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OT: The Steelers playoff scenario is simple now: 6-way parlay

UPitt '89

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If these 6 things happen, the Steelers are in the playoffs:

This week:
1. NE over MIA (or a tie)
2. SEA over NYJ (or a tie)
3. PIT over BAL

Next week:
4. PIT over CLE
5. BUF over NE (or a tie)
6. NYJ over MIA (or a tie)

Those six games are literally the ONLY games that matter to the Steelers the rest of the season. No other game matters. If ANY of those six don't go the Steelers' way, they are out.

Note: With Tua back in concussion protocol, and Mike White cleared for the Jets.... the odds of MIA losing both games are higher now.

Note 2: The four games not involving the Steelers can also end in a tie, and that works for the Steelers too. As long as BOTH Miami games don't end in a tie, only one of them.
 
Note: If the Steelers had beaten the Ravens a couple weeks ago... The Steelers would be 8-7, Baltimore would be 9-6, and the Steelers would control their own destiny - making the playoffs simply by winning the final two games.

The 3-red-zone-interception game by Trubisky was HUGE.
 
If these 6 things happen, the Steelers are in the playoffs:

This week:
1. NE over MIA (or a tie)
2. SEA over NYJ (or a tie)
3. PIT over BAL

Next week:
4. PIT over CLE
5. BUF over NE (or a tie)
6. NYJ over MIA (or a tie)

Those six games are literally the ONLY games that matter to the Steelers the rest of the season. No other game matters. If ANY of those six don't go the Steelers' way, they are out.

Note: With Tua back in concussion protocol, and Mike White cleared for the Jets.... the odds of MIA losing both games are higher now.

Note 2: The four games not involving the Steelers can also end in a tie, and that works for the Steelers too. As long as BOTH Miami games don't end in a tie, only one of them.
Thanks for doing the math so I don't waste my time watching games like tonight....woof
 
Visual aid:

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Lines:

This Week (DraftKings):

NE (-2.5) over MIA
SEA (+2.5) over NYJ
PIT (+3) over BAL

Next week (my guesses):

BUF (-10) over NE
NYJ (pick) over MIA (without Tua)... NYJ (+3) over MIA (with Tua)
PIT (-3) over CLE
 
Thanks for simplifying this; if both Miami and the Jets win on Sunday, the Steelers are eliminated before their game even kicks off. That won't make for much fun watching the now flexed game. Other than beating the Ratbirds of course
 
Thanks for simplifying this; if both Miami and the Jets win on Sunday, the Steelers are eliminated before their game even kicks off. That won't make for much fun watching the now flexed game. Other than beating the Ratbirds of course
Sure it will because we can all root for what’s most important…

Tomlin’s streak.

The Steelers control their own destiny!
 
It would be kind of fitting, if, after 2 decades of Pittsburghs favorite rapist ruining Clevelands hopes every year, they returned the favor with their serial sexual predator eliminating the Steelers.
 
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Thanks for simplifying this; if both Miami and the Jets win on Sunday, the Steelers are eliminated before their game even kicks off. That won't make for much fun watching the now flexed game. Other than beating the Ratbirds of course
It’s not ‘both Miami and Jets win on Sunday’ it’s if either of them win and the Steelers are eliminated.
 
It’s not ‘both Miami and Jets win on Sunday’ it’s if either of them win and the Steelers are eliminated.
TECHNICALLY.... if the Jets win over Seattle .... but then the Jets and Dolphins tie in Week 18.... the Steelers would still get in. Jets and Dolphins would both be 8-8-1 in that case.
 
TECHNICALLY.... if the Jets win over Seattle .... but then the Jets and Dolphins tie in Week 18.... the Steelers would still get in. Jets and Dolphins would both be 8-8-1 in that case.
Yeah forgot about the tie option.

That would be a reversal from last year, having to root for a Jets-Dolphins tie whereas it was anything but a tie in the Chargers-Raiders game last year and, if course, that came very close to being a tie.
 
Do the jets have incentive to beat Miami in the final week if they lose in Seattle?
Probably as much incentive as the Bengals did against the Ravens a couple weeks ago. Just have to hope they get up one more time to play a division rival.
 
