OT: Steelers and NFL 1st round hits/misses

[Fk_Pitt]

thinking about Artie Burns this AM and how the Steelers will have a decision on whether to give him his option year. The Steelers had the same predicament with Bud Dupree and Jarvis Jones (I think). So that’s three recent #1 picks who didn’t come in and light the world on fire. However, other #1’s like Heyward, Watt and Shazier showed to be at least above average players.

Given that the Steeler’s #1 pick is normally in the 20’s, I wonder what is an acceptable success rate would be with their #1 picks.

Anyone have thoughts?

 

[joeydavid]

thinking about Artie Burns this AM and how the Steelers will have a decision on whether to give him his option year. The Steelers had the same predicament with Bud Dupree and Jarvis Jones (I think). So that’s three recent #1 picks who didn’t come in and light the world on fire. However, other #1’s like Heyward, Watt and Shazier showed to be at least above average players.

Given that the Steeler’s #1 pick is normally in the 20’s, I wonder what is an acceptable success rate would be with their #1 picks.

Anyone have thoughts?

When you take underclassmen you are talking more risk and are forced to make decisions on them sooner.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

When you take underclassmen you are talking more risk and are forced to make decisions on them sooner.

That’s a good point. And it’s probably directly related to where the Steelers pick in the draft.

The Dolphins have a corner who they drafted a few spots after Artie Burns who has not been very good but is now having a breakout season. Wondering if he was a junior or senior coming out of college. I’ll look it up.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

That’s a good point. And it’s probably directly related to where the Steelers pick in the draft.

The Dolphins have a corner who they drafted a few spots after Artie Burns who has not been very good but is now having a breakout season. Wondering if he was a junior or senior coming out of college. I’ll look it up.

Ok. Xavien Howard from the Dolphins was also a junior in the same draft as Burns and picked #38 overall. Some guys develop. Others do not. Hopefully it will click with Artie.

 

[McKee Place]

He might be shaping up as a bust but can't be too critical of the pick. It was / is a position of severe need. He had projected to be good.

Before making full judgement, I'd have to learn more of the inside story...was he a big pothead, or history of stupid troublemaking things (not violent ones... frankly you actually want that...but, missing meetings, insubordination, etc) And did the Steelers know, did they take a flyer anyway etc... that's when you can render a verdict on their wisdom. If/when they give up on Burns, i imagine the Steelers will collude with their media buddies to report trash like this on him, to save face. But the timing of when it happened and if they knew will be important. If the dude was a waste of life in most aspects, and you knew, then you shouldn't be surprised when he flamed out. It's similar to how WVU crazies never really fulfilled their significant talents in the league. It catches up to you.

Just by observation of the size, accomplishments, where does he play etc., this year's pick is more questionable, imo. As a first rounder anyway.

 

[FurioGiunta]

Honestly, I think playing CB is the toughest job on defense. Often, you are left on an island and if you get used, it’s apparent to everyone. Also, you need to have confidence playing CB, and the only way to gain confidence is by playing well and building on it. I think Artie might be good as a #3 Mike Hilton slot CB.

 

[pittdan77]

He might be shaping up as a bust but can't be too critical of the pick. It was / is a position of severe need. He had projected to be good.

Before making full judgement, I'd have to learn more of the inside story...was he a big pothead, or history of stupid troublemaking things (not violent ones... frankly you actually want that...but, missing meetings, insubordination, etc) And did the Steelers know, did they take a flyer anyway etc... that's when you can render a verdict on their wisdom. If/when they give up on Burns, i imagine the Steelers will collude with their media buddies to report trash like this on him, to save face. But the timing of when it happened and if they knew will be important. If the dude was a waste of life in most aspects, and you knew, then you shouldn't be surprised when he flamed out. It's similar to how WVU crazies never really fulfilled their significant talents in the league. It catches up to you.

Just by observation of the size, accomplishments, where does he play etc., this year's pick is more questionable, imo. As a first rounder anyway.

