I know we feel safe but

[Sean Miller Fan]

We are almost definitely one of the last 2 in. And you can make a very good case for OK St, Nevada, and Vandy to get in over us. I think we'll get in and I think we should get in over those teams but wouldn't be surprised if they took them over us. OK St and Nevada's NET and computer numbers are way better. Vandy beat us and has some really nice wins.

In the BM update, we are in the least number of brackets (68) of any team in the field. OK St (31), Nevada (28), and Vandy (11) arent as far behind as I think many of you think. This isnt a slam dunk lock that we're in. Again, I do think we get in but its very very close. The reality is the Duke blowout cost us about 4 spots due to the NET drop. We all agree that's stupid but it is what it is. Had we lost by 1 to Mich, WVU, and Duke, our NET would be 35 right now and we'd be an 8/9 seed. But this is what we have to deal with. I think all coaches need to realize this and coach differently. When you are down 25, its vitally important to coach your ass off to only lose by 10-15 instead of 30-35. No walk-ons, press, foul to cut the lead late. It sucks but that's just reality now. When teams keep fouling down 20, they'll change it. Scoring margins matter about the same as the W/L result.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Vanderbilt has like a 57-point loss this season. That is cartoonish.

 

[PittPoker]

We are almost definitely one of the last 2 in. And you can make a very good case for OK St, Nevada, and Vandy to get in over us. I think we'll get in and I think we should get in over those teams but wouldn't be surprised if they took them over us. OK St and Nevada's NET and computer numbers are way better. Vandy beat us and has some really nice wins.

In the BM update, we are in the least number of brackets (68) of any team in the field. OK St (31), Nevada (28), and Vandy (11) arent as far behind as I think many of you think. This isnt a slam dunk lock that we're in. Again, I do think we get in but its very very close. The reality is the Duke blowout cost us about 4 spots due to the NET drop. We all agree that's stupid but it is what it is. Had we lost by 1 to Mich, WVU, and Duke, our NET would be 35 right now and we'd be an 8/9 seed. But this is what we have to deal with. I think all coaches need to realize this and coach differently. When you are down 25, its vitally important to coach your ass off to only lose by 10-15 instead of 30-35. No walk-ons, press, foul to cut the lead late. It sucks but that's just reality now. When teams keep fouling down 20, they'll change it. Scoring margins matter about the same as the W/L result.

Pitt should be lucky Scheyer called off the dogs or we would have lost by 45-50. Duke was up 35+ points with still lots of time left in the second half. Again just an inexcusable showing considering what was on the line. And sure we can blame the players on that but we also need to blame Capel and his staff. He obv didn't prepare the team or motivate the team to even bother to show up(mentally). Maybe he thought it's a veteran team so he doesn't need to do much but watching that game brought back so many terrible memories of Stallings 2.0.

I mean think about it. It's been 3 straight halves between GT and Duke that Pitt came out really flat and allowed both teams to go on double digit runs. We were up by 13 against GT and within the first few minutes of the second half it was nearly tied. Duke started the game on a 12-0 run I believe and Pitt was down 16 at the half. So what does Pitt do? Do they come out firing and playing with desperation and intensity to try and make a game of it? Uh no, they give up ANOTHER 12-0 run to Duke to start the second half!! Yeah I'm sorry but some of that is definitely on the coaching. I think the "bad" Capel has started rearing its ugly head again and at the worst time.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt should be lucky Scheyer called off the dogs or we would have lost by 45-50. Duke was up 35+ points with still lots of time left in the second half. Again just an inexcusable showing considering what was on the line. And sure we can blame the players on that but we also need to blame Capel and his staff. He obv didn't prepare the team or motivate the team to even bother to show up(mentally). Maybe he thought it's a veteran team so he doesn't need to do much but watching that game brought back so many terrible memories of Stallings 2.0.

I dont blame Capel that much. This team cannot defend and its because they dont have quick/athletic players. The plan was to sag in the lane so we can rebound but they started shooting the lights out. Having Filipowski hang out on the 3 point line is something you dont mind.

