Stanford - Coronavirus fatality rate under 45 almost 0%

[DC_Area_Panther]

How is that incorrect?

There have been many scholarly studies concerning the psychology of people's level of fear of various things that appear to threaten. Here is a link to a discussion of the phenomenon.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/11/perceived_risk_2.html

People can be just as, or even more, afraid of high hazard, very very low probability events as they are of higher probability high hazard events. The severity of the event, or potential event, often carries more psychological impact than its probability. A maximally severe Nuclear Power plant accident is a classic example. One's chances of dying from such an event is vastly less than one's chances of dying from many many other things. In fact it is vanishingly small. Yet, people tend to fear it much more than many other far, far, more likely to kill you events. Another more common example is people being more afraid of taking an airplane flight than taking a trip in their car even though statistically the latter presents a much higher statistical risk of dying.

So, even if you are within, or just discussing, a demographic where Covid is statistically highly unlikely to cause serious harm or death (but there are a few cases) you might still be more afraid or concerned about it than many other things more likely to cause similar or greater harm. Sensational media coverage has a big impact on this perception as noted in the linked discussion.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

High quality pretzel making.

Would have been simpler to just post you think it is perfectly acceptable to force compliance if it aligns with your personal beliefs.

Is very clear. Is only a pretzel when your mind refuses to accept that you are not only wrong, but have psychopathic control tendencies.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Lol. You asked what am "I" talking about? What are YOU talking about? Masks work. Social distancing works. Except, "mah freedum" makes it impossible.

How does a mask affect the wearer? How effective is a mask? How much can it protect?

Social distancing will protect you from everything in life. Stay inside forever.

Freedom is valuable. Your disdain for freedom exposes your propensity for control of others. You only have the ability to speak with such frustration at others because of those who cared so much for freedom.

You forget that many died to gain freedom. Many fewer will die to lose it. But you don't care about others, only how you feel from the anger you project.

 

[jivecat]

There have been scholarly studies concerning the psychology of people's level of fear of various things that appear to threaten. People can be just as, or even more, afraid of high hazard, very very low probability events as they are of higher probability high hazard events. The severity of the event, or potential event, often carries more psychological impact than its probability. A maximally severe Nuclear Power plant accident is a classic example. One's chances of dying from such an event is vastly less than one's chances of dying from many many other things. In fact it is vanishingly small. Yet, people tend to fear it much more than many other far, far, more likely to kill you events. Another more common example is people being more afraid of taking an airplane flight than taking a trip in their car even though statistically the latter presents a much higher statistical risk of dying.

So, even if you are within, or just discussing, a demographic where Covid is statistically highly unlikely to cause serious harm or death (but there are a few cases) you might still be more afraid or concerned about it than many other things more likely to cause similar or greater harm. This is just human psychology.

This probably makes more sense then anything I have read on this board in a long time. Kind of the "Jaws" effect....no one wants to go swimming in the ocean despite there being almost no chance of a shark attack. Amazing what media can do to the human psyche.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

This probably makes more sense then anything I have read on this board in a long time. Kind of the "Jaws" effect....no one wants to go swimming in the ocean despite there being almost no chance of a shark attack. Amazing what media can do to the human psyche.

You'll be happy to know about this:

 

[lilspainishflea]

Good news coming out of Stanford.

https://www.kusi.com/dr-scott-atlas...-mongering-tactics-from-our-health-officials/

Dr. Atlas used Texas of an example saying, “90+% of ICU beds are occupied, but only 15% are COVID patients. 85% of the occupied beds are not COVID patients. I think we have to look at the data and be aware that it doesn’t matter if younger, healthier people get infected, I don’t know how often that has to be said, they have nearly zero risk of a problem from this. The only thing that counts are the older, more vulnerable people getting infected. And there’s no evidence that they really are.”


Dr. Atlas then pointed out the hospitalization length of stay is about half of what it once was.

I find it terribly hard to believe that the ICU bedcount in Texas is up from 200 in Mid-March to 8,700 today and yet only 15% of that 8,700 is COVID patients. What the hell else would create such a huge spike? Were there 8,500 lawnmower accidents?

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

I find it terribly hard to believe that the ICU bedcount in Texas is up from 200 in Mid-March to 8,700 today and yet only 15% of that 8,700 is COVID patients. What the hell else would create such a huge spike? Were there 8,500 lawnmower accidents?

All the people who weren’t treated properly for every other ailment for the last 3.5 months.

 

[lilspainishflea]

All the people who weren’t treated properly for every other ailment for the last 3.5 months.

Yeah I'm sure 8,500 people needing intensive care for 3.5 months were just sitting around doing nothing and all decided to go in together at the same time. Makes sense.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Yeah I'm sure 8,500 people were sitting around needing intensive care for 3.5 months were just sitting around doing nothing and all decided to go in together at the same time. Makes sense.