No. He's not a "pothead" or a "waste of life". Geez.

He's a physical corner who was a top prospect in HS and had all of the measurable to be a good NFL CB. His problem has been in run support more than anything. The Steelers tend to ask a lot of their CB's in that regard.

Edmunds is another story. He was a projected third rounder and the Steelers reached.

 

[WiseAndGlorious]

thinking about Artie Burns this AM and how the Steelers will have a decision on whether to give him his option year. The Steelers had the same predicament with Bud Dupree and Jarvis Jones (I think). So that’s three recent #1 picks who didn’t come in and light the world on fire. However, other #1’s like Heyward, Watt and Shazier showed to be at least above average players.

Given that the Steeler’s #1 pick is normally in the 20’s, I wonder what is an acceptable success rate would be with their #1 picks.

Anyone have thoughts?

I think they do as good as (or better than) anyone in the league with 1st rounders considering where they pick. Starting with Faneca in 1998 through Edmunds in 2018 they have taken 21 players and 10 of them have made the Pro Bowl.

They do well when they trust the "best player available" approach. When everyone was saying they needed a LB, they jump on DeCastro when he fell. After getting shredded by Rogers in the Super Bowl, everyone was saying that they needed a CB and they took Heyward when he fell.

Those recent picks have seemed more driven by need. They needed a CB when they took Burns, but the guy they seemed to like got picked one slot earlier. Was Burns really next on their board? Same with Jarvis Jones. He did fall from where some had him pegged, but he also had pretty pedestrian combine numbers and was undersized, but they were desperate for an OLB after Woodley left.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I think they do as good as (or better than) anyone in the league with 1st rounders considering where they pick. Starting with Faneca in 1998 through Edmunds in 2018 they have taken 21 players and 10 of them have made the Pro Bowl.

They do well when they trust the "best player available" approach. When everyone was saying they needed a LB, they jump on DeCastro when he fell. After getting shredded by Rogers in the Super Bowl, everyone was saying that they needed a CB and they took Heyward when he fell.

Those recent picks have seemed more driven by need. They needed a CB when they took Burns, but the guy they seemed to like got picked one slot earlier. Was Burns really next on their board? Same with Jarvis Jones. He did fall from where some had him pegged, but he also had pretty pedestrian combine numbers and was undersized, but they were desperate for an OLB after Woodley left.

Great post. Thanks

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

The Patriots and Steelers are big believers in best player available, or at least best player available who can fit into their culture. They also won a lot of games over the last 20 years (yes even when Brady and Ben are injured or suspended they won most of their games.)

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Jarvis was the bizarro Manula pick. Usually you hear about players who get picked based on great combine numbers despite mediocre college success.

Jones had great numbers in college, at an sec school but bad combine numbers. Everyone always say that how they look at these combined are irrelevant. Maybe not.

 

[WiseAndGlorious]

Jarvis was the bizarro Manula pick. Usually you hear about players who get picked based on great combine numbers despite mediocre college success.

Jones had great numbers in college, at an sec school but bad combine numbers. Everyone always say that how they look at these combined are irrelevant. Maybe not.

Yeah, but I think that the SEC thing works for and against a player. Sure he was going up against good players, but he also had some pretty good players on his side. He was one of 7 UGA defenders picked that draft. Maybe he wasn't a great college player, but a good one playing on a great defense. When 3 of 4 DBs on his defense are good enough to be drafted, maybe he is getting that extra second to make a play without great athleticism or pass rush technique. He probably wasn't dropping into coverage that often either.

 

[Jpripper88]

I think they do as good as (or better than) anyone in the league with 1st rounders considering where they pick. Starting with Faneca in 1998 through Edmunds in 2018 they have taken 21 players and 10 of them have made the Pro Bowl.

They do well when they trust the "best player available" approach. When everyone was saying they needed a LB, they jump on DeCastro when he fell. After getting shredded by Rogers in the Super Bowl, everyone was saying that they needed a CB and they took Heyward when he fell.

