OT: Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes a bust?
- Thread starter PittPoker
- Start date
They have BA/RISP which is simply your batting average with runners in scoring position. It’s annoyingly hard to find, they like to show that for teams not individual players. You can find this years stats but it’s so early.
There's a bunch but I think that the best is probably WPA/LI.
WPA is win probability added which is what it says on the tin, it's how much that a batter has changed the win probability of the game on an at bat by at bat basis cumulatively over the course of the season. LI is leverage index which is a stat that is scaled to 1 that measures how high the leverage that a player has faced, it's a little bit kludge-y but it does a pretty good job of who is coming up in more high pressure situations.
So you take who added the most to their team's win probability divided by who faced the highest pressure situations and voila. Clutch measurements or at least close to it.
Yeah, it's pretty fun. Because it is cumulative it tends to lead to a lot of "Well, duh!" results over time like Barry Bonds being way ahead of the pack but I enjoy looking at it year by year because sometimes you get weird outcomes like the time that Melvin Mora was the most clutch hitter in the AL for a year.
He takes a lot of 92 mph strikes over the heart of the plate.
One thing that both "new age" stats and "old age" stats have consistently shown is that there really are not "clutch hitters". Players tend to perform relatively speaking approximately the same in clutch situations that they do in non-clutch situations when the sample size gets large enough.
Another 0fer so far tonight 0 for 4, he's 0 for his last 12, now hitting .125 with a stellar OPS of .321!!!
But but but the Hayes apologists love that defense!! Dude has 5 hits in 10 games, no HR's, no power at all. He doesn't even make hard hit outs.
Hayes sucks.
But but but the Hayes apologists love that defense!! Dude has 5 hits in 10 games, no HR's, no power at all. He doesn't even make hard hit outs.
Hayes sucks.
Last edited:
You’re starting to sound like Mark Madden, rooting for the kid to fail just so that your point will be proven.
You don't know what you're talking about. I was excited as hell when he signed the long term deal and I thought he would be a really good player both offensively and defensively here. After 2 going on 3 seasons watching him I have lost the excitement. Now I expect him to suck and unfortunately he does.
They have tried to quantify this for a while, giving positive z values and negative to a slew of situational analysis.
When I went to the SABR analytics conference several years ago I remember a cool presentation by someone whos team analyzed play by play from every game since around the 60s and came up with scores. It showed Barry Bonds was one of the least clutch hitters of all time.
I just looked it up, here is the article on it (geez its been 5 years ago):
Prospectus Feature: A Revised Look at Clutch Hitting (Part 2) | Baseball Prospectus
Is clutch hitting an identifiable and replicable skill?
They have tried to quantify this for a while, giving positive z values and negative to a slew of situational analysis.
When I went to the SABR analytics conference several years ago I remember a cool presentation by someone whos team analyzed play by play from every game since around the 60s and came up with scores. It showed Barry Bonds was one of the least clutch hitters of all time.
I just looked it up, here is the article on it (geez its been 5 years ago):
Prospectus Feature: A Revised Look at Clutch Hitting (Part 2) | Baseball Prospectus
Is clutch hitting an identifiable and replicable skill?www.baseballprospectus.com
Notice some of the quotes in that article.
"This analysis, which builds on Pete Palmer’s and Dick Cramer's research from the 1970s with a much more robust data set, illustrates continued difficulty in identifying clutch hitting as a replicable skill."
"Again, this is not to say the clutch hitting does not exist."
"However we found no evidence that clutch hitting is a replicable skill."
"We therefore echo Cramer’s conclusion from 41 years ago that while clutch hitting may exist as a feature, it does not exist as a repeatable skill."
What does this have to do though with Hayes hitting .125 and an OPS of .321?
Nothing really, we got into a side topic because I was curious
Or maybe - ya know
Stop being so distraught by everything and running to the internet to pick your scabs ?!?
he's climbing, now he's at .159.. a few more good games and he's approaching the mendoza line..
guys, he's a really good glove in the field who will be a .250 career hitter. he is what he is. in this day and age, you take that. now we just need to get him on a month or two hot streak to get his average up to .250..
guys, he's a really good glove in the field who will be a .250 career hitter. he is what he is. in this day and age, you take that. now we just need to get him on a month or two hot streak to get his average up to .250..
Yeah. Like... I get wanting more offensive production from him. But it's way way too early in the season for so much consternation over his batting average. And as I noted, he's been above league average the past two years. So I definitely anticipate that happening again this year.
The bitter Pirates fan in me prevents me from believing Bonds was clutch, at least come time for post-season.
I don't know Joe. Jason Bay seemed like the master of the 3 run HR coming in the 7th inning of games where the Pirates were up 7-2 or down 9-2.
Hey. I'm not the one making wild (and false) claims based on like three games.
