Making the NIT

[Sean Miller Fan]

This is something nobody really talks about, probably because nobody really cares but its really hard to make the NIT now since they have been giving auto bids to regular season conference champions who dont make the NCAAT.

Out of the 32 teams, 10 are these types of teams. 8-10 are NCAAT bubblish teams. Leaving only 12-14 spots for teams which are not really NCAAT caliber (ie were never really "on the bubble")

I say this because it would be my stretch goal to make the NIT this year. That is extremely unrealistic and I dont expect it but if this team were to go 11-2 and 6-12, that's better in my book than a football ta going to a bowl game at 6-6 but this team would not get an NIT bid.

 

[FireballZ]

This is something nobody really talks about, probably because nobody really cares but its really hard to make the NIT now since they have been giving auto bids to regular season conference champions who dont make the NCAAT.

Out of the 32 teams, 10 are these types of teams. 8-10 are NCAAT bubblish teams. Leaving only 12-14 spots for teams which are not really NCAAT caliber (ie were never really "on the bubble")

I say this because it would be my stretch goal to make the NIT this year. That is extremely unrealistic and I dont expect it but if this team were to go 11-2 and 6-12, that's better in my book than a football ta going to a bowl game at 6-6 but this team would not get an NIT bid.

17-14 could get them into the NIT depending on how high quality the wins were. I agree with you that it should be the reasonable stretch goal for this team, but I'm sure Coach Jeff is preaching NCAAT or bust.

 

[wbrpanther]

This is something nobody really talks about, probably because nobody really cares but its really hard to make the NIT now since they have been giving auto bids to regular season conference champions who dont make the NCAAT.

Out of the 32 teams, 10 are these types of teams. 8-10 are NCAAT bubblish teams. Leaving only 12-14 spots for teams which are not really NCAAT caliber (ie were never really "on the bubble")

I say this because it would be my stretch goal to make the NIT this year. That is extremely unrealistic and I dont expect it but if this team were to go 11-2 and 6-12, that's better in my book than a football ta going to a bowl game at 6-6 but this team would not get an NIT bid.

This could be doable but we will have to see them play a few games to see what is possible.

 

[levance2]

There is no chance this team makes the NIT.

 

[FireballZ]

There is no chance this team makes the NIT.

Do you think this team can go .500? I realize it's impossible to have a good feel w/o seeing the freshman plays. I think N'Dir might surprise.

 

[levance2]

Do you think this team can go .500? I realize it's impossible to have a good feel w/o seeing the freshman plays. I think N'Dir might surprise.

Going .500 is a completely different thing than making the NIT.

After Pitt lost to Duquesne two years ago, I posted that they wouldn't make the NIT that season. The margin for an ACC team making the NIT but not the NCAA is razor thin. Even if we went 13-0 and then 5-13 in conference, that wouldn't earn an NIT bid. The worst looking recent resume was 2017 Clemson who made the NIT at 17-15 (6-12) but they had a reasonably impressive OOC with 5 top-100 KP wins, which we will certainly not get.

If I were going to make an uninformed season prediction, I'd go with 10-3 OOC and probably 3-15 in ACC. I might even be a little bit optimistic expecting 3 wins.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There is no chance this team makes the NIT.

I know. But in the olden days, a major D1 team would just need to go .500 to make it. 11-2, 5-13 is still better than I'd expect but at least its semi-attainable. Now, the there is a very thin line in making the NCAAT and not even making the NIT. Like, say 4 games.

Lets say 11-2, 9-9 makes the NCAAT. Well, 11-2, 6-12 MIGHT miss the NIT, and 11-2, 5-13 definitely misses the NIT

 

[FireballZ]

I know. But in the olden days, a major D1 team would just need to go .500 to make it. 11-2, 5-13 is still better than I'd expect but at least its semi-attainable. Now, the there is a very thin line in making the NCAAT and not even making the NIT. Like, say 4 games.

Lets say 11-2, 9-9 makes the NCAAT. Well, 11-2, 6-12 MIGHT miss the NIT, and 11-2, 5-13 definitely misses the NIT

Agreed that 6-12 is probably the floor for the NIT unless almost all of the mid-major conference regular season winners also win their conference tournaments, which very rarely happens.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I know. But in the olden days, a major D1 team would just need to go .500 to make it. 11-2, 5-13 is still better than I'd expect but at least its semi-attainable. Now, the there is a very thin line in making the NCAAT and not even making the NIT. Like, say 4 games.

Lets say 11-2, 9-9 makes the NCAAT. Well, 11-2, 6-12 MIGHT miss the NIT, and 11-2, 5-13 definitely misses the NIT

Agreed that 6-12 is probably the floor for the NIT unless almost all of the mid-major conference regular season winners also win their conference tournaments, which very rarely happens.