 

[PittPoker]

I dont blame Capel that much. This team cannot defend and its because they dont have quick/athletic players. The plan was to sag in the lane so we can rebound but they started shooting the lights out. Having Filipowski hang out on the 3 point line is something you dont mind.

Really? Having him hang out there wide open you don't mind? Yeah sure. And when 3 straight halves of basketball you allow teams to go on big opening runs then I'm sorry but coaching is a factor.

 

[NCanton Panther]

We are almost definitely one of the last 2 in. And you can make a very good case for OK St, Nevada, and Vandy to get in over us. I think we'll get in and I think we should get in over those teams but wouldn't be surprised if they took them over us. OK St and Nevada's NET and computer numbers are way better. Vandy beat us and has some really nice wins.

In the BM update, we are in the least number of brackets (68) of any team in the field. OK St (31), Nevada (28), and Vandy (11) arent as far behind as I think many of you think. This isnt a slam dunk lock that we're in. Again, I do think we get in but its very very close. The reality is the Duke blowout cost us about 4 spots due to the NET drop. We all agree that's stupid but it is what it is. Had we lost by 1 to Mich, WVU, and Duke, our NET would be 35 right now and we'd be an 8/9 seed. But this is what we have to deal with. I think all coaches need to realize this and coach differently. When you are down 25, its vitally important to coach your ass off to only lose by 10-15 instead of 30-35. No walk-ons, press, foul to cut the lead late. It sucks but that's just reality now. When teams keep fouling down 20, they'll change it. Scoring margins matter about the same as the W/L result.

Agree with most of what you’re saying w/r to our chances and who we’re competing against.

Many on here saying we’re 95-99% certain in the tourney. Can’t say I agree.

Instead, I’d go with how you stated it…. I think we’re in but wouldn’t be surprised if we’re not. Really can’t refine it much more than that.

 

[docpanther26]

Duke is peaking at the right time of year, and they are all healthy. Dangerous situation for ANY team in their way.

 

[PittPoker]

Duke is peaking at the right time of year, and they are all healthy. Dangerous situation for ANY team in their way.

Duke is good but Pitt laid an egg by allowing awful early runs at the start of each half. Against GT in the second half GT started with an 18-6 run. And this is after Pitt was up 13. Duke started each half going on 12-0 runs I believe.

You're basically surrendering the game if you are giving up those kinds of runs half after half.

 

[docpanther26]

Duke is good but Pitt laid an egg by allowing awful early runs at the start of each half. Against GT in the second half GT started with an 18-6 run. And this is after Pitt was up 13. Duke started each half going on 12-0 runs I believe.

Oh no doubt, I’m certainly not discounting Pitt’s poor effort, however Duke just is playing extreme well at the right time of year.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

If we don’t make it, good life’s lesson. Start well and finish well. Pitt did neither.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Agree with most of what you’re saying w/r to our chances and who we’re competing against.

Many on here saying we’re 95-99% certain in the tourney. Can’t say I agree.

Instead, I’d go with how you stated it…. I think we’re in but wouldn’t be surprised if we’re not. Really can’t refine it much more than that.

I'd say 75% chance.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Really? Having him hang out there wide open you don't mind? Yeah sure. And when 3 straight halves of basketball you allow teams to go on big opening runs then I'm sorry but coaching is a factor.

They wanted to contest but were ok with him shooting 3s instead of living in the paint.

 

[thebadby2]

Really? Having him hang out there wide open you don't mind? Yeah sure. And when 3 straight halves of basketball you allow teams to go on big opening runs then I'm sorry but coaching is a factor.

We don’t have anyone who can guard a Filipowski in the post and we certainly don’t have anyone who can guard him at the 3 point arc. Whichever poison Capel chose, the result wasn’t going to change. I don’t think what happened in that game was due to any coaching malpractice on Cape’s part.