Better than league average each of the past two seasons.
I wouldn't disagree with you if you said his offensive was disappointing. It is! But calling him a bust is wrong and ludicrous.
I mean if your argument is that a good player on some really bad teams tended to hit more home runs when his team was losing, well, yeah, sure, absolutely.
Was there anyone on those Pirate teams who came through with a ton of clutch hits on a regular basis? Isn't that a large part of the reason that they were so bad, that they didn't actually have enough good players to keep from being way behind on a regular basis?
Man, Hayes has really heated up over the last week.
And as far as tonight, I don’t know what stats geeks would say, but he’s made a couple defensive picks at 3rd that have saved a couple runs. Pirates are likely losing this 4-3 game if he wasn’t over there.
And as far as tonight, I don’t know what stats geeks would say, but he’s made a couple defensive picks at 3rd that have saved a couple runs. Pirates are likely losing this 4-3 game if he wasn’t over there.
Hayes just made another spectacular play to save a run. He’s just so ridiculously good defensively that even at his .225 average or whatever he’s at - that contract is going to be such a bargain. If he hits like .270 or something, maybe 10-15 home runs, it could be a top 5 team favorable contract in baseball. He’s that good on Defense
well he's up to .224% and is arguably the best glove at 3rd base in the NL. he's never gonna hit for power, would be a miracle if he hit double digit home runs but we didnt sign him for his power.
If he can be a .240 hitter, with his defense, that contract is a bargain. his OBP is weak though, under .300. if he is gonna stay at lead off, he has to learn to take some walks and get on base. a lead off hitter with a sub .300 On base % is killer.
If he can be a .240 hitter, with his defense, that contract is a bargain. his OBP is weak though, under .300. if he is gonna stay at lead off, he has to learn to take some walks and get on base. a lead off hitter with a sub .300 On base % is killer.
on a 7 game hit streak right now and playing gold glove defense. He won the game last night with the double play he started
No doubt. He doesn’t play, they lose. Simple as that. Does baseball use a wins above replacement stat and is defense a part of it? Not sure how you quantify those two gems he had last night.
I love how some of you go at me for "cherry picking" a bad week of his awful hitting but the same people can't wait to run back into this thread and proclaim how amazing he is because of a great defensive play he made 2 days ago lol.
Too funny. Look the dude sucks as a hitter and has little to no power at all. It's obvious all the people that know he isn't good at the plate will over emphasize his defense because they want to justify this contract he got. Whatever.
I'm sure the same bunch on here think the Pirates should sign Reynolds to that 9 figure big 6 year contract too, even though he is another one for long long stretches does nothing at the plate. He stunk most of last season, and after his amazing first week he's hitting under .200 in his last 53 plate appearances. His only extra base hit is a double. He's 0 for his last 10 and 10 for his last 53. But yeah, let's get him signed for $20+ million dollars a season for 6 straight years!! And watch him hit under .200 for months like he did last season and probably will again this season lol.
Too funny. Look the dude sucks as a hitter and has little to no power at all. It's obvious all the people that know he isn't good at the plate will over emphasize his defense because they want to justify this contract he got. Whatever.
I'm sure the same bunch on here think the Pirates should sign Reynolds to that 9 figure big 6 year contract too, even though he is another one for long long stretches does nothing at the plate. He stunk most of last season, and after his amazing first week he's hitting under .200 in his last 53 plate appearances. His only extra base hit is a double. He's 0 for his last 10 and 10 for his last 53. But yeah, let's get him signed for $20+ million dollars a season for 6 straight years!! And watch him hit under .200 for months like he did last season and probably will again this season lol.
I love poker ♥️. He adds spice.
I like SMF & Bball insider too. It takes all kinds.
I just wouldn't want to get on Pokers bad side if I knew him personally lol
Hayes with two hits including a triple tonight. Another potential game saving play on defense in the 9th.
You can make a good case he’s the best pirate defensive player in decades.
So fun watching him and the Bucs this year. What a bargain that contract is (lol Poker j/k…although you can’t help but like this team - it is a fun group.)
You can make a good case he’s the best pirate defensive player in decades.
So fun watching him and the Bucs this year. What a bargain that contract is (lol Poker j/k…although you can’t help but like this team - it is a fun group.)
I love posters where you at least know their style.
Love the message or hate it but you know it’s them.
Beats the vanilla boring ass “everyone is great, let’s trust the coach they know more then us” nonsense that isn’t even worth replying too.
Pittsburgh Pirates on Instagram: "YOUNG HAYES MAKES PLAYS 👀"
4,614 likes, 50 comments - Pittsburgh Pirates (@pittsburghpirates) on Instagram: "YOUNG HAYES MAKES PLAYS 👀"
www.instagram.com