Those recent picks have seemed more driven by need. They needed a CB when they took Burns, but the guy they seemed to like got picked one slot earlier. Was Burns really next on their board? Same with Jarvis Jones. He did fall from where some had him pegged, but he also had pretty pedestrian combine numbers and was undersized, but they were desperate for an OLB after Woodley left.

I agree with this. I definitely wanted Jackson, but he was off the board. Artie Burns has been a liability against the pass and definitely against the run. It is hard to see them exercising his 5th year. However, when you look at that 2016 draft, over the next 20 picks there are not many hits. Most of the players are flops, were injured going into the draft, and/or real questionable fits for the Steelers at the time.

 

[WiseAndGlorious]

I agree with this. I definitely wanted Jackson, but he was off the board. Artie Burns has been a liability against the pass and definitely against the run. It is hard to see them exercising his 5th year. However, when you look at that 2016 draft, over the next 20 picks there are not many hits. Most of the players are flops, were injured going into the draft, and/or real questionable fits for the Steelers at the time.

I liked Jackson too. But when he was gone I was hoping for Myles Jack. I don't know if he would fit, but he was a heck of a player in college and was talked about as a top 5 pick.

 

[NCanton Panther]

He might be shaping up as a bust but can't be too critical of the pick. It was / is a position of severe need. He had projected to be good.

Before making full judgement, I'd have to learn more of the inside story...was he a big pothead, or history of stupid troublemaking things (not violent ones... frankly you actually want that...but, missing meetings, insubordination, etc) And did the Steelers know, did they take a flyer anyway etc... that's when you can render a verdict on their wisdom. If/when they give up on Burns, i imagine the Steelers will collude with their media buddies to report trash like this on him, to save face. But the timing of when it happened and if they knew will be important. If the dude was a waste of life in most aspects, and you knew, then you shouldn't be surprised when he flamed out. It's similar to how WVU crazies never really fulfilled their significant talents in the league. It catches up to you.

Just by observation of the size, accomplishments, where does he play etc., this year's pick is more questionable, imo. As a first rounder anyway.

Refresh my memory, what trash did the Steelers and the media collude on to explain why they let Jarvis go?

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Refresh my memory, what trash did the Steelers and the media collude on to explain why they let Jarvis go?

he sucked. no collusion needed,

 

[McKee Place]

No. He's not a "pothead" or a "waste of life". Geez.

He's a physical corner who was a top prospect in HS and had all of the measurable to be a good NFL CB. His problem has been in run support more than anything. The Steelers tend to ask a lot of their CB's in that regard.

Edmunds is another story. He was a projected third rounder and the Steelers reached.

I don't know if he is (or was in college) or not. I hope the Steelers knew. And if he was, and they took him anyway, they shouldn't be surprised.

 

[LeftCoastPanther]

The Jones pick was so bad. He had so many negatives: chicken-wing shoulders, he was 24 years old, had some spine issue and most of his sacks never came when being blocked by an SEC tackle, rather when blocked by a fullback. I think NFL punters could block him rather easily. It's no shock he's out of the league.

I do remember PIT being linked to Clemson receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, in that draft. That would have been nice.

 

[Jpripper88]

I liked Jackson too. But when he was gone I was hoping for Myles Jack. I don't know if he would fit, but he was a heck of a player in college and was talked about as a top 5 pick.

Agreed, Jack or Smith from ND would have been interesting options, who were still available, but they were also hurt and neither a slam dunk 3-4 positional fit, especially after taking Shazier in 2014.

 

[NCanton Panther]

he sucked. no collusion needed,

As none would be needed with Artie Burns either.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

As none would be needed with Artie Burns either.

no argument there.

