Louisville -1

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I guess that's about right; I figured it'd be close to a pick 'em. Looks like the juice in on Louisville, too (-120), so it may move to 1.5 or 2.

Kind of a weird season for them so far:

Got blown out by Syracuse (SU is good but not that good)

Defeated a UCF team that has beaten the snot out of everyone else they've played, including GT

Hung with a decent Florida State team in what was more or less a 50/50 game

Pounded South Florida, who sucks but has hung with some decent teams

Lost to Boston freaking College

Beat a lousy Virginia team


I didn't really expect to be in a position where we'd need to win a game, as underdogs, this early in the season in order to hang around in Coastal contention, but here we are. Any thoughts on how this plays out? I really don't know much about their team, but I've mentioned numerous times about our linebackers maintaining their assignments against Cunningham being a concern. I don't really have a prediction, but I think we could officially label the season as a major disappointment with a loss. Conversely, a win would put us right in the thick of things and might make that UNC game an early de facto Coastal championship game (I'd expect each team to lose one more after that, but the tie breaker would be huge).

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I guess that's about right; I figured it'd be close to a pick 'em. Looks like the juice in on Louisville, too (-120), so it may move to 1.5 or 2.

Kind of a weird season for them so far:

Got blown out by Syracuse (SU is good but not that good)

Defeated a UCF team that has beaten the snot out of everyone else they've played, including GT

Hung with a decent Florida State team in what was more or less a 50/50 game

Pounded South Florida, who sucks but has hung with some decent teams

Lost to Boston freaking College

Beat a lousy Virginia team


I didn't really expect to be in a position where we'd need to win a game, as underdogs, this early in the season in order to hang around in Coastal contention, but here we are. Any thoughts on how this plays out? I really don't know much about their team, but I've mentioned numerous times about our linebackers maintaining their assignments against Cunningham being a concern. I don't really have a prediction, but I think we could officially label the season as a major disappointment with a loss. Conversely, a win would put us right in the thick of things and might make that UNC game an early de facto Coastal championship game (I'd expect each team to lose one more after that, but the tie breaker would be huge).

Besides any wildcard like turnovers or key injuries, I see it coming down to their ability to stone our run. If they do I’d expect they’ll beat us. That is going to be pretty much the litmus test the rest of the way. We are not the team of the first game and a half that appeared to be able to attack multiple ways. We are the team of the last three games.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

The defense will play well enough to keep them in the game. If the QB position doesn't play better they will lose. If the QB position plays slightly above average they will win.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I guess that's about right; I figured it'd be close to a pick 'em. Looks like the juice in on Louisville, too (-120), so it may move to 1.5 or 2.

Kind of a weird season for them so far:

Got blown out by Syracuse (SU is good but not that good)

Defeated a UCF team that has beaten the snot out of everyone else they've played, including GT

Hung with a decent Florida State team in what was more or less a 50/50 game

Pounded South Florida, who sucks but has hung with some decent teams

Lost to Boston freaking College

Beat a lousy Virginia team


I didn't really expect to be in a position where we'd need to win a game, as underdogs, this early in the season in order to hang around in Coastal contention, but here we are. Any thoughts on how this plays out? I really don't know much about their team, but I've mentioned numerous times about our linebackers maintaining their assignments against Cunningham being a concern. I don't really have a prediction, but I think we could officially label the season as a major disappointment with a loss. Conversely, a win would put us right in the thick of things and might make that UNC game an early de facto Coastal championship game (I'd expect each team to lose one more after that, but the tie breaker would be huge).

ESPN FPI gives Louisville a 59.4% chance to win. This game is basically a toss-up. Sounds cliche but whoever plays better and makes less mistakes will win.

 

[h2p_5150]

I think every game the rest of the way, save maybe UVA (we should beat the piss out of them) will come down to turnovers and who makes more mistakes. We will have a lot of close spreads.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think every game the rest of the way, save maybe UVA (we should beat the piss out of them) will come down to turnovers and who makes more mistakes. We will have a lot of close spreads.

Yeah, I think this season has given us a lesson in what it's like to be UNC or Miami. You can have more talent than most of your competition, but it doesn't matter much if you're not able to put it all together... and good QB play will always win (or lose) the day.

I'm still clinging to the faint hope that something just clicks after this bye week, but I keep coming back to the fact that 50% of the season is gone and we've not shown the ability to take care of anybody, really. GT, VT, WVU... I could see having one of those games be a scare, but they were all pretty close late. WMU was a one-score game in the fourth quarter, also. I just have trouble believing good teams let that happen so consistently.

We kind of found a glitch in the video game in 2018 and didn't really even pretend to be anything other than a running team around this point in that season. That may need to happen again, to the dismay of those who wants to see this offense open up.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

ESPN FPI gives Louisville a 59.4% chance to win. This game is basically a toss-up. Sounds cliche but whoever plays better and makes less mistakes will win.

