Just for fun --

[DC_Area_Panther]

After the first couple of games played by most teams, I looked at changes to ESPN's Pitt favored vs not favored game by game. In another approach, used current Pomeroy numbers, arbitrarily giving 3 points for home court advantage to see what games Pitt would be favored in and which Pitt would be an underdog.

Result: If Pitt won every game ESPN has the favored in and lost every game ESPN has them the underdog the Pitt regular season would hypothetically end at 21-10 (12-8 ACC). Similarly, using Pomeroy numbers adjusted by an arbitrary 3 point home court advantage Pitt would hypothetically end up 22-9 (12-8 ACC).

The West Virginia game in Morgantown appears to be the primary difference between the two outcomes. ESPN has West Virginia favored, my calculation employing Pomeroy has Pitt slightly favored.

Hopefully, Pitt remains somewhat underrated and will eventually end up with a W-L record at least a couple of games better than these still very early rough guesses.

NOTE: Yes, I do know that Pitt will no doubt win some games it is expected to lose and lose some games it is expected to win and that there are better more accurate ways to estimate a possible final W-L record than the above flawed approaches--and, of course, it is still way too early for more than a WAG.

 

[sonofabit]

After the first couple of games played by most teams, I looked at changes to ESPN's Pitt favored vs not favored game by game. In another approach, used current Pomeroy numbers, arbitrarily giving 3 points for home court advantage to see what games Pitt would be favored in and which Pitt would be an underdog.

Result: If Pitt won every game ESPN has the favored in and lost every game ESPN has them the underdog the Pitt regular season would hypothetically end at 21-10 (12-8 ACC). Similarly, using Pomeroy numbers adjusted by an arbitrary 3 point home court advantage Pitt would hypothetically end up 22-9 (12-8 ACC).

The West Virginia game in Morgantown appears to be the primary difference between the two outcomes. ESPN has West Virginia favored, my calculation employing Pomeroy has Pitt slightly favored.

Hopefully, Pitt remains somewhat underrated and will eventually end up with a W-L record at least a couple of games better than these still very early rough guesses.

NOTE: Yes, I do know that Pitt will no doubt win some games it is expected to lose and lose some games it is expected to win and that there are better more accurate ways to estimate a possible final W-L record than the above flawed approaches--and, of course, it is still way too early for more than a WAG.

Pitt is now on film - as a team - that opposing coaches can scheme. Capel better be ready to counter. It’s gonna happen.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Similarly, using Pomeroy numbers adjusted by an arbitrary 3 point home court advantage Pitt would hypothetically end up 22-9 (12-8 ACC).

Or you could use Pomeroy's actual home court adjustments and determine their future record by adding up their win percentage chances in each game (which would be a far more accurate way of doing it) and Pomeroy has Pitt going 20-10, 12-8, not counting the game that isn't actually on the schedule yet.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Or you could use Pomeroy's actual home court adjustments and determine their future record by adding up their win percentage chances in each game (which would be a far more accurate way of doing it) and Pomeroy has Pitt going 20-10, 12-8, not counting the game that isn't actually on the schedule yet.

No argument with that. I would expect Pitt going 1-1 in Brooklyn. Since it would be a huge huge upset for Oregon State to beat Baylor and Pitt a slight underdog to Florida. Most likely Pitt either beats Florida (mild upset) and loses to Baylor or loses to Florida and then beats Oregon State. That is why I didn't omit the 2nd Brooklyn game from guessing Pitt's projected win total.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

No argument with that. I would expect Pitt going 1-1 in Brooklyn. Since it would be a huge huge upset for Oregon State to beat Baylor and Pitt a slight underdog to Florida. Most likely Pitt either beats Florida (mild upset) and loses to Baylor or loses to Florida and then beats Oregon State. That is why I didn't omit the 2nd Brooklyn game from guessing Pitt's projected win total.