Do the jets have incentive to beat Miami in the final week if they lose in Seattle?
Mike White, the QB, has incentive to do well. Saleh might be coaching for his job.


Last year the Jags had no incentive against Indianapolis on the final week.... but the Steelers got that result that they needed.
 
So my choices are an unbelievable series of circumstances coming together so the Steelers can get curb stomped by KC again or a franchise missing the playoffs and hopefully seeing Canada and is clowns get fired? Boy, I don't know.
They might not get curb-stomped by KC. They could be matched up with Buffalo or Cincy.... and get curb-stomped by them instead.
 
Yet another year of this… 2015 and last season they needed help and happened to get it. Then other years they came close like 2018 with the Ravens just barely beating Cleveland to knock them out of the playoff picture, and then I feel like there was one year probably around a decade ago by now where there was some crazy OT game with a field goal involved I think between KC and the Chargers that ended their hopes.

It’s all kind of exhausting and sort of feels like maybe we’d have been better off just losing a few more games for better draft position. But I just can’t really root for them to lose, especially with Pickett playing.

As for the close losses and what if’s though… it goes both ways. Most of the losses have been close, but all of their wins were close too with extra luck in Cincy week 1.
 
The fact the Steelers franchise has gotten us to the point where "there's a chance" is sad. It was organizational suicide to just sit and watch Ben deteriorate and do nothing to improve the offense in a meaningful way. Then they topped it with promoting from within, again, to run this putrid offense. Regardless of the outcome, Rooney's need to force some changes. They'll never fire Tomlin so something else has to give.
 
The fact the Steelers franchise has gotten us to the point where "there's a chance" is sad. It was organizational suicide to just sit and watch Ben deteriorate and do nothing to improve the offense in a meaningful way. Then they topped it with promoting from within, again, to run this putrid offense. Regardless of the outcome, Rooney's need to force some changes. They'll never fire Tomlin so something else has to give.
To be "in the hunt" in a rebuilding year... the first year after your hall-of-fame QB retired....and with a rookie QB.... is actually a heck of a performance.

Most teams have 3-14 or 5-12 records in their rebuilding years. This was always going to be a "bridge" year as we get a rookie QB acclimated to the NFL.

2023 will see massive improvement... and 2024 will be when the window to actually contend opens.
 
To be "in the hunt" in a rebuilding year... the first year after your hall-of-fame QB retired....and with a rookie QB.... is actually a heck of a performance.

Most teams have 3-14 or 5-12 records in their rebuilding years. This was always going to be a "bridge" year as we get a rookie QB acclimated to the NFL.

2023 will see massive improvement... and 2024 will be when the window to actually contend opens.
'In the hunt" for what? A mediocre season in the same draft position they have had for 15 years. That's what you call " in the hunt?"

This team needs impact players.

2023 will see a "massive improvement"? How do you figure? They have a young offense with a questionable O-line and a defense with problems. Their best defensive lineman is 34 years old. Their D-line is mostly bad and old. They need an impact middle linebacker and have secondary issues that goes with mediocre draft picks. They invested major bucks on a linebacker that when healthy is a force but has shown to have injury issues.

I love KP, but his game right now is safety passes and 10 yard TE hookups with an occasional downfield toss. Until he learns to trust his receivers will be open after they appear to be covered he will continue to play safe with the passing game. KP is at best the 4th best QB in the division that the Steelers compete in. Do you see him surpassing any of the others in the next 2 years? The Steelers averaged 20.2 points per game this year. Only 3 teams did worse. You don't win in the NFL kicking FGs. Let's hope he raises his game to compete with what the other division foes can counter. I think Kenny will eventually be a good QB in the league. But he has a ways to go.

Contention in two years? For what? A first round loss? This team hasn't contended for anything worth noting for over 10 years. Teams go in droughts. The Dallas Cowboys haven't been to the NFC Championship game since 1995. Your "bridge year" looked more like the Fern Hollow bridge for the most part. They beat bad teams to get 7 wins. You're enthusiastic progress is masked by playing crappy teams. They got lucky against the Bungles the first game of the season..
 
