OT: Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes a bust?

[pittjas]

Bust is such an overused word.

He needs to pick up the offensive numbers, specifically 2Bs/HRs to be a star.

But he’s absolutely worth the contract the Pirates gave him and is the best defensive 3B in baseball.

A bust would be if he was platooning right now or barely able to make the roster.

He’ll be the Pirates 3rd basemen for the future and has one elite skill. That’s not a bust.

 

[Ski11585]

It's okay to have a tiny bit of nuance in a discussion like this.

 

[Drew1208]

Bust definitely is harsh to describe right now. Poker goes 0 or 100 and skips 1 thru 99 somehow always. Love you for it.

Also I don't think how the pirates deal with contacts is relevant to any discussion when evaluating a player.

I think the phrase ... he's been disappointing with the bat so far in his career, is more accurate.

Bust is term for a total failure. Hayes isn't that.

He's got a whole season to prove or not prove more of what he is.
But my guess is that Hayes has a long career in the majors and I'm not sure anyone with a long career in the majors could ever be considered a Bust. But we'll see. I just think this jumps the gun.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

It's okay to have a tiny bit of nuance in a discussion like this.

Good luck with that one.

 

[HopeandChangeforAntoons]

You can argue that he hasn’t developed as hoped. But how can you talk about “cheap ass Pirates”, then bitch about them giving him that contract. When they signed him everyone thought he was a future star. Even the big spenders sometimes do so on players that don’t pan out. And he is far from written off anyway.

 

[thirteenNINE]

Hayes is on a big contract by Pirates standards but a really really cheap contract by MLB standards. And it has been acknowledged herein that he is a strong plus defensively.

But none of the above discounts the fact that you need way more offensively out of a corner infielder. So instead of calling people lunatics why don’t you try to objectively look at or discuss the overall picture.

But you don't need more offense out of a corner infielder when they're the best defensive player in the game who was worth 3 WAR alone just with the glove last year.. Hayes is already one of the 50 or so best position players in baseball even with his below average offense and he's signed to a team friendly contract until 2030.

Only Pirate fans would be calling him a bust.

And that's leaving aside that his batted ball profile points to potential for room for improvement now that the shift has been eliminated. Hayes' problem hasn't been making hard contact (he was in the 89th percentile for max exit velocity and 85th percentile in average exit velocity last year among all players) but it has been his launch angle and hitting hard ground balls right at infielders. His plate discipline remains pretty solidly middle of the pack and he rarely swings and misses (probably too rarely, actually). It is very early so far but the numbers and just watching his swing seems as though he is trying to correct that this year and if he does he goes from a top 50 position player to a top 25 or up position player.

So yeah, I could sit here and argue with actual facts all day but I don't think that those calling Hayes a bust are really interested in an objective look so I'm sticking with lunatics.

 

[PittPoker]

But you don't need more offense out of a corner infielder when they're the best defensive player in the game who was worth 3 WAR alone just with the glove last year.. Hayes is already one of the 50 or so best position players in baseball even with his below average offense and he's signed to a team friendly contract until 2030.

Only Pirate fans would be calling him a bust.

And that's leaving aside that his batted ball profile points to potential for room for improvement now that the shift has been eliminated. Hayes' problem hasn't been making hard contact (he was in the 89th percentile for max exit velocity and 85th percentile in average exit velocity last year among all players) but it has been his launch angle and hitting hard ground balls right at infielders. His plate discipline remains pretty solidly middle of the pack and he rarely swings and misses (probably too rarely, actually). It is very early so far but the numbers and just watching his swing seems as though he is trying to correct that this year and if he does he goes from a top 50 position player to a top 25 or up position player.

So yeah, I could sit here and argue with actual facts all day but I don't think that those calling Hayes a bust are really interested in an objective look so I'm sticking with lunatics.

Look man you're the same guy who wrote that Omier wouldn't do well in the ACC and you also wrote that Fede was not gonna be good at all and listed all these reasons that turned out to be complete crap. So stop acting like you are the know all end all of everything. Hayes sucks at the plate, has little to no power at all. Signing someone for $70 million to play "really good defense" is ridiculous.

I would guarantee all the Pirates brass expected a whole lot more from Hayes at the plate. Hell they should have signed Gorkys Hernandez to a long term deal a few years ago because he was a great great defense guy remember?

Give me a break.

 

[Ski11585]

Look man you're the same guy who wrote that Omier wouldn't do well in the ACC and you also wrote that Fede was not gonna be good at all and listed all these reasons that turned out to be complete crap. So stop acting like you are the know all end all of everything. Hayes sucks at the plate, has little to no power at all. Signing someone for $70 million to play "really good defense" is ridiculous.