And that isn't right. NC State went 2-6 in the ACC and beat 4 G5 teams to go to a bowl game a few years back. If we were to go 4-14 or 5-13 and lets say 12-1 in the OOC, that's as good of a season as some of these 6-6 or 5-7 bowl teams.

There's no way this teams wins 6 ACC games and probably not 4 but the thing that upsets me is this team isnt really playing for anything post-season wise. The NIT is an impossible dream this year due to few at-large spots available. Plenty of good teams dont make it. They should expand it to 48 or 64.

Or I like the Europa League/Champions League format where you would go to the NIT once you lose in the NCAA Tournament

 

[PittAU]

There is no chance this team makes the NIT.

Come on man, get back on the bus. It starts Thursday with UPJ!

Hail to Pitt!

We All We Got!

 

[FireballZ]

And that isn't right. NC State went 2-6 in the ACC and beat 4 G5 teams to go to a bowl game a few years back. If we were to go 4-14 or 5-13 and lets say 12-1 in the OOC, that's as good of a season as some of these 6-6 or 5-7 bowl teams.

There's no way this teams wins 6 ACC games and probably not 4 but the thing that upsets me is this team isnt really playing for anything post-season wise. The NIT is an impossible dream this year due to few at-large spots available. Plenty of good teams dont make it. They should expand it to 48 or 64.

Or I like the Europa League/Champions League format where you would go to the NIT once you lose in the NCAA Tournament

I don't think it's impossible for Pitt to make the NIT this year. Certainly a longshot. Players improve. It'll depend on how good the two freshman guards are offensively, IMO. I think Capel will have them much improved defensively, but scoring will once again be a concern. Can't have long stretches without scoring again next year and be successful.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I don't think it's impossible for Pitt to make the NIT this year. Certainly a longshot. Players improve. It'll depend on how good the two freshman guards are offensively, IMO. I think Capel will have them much improved defensively, but scoring will once again be a concern. Can't have long stretches without scoring again next year and be successful.

Well, it has been rumored that the frosh guards scored 45 of teams 60 points in secret scrimmage so they appear to be very good--but, it wasn't vs ACC competition--and they are freshmen. It appears a little concerning that the rest of the team may have only scored 15. So, yes, an NIT bid is probably a stretch.

IMHO, we should be content with 12-15 total wins to include 3-5 ACC wins this season. That seems doable and would be far far better than 8-24 (0-19 ACC)!

 

[wbrpanther]

There is no chance this team makes the NIT.

None? Zero? Not even 1%?

 

[FireballZ]

None? Zero? Not even 1%?

Many people thought Pastner's first team at GT might only win 1-2 in the ACC. Pretty sure they made the NIT.

 

[wbrpanther]

Many people thought Pastner's first team at GT might only win 1-2 in the ACC. Pretty sure they made the NIT.

Right. I just hate when people say zero chance because stranger things happen all the time in sports and life in general.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Many people thought Pastner's first team at GT might only win 1-2 in the ACC. Pretty sure they made the NIT.

Right. I just hate when people say zero chance because stranger things happen all the time in sports and life in general.

Pitt probably has a 2%-5% chance to make the NIT. I just dont like how hard it is to make. At 8-10, an ACC team is right there in the NCAAT conversation. At 5-13, they don't even make the NIT. There is very little drop between making the NCAAT and not making the NIT

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Yep. It will be very very hard to get an NIT bid out of the ACC.

An NIT bid probably requires at least a 17-15 record overall. That would mean winning 6-7 in ACC play after winning 11 or 10 OOC. Do a little better in the ACC and you might get an NCAA bid. The NIT window is narrow for an ACC team (17-15, 18-14, maybe 19-13 if you fall off the NCAA bubble). A 20-12 or better record for an ACC team is going to be an NCAA lock most years.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

17-14 could get them into the NIT depending on how high quality the wins were. I agree with you that it should be the reasonable stretch goal for this team, but I'm sure Coach Jeff is preaching NCAAT or bust.

You mean 17-15 after an ACC tourney loss, I presume.

 

[Chescat]

Yep. It will be very very hard to get an NIT bid out of the ACC.

An NIT bid probably requires at least a 17-15 record overall. That would mean winning 6-7 in ACC play after winning 11 or 10 OOC. Do a little better in the ACC and you might get an NCAA bid. The NIT window is narrow for an ACC team (17-15, 18-14, maybe 19-13 if you fall off the NCAA bubble). A 20-12 or better record for an ACC team is going to be an NCAA lock most years.