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The fact the Steelers franchise has gotten us to the point where "there's a chance" is sad. It was organizational suicide to just sit and watch Ben deteriorate and do nothing to improve the offense in a meaningful way. Then they topped it with promoting from within, again, to run this putrid offense. Regardless of the outcome, Rooney's need to force some changes. They'll never fire Tomlin so something else has to give.
The 7th playoff spot artificially gives fans hope when in the past they’d normally have been out of the picture the first week of December. I’m sure owners love the 7th playoff spot just like NHL owners love the overtime loser point. So I won’t see it as an accomplishment at all. What’s the difference between 8-9 and 9-8? But I would embrace it for Kenny and an extra week of game prep and playoff experience.

If the Steelers somehow make the playoffs, it will be as the annual sacrificial lamb, and they won’t be any closer to being a super bowl contender than any of the mediocre teams they beat out for that last spot.
 
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The 7th playoff spot artificially gives fans hope when in the past they’d normally have been out of the picture the first week of December. I’m sure owners love the 7th playoff spot just like NHL owners love the overtime loser point. So I won’t see it as an accomplishment at all. What’s the difference between 8-9 and 9-8? But I would embrace it for Kenny and an extra week of game prep and playoff experience.

If the Steelers somehow make the playoffs, it will be as the annual sacrificial lamb, and they won’t be any closer to being a super bowl contender than any of the mediocre teams they beat out for that last spot.
The hockey loser point is bull shite. You lose, you should get nothing and like it. Period.
 
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'In the hunt" for what? A mediocre season in the same draft position they have had for 15 years. That's what you call " in the hunt?"

This team needs impact players.

2023 will see a "massive improvement"? How do you figure? They have a young offense with a questionable O-line and a defense with problems. Their best defensive lineman is 34 years old. Their D-line is mostly bad and old. They need an impact middle linebacker and have secondary issues that goes with mediocre draft picks. They invested major bucks on a linebacker that when healthy is a force but has shown to have injury issues.

I love KP, but his game right now is safety passes and 10 yard TE hookups with an occasional downfield toss. Until he learns to trust his receivers will be open after they appear to be covered he will continue to play safe with the passing game. KP is at best the 4th best QB in the division that the Steelers compete in. Do you see him surpassing any of the others in the next 2 years? The Steelers averaged 20.2 points per game this year. Only 3 teams did worse. You don't win in the NFL kicking FGs. Let's hope he raises his game to compete with what the other division foes can counter. I think Kenny will eventually be a good QB in the league. But he has a ways to go.

Contention in two years? For what? A first round loss? This team hasn't contended for anything worth noting for over 10 years. Teams go in droughts. The Dallas Cowboys haven't been to the NFC Championship game since 1995. Your "bridge year" looked more like the Fern Hollow bridge for the most part. They beat bad teams to get 7 wins. You're enthusiastic progress is masked by playing crappy teams. They got lucky against the Bungles the first game of the season..
So much wrong in this post, let's address it point by point.

"In the hunt" for what? A mediocre season in the same draft position they have had for 15 years. That's what you call " in the hunt?"

Mathetmatically alive for a post-season spot with two games remaining. It's not what *I* call "in the hunt".... it is a mathematical fact.

2023 will see a "massive improvement"? How do you figure?

I already explained this, but I will again. The Steelers are *WAY* under the salary cap for next year and have lots of room to maneuver to address their pressing needs. They also will have 3 of the first 45 or so picks in the draft. The will use those, plus the millions they have under the cap to spend, to shore up the OL, MLB, DL, and get a 3rd quality WR.

I love KP, but his game right now is safety passes and 10 yard TE hookups with an occasional downfield toss. Until he learns to trust his receivers will be open after they appear to be covered he will continue to play safe with the passing game.

You say he needs to learn to trust his receivers. But last week you said he should be shut down for the season.

How do you propose he "learns" anything?

As for his progress. If you haven't seen the stready and consistently upward progress in his game from when he first entered the Jets game to today, then I seriously question your ability to evaluate the game of football. All that steady progress has come *BECAUSE* he has been playing. "Fans" who wanted to shut him down despite him being 100% medically cleared to play are, frankly, clueless about the development of NFL QBs and how important these live games are.

KP is at best the 4th best QB in the division that the Steelers compete in.

He's already the 3rd best QB in the division. Do you seriously place Deshaun Watson ahead of him? Have you watched Deshaun Watson play the past 4 weeks since he came back?