I would guarantee all the Pirates brass expected a whole lot more from Hayes at the plate. Hell they should have signed Gorkys Hernandez to a long term deal a few years ago because he was a great great defense guy remember?

Give me a break.

Again. Your position would be more convincing if you weren't citing incorrect information and then responding to everyone with "lol he sucks."

 

[Drew1208]

Look man you're the same guy who wrote that Omier wouldn't do well in the ACC and you also wrote that Fede was not gonna be good at all and listed all these reasons that turned out to be complete crap. So stop acting like you are the know all end all of everything. Hayes sucks at the plate, has little to no power at all. Signing someone for $70 million to play "really good defense" is ridiculous.

I would guarantee all the Pirates brass expected a whole lot more from Hayes at the plate. Hell they should have signed Gorkys Hernandez to a long term deal a few years ago because he was a great great defense guy remember?

Give me a break.

All of that still doesn't add up to he's a bust.

 

[Parkview57]

but Hayes has really good peripheral numbers. His average exit velocity is good.

LOL, now that is "drinking the Kool-Aide"

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Bust is such an overused word.

He needs to pick up the offensive numbers, specifically 2Bs/HRs to be a star.

But he’s absolutely worth the contract the Pirates gave him and is the best defensive 3B in baseball.

A bust would be if he was platooning right now or barely able to make the roster.

He’ll be the Pirates 3rd basemen for the future and has one elite skill. That’s not a bust.

Like I said, SIX years from now he'll still only be making $8 million. If he never becomes much more than he is now, he will be well worth the contract that he's playing under.

Of course everyone wants his offense to improve. If it does, five or six years from now there's a chance that he will be on the most team friendly contract in all of baseball.

 

[InDuzzwetrust]

This is a fair thread. A third basemen needs to hit. Hayes has to improve offensively. It’s hard to argue that he has had an impact worthy of his contract but Pirate truthers will always find a way.

 

[bmvenslosky3]

I think a lot of the third basemen need to hit guys are living in the past where different positions had stereotypical attributes. Hayes is a wizard with the glove And we can only hope he'll be okay offensively. Cruz is a freak of nature giraffe at shortstop that hits like a all star dh but unfortunately fields like one sometimes too. Baseball is about getting value where it's available and exploiting it. Poker I love watching you live and die during each game during the season but take a seat on this one bud.

 

[InDuzzwetrust]

I have to disagree. There’s no doubt that Hayes is an elite defender, but there are defensive specialists out there who would cost a fraction of his salary. Of course, he could develop into a bargain (8-10 million a year is not an exorbitant salary in MLB) but he hasn’t been one yet. There are plenty of articles out there about how Hayes needs to hit.

 

[Upg bobcat]

I think a lot of the third basemen need to hit guys are living in the past where different positions had stereotypical attributes. Hayes is a wizard with the glove And we can only hope he'll be okay offensively. Cruz is a freak of nature giraffe at shortstop that hits like a all star dh but unfortunately fields like one sometimes too. Baseball is about getting value where it's available and exploiting it. Poker I love watching you live and die during each game during the season but take a seat on this one bud.

I'm not a baseball expert, but it sounds like the obvious answer is to swap defensive positions of Hayes and Cruz.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I'm not overreacting to his first 6 games, I'm just pointing out he sucked at the plate his last 2 seasons and so far he sucks all the worse. You were probably the same guy praising Jose Tabata and Polanco as well, years into their contracts claiming the Pirates made out like a bandit.

The pirates are paying their starting catcher who bats .189 for his career 5 million dollars. I’d say Hayes is fine comparative speaking.

 

[Ski11585]

I just can’t get over drawing any meaningful conclusions from 20 at bats.

And hey! If we’re talking small sample size he’s batting .333 the last two games with a double and an RBI.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I just can’t get over drawing any meaningful conclusions from 20 at bats.

And hey! If we’re talking small sample size he’s batting .333 the last two games with a double and an RBI.

It’s just like a typical game thread.

Pitt vs Syracuse game thread-
Post #3 comes at the 19:56 mark of the game. Pitt loses the opening tip. And we get…

“Fede sucks man! This team sucks!! Fire Capel. We are going to lose by 20! I’m tired of this, man.”

 

[Ski11585]

It’s just like a typical game thread.

Pitt vs Syracuse game thread-
Post #3 comes at the 19:56 mark of the game. Pitt loses the opening tip. And we get…

“Fede sucks man! This team sucks!! Fire Capel. We are going to lose by 20! I’m tired of this, man.”