Duke has more talent on this year’s roster alone than the Pitt program has had in the past 30 years combined. And they are young-their best players are freshmen. Can’t say after one year whether Scheyer knows what he’s doing, but that team appears to be coming together at the right time, and at least half of those freshmen won’t be on that roster next year. They’ll be cashing NBA paychecks.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Really? Having him hang out there wide open you don't mind? Yeah sure. And when 3 straight halves of basketball you allow teams to go on big opening runs then I'm sorry but coaching is a factor.

Well what are the alternatives? Have him bang inside, in which case his shooting percentage of making a basket against us is even greater. Or we could put our 5 defender way out on him to take away the three, in which he case he probably beats us off the dribble to get a high percentage basket, plus it keeps our 5 away from the glass in which case we won't get the rebound.

I'd take my chances with him shooting threes -- ideally he wouldn't be wide open, but him shooting from deep would be my preference and I would try and do something to bait him into firing from deep.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Well what are the alternatives? Have him bang inside, in which case his shooting percentage of making a basket against us is even greater. Or we could put our 5 defender way out on him to take away the three, in which he case he probably beats us off the dribble to get a high percentage basket, plus it keeps our 5 away from the glass in which case we won't get the rebound.

I'd take my chances with him shooting threes -- ideally he wouldn't be wide open, but him shooting from deep would be my preference and I would try and do something to bait him into firing from deep.

I dont even mind the gameplan. Duke is honestly a 2 seed right now, talent wise. Top 5-10 team. Capel knew it would take a near perfect game. He chose to bait a team who doesn't shoot 3s well to shoot 3s. They made them. Game over.

 

[PittPoker]

We don’t have anyone who can guard a Filipowski in the post and we certainly don’t have anyone who can guard him at the 3 point arc. Whichever poison Capel chose, the result wasn’t going to change. I don’t think what happened in that game was due to any coaching malpractice on Cape’s part.

Duke has more talent on this year’s roster alone than the Pitt program has had in the past 30 years combined. And they are young-their best players are freshmen. Can’t say after one year whether Scheyer knows what he’s doing, but that team appears to be coming together at the right time, and at least half of those freshmen won’t be on that roster next year. They’ll be cashing NBA paychecks.

3 consecutive big runs by the opponents to start halves is on coaching. Finishing 3-4 in our past 7 games including losing to an awful ND team(which only won 1 game since Jan 28th and it was against Pitt) is on coaching. I'm taking it altogether.

Pitt was ranked finally in the top 25 recently and many pundits thought Pitt was a top 20 team. Sure Duke is good. Are they 45 points better than Pitt good? Scheyer' team could have won by that much if they didn't let up. Heck they were up by 35 with lots of time left to go in the game.

So I get it that some don’t want to blame coaching but this man has a history of team collapses down the stretch and it just feels to me that this is another one. Although it started much later than the rest.

 

[PittPanther44]

We don’t have anyone who can guard a Filipowski in the post and we certainly don’t have anyone who can guard him at the 3 point arc. Whichever poison Capel chose, the result wasn’t going to change. I don’t think what happened in that game was due to any coaching malpractice on Cape’s part.

Duke has more talent on this year’s roster alone than the Pitt program has had in the past 30 years combined. And they are young-their best players are freshmen. Can’t say after one year whether Scheyer knows what he’s doing, but that team appears to be coming together at the right time, and at least half of those freshmen won’t be on that roster next year. They’ll be cashing NBA paychecks.

We had the 3rd best record out of all programs for over a ten year span.

But this years 4th place ACC Duke team is better than putting together the best players from that era, usually playing in an elite conference?

Just have to lol at that, but I will say this. They are peaking at the right time and playing at a very high level. They have players that are getting better. They would have waxed a lot of teams other than us that day.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I would not be surprised to see Duke in the final Four or even win it all, The only reason Virginia gave them any trouble last night was because Virginia played off-the-charts agressive "junk-yard dog" defense with an incredible level of energy and grit. Had they not done so and played with a more normal energy level (even for them), IMHO they would have lost to Duke by 20 or more.