The Steelers averaged 20.2 points per game this year. Only 3 teams did worse.

Yes. That's a function of a rookie QB learning the ropes. The investment in games played this year will begin to pay off in 2023.... as I've said before, NFL QBs make their greatest leap forward in their 2nd year as a starter. We've seen it over and over and over again. All the more reason all of these games this year MATTER for KP's development as an NFL QB and why it was an absolutely ridiculous notion to "shelve" him for the final 3 games of the year.

I think Kenny will eventually be a good QB in the league. But he has a ways to go.

All the more reason it was imperative to play him as much as possible this year, and it frankly should have started in training camp with him as the #1. His development would be miles further if they had done so. As it is, his development is coming along very nicely. He also has a lot less "ways to go" than you think. And the experts agree with me..... not Joe Bag o' Donuts from Altoona - but real NFL analysts.

Contention in two years? For what? A first round loss?

No. 2023 will be the "first round loss" year. Pittsburgh will be an 11-12 win team next year. 2024 will be the year to begin to contend.

Your "bridge year" looked more like the Fern Hollow bridge for the most part. They beat bad teams to get 7 wins. You're enthusiastic progress is masked by playing crappy teams. They got lucky against the Bungles the first game of the season..

Half the teams on any schedule will be, by definition, crappy teams. The NFL is a zero-sum league - the average record for the league will be .500... with roughly half the teams worse than that. There are no bad wins in the NFL, every team is a roster made up of players who were among the 4 or 5 best players on their college teams.

The Steelers will be playing a 3rd-place schedule next year. Currently, this is who they are slated to be playing (current record in parentheses):

SF (11-4)
CIN (11-4)
CIN (11-4)
BAL (10-5)
BAL (10-5)
SEA (7-8)
DET (7-8)
JAX (7-8)
TEN (7-8)
NE (7-8)
LV (6-9)
CLE (6-9)
CLE (6-9)
Rams (5-10)
IND (4-10-1)
ARI (4-11)
HOU (2-12-1)

Only SF and CIN on that list are teams that will be clearly head-and-shoulders better than Pittsburgh next year. It is a very light schedule. There are only 5 games on that schedule of teams that are currently over .500 this year.

The Steelers will be an 11-6 or 12-5 team next year.
 
So much wrong in this post, let's address it point by point.

"In the hunt" for what? A mediocre season in the same draft position they have had for 15 years. That's what you call " in the hunt?"

Mathetmatically alive for a post-season spot with two games remaining. It's not what *I* call "in the hunt".... it is a mathematical fact.

2023 will see a "massive improvement"? How do you figure?

I already explained this, but I will again. The Steelers are *WAY* under the salary cap for next year and have lots of room to maneuver to address their pressing needs. They also will have 3 of the first 45 or so picks in the draft. The will use those, plus the millions they have under the cap to spend, to shore up the OL, MLB, DL, and get a 3rd quality WR.

I love KP, but his game right now is safety passes and 10 yard TE hookups with an occasional downfield toss. Until he learns to trust his receivers will be open after they appear to be covered he will continue to play safe with the passing game.

You say he needs to learn to trust his receivers. But last week you said he should be shut down for the season.

How do you propose he "learns" anything?

As for his progress. If you haven't seen the stready and consistently upward progress in his game from when he first entered the Jets game to today, then I seriously question your ability to evaluate the game of football. All that steady progress has come *BECAUSE* he has been playing. "Fans" who wanted to shut him down despite him being 100% medically cleared to play are, frankly, clueless about the development of NFL QBs and how important these live games are.

KP is at best the 4th best QB in the division that the Steelers compete in.

He's already the 3rd best QB in the division. Do you seriously place Deshaun Watson ahead of him? Have you watched Deshaun Watson play the past 4 weeks since he came back?

The Steelers averaged 20.2 points per game this year. Only 3 teams did worse.

Yes. That's a function of a rookie QB learning the ropes. The investment in games played this year will begin to pay off in 2023.... as I've said before, NFL QBs make their greatest leap forward in their 2nd year as a starter. We've seen it over and over and over again. All the more reason all of these games this year MATTER for KP's development as an NFL QB and why it was an absolutely ridiculous notion to "shelve" him for the final 3 games of the year.

