So if Pitt wins its last 2 reg season games and only 1 ACC Tournament game, are they in?
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That would leave them at 22-11, same as last year, IMO it would be insane if an ACC team with 22 wins can't get in.
So you think that gets them in this time? Maybe the play-in game right?
I’d say that puts us right there - maybe in, maybe not. We’ll have to see what other teams do.
That's the thing, all this doesn't happen in a vacuum. I think that if we win the next three in a row we are going to be in. In fact I don't think it would end up being all that close. But if you asked me to sit here an concoct a scenario where that ends up being not good enough, I'll bet I could do that pretty easily, and come up with more than one.
Now that doesn't mean that any of those scenarios are likely. But they absolutely are possible.
We're still in the Next Four Out, will winning 3 games against non-quad 1 teams and then losing again in the 2nd game of the ACC Tournament really get us in? I don't think so but maybe.
Of course not. But the bubble still has to play games. Very few if any bubble teams will win their conference tourney. Some will be upset and lose games they should win. There are also plenty of bubble vs bubble games left this week. So we expect Pitt to win in combination with other teams in front of them losing and that is what gets them in.
Actually there is a pretty good chance that if we win our next two our first game in the ACC tournament would end up being a Q1 win.
And again, we are not playing our games in a vacuum. There are lots of teams on the bubble that will lose this week. When we did this a week ago I threw out seven teams on the bubble with some of their remaining schedules and said that it was more likely that they would all lose another game than that any of them would go undefeated. And sure enough, one week later every single one of them (and us too) lost another game.
Because that's what teams on the bubble do. Literally, every year, that's what they do.
I posted this in another thread but Pitt has NCST and FSU left. This is what awaits other bubble teams this week:
Nova: Seton Hall and Creighton
KSU has Kansas and Iowa State
Iowa has Illinois
Seton Hall: Nova
Colorado and Oregon have a head to head
Utah and Oregon have a head to head
Memphis and FAU have a head to head
Texas A&M plays both MissSt and Ole Miss
New Mexico will be at Utah State
Nevada and Boise State have a head to head
St. John’s is sort of like Pitt and has DePaul and Georgetown left, but attrition on the bubble will occur.
Nova: Seton Hall and Creighton
KSU has Kansas and Iowa State
Iowa has Illinois
Seton Hall: Nova
Colorado and Oregon have a head to head
Utah and Oregon have a head to head
Memphis and FAU have a head to head
Texas A&M plays both MissSt and Ole Miss
New Mexico will be at Utah State
Nevada and Boise State have a head to head
St. John’s is sort of like Pitt and has DePaul and Georgetown left, but attrition on the bubble will occur.
Georgetown = Louisville
DePaul = NC AT&T
Our last 2 opponents are far better than SJ and it’s not even close
I said this in the other thread, I did not realize that DePaul had only won three games all season. They are going to pull the full Stallings and lose all their conference games this year.
But they did beat Louisville.
Let’s win the next two and let’s only get a one game bye in the ACC tourney. A one game bye probably gets us a team we should easily beat. Getting into first four would likely match us against a much tougher opponent.
Get those three wins and we are sitting at better than play in game.
Get those three wins and we are sitting at better than play in game.
If the committee truly values the ability to win away from home, then we should have quite an edge on most all the other bubblers.
They use a variety of metrics to make decisions- but it’s not just like an algorithm - it’s humans making judgments based on a variety of data points .
Here is PItt ‘s team sheet :
Pittsburgh Panthers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Pittsburgh Panthers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
Largely the data they use
Depends on who the ACCT win is against. Is it against UVa or Clemson or Cuse, then yes. Against a Louisville, BC or GT, need more.
Agree. I believe slightly better than 50% in the first scenario, and 95%+ in the second.
So on a deeper dive, the 5th and 6th teams may face a Q3 opponent rather than Q2. This happened last year when Pitt played 189 Net GT. Only 3 teams right now qualify for Q3 neutral site status: BC (100 thanks to Pitt), ND (125), GT (134). Lville is the sole Q4 opponent (210). While Pitt would likely win, it wouldn’t do a whole lot, unless they really blow them out again on a neutral site.
The first round matchups today would be:
9 VT vs 15 Lville
10 ND vs 14 Miami
12 BC and 11 GT
The 5th seed would get the winner of BC/GT, both Q3
The 6th seed would get winner of ND/Miami so either a Q3 or Q2.
Pitt is currently 7th and would get winner of VT/Lville. Either a Q2 or Q4.
It would help mightily it NCST beats Duke tomorrow. Wake/Gt play head to head. Ideally we want wake top 30 and Gt top 135. wVU needs to move up 9 to get us a Q2.
The first round matchups today would be:
9 VT vs 15 Lville
10 ND vs 14 Miami
12 BC and 11 GT
The 5th seed would get the winner of BC/GT, both Q3
The 6th seed would get winner of ND/Miami so either a Q3 or Q2.
Pitt is currently 7th and would get winner of VT/Lville. Either a Q2 or Q4.
It would help mightily it NCST beats Duke tomorrow. Wake/Gt play head to head. Ideally we want wake top 30 and Gt top 135. wVU needs to move up 9 to get us a Q2.
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So, what's the use of having all these metrics, when at the end they could just do their personal eye test if they feel like it? 10-20 years ago it seemed like if you where in a power conference and won 18-20 games you where pretty much a lock, back then nobody talked about Q1 or Q2 or whatever? When did that stuff actually come in?They use a variety of metrics to make decisions- but it’s not just like an algorithm - it’s humans making judgments based on a variety of data points .
Here is PItt ‘s team sheet :
Pittsburgh Panthers NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Pittsburgh Panthers 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrantswww.warrennolan.com
Largely the data they use
Pitt cant get the 7 seed and still have a shot at the NCAAT because that would have meant they lose a game this week. If they win both, the lowest they can finish is 6th because the Syr/Clem loser will lose a 9th game. That is big because you want to avoid VT on Wednesday and Duke/UNC on Thu. Playing ND and then UVa is much easier
No problem Vince. I lost you at your promise to run around your block naked after Pitt made the NCAA Tournament last season after you swore you would do it. You never did of course.
iffy at best when you are battling it out with three teams with basically the same records (Wake, Clemson and Syracuse) that you are 1-5 against. A tall order...
Why do you want to avoid VT? we just destroyed them by 15.
Oh I'm sorry Vince, did you not write in a post last year that if Pitt made it into the NCAA Tournament you would run around your whole block naked? Hmmmm I could have sworn that was you. So the irony of YOU of all people bringing up an old post of mine where I was admittedly wrong is beyond funny.
Unless we win the ACC tournament, I think the best we are going to be is be in the First Four (or "play in" game) once again this year.
But to me, starting play in Dayton is still "IN" the tournament, but not everyone sees it that way.
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