 

[lilspainishflea]

As others have mentioned, the Steelers have been at a huge disadvantage picking 15-32 for the last 15 years. It's harder to consistently find difference makers at those picks but the Steelers have done it numerous times (Heath Miller at 30, Santonio Holmes at 25, Pouncey at 18, Heyward at 31, DeCastro at 24, TJ Watt at 30). It is especially difficult to find pass rushers and CB - those guys typically don't just fall to pick 22. Also in defense of Kevin Colbert, in the years he's missed on 1st round picks, there really wasn't much else to choose from and his OLB/CB picks were at positions of dire need, especially OLB where we randomly lost a decent starter like Jason Worilds to retirement. For example:

2013, pick 17, Jarvis Jones - could have taken Eric Reid or Xavier Rhodes here, although Safety wasn't seen as much of a need because we still had Clark and Polamalu
2015, pick 22, Bud Dupree - rumor is we targeted Marcus Peters but KC traded up for him, only 1 player (Landon Collins) in the next 45 picks has made a Pro Bowl. Just a bad draft to be picking outside the top 18
2016, pick 25, Artie Burns - Cinci traded up to take William Jackson, who a lot of people thought was our target. Jaylon Smith had to sit an entire year due to injury, so he wouldn't have helped immediately. Myles Jack has been good but also inconsistent. Looks like we missed on Howard. So maybe 2 players we should have taken here over the next 15 picks. Not exactly swimming in riches.
​

Keep in mind also that this defense has been missed Ryan Shazier for 12 games. Had he just torn an ACL instead of suffering a likely career-ending injury, he'd be close to returning and this defense would look totally different. I think it's fair to criticize Colbert at times, but his entire body of work is excellent, especially given that he hasn't picked in the top 10 since 2000 (Ravens have had 3 of those picks, Bengals 8, and the Browns have had 12 such picks).

 

[Pitt79]

Given that the Steeler’s #1 pick is normally in the 20’s, I wonder what is an acceptable success rate would be with their #1 picks.

Anyone have thoughts?

I think it should be better than what they have, higher than 50%. You're selecting from the top 32 players in the entire country. I think they should just go best player available instead of take the 6th best LB because they want a LB. Like this year, we'll see how it goes, but some people projected our most recent #1 pick as a 3rd rounder. Sometimes, I also get the sense, they think they are trying to outsmart someone. Shazier turned out well, but Ravens picked Mosby right after him, and he was higher ranked and just as good. Who knows? but I think 50% is low.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

I want to label Dupree a bust but every time I give up on him, he makes a decent play. I’m not saying he’s good, or even avg, I’m just saying there still remains a tiny glimmer of hope that he could be something.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

I think it should be better than what they have, higher than 50%. You're selecting from the top 32 players in the entire country. I think they should just go best player available instead of take the 6th best LB because they want a LB. Like this year, we'll see how it goes, but some people projected our most recent #1 pick as a 3rd rounder. Sometimes, I also get the sense, they think they are trying to outsmart someone. Shazier turned out well, but Ravens picked Mosby right after him, and he was higher ranked and just as good. Who knows? but I think 50% is low.

I thought Mosley went right before shazier? It seems like the ravens always get the player highest on the steeler board right before the Steelers pick.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

I want to label Dupree a bust but every time I give up on him, he makes a decent play. I’m not saying he’s good, or even avg, I’m just saying there still remains a tiny glimmer of hope that he could be something.

He’s much better on the right side.

He’s not a bust .
Frankly , burns has stunk lately - but he’s not a bust - yet.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

He’s much better on the right side.

He’s not a bust .
Frankly , burns has stunk lately - but he’s not a bust - yet.

Dude just rushes wide every time and takes himself out of the play 97% of the time. Takes that wide angle on tackle and the qb just steps up one step and Dupree is out of it.

Again, every time I say this though he makes a good play. We need him, that’s for sure.

 

[WiseAndGlorious]

I think it should be better than what they have, higher than 50%. You're selecting from the top 32 players in the entire country. I think they should just go best player available instead of take the 6th best LB because they want a LB. Like this year, we'll see how it goes, but some people projected our most recent #1 pick as a 3rd rounder. Sometimes, I also get the sense, they think they are trying to outsmart someone. Shazier turned out well, but Ravens picked Mosby right after him, and he was higher ranked and just as good. Who knows? but I think 50% is low.