Jimmy Franks is terrible coming off the bye. I wonder how Vegas and the betting public feel about Narduzzi coming off the bye and if these odds reflect it.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Jimmy Franks is terrible coming off the bye. I wonder how Vegas and the betting public feel about Narduzzi coming off the bye and if these odds reflect it.

2015 - beat VT
2016 - lost to VT*
2017 - lost to UNC*
2018 - beat Duke
2019 - beat Syracuse
2019 - beat UNC*
2020 - beat FSU
2020 - beat GT*
2021 - beat VT

The asterisk games were kind of pseudo byes, because they were played on Thursday night. So we had like 12 days off before them and 9 days off after them (I didn't include the games played after them).

 

[Fk_Pitt]

2015 - beat VT
2016 - lost to VT*
2017 - lost to UNC*
2018 - beat Duke
2019 - beat Syracuse
2019 - beat UNC*
2020 - beat FSU
2020 - beat GT*
2021 - beat VT

The asterisk games were kind of pseudo byes, because they were played on Thursday night. So we had like 12 days off before them and 9 days off after them (I didn't include the games played after them).

Those are pretty good numbers, right? Don’t know how many of them were on the road but Pitt with the points this weeks might be a good play.

 

[h2p_5150]

2015 - beat VT
2016 - lost to VT*
2017 - lost to UNC*
2018 - beat Duke
2019 - beat Syracuse
2019 - beat UNC*
2020 - beat FSU
2020 - beat GT*
2021 - beat VT

The asterisk games were kind of pseudo byes, because they were played on Thursday night. So we had like 12 days off before them and 9 days off after them (I didn't include the games played after them).

7-2 is to pretty good. Those losses do stand out though. 2016 VT the team was not ready to play early on and 2017 UNC is one of his most embarrassing losses. Can't argue with 7-2 though.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Those are pretty good numbers, right? Don’t know how many of them were on the road but Pitt with the points this weeks might be a good play.

VT 2015 - that was that shitty weather game where we came up with a stop at the end (when the defense was pretty decent in 2015 but somehow the same cast of characters were historically awful in 2016)

Syracuse 2019 - that was that game where we got that big lead and them let them hit a 90ish-yard TD pass and almost come back (I think Davis fumbled at the end but it got overturned or something... would have allowed them to possibly tie it up)

FSU 2020 - the game where we were in the backfield every other play and pretty much pounded their QBs

GT 2020 - only after a bye week because it was postponed; that was the handshake game where we got up early and almost let them come back

VT 2021 - that game in the wind last season where we won like 28-7

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

7-2 is to pretty good. Those losses do stand out though. 2016 VT the team was not ready to play early on and 2017 UNC is one of his most embarrassing losses. Can't argue with 7-2 though.

I don't think I put much stock in the bye week one way or the other, especially with both teams coming off one. I expect most of the rest to be ugly games that come down to turnovers and who hits a few big plays - basically, exactly what you alluded to above.

The only time I can remember feeling like we implemented anything significantly different during the bye week was when we brought in V'Lique Carter for that 2018 Duke game. I honestly won't be shocked if we try doing more misdirection runs/sweeps with Means and Barden this season. It feels like Narduzzi is in his own special kind of Heaven when we're running the ball predominantly and effectively.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

We kind of found a glitch in the video game in 2018 and didn't really even pretend to be anything other than a running team around this point in that season. That may need to happen again, to the dismay of those who wants to see this offense open up.

Yes, I expect the same because it is fervently how Narduzzi wants the team to be. He wants the offense to shorten the game and assert its dominance and scratch and claw and burrow its way to wins that his dad would be proud of. Ok, but the only problems are that (1) the OL isn’t able to do that consistently (2) that kind of game negates talent advantage he is supposed to have over many of our conference opponents making every game a pick ‘em. Even crap like RI was that way far too long in that game.

It’s Ok, kind of, if you win all of those kind of games (I say “kind of” because pollsters will see a 24-14 type game against a hog swill opponent and think you struggled in it, even if you dominated things like TOP and total yards that most moron journalists don’t bother to look at; and you may even drop in the polls as a result). And Heaven forbid if you lose them, like the GT game which absolutely was due to our game plan that minimized all our advantages.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Yes, I expect the same because it is fervently how Narduzzi wants the team to be. He wants the offense to shorten the game and assert its dominance and scratch and claw and burrow its way to wins that his dad would be proud of. Ok, but the only problems are that (1) the OL isn’t able to do that consistently (2) that kind of game negates talent advantage he is supposed to have over many of our conference opponents making every game a pick ‘em. Even crap like RI was that way far too long in that game. It’s Ok, kind of, if you win all of those kind of games (I say “kind of” because pollsters will see a 24-14 type game against a hog swill opponent and think you struggled in it, even if you dominated things like TOP and total yards that most moron journalists don’t bother to look at; and you may even drop in the polls as a result). And Heaven forbid if you lose them, like the GT game which absolutely was due to our game plan that minimized all our advantages.