I am man enough to admit that three minutes into the UNC game I posted a “we’re gonna lose by 20” post. So I guess I can’t throw too many stones.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I am man enough to admit that three minutes into the UNC game I posted a “we’re gonna lose by 20” post. So I guess I can’t throw too many stones.

We’re probably all guilty. Part of being a fan/emotion. But some are much more guilty (among other things) than others.

 

[President Stache]

What do you guys think of him at this point? Cheap ass Pirates signed the dude to a $70 million dollar + contract and let's be real, he can't hit at all and has little to no power at all. 2 straight seasons of below avg hitting. In 2021 he hit .257 with 38 RBI'S and in 2022 he hit .244 with 41 RBI's. Both seasons very few HR's. And in 6 games so far in 2023 he is hitting a very impressive. 100!!! 2 for 20 with an RBI.

Look I get it he is a damn good defensive 3rd baseman(even though he led the NL in errors by a 3rd basemen last season) but I am sure a lot more was expected of him at the plate. Especially after his great 6 weeks in 2020 during the covid season. Unfortunately he has been a big dud. He can't hit. Shelton now has him batting 6th and 7th so far this season with 1 game at leadoff against a lefty.

For me the contract is looking like another bad decision like the Polanco one. Except this is a much bigger one than that. Hayes has been a major disappointment and I can't help to think he will end up being remembered here in Pittsburgh as another overhyped prospect that didn't work out and was a bust.

Of course not, he is one of the best fielding third baseman in the game and hits ok, although below what you want. A bust would be not making the bigs or barely a cup of coffee, like Cole Tucker

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Of course not, he is one of the best fielding third baseman in the game and hits ok, although below what you want. A bust would be not making the bigs or barely a cup of coffee, like Cole Tucker

Some might say Cole Tucker is punching above his weight in his love life. I would probably disagree. But beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Just like with Hayes.

 

[MTkeeper23]

What a failure of a thread. Of course it would be when the first post is complaining about RBIs as if that’s an actual stat that means anything. This isn’t 1990.

Then every time a poster disagrees, he just says nah you’re wrong that a bust. What a joke poster.

 

[President Stache]

What a failure of a thread. Of course it would be when the first post is complaining about RBIs as if that’s an actual stat that means anything. This isn’t 1990.

Then every time a poster disagrees, he just says nah you’re wrong that a bust. What a joke poster.

Not only is he not a bust, but the more I think about it, he is probably one of the Pirates best picks. He will get better too. He has a loop in his swing, I really cant believe they dont see it and fix it, he doesnt draw his hands back and keep the same plane. He loops and it causes him to pop the ball up an inordinate amount (or tops the ball causing weak grounders). His first season he didnt do this and was barreling everything. I think he will get back to that.

RBI is still a valid stat, it never meant a thing for a leadoff hitter, but you cant deny if you are batting in more runs than anyone else, you can be said to be the most valuable. But I get your point

 

[PittPoker]

Not only is he not a bust, but the more I think about it, he is probably one of the Pirates best picks. He will get better too.

Another pick for worst post of the year.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

you cant deny if you are batting in more runs than anyone else, you can be said to be the most valuable.

Well maybe you can be said to be the most valuable. But if anyone actually thinks that that would make someone the most valuable that would be really dumb.

You even have the reason sort of figured out there in your post when referring to lead off hitters. If RBIs are so important for everyone else, why not lead off hitters? Because of opportunities. And opportunities are different for every hitter in the lineup and vary greatly from team to team.

RBIs tell you at least as much, probably even more, about the quality of a player's teammates than they tell you about the quality of the player himself.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If you want an example of what I am talking about, just look at last season. Pete Alonzo and Aaron Judge tied for the major league lead in RBIs. Alonzo slashed .271/.352/.518. That's really good. Judge slashed .311/.425/.686. That is not just a little better, that is better by a huge amount. Yet they both ended up with the exact same number of RBIs.

 

[Parkview57]

That is not just a little better, that is better by a huge amount. Yet they both ended up with the exact same number of RBIs.

I get it. But it is a backwards comparison. Judge had a HOF year, MVP without a doubt etc., no comparison between the two. However, in judging Alonzo's season one would conclude that driving in 131 runs involves a lot of "clutch" hitting, that is, solidly putting the ball in play with RISP, a very valuable trait.
Predictably, the difference between the two is that with his numbers ,Judge scored 38 more runs. So not only did Judge drive in 131, he scored 133 vs only 95 for Alonzo.