Better than 50% turning out to be Pro Bowlers? What team has done that over the last 20 years? That doesn’t include guys like Holmes or Burress who were still productive players. Or Watt who has been good and may get there. Over that period I’d say Jones and Hood were the only true busts. Mendenhall and Edwards were simply overdrafted based upon need but not bad. Kendall Simmons was good before his health issues.

 

[Pitt79]

Better than 50% turning out to be Pro Bowlers? What team has done that over the last 20 years? That doesn’t include guys like Holmes or Burress who were still productive players. Or Watt who has been good and may get there. Over that period I’d say Jones and Hood were the only true busts. Mendenhall and Edwards were simply overdrafted based upon need but not bad. Kendall Simmons was good before his health issues.

I'm talking about the last 7-8 years.

 

[NCanton Panther]

He’s much better on the right side.

He’s not a bust .
Frankly , burns has stunk lately - but he’s not a bust - yet.

Neither Dupree or Burns are busts yet but they are leaning in that direction. What you can say is that they currently fall short of what you expect or hope for from a 1st round pick, even if late 1st round. Watt fits the description of what you expect from a late 1st round pick, not lights out good or pro bowl caliber like you might expect from an earlier 1st round pick but has definitely shown he can be and is a consistent contributor when on the field.

 

[Pitt79]

I thought Mosley went right before shazier? It seems like the ravens always get the player highest on the steeler board right before the Steelers pick.

No, Mosley was 2 picks later.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/draft.htm

 

[lilspainishflea]

Better than 50% turning out to be Pro Bowlers? What team has done that over the last 20 years? That doesn’t include guys like Holmes or Burress who were still productive players. Or Watt who has been good and may get there. Over that period I’d say Jones and Hood were the only true busts. Mendenhall and Edwards were simply overdrafted based upon need but not bad. Kendall Simmons was good before his health issues.

And Mendenhall wasn't even terrible. Had 2 nice years and 1 average year with some TERRIBLE offensive lines. Had guys like Trai Essex, Jonathan Scott, and Tony Hills blocking for him. If he had the current OL, he probably would have cracked 1,500 yards.

 

[wbrpanther]

thinking about Artie Burns this AM and how the Steelers will have a decision on whether to give him his option year. The Steelers had the same predicament with Bud Dupree and Jarvis Jones (I think). So that’s three recent #1 picks who didn’t come in and light the world on fire. However, other #1’s like Heyward, Watt and Shazier showed to be at least above average players.

Given that the Steeler’s #1 pick is normally in the 20’s, I wonder what is an acceptable success rate would be with their #1 picks.

Anyone have thoughts?

As a first rounder the option comes in the 5th year. But the draft is certainly a crap shoot. Not just for the Steelers but for everybody. Like the Browns passing on Ben to take the “soldier” Kellen Winslow. This is why I would have been in favor of trading our #1for Patrick Peterson.

 

[jtownknowitall]

I want to label Dupree a bust but every time I give up on him, he makes a decent play. I’m not saying he’s good, or even avg, I’m just saying there still remains a tiny glimmer of hope that he could be something.

Busts don't start 22 consecutive games for NFL playoff teams.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Busts don't start 22 consecutive games for NFL playoff teams.

Right
Big difference bust and not a star.
If you’re a starter you aren’t a bust.

 

[LeftCoastPanther]

I want to label Dupree a bust but every time I give up on him, he makes a decent play. I’m not saying he’s good, or even avg, I’m just saying there still remains a tiny glimmer of hope that he could be something.

I’m not sure if I want the Steelers to keep the fifth-year option on Dupree for $9-plus million or rescind the tag after the season. He’s not really worth that amount but then again if you let him walk that is another spot now needing filled.