Yeah, I've given up on this offense looking pretty or interesting. We're either going to out-rugby our opponents to a decent record or we're not at this point. Games like WMU and VT give Narduzzi a little extra pep in his step, and he goes to bed on those nights thinking he has this universe all figured out.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Yeah, I've given up on this offense looking pretty or interesting. We're either going to out-rugby our opponents to a decent record or we're not at this point. Games like WMU and VT give Narduzzi a little extra pep in his step, and he goes to bed on those nights thinking he has this universe all figured out.

I'm not throwing in the towel yet on the offense. I don't think this is like 2018 where Watson had no clue about a passing game. Cignetti can & will pass. It is more that Slovis is turning into a Sal Genilla than a Nate Peterman type transfer QB. I'm hoping it is still residual effects of the Tennessee injury and this off week helps him the most. A one dimensional offense won't cut it and would lead to a 7-5 or 8-4 season. Need the light bulb to come on for Slovis (and the receivers) to finish strong at 9-3 and a chance at Charlotte again.

 

[BreakingPitt]

Maybe having Hammond back will help the Offense some .

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Yeah, I've given up on this offense looking pretty or interesting. We're either going to out-rugby our opponents to a decent record or we're not at this point. Games like WMU and VT give Narduzzi a little extra pep in his step, and he goes to bed on those nights thinking he has this universe all figured out.

Someone will point out at this stage in the thread that “We passed on 3 straight downs against GT to start.” Yes. Obviously ill schemed and poorly executed passes, which are both whole different problems, particularly given the first possession is typically tightly scripted and had been meticulously practiced during the week.

But the main thing is that we reverted to form after that, they anticipated that and stoned it … countless line plunges getting gang tackled, perhaps the occasional fruitless “WR screen” that even by the best teams usually equates to doing the defense a favor (truly what a horrid play, who thinks that is great football?) We didn’t truly open up again until it was too late and they were in prevent/aka victory mode.

Next will be the complaint reply that “It’s not necessary to keep ripping off the same bloody bandage”. Fair enough. But (1) that GT loss truly crushes now in light that the nation realizes Tennessee is a quality program and thus a ‘good losss’ for us; (2) this board is precisely for venting on such things, every fan board everywhere has the same thing happening right this minute; and (3) it’s useful to learn from history (and learning effectively occurs via reinforcement) or else we’re surely doomed to repeat it.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Someone will point out at this stage in the thread that “We passed on 3 straight downs against GT to start.” Yes. Obviously ill schemed and poorly executed passes, which are both whole different problems, particularly given the first possession is typically tightly scripted and had been meticulously practiced during the week.

But the main thing is that we reverted to form after that, they anticipated that and stoned it … countless line plunges getting gang tackled, perhaps the occasional fruitless “WR screen” that even by the best teams usually equates to doing the defense a favor (truly what a horrid play, who thinks that is great football?) We didn’t truly open up again until it was too late and they were in prevent/aka victory mode.

Next will be the complaint reply that “It’s not necessary to keep ripping off the same bloody bandage”. Fair enough. But (1) that GT loss truly crushes now in light that the nation realizes Tennessee is a quality program and thus a ‘good losss’ for us; (2) this board is precisely for venting on such things, every fan board everywhere has the same thing happening right this minute; and (3) it’s useful to learn from history (and learning effectively occurs via reinforcement) or else we’re surely doomed to repeat it.

I've said it before, but this goes beyond either running or passing, to me. We need to spread the field and operate with some tempo.

BC had one of the five lowest snap rates last season, and that has certainly carried over at times. This team simply isn't built to break the huddle with ten seconds on the play clock and run the ball into a congested mass of people. I fear we might revert back to that with Hammond, though. But Izzy, especially, needs to have space and needs to be able to find lanes. To make him run behind power formations is like having John Elway but making him throw left-handed.

Now, the power formations did work a bit at the end of the last game... at least on that final touchdown run. But it's a different story when a team is down and demoralized and has been trying to tackle a guy for 3.5 quarters. But to invite all the congestion to the line of scrimmage like we did to open up the WVU game, the GT game, the VT game... it's maddening.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I've said it before, but this goes beyond either running or passing, to me. We need to spread the field and operate with some tempo.

BC had one of the five lowest snap rates last season, and that has certainly carried over at times. This team simply isn't built to break the huddle with ten seconds on the play clock and run the ball into a congested mass of people. I fear we might revert back to that with Hammond, though. But Izzy, especially, needs to have space and needs to be able to find lanes. To make him run behind power formations is like having John Elway but making him throw left-handed.