 

[bmvenslosky3]

I get it. But it is a backwards comparison. Judge had a HOF year, MVP without a doubt etc., no comparison between the two. However, in judging Alonzo's season one would conclude that driving in 131 runs involves a lot of "clutch" hitting, that is, solidly putting the ball in play with RISP, a very valuable trait.
Predictably, the difference between the two is that with his numbers ,Judge scored 38 more runs. So not only did Judge drive in 131, he scored 133 vs only 95 for Alonzo.

Yeah that's the point. He's saying that judging someone's value on rbi's is dumb

 

[Parkview57]

He's saying that judging someone's value on rbi's is dumb

If you say so....No value here?

 

[Drew1208]

So what's the early report on that Cruz injury?

 

[PittPharm2002]

But he is a bust. Teams don't sign 3rd baseman to $10 million dollar a year contracts and offer 1 of the biggest contracts in team history because they play good defense.

Always count on double down for Terrible emotionally fragile takes

 

[HailToPitt725]

So what's the early report on that Cruz injury?

Fractured ankle. I’d guess he’s out 2-3 months.

 

[Drew1208]

Fractured ankle. I’d guess he’s out 2-3 months.

Well it was Hayes' fault. If he didn't suck that would've never happened.

i don't remember the new age plate rules but looked like Cruz half committed between two choices and that ****ed him up.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Well it was Hayes' fault. If he didn't suck that would've never happened.

i don't remember the new age plate rules but looked like Cruz half committed between two choices and that ****ed him up.

That was my thought too. It looked like he thought "I'm going to plow that guy over, oh, wait, I can't do that, I better slide" and he got stuck in the middle.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If you say so....No value here?

Of course there is value there. But you have the cause and effect backwards. It's not lots of RBIs means a really good player, it's a really good player with lots of opportunities yields lots of RBIs. The same player with fewer opportunities gets fewer RBIs, not because they are magically a lesser player, but because (typically) their teammates are not as good at providing them with the opportunities.

The RBIs are the byproduct of good players getting chances. Not the other way around.

 

[Parkview57]

Of course there is value there.

Perhaps we are splitting hairs, but the great players produce runs, that is score runs and drive them in. I believe also there are clutch hitters, guys like Carl Yastremski (.285) and Tony Perez (.276) who despite somewhat lower Batting averages land 15th and 32nd respectively as all time rbi leaders.They were known as clutch hitters for a reason.

Here is Ralph Kiner's rbi totals '47-'51 on very bad teams. (154 games )
'47 127 next to last place
'48 123 4th out of 8
''49 127 6th out of 8 (led the league)
'50 118 last place
'51 109 next to last place
Anyone that thinks these Pirates teams gave Kiner "lots of opportunities" does not know the history of those years.

Ernie Banks '58 led the league with 129 on a 5th place team(72-82) and did the same in '59 147 on a fifth place team.(74-80) He played on a ton of poor cubs teams but is 33 all-time.

It's not lots of RBIs means a really good player,

I disagree, as evidence I again present the all time rbi list. It is difficult to name some of the top 200 rbi leaders that were not really good players. Even down to the top 300, it is full of players who had very good careers. The other traditional categories(HR's/BA) do not have anywhere near the depth as predictor of "really good players" as the rbi totals do. That's all I got.

 

[PittPoker]

Hayes hitting .139 with a .356 OPS, jeez he sucks.

 

[President Stache]

Well maybe you can be said to be the most valuable. But if anyone actually thinks that that would make someone the most valuable that would be really dumb.

You even have the reason sort of figured out there in your post when referring to lead off hitters. If RBIs are so important for everyone else, why not lead off hitters? Because of opportunities. And opportunities are different for every hitter in the lineup and vary greatly from team to team.

RBIs tell you at least as much, probably even more, about the quality of a player's teammates than they tell you about the quality of the player himself.

I am not arguing, since I am a statistician, and dont think RBIs are the most important thing either. I only said, since, scoring more runs wins games, and I believe pitching is the most important thing but pitchers arent out there everyday, so they should not win MVP, that those with astronomical RBI totals are the most important. Clutch hitters that can drive in runs are important, and those that do that consistently all year, I feel are more valuable than those with just high slugging, or on base or whatever...

 

[PittPanther44]

It is a little early in the season to complain about the guy. Let’s give it more than 5 games.

Also, relative to MLB in total, I know this may sound crazy, but that contract is not really that much. It is a lot for the Pirates because they pay no one but for baseball in total, if he just fields like he did last year and hits average, it is market.

It’s not a lot by star player standards - but that’s the type of production that you can get from a revolving door of journeyman players.

I’m not ready to call him a bust though. I think it was a worthwhile shot because his defense makes his overall floor very high. But he needs to hit if he is a legit chip on a contending team.