 

[Blair_45]

We are almost definitely one of the last 2 in. And you can make a very good case for OK St, Nevada, and Vandy to get in over us. I think we'll get in and I think we should get in over those teams but wouldn't be surprised if they took them over us. OK St and Nevada's NET and computer numbers are way better. Vandy beat us and has some really nice wins.

In the BM update, we are in the least number of brackets (68) of any team in the field. OK St (31), Nevada (28), and Vandy (11) arent as far behind as I think many of you think. This isnt a slam dunk lock that we're in. Again, I do think we get in but its very very close. The reality is the Duke blowout cost us about 4 spots due to the NET drop. We all agree that's stupid but it is what it is. Had we lost by 1 to Mich, WVU, and Duke, our NET would be 35 right now and we'd be an 8/9 seed. But this is what we have to deal with. I think all coaches need to realize this and coach differently. When you are down 25, its vitally important to coach your ass off to only lose by 10-15 instead of 30-35. No walk-ons, press, foul to cut the lead late. It sucks but that's just reality now. When teams keep fouling down 20, they'll change it. Scoring margins matter about the same as the W/L result.

I don’t think OK St or Nevada should be in over Pitt. Regardless of the NET their entire body of work is just not as good as Pitt. Pitt had a ball in the air last weekend at Miami with a chance to win the ACC Regular season Championship. They won 15 games in a power 5 conference and they have 3 solid Quad 1 road wins. One of those is over NC State another bubble team in Pitt’s conference that they finished ahead of in the ACC and beat head to head on the road. That’s gotta count for something and just can’t be overlooked. If you’re not gonna count head to head wins when determining potential bubble teams don’t play the games then it’s that simple. I also find it hard to believe that the ACC is not gonna get 4 or 5 teams in. I think Pitt is in over NC State at this point and I still think Pitt gets in as an 11 seed and avoids Dayton.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

We don’t have anyone who can guard a Filipowski in the post and we certainly don’t have anyone who can guard him at the 3 point arc. Whichever poison Capel chose, the result wasn’t going to change. I don’t think what happened in that game was due to any coaching malpractice on Cape’s part.

Duke has more talent on this year’s roster alone than the Pitt program has had in the past 30 years combined. And they are young-their best players are freshmen. Can’t say after one year whether Scheyer knows what he’s doing, but that team appears to be coming together at the right time, and at least half of those freshmen won’t be on that roster next year. They’ll be cashing NBA paychecks.

Beyond just the "talent" thing, Duke presents the worst possible physical matchup for Pitt. They are taller and quicker at pretty much every position. While hoping for the best, I had suspected it could be a possible blowout loss. I just didn't expect it to be of the magnitude it was. I suspected maybe something more like 85-65.

 

[SteelBowl70]

I

We are almost definitely one of the last 2 in. And you can make a very good case for OK St, Nevada, and Vandy to get in over us.

In the BM update, we are in the least number of brackets (68) of any team in the field.

Of 37 brackets updated today, Pitt is in 25 and OK state 11. I’m starting to think OK State gets in and the last 2 bids are between NC State and Rutgers and Pitt. Why NC State gets so much love is beyond me.

 

[NCanton Panther]

I'd say 75% chance.

That’s what I pegged it at earlier in another thread/post

 

[gary2]

I don’t think OK St or Nevada should be in over Pitt. Regardless of the NET their entire body of work is just not as good as Pitt. Pitt had a ball in the air last weekend at Miami with a chance to win the ACC Regular season Championship. They won 15 games in a power 5 conference and they have 3 solid Quad 1 road wins. One of those is over NC State another bubble team in Pitt’s conference that they finished ahead of in the ACC and beat head to head on the road. That’s gotta count for something and just can’t be overlooked. If you’re not gonna count head to head wins when determining potential bubble teams don’t play the games then it’s that simple. I also find it hard to believe that the ACC is not gonna get 4 or 5 teams in. I think Pitt is in over NC State at this point and I still think Pitt gets in as an 11 seed and avoids Dayton.