I think Kenny will eventually be a good QB in the league. But he has a ways to go.

All the more reason it was imperative to play him as much as possible this year, and it frankly should have started in training camp with him as the #1. His development would be miles further if they had done so. As it is, his development is coming along very nicely. He also has a lot less "ways to go" than you think. And the experts agree with me..... not Joe Bag o' Donuts from Altoona - but real NFL analysts.

Contention in two years? For what? A first round loss?

No. 2023 will be the "first round loss" year. Pittsburgh will be an 11-12 win team next year. 2024 will be the year to begin to contend.

Your "bridge year" looked more like the Fern Hollow bridge for the most part. They beat bad teams to get 7 wins. You're enthusiastic progress is masked by playing crappy teams. They got lucky against the Bungles the first game of the season..

Half the teams on any schedule will be, by definition, crappy teams. The NFL is a zero-sum league - the average record for the league will be .500... with roughly half the teams worse than that. There are no bad wins in the NFL, every team is a roster made up of players who were among the 4 or 5 best players on their college teams.

The Steelers will be playing a 3rd-place schedule next year. Currently, this is who they are slated to be playing (current record in parentheses):

SF (11-4)
CIN (11-4)
CIN (11-4)
BAL (10-5)
BAL (10-5)
SEA (7-8)
DET (7-8)
JAX (7-8)
TEN (7-8)
NE (7-8)
LV (6-9)
CLE (6-9)
CLE (6-9)
Rams (5-10)
IND (4-10-1)
ARI (4-11)
HOU (2-12-1)

Only SF and CIN on that list are teams that will be clearly head-and-shoulders better than Pittsburgh next year. It is a very light schedule. There are only 5 games on that schedule of teams that are currently over .500 this year.

The Steelers will be an 11-6 or 12-5 team next year.
Bill Cowher made a living beating the bad and mediocre teams on the schedule, and splitting with the good teams. Seemed to always be good for 11-12 wins per year and AFC championship games at home. Hopefully we are a step closer to doing that next year after Kenny gained all this experience this year.

Joe Paturdno also made a living beating up on bad teams, losing to the good ones, and getting to News years day bowls each year. But that’s a story for another day.

I guess what I’m saying is there’s something to be said for taking care of business when you’re supposed to. Do that and the Steelers can compete for a division title. But there’s a lot of work that needs done before they’re a real contender.
 
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Bill Cowher made a living beating the bad and mediocre teams on the schedule, and splitting with the good teams. Seemed to always be good for 11-12 wins per year and AFC championship games at home.


It is as if people do not understand that that is the formula for success in the NFL. No one, or, OK, almost no one, beats all the bad teams and all the good ones. It just doesn't work that way. The Iggles might be the best team in the league, but they have lost to the Cowboys and the Commandos. The Cowboys are pretty good, but they've lost to the Iggles, the Jags, the Packers and the Bucs. If the Iggles aren't the best team then it might be the Bills, who have lost to the Dolphins, Jets and Vikings. Or the Chiefs, who have lost to the Colts, Bills and Bengals.

About once every decade or two a team comes along that does more than beating the bad teams and splitting with the good ones.
 
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This goes against the grain of me being a Steelers' fan all my life, but I hope they lose the last 2 games. If they go 9-8, it's not representative of the issues this team has. Tomlin will get to check the box for non-losing season, yinzers will think the team is on the rise, and nothing will happen during the offseason. The overall talent on this team is lacking. A 9-8 season will only mask the changes that are needed.
 
This goes against the grain of me being a Steelers' fan all my life, but I hope they lose the last 2 games. If they go 9-8, it's not representative of the issues this team has. Tomlin will get to check the box for non-losing season, yinzers will think the team is on the rise, and nothing will happen during the offseason. The overall talent on this team is lacking. A 9-8 season will only mask the changes that are needed.
I understand your point of view.

I disagree with it.

This is a young offense....every player is 26 years old or younger on the offense..... and any win helps them build confidence, which will pay off in the end. Whether 9-8, or 8-9 or 7-10... the draft position won't be much different.... and the front office still knows their needs, and is sitting on pile of cap-room cash that they are going to spend - regardless of their final record.
 
