes to win this game. Go Fightin' Izzos!
Tulane
vs Houston (RPI: 74 Chances: 34.8%)
7:00, ESPNU
- The Cougars need a deep run to overcome their currently-poor RPI. Go Green Wave!
Memphis
vs Tulsa (RPI: 47 Chances: 67.5%)
9:00, ESPNU
- A Tulsa loss clearly puts them behind Pitt. Go Tigers!
Nevada
vs San Diego State (RPI: 39 Chances: 97.1%)
9:00, no TV
- The Aztecs are in, they aren't a bubble team. But if they lose, they become a bid-stealer. We want SDSU to win the Mountain West. Go Aztecs!
Davidson
vs St. Bonaventure (RPI: 25 Chances: 96.0%)
9:00, NBCSN
- The Bonnies are likely in, but on many projections they are behind Pitt and even playing in Dayton. If they lose, it increases Pitt's chances of avoiding Dayton... with the added bonus that a Davidson win helps Pitt's profile. Go Wildcats!
Georgia
vs South Carolina (RPI: 53 Chances: 43.6%)
9:00, SECN
- South Carolina sits right around Pitt on the bubble. A loss here helps Pitt immensely. Go Dawgs!