Yeah, but the point is that just adding up the games that you are favored in doesn't actually tell you what your record is likely to be. If you are a 60-40 favorite in ten games, using your method you would say that they are predicting Pitt to be 10-0. In reality, they would be picking Pitt to be 6-4. That's just a little different.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

And the flip is also true. If you are a 40-60 underdog in ten games you should be 4-6 for those ten. Too lazy to do the entire schedule that way but suspect the total number of wins predicted over 31 games might not be much different using that method.

 

[Pitt2006]

Per the eye test, I predict:

NCAT W Q4
Bing W Q4
FGCU W Q3
Jack W Q4
UF W Q1
Baylor L Q1
Mizz W Q2
Clemson W 49 Q2
@WVU W Q2
Canisius W Q4
SC State W Q4
PFW W Q4
@Cuse W 109 Q2
UNC W 18 Q1
@UL W 175 Q4
Duke L 12 Q1
Cuse W Q3
@Duke L Q1
@ GT W 119 Q2
@UM L Q1
Wake W Q2
ND W Q4
@NCST W Q1
@Virginia W Q1
UL W Q4
@Wake W Q1
Vt W Q2
@ Clemson L Q1
@BC 122 W Q2
FSU L Q3
NCST W Q2

25-6 (15-5)

Maybe I’m optimistic, but UF, Mizz, and WVU seem a notch below where we thought preseason. ACC also not back to historical greatness. Yes there will be some we lose that we could win, but maybe we also split duke etc.

Quad wise
Q1 5-5
Q2 8-0
Q3 2-1
Q4 9-0

 

[Vader_Storm]

Per the eye test, I predict:

NCAT W
Bing W
FGCU W
Jack W
UF W
Baylor L
Mizz W
Clemson W
@WVU W
Canisius W
SC State W
PFW W
@Cuse W
UNC W
@UL W
Duke L
Cuse W
@Duke L
@ GT W
@UM L
Wake W
ND W
@NCST W
@Virginia W
UL W
@Wake W
Vet W
@ Clemson L
@BC W
FSU L
NCST W

25-6 (15-5)

Haslam (efficiency website) has our team starting the season 15-2 so you are not alone. I didn't look any further than the first half of the season from Haslam as that is more than far enough ahead for me.

Our real "unadjusted" efficiency is a lot better through 2 games than the "adjusted efficiency" metrics on these websites. Way better.


I think we have a major opportunity to do some great things this season. But from my view, Im taking it 1 game at a time starting with our opponent tomorrow. And Im also hoping our intensity stays 110% and we don't have a let down game with effort in the near future.

 

[Pitt2006]

Haslam (efficiency website) has our team starting the season 15-2 so you are not alone. I didn't look any further than the first half of the season from Haslam as that is more than far enough ahead for me.

Our real "unadjusted" efficiency is a lot better through 2 games than the "adjusted efficiency" metrics on these websites. Way better.


I think we have a major opportunity to do some great things this season. But from my view, Im taking it 1 game at a time starting with our opponent tomorrow. And Im also hoping our intensity stays 110% and we don't have a let down game with effort in the near future.

I agree one game at a time. But with chemistry and a non brutal schedule, this could really be a year to turn things around. The non brutal can be good and a curse. There is more pressure to beat WVu, Mizz, and UF Now. Also less ops for quality conference wins.

 

[docpanther26]

No matter what, it's much more enjoyable to have these types of discussions again rather than what ACC team may we actually beat this year.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

And the flip is also true. If you are a 40-60 underdog in ten games you should be 4-6 for those ten. Too lazy to do the entire schedule that way but suspect the total number of wins predicted over 31 games might not be much different using that method.

Tried it that way last night but didnt check my math. Predicted ~19.5 wins without the 2nd game in Brooklyn which should be a win if Pitt loses game #1 to Florida. If so, the predicted wins are ~20.5. So it seems there isnt much difference doing things the more mathematically correct way.