A NIT bid out of the ACC with our lineup this year is almost impossibe IMO.
Put our team in a league like the A-10 and our chances would be very good.
We'd probably win most of our non league games, let's say 10, and then do
better than 500 in league games, and we'd be in. We might even actually
be an NCAA bubble team this year out of the A-10. Basically what I'm
saying is the ACC is a killer league for the NIT, but not necessarily for an
A-10 team if a team can maybe do 500 in league.

 

[goalieman]

I doubt we will make any tournament this season but if we do, it may be the CBI.

 

[FireballZ]

I doubt we will make any tournament this season but if we do, it may be the CBI.

I don't think there's been a P5 team in the CBI for several years...

EDIT: Since 2014 (PSU, Oregon State and T A&M)

 

[goalieman]

I don't think there's been a P5 team in the CBI for several years...

EDIT: Since 2014 (PSU, Oregon State and T A&M)

Colorado was in it in 2015 from the PAC12 ...... P5 teams were invited since then but turned the invitation down ..... I guess we would probably turn it down if invited.

 

[levance2]

None? Zero? Not even 1%?

The problem is our OOC SOS is TERRIBLE (as it should be) and we're still going to end up with losses to WVU and Iowa, if not more.

I guess if you want to use Pastner as an example of a miracle...

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

None? Zero? Not even 1%?

The problem is our OOC SOS is TERRIBLE (as it should be) and we're still going to end up with losses to WVU and Iowa, if not more.

I guess if you want to use Pastner as an example of a miracle...

And that GT team ended up having players way better than anyone thought.

- They had an All-ACC freshman in Josh Okogie who was better than anyone thought.

- The Australian big guy, Lammers made a huge leap forward and turned into an actually good ACC big guy, one of the better 5's in the conference

- Tadric Jackson improved a great deal and developed into an offensive threat at guard

- Then you had Quinton Stephens as the designated shooter.

For Pitt to get anywhere close to that GT team, they will need to get production out of the 5 and I'm not seeing it. They'll also need McGowens and/or XJ to be a 15-17 PPG scorer and that's asking a lot. Additionally, a guy like Ellison or JWF will have to average 13-16. And the usual defend and rebound.

The ACC is a different animal. Half the teams or more go to the ACCT. Those teams are so good that the bottom teams rack up too many losses so 5-6 teams dont make any post-season leaving only 1-3 teams for the NIT

To me, if an ACC team goes 12-1, 4-14, 0-1 for a 16-16 record, that's the same as 6-6 in football and should get an NIT bid but they wont.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Well, it has been rumored that the frosh guards scored 45 of teams 60 points in secret scrimmage so they appear to be very good--but, it wasn't vs ACC competition--and they are freshmen. It appears a little concerning that the rest of the team may have only scored 15. So, yes, an NIT bid is probably a stretch.

IMHO, we should be content with 12-15 total wins to include 3-5 ACC wins this season. That seems doable and would be far far better than 8-24 (0-19 ACC)!

That just shows us that the talent that was on last year's team wasn't very good compared to what Capel brought in with the freshmen guards. And I doubt very much that a Stewart or Carr would have made any difference. They aren't close to the players that McGowen and Johnson are, from all reports. But we don't know that for sure since neither one of them has played one game in college yet.

 

[ScrantonicityIII]

Got one guy worried we won't make the NIT and one guy worried we will lose our first tune up game. I guess confidence is pretty low on this season, which is to be expected.

 

[Chescat]

Colorado was in it in 2015 from the PAC12 ...... P5 teams were invited since then but turned the invitation down ..... I guess we would probably turn it down if invited.

If we were invited this year, IMO we would not turn it down. An NIT
bid would be a major accomplishment following on the heels of last
year's debacle. I do agree with what you said about P-5 conferences
usually turning the invitation down. However given our very recent past,
it would indicate an upward trajectory for Pitt.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Colorado was in it in 2015 from the PAC12 ...... P5 teams were invited since then but turned the invitation down ..... I guess we would probably turn it down if invited.

If we were invited this year, IMO we would not turn it down. An NIT
bid would be a major accomplishment following on the heels of last
year's debacle. I do agree with what you said about P-5 conferences
usually turning the invitation down. However given our very recent past,
it would indicate an upward trajectory for Pitt.

There really is no "invitation" to the CBI for P5 teams. Its pay for play. If a P5 team wanted to be in it, they just call up Gazelle Group and tell them they want in. They wont be turned down regardless of record. The CBI has even been having a hard time getting mid-majors to play as they opt for that collegeinsider.com tournament.

Given how many brand name programs with winning records there are that dont make the NIT, I can't believe there isnt a TV market for a tournament.