Now, the power formations did work a bit at the end of the last game... at least on that final touchdown run. But it's a different story when a team is down and demoralized and has been trying to tackle a guy for 3.5 quarters. But to invite all the congestion to the line of scrimmage like we did to open up the WVU game, the GT game, the VT game... it's maddening.

I’d be happy with any alignment producing 10+ wins more than twice in ten years. (Yes I’m aware that’s two of the three times since 83). But his two years came with outliers of his offensive philosophy. The ones he had that were not (not counting a couple years that Whip merely took too long teaching his scheme until it finally worked in 21) are producing 5 to 7 losses guaranteed. Sorry, not going to applaud that. After a decade of a coach he’s supposed to consistently have us at a level like season. It won’t happen with these kind of offenses.

 

[Usuallyunusual-partdeux]

ESPN FPI gives Louisville a 59.4% chance to win. This game is basically a toss-up. Sounds cliche but whoever plays better and makes less mistakes will win.

I have no idea why and I could be completely wrong but I think we beat the 💩 out of them by 2 touchdowns. Defense will show up.

 

[Black_Man_Panther]

Someone will point out at this stage in the thread that “We passed on 3 straight downs against GT to start.” Yes. Obviously ill schemed and poorly executed passes, which are both whole different problems, particularly given the first possession is typically tightly scripted and had been meticulously practiced during the week.

But the main thing is that we reverted to form after that, they anticipated that and stoned it … countless line plunges getting gang tackled...

Yeah... the play design is a concern. I hate going back to the play Mumpfield was injured but it really was due to the play. 180lb skinny WR seal block on a DE. What possibly could go wrong? He gets hurt and Davis fumbles due to being blind sided. Only Wayne could have made that block. What is going thru Cignetti's head?

This talk of "mass of bodies clogging up the running lanes" is mostly bunk. Watch these plays from the endzone and 9/10 it is OL losing one-on-one matchups - usually Kradel but others as well. This not the 1983 Pitt OL.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

two mediocre teams battling it out to move up into the "slightly above average" category.. Even our ACC expert kind of agrees, although we are two tiers ahead of The ville so that's good.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

two mediocre teams battling it out to move up into the "slightly above average" category.. Even our ACC expert kind of agrees, although we are two tiers ahead of The ville so that's good.

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Probably true as of this hour (pending who gets injured when rolling off a coed this am, or doesn’t like the saliva level of the butt smooch from the coaches at practice today and enters the portal in a snit fit. Things will be much better for you at ODU, Bradley…

But that’s been the point of posts above (or should be the point anyway) that a staid, grinding, plodding offense equalizes the discrepancies in talent between two disparate teams. Good if you are the sucky team, not so good if you are supposedly the ‘more talented’.

We play like we did the last three weeks, we still may win by chance, but as long as Vile (yeah, my phone makes it Vile each time and I’m done fixing it) can somewhat clog up the couple lanes between the tackles better than VT could (and a girls lacrosse team could do that, frankly) then any ‘talent’ advantage supposedly had across the board is immediately gone. It then is a crap shoot. Or just plain crap, if it comes down to the kickers, as it well could.

Which it likely will be the case almost every year in most every conference game for us forever, I suppose. One just has the annoying foolish optimism that things could be a little better along for our program after a decade of the same HC. Well, there’s always the next time we have a 6th year QB, I guess.

 

[BreakingPitt]

If Syracuse can keep it within 2 touchdown's of Clemson I will be shocked. Clemson is not that good either.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

If Syracuse can keep it within 2 touchdown's of Clemson I will be shocked. Clemson is not that good either.

Clemson is a quandary. Since we’ve managed to beat them a couple times, I want them to stay somewhat elite, so those victories remain proud memories (we have so few).

They also need to be elite because they still are the only football program in our conference that the adult conferences don’t snicker about and make us pull their finger. We need ONE program like that, at least.

But they can’t be so elite that they are always the juggernaut that held us to 8 yards offense in the “championship” game we stumbled into with them couple years ago, and possibly, by Grace of Allah, Buddha, Vishnu and Jebus, by chance, by the equivalent of Powerball fortune, the next pandemic that lets us keep our QB a sixth year again, someday could happen again.

But at the same time they can not so “ordinary” that a gibrone Syracuse could beat them or frankly even come within 3 Td of them.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

two mediocre teams battling it out to move up into the "slightly above average" category.. Even our ACC expert kind of agrees, although we are two tiers ahead of The ville so that's good.

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NC State and Florida State should be in the tier with Pitt, UNC, and Miami. To consider either definitively better is nonsense. UNC will beat the pants off NC State, and Miami vs FSU will go down to the wire.