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Jaland Lowe 11th in 2025 NBA Draft?
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
That has Bub going 8th and Blake late second round this year.
Hard to believe we missed the tournament with 2 lotto picks and another second rounder
Hard to believe we missed the tournament with 2 lotto picks and another second rounder
We shouldn't have. The Mountain West didnt need 6 teams.
And this is part of the reason you are going to see the tournament expanded. What I have read suggests its almost definitely going to happen, but its going to be less than 80 teams. 72 or 76 probably. I'd prefer just 72. But the entire landscape has changed. All the talent redistributes itself every year so there's so much parity and really, no bad teams unless your coach is Kenny Payne, Huggy goes on a bender, or Mizzou taps out early.
If there was ever any doubt, NC State's run has put that to bed. They wouldn't have been close to the tournament at 21-15, but should they have been? Wake has a ton of talent and wasnt close. Even a team like Ohio State was playing great late. There's almost no talent difference between your 2 and 3 seeds and these teams who didnt even come close to making it. That's college basketball now.
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It’s actually insane to think about.
But of course, Blake won’t actually get drafted, Bub won’t be a lottery because he couldn’t do something like what Clingan is doing to improve his stock and obviously we have no idea where Lowe will go. There’s not many small guards in the NBA or small guards going lottery but back end of 1st round is probably his ceiling.
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I love Lowe as a college player but he won’t be a lottery level pick.
Carrington is the only sure fire draft pick on the team and the only way he’s surefire to go 1st round is if he
A) goes this year and can sell he’s not done growing into body, athleticism as why he’s so poor ATR, in a weak draft etc
B) improves a ton - which just doesn’t typically happen in college.
Typically the more they see, the less they like
Really, you said the mountain west didn't need six teams. For real. I bet you only posted the same crap 1,000 times so far. If you reach 10,000 by 1 May the committee will pick all their schools next year. Keep up your hideously redundant and poor work.
He reminds me of a prototypical 4-year college player who was a really good college career and then plays overseas. Like, is he better than RJ Davis? A little bigger, I know, so many he does draw some pro interest. But lottery pick? I guess we'll see.
Which is why he needs to go now. If he doesn't improve much, he wont get drafted or get drafted late like Davis. The selling point for Carrington is the "unknown factor." He is younger than a lot of HS seniors so he can be drafted on potential.
I believe he was referring to Lowe.
I dont think Lowe will be a lottery pick but I can see him going in the 2nd Round this year or 1st next year.
Proving again and again SMF doesn't know basketball
Both Bub and Jaland would benefit by staying in college ( they’re getting paid nice money ) while they both develop physically and they need to improve their 3 Pt shooting . With the NIL there’s no need to be in a hurry to go to the NBA unless you hate the college experience. My bet is they’re both enjoying the benefits of being a star athlete .
Referring to Lowe, but I agree with you about Carrington. His shot form is kind of funky to me (doesn't matter if they go in, but only 32.2% from three and you'd almost never see him shooting from anywhere but the top of the key), and he just doesn't take the ball to the rim that much. I think if he came back and those issues remained he might play himself out of being a high draft pick. His defense does seem on point, but I'm just a casual observer on that and don't have any stats to back it up.
I'd love for him to come back but I think there's too much downside risk to coming back. I dont think he has that raw athleticism to play himself into like a Top 5 pick so if he can go 15 or 20 this year, I'd do it but I hope he doesnt as a selfish fan.
Tend to agree. This isn't a great example, because he'll still go top 20, but that tackle from Penn State was almost definitely a top 5 or 10 pick if he came out for the 2023 draft at 20. But he went back to school and now he has seemed to plummet a bit in the mocks (I mean, not THAT much). But you can definitely sell a little more when you're younger. There was that 19-year-old defensive lineman from Louisville who went 10th overall. He never amounted to a whole lot in the NFL.
Lowe isn’t first round
He has a better chance of playing himself out of the 1st round than playing himself into the lottery. Especially with a much stronger draft next season.
I know you and bbinsider agree on this, but I don't get it. If there is too much risk to Bub to come back, isn't there too much risk to an NBA team to take him now? Are NBA GMs easily fooled? Do they draft guys on a hunch? If I'm a GM and I see a guy trying to come out early because he is afraid his stock is going to drop, I'd tell the player to stay in school and prove himself.
Could be wrong, because I don't follow the NBA, but it seems like most picks after like 15ish or so in the NBA are just shots in the dark anyway.
Yes but unlike nfl, you typically get 2 picks…Not a lot of room for error. And really need to be selective with team needs, willingness to wait for development, niche role, etc.
It feels like some teams don't even care about the draft and are content with trading all their picks away and building through free agency. It's definitely the easiest sport to do that in.
Not even close, if he doesnt improve his shooting, get more defensive statistics(steals/blocks), and doesnt improve driving and finishing, then he will fall. He shot 40% from 3 over his last so many games(forget how many think its like 7) his lack of strength And youth give nba teams a reason to over look it currently, but if he shows the same inconsistencies shooting and doesnt improve his driving then it wont be overlooked. He is currently a player who can make tough shots and is an elite passer. His shot creation/choice, defense and consistency are questions.