Pitt is wearing down. I expect another stinker in our last game, but...

We had a helluva a year. A year that deserves rewarded.

we "deserve" more than a play in game.

F the Big Ten (and SEC and BiG East) we should be a 10 seed based on comparative overall and particularly league records.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Still tough for me to reconcile how we're on the bubble with this overall/conference record as a power conference team. Were SEC teams with these records missing the tournament back in the day? I guess they would have been. Just not something I'm used to with Pitt being in some of the better basketball conferences for most of the past few decades.

How many times this year did we say a win would be nice but a loss wouldn't hurt us and then win the game? At UNC, Miami, Virginia... in retrospect, we needed every one of those.

Maybe I'm just dismissing the beginning (1-3) and then end (1-3) of the season too much, because we played so well in between.

 

[bayardstreet]

Duke will make a long run in the tournament. Two seven footers that are completely different players will create huge matchup problems.

 

[Blair_45]

I

Of 37 brackets updated today, Pitt is in 25 and OK state 11. I’m starting to think OK State gets in and the last 2 bids are between NC State and Rutgers and Pitt. Why NC State gets so much love is beyond me.

Why would you think OK St is in if they are only in 11 updated brackets out of 37 and Pitt is in 25??

 

[UPitt '89]

Why would you think OK St is in if they are only in 11 updated brackets out of 37 and Pitt is in 25??

Because it is in Pitt fans' DNA to be glass half-empty curmudgeons.

 

[h2p_5150]

Getting blown out 3 times is bad. I don't understand why people dismiss that. It reflects poorly on your team. Pitt played 35 games this year. 6 of them were against teams that don't belong on a court with a P5 program. That leaves 29 real games. Getting blown out 3 times in 29 games is bad!

 

[thebadby2]

We had the 3rd best record out of all programs for over a ten year span.

But this years 4th place ACC Duke team is better than putting together the best players from that era, usually playing in an elite conference?

Just have to lol at that, but I will say this. They are peaking at the right time and playing at a very high level. They have players that are getting better. They would have waxed a lot of teams other than us that day.

Well let’s put it this way-the subject is talent, not game results-how many NBA players has Pitt produced in the last 30 years? And I’m not including the G league kick around guys. I’m talking about guys who are drafted to immediate roster spots. I think we’ve had 2 or 3. On this year’s team, exactly none. This Duke team alone has a handful of those guys. At least 3 in the 2023 draft alone. More from this roster in 2024. Likely a lottery pick or two among them all.

Their best guys are all freshmen and they have a brand new coach following arguably the best coach in the history of college basketball who was there for 42 years. That’s why they struggled at times this year. Not because they don’t have elite, top level talent.

 

[UPitt '89]

Getting blown out 3 times is bad. I don't understand why people dismiss that. It reflects poorly on your team. Pitt played 35 games this year. 6 of them were against teams that don't belong on a court with a P5 program. That leaves 29 real games. Getting blown out 3 times in 29 games is bad!

NC State was blown out three times by the same team, Clemson.

 

[thebadby2]

Still tough for me to reconcile how we're on the bubble with this overall/conference record as a power conference team. Were SEC teams with these records missing the tournament back in the day? I guess they would have been. Just not something I'm used to with Pitt being in some of the better basketball conferences for most of the past few decades.

How many times this year did we say a win would be nice but a loss wouldn't hurt us and then win the game? At UNC, Miami, Virginia... in retrospect, we needed every one of those.

Maybe I'm just dismissing the beginning (1-3) and then end (1-3) of the season too much, because we played so well in between.