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One other note. Lamar Jackson will be a free agent when this season is over.

He's still pissed at how the Ravens treated him this past off-season.

Either Baltimore is going to pay a premium to keep him - which will cause them cap issues - or he's gone. Either way, this won't be a good off-season for Baltimore.

The Steelers will be the 2nd-best team in the AFC North in 2023.
 
This goes against the grain of me being a Steelers' fan all my life, but I hope they lose the last 2 games. If they go 9-8, it's not representative of the issues this team has. Tomlin will get to check the box for non-losing season, yinzers will think the team is on the rise, and nothing will happen during the offseason. The overall talent on this team is lacking. A 9-8 season will only mask the changes that are needed.
This is the correct take for higher level success. The OL is still fecal matter and as now, can’t get appreciably better. This team needed to go with Mitch after KP got hurt and ensured 12 or so losses to ensure better picks. Which in turn needed to be used to acquire truly talented OL. These last few wins will stretch out the streak of mediocrity.
 
This is the correct take for higher level success. The OL is still fecal matter and as now, can’t get appreciably better. This team needed to go with Mitch after KP got hurt and ensured 12 or so losses to ensure better picks. Which in turn needed to be used to acquire truly talented OL. These last few wins will stretch out the streak of mediocrity.
At worst, the 2nd-best OT in the draft will be available when the Steelers pick.

The difference between a 9-8 record and a 7-10 record is picking 13th instead of 18th. It doesn't make that big of a difference.
 
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At worst, the 2nd-best OT in the draft will be available when the Steelers pick.

The difference between a 9-8 record and a 7-10 record is picking 13th instead of 18th. It doesn't make that big of a difference.
Then they needed to lose 12. Or 14.

The Super Bowl is all that matters. This constant .525 seasons and one and done in the playoffs is a waste of everyone’s time.
 
The 7th playoff spot artificially gives fans hope when in the past they’d normally have been out of the picture the first week of December. I’m sure owners love the 7th playoff spot just like NHL owners love the overtime loser point. So I won’t see it as an accomplishment at all. What’s the difference between 8-9 and 9-8? But I would embrace it for Kenny and an extra week of game prep and playoff experience.

If the Steelers somehow make the playoffs, it will be as the annual sacrificial lamb, and they won’t be any closer to being a super bowl contender than any of the mediocre teams they beat out for that last spot.
Yeah, all of this. Look at the teams that are "in the hunt." They all suck. Expanding the playoffs does very little for the quality of the first round of games.

To be "in the hunt" in a rebuilding year... the first year after your hall-of-fame QB retired....and with a rookie QB.... is actually a heck of a performance.
The rebuilding started three years ago and so far, it's not going well. The 2021 draft might end up being the worst draft of Tomlin's tenure. KP was obviously the best QB in the room and it took a quarter of the season to put him out there. He's been saddled with a patchwork OL and an OC that is mocked openly around the NFL. The team has won seven games, averaging under 18 points per game. Not a heck of a performance. More like, thank god the schedule included the worst division in football and some complete dogs in the crossover matchups like LV and Indy.
 
Not to be selfish, but the Pats winning this game by 2 exactly was the best case scenario for me personally. Thank you Skylar Thompson!
 
Bill Cowher made a living beating the bad and mediocre teams on the schedule, and splitting with the good teams. Seemed to always be good for 11-12 wins per year and AFC championship games at home. Hopefully we are a step closer to doing that next year after Kenny gained all this experience this year.

Joe Paturdno also made a living beating up on bad teams, losing to the good ones, and getting to News years day bowls each year. But that’s a story for another day.

I guess what I’m saying is there’s something to be said for taking care of business when you’re supposed to. Do that and the Steelers can compete for a division title. But there’s a lot of work that needs done before they’re a real contender.
Methinks you’re overinflating Cowher’s record. He won less than 10 games 6/15 years with the Steelers and lost to plenty of bad teams.
 
My wish was for them to lose their past 3 games to improve draft position but that’s not the Steeler Way. Middling draft picks and 1st round playoff stomp downs is their Way. Their OL is in serious need of talent injection and drafting 18-25 will not improve that line since they won’t pay for a very good FA.
 
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