If u want an example to compare him to, its judah mintz. He was considered a fringe first last year but went back to school because of the weak upcoming draft and he wanted to show improved shooting. It didnt happen and in a much weaker draft he is now more likely a mid-late 2nd rder and isnt going pro for another
This x 1000. Right now, NBA coaches, scouts, GMs assume that his lack of ATR % and 3 point game etc is because of weak college coaching and strength and conditioning program (Not specific to Capel, they think this about all college staffs). The best bet is to get in their programs which they think are superior ASAP. They want to have Bub hit his second contract by the time he's 23. No limit on hours. No limit on activity. Superior nutrition. etc. The more they see, the less they like. Most likely, he comes back and shows slight improvement and either goes in the same place but likely falls because of the better draft.
We dont agree on much but after he was wrong about Bub being not being a 1st Rounder in November (with me being right on that of course), he has since changed his tune. We have the same thoughts now regarding his NBA prospects.
You ask a good question though. I will answer this as if I'm an NBA GM picking in the 20s because while I think he can go higher than that, Bub becomes more of a risk in that 12-18 range.
If you are picking in the 20s, you already have an established team and arent looking towards the draft to get you that starter you need or crucial bench piece. Drafts typically arent deep enough for that, especially not this one. There are high lottery guys who never develop into that. With Bub, I see a guy with a high floor meaning he's at worst, a 9th-10th man right now. He has size, handle, and an elitr mid-range game that you suspect will translate into elite 3 point shooting as he gets stronger. You know he is physically ready to be put out on the floor. So, at worst, you are getting a depth piece.
His ceiling is probably above average NBA starter. He doesn't have an All-star ceiling or right outside that All-star level because he isnt that athletic. But if I'm a GM, I'm thinking like there is a 50% chance this guy is going to be a "plus" NBA starter and a 50% chance he is going to be a 9th or 10th man. Picking in the 20s, there is enough of the "unknown" that its a great value pick.
If he comes back to Pitt and doesn't improve enough, especially getting into the lane and finishing, his stock drops. Right now, its assumed that given his HS senior age (Judah Mintz who was brough up as a comp turns 21 11 days before Bub turns 19), he will make great improvements. But what if he doesn't? So there's risk to come back for Bub?
All this said, lets say Bub comes back and has a similar season to this one, he's STILL an NBA talent. So he isnt risking an NBA career but maybe he goes in the 2nd Round. So it could cost him millions and the upside to come back isnt great. Lets say he averages 19 and shows the ability to get to the cup, he still isnt that athletic, so he's still looking at a 10-13 type pick then. Not much reward to come back.
His age though is one reason he may opt to come back. He'd be one of the youngest NBA players since they stopped allowing HS kids and may not be ready to stop being a kid. May not be emotionally ready to go be an adult and hang out with 32 year old men and do basketball as a job. He may feel the NBA is going to be there next year so he wants to enjoy one more year of being a kid while making $500K-$1 million as a Pitt student. That's a nice chunk of change for an extra year of being a kid.
While I was watching tourney games with my son last week he asked me who the best player in college was his year. I didn’t know so I started looking up a number of mock drafts to see which college player(s) were projected to go the highest.
I ended up looking at 5 different mock draft sites. When doing so I also noted w/r to Bub, one site had him going 8th. The other 4 all had him as the last 1-4 picks in the 1st round. They all pretty much listed the same things like getting to and ATR as being his limitations as well as 3-pt shooting. Some figured he could benefit from another year in college to improve on those.
I ended up looking at 5 different mock draft sites. When doing so I also noted w/r to Bub, one site had him going 8th. The other 4 all had him as the last 1-4 picks in the 1st round. They all pretty much listed the same things like getting to and ATR as being his limitations as well as 3-pt shooting. Some figured he could benefit from another year in college to improve on those.
Bub is likely a back end of round 1 guy. He can improve that if he comes back and works hard, but will he move high enough to make up for an NBA contract year???
He's going to have to weigh what he wants and what's best for him. Everyone is different.
He's going to have to weigh what he wants and what's best for him. Everyone is different.
I think it's the right decision for him. And I also think Pitt can still be good this coming season.
That's most likely here. Just saying, however, that in this day and age, if he were staying, they'd probably also do a press conference.
They can’t do anything with Meleek Thomas unless he signs.
Seems like it may be an alliance 412 thing. That’s my new guess
Not "hunch", the word you are looking for is "potential". And the longer you play in college the more you are a known commodity and the less "potential" there is in your game.
NBA teams think that they are better at developing NBA players than college programs are. Imagine that. Nuts, isn't it?
And he. or anyone else for that matter, can't sign for around two weeks, iirc.
Just like employers think they’re better than colleges. Weird!!!
How do you know this is how NBA scouts would think? I'm genuinely curious.
I am waiting for a player or program to announce they need like $1 million or whatever and ask the fans to pay up. Pitt is too classy for that but eventually you figure someone is going to do that. "I'm going to the NBA unless you can raise $1 million."