I tend to agree but I guess our friend Ken Pom doesn’t. Not telling anyone what they don’t already know but the reason we’re in this predicament is he has the ACC as the 7th best conference right now, so the conference wins are devalued. We can debate whether that’s right or wrong but it’s definitely the case. And realistically of the top few ACC teams only Duke has the ingredients needed for March success. UVA can do some damage, they have an elite coach but they aren’t very big or talented, or very good, and they don’t match up well with many of the better teams in the field.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Getting blown out 3 times is bad. I don't understand why people dismiss that. It reflects poorly on your team. Pitt played 35 games this year. 6 of them were against teams that don't belong on a court with a P5 program. That leaves 29 real games. Getting blown out 3 times in 29 games is bad!

But didn't we get through all 20 regular season conference games without losing by more than single digits? I wonder if there are even ten power conference teams that can boast that. Certainly wouldn't be 20.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Why would you think OK St is in if they are only in 11 updated brackets out of 37 and Pitt is in 25??

Because they are gaining momentum and Pitt has been losing it and if it comes down to a referendum in the committee just between those 2 teams, metrics could carry the day based on how you weight them.
OSU PItt
18-15 22-11
Quad breakdown
6-12 4-4
4-2 3-5
3-1 5-1
5-0 10-1
SOS 8 vs 91
Non-conf SOS 192 vs 147

Road record 4-7 7-6
Road quad splits
3-7 3-3
0-0 1-2
0-0 2-1
1-0 1-0

It’s really Rutgers or NC State who should be under the microscope.

 

[gary2]

Mississippi State and Rutgers the reason most have us in Dayton?

 

[wallanderm]

How does the Big Ten project to get 9 teams -- including Rutgers -- compared to only 5 from the ACC?

 

[gary2]

How does the Big Ten project to get 9 teams -- including Rutgers -- compared to only 5 from the ACC?

The ACC is pegged the 7th best league. Ridiculous!

 

[SteelBowl70]

The ACC is pegged the 7th best league. Ridiculous!

Conference NET Ranking - 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Men's College Basketball Conference NET - a ranking of conference based on the average NET Ranking of the teams in the conference.

www.warrennolan.com

ACC is the worst kind of conference this year to make the tourney. The bottom end has talent but is very inconsistent with many bad losses. However UL beat Clemson, ND beat Pitt (and MSU by 18) and had many chances to beat UVA and Duke and others, FSU won at Miami and Pitt, BC beat UVA by 15. So you get little credit for for beating these teams and get penalized for losing. While every game OK State played in conference was Q1/Q2. Similar for Big 10.

Pitt was 8-4 against top half of the league and 7-3 against the the bottom.

 

[gary2]

Conference NET Ranking - 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Men's College Basketball Conference NET - a ranking of conference based on the average NET Ranking of the teams in the conference.

www.warrennolan.com

ACC is the worst kind of conference this year to make the tourney. The bottom end has talent but is very inconsistent with many bad losses. However UL beat Clemson, ND beat Pitt (and MSU by 18) and had many chances to beat UVA and Duke and others, FSU won at Miami and Pitt, BC beat UVA by 15. So you get little credit for for beating these teams and get penalized for losing. While every game OK State played in conference was Q1/Q2. Similar for Big 10.

Pitt was 8-4 against top half of the league and 7-3 against the the bottom.

No conference is comprised of all Q1 and Q2 teams. To think one is, is folly.

Penn State is good. I watched much of the Big 10 tournament. There were a lot of mediocre teams beating each other.

 

[Pitt79]

I'll say it again, if Pitt doesn't make this NCAAT, it's UNPRECEDENTED, a 22-11 overall record and a 15-7 record vs. a Power Conference, the ACC. find an example of a team with 22 wins, 15 in a P5, and didn't make it? Find one example?

 

[UPitt '89]

I'll say it again, if Pitt doesn't make this NCAAT, it's UNPRECEDENTED, a 22-11 overall record and a 15-7 record vs. a Power Conference, the ACC. find an example of a team with 22 wins, 15 in a P5, and didn't make it? Find one example?

Pitt had 16 P6 wins.... 29 point win at Northwestern.