I don't know the answer. I was just making a suggestion. It seemed that you were making suggestions.

 

[lilspainishflea]

I don't know the answer. I was just making a suggestion. It seemed that you were making suggestions.

I mean, I know the answer. The answer is that a ton of people got an easily transmissible virus because they weren't taking precautions and ended up in the ICU. There's literally nothing else that would cause 8,500 ICU cases at the same time.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

I mean, I know the answer. The answer is that a ton of people got an easily transmissible virus because they weren't taking precautions and ended up in the ICU. There's literally nothing else that would cause 8,500 ICU cases at the same time.

The hospital is lying?

 

[jivecat]

It is certa

I mean, I know the answer. The answer is that a ton of people got an easily transmissible virus because they weren't taking precautions and ended up in the ICU. There's literally nothing else that would cause 8,500 ICU cases at the same time.

It is certainly possible that .00018% of the population (albeit the older and pre conditioned) have succumbed to this virus. It has a devastating effect on this group and would explain the numbers.

 

[Jeffburgh]

The arguments from the extremes on this pandemic are exhausting!
It isn't the Black Death but it isn't just the flu either.

It is a novel virus that has been around 5 months, it is very dangerous to certain people, and appears to be less dangerous to others. We are still learning what we're up against, and it is far too early to judge long term effects.

How in the hell a public health emergency became a political football is astounding, but it is a presidential election year, so there you go.

My healthy niece, late 20's, got this in Manhattan early on. She had a mild case, but STILL can't smell or taste anything. My cousin who is older and has comorbidities, got it and almost died. 2 weeks in hospital on oxygen therapy and hydroxichloriquine pulled him through. He said anyone who thinks this is the flu has a second thought coming. Very scary not being able to breathe!

The European union has proven you can knock this virus down and keep it down while you reopen and smartly approach normal life. The U.S. was on the path to doing this, but politics got in the way, aided no doubt by enemy bots on social media to stoke the flames and injure Americans. (How's that for a conspiracy theory?)

In any event, we're getting back to square one with this. Thankfully, there are better treatment options and the death rate is down, BUT that doesn't mean this still isn't a very serious situation and could turn on a dime.

As Winston Churchill purportedly said, "Americans will always do the right thing, AFTER they've tried everything else!"

A bunch of my con FB friends were all in a lather a few weeks ago about this "Antifa" sponsored invitation to a flag burning on the Fourth of July at Gettysburg that turned up on their feeds.

It was clearly a fake, just sloppy and the language was off like the Russian troll farms do. I TRIED to tell them they were being trolled. I mean, why do THEY get these and my america hating democratic self and all my fellow democratic america hating friends don't get these.

Didn't want to hear it, they get it because they want the truth, and of course a bunch of armed lugnut winger groups were traipsing around Gettysburg Saturday and ... no Antifa.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

A bunch of my con FB friends were all in a lather a few weeks ago about this "Antifa" sponsored invitation to a flag burning on the Fourth of July at Gettysburg that turned up on their feeds.

It was clearly a fake, just sloppy and the language was off like the Russian troll farms do. I TRIED to tell them they were being trolled. I mean, why do THEY get these and my america hating democratic self and all my fellow democratic america hating friends don't get these.

Didn't want to hear it, they get it because they want the truth, and of course a bunch of armed lugnut winger groups were traipsing around Gettysburg Saturday and ... no Antifa.

Seems like you are lying.

 

[pittdan77]

A bunch of my con FB friends were all in a lather a few weeks ago about this "Antifa" sponsored invitation to a flag burning on the Fourth of July at Gettysburg that turned up on their feeds.

It was clearly a fake, just sloppy and the language was off like the Russian troll farms do. I TRIED to tell them they were being trolled. I mean, why do THEY get these and my america hating democratic self and all my fellow democratic america hating friends don't get these.

Didn't want to hear it, they get it because they want the truth, and of course a bunch of armed lugnut winger groups were traipsing around Gettysburg Saturday and ... no Antifa.

That's what happens when you rely on FB for anything. Going to guess the deep state mask conspiracy is all the rage today since kids will need to wear them at school, now.

 

[Pitt2006]

Especially with exponential growth. Here in Florida, my friend who works in infectious disease really had not seen a lot of Covid patients until about 2 weeks ago. Now it has exploded, seemingly out of no where. There are young people on vents here. Hospitals have cut back elective procedures to save bed space.

But it is all a conspiracy. A massive conspiracy hatched by China to infect the whole world to make us limit our freedom by wearing masks in public for a few minutes while shopping. To return us to a time of Socialists Obama/Biden when the stock market rose 150% in eight years. To a time when individuals with pre-existing medical conditions were finally given protection, unlike at present, where in the midst of a pandemic, our president has asked the Supreme Court to dismantle the ACA including protections for pre-existing medical conditions. Goldman Sachs put out a statement that wearing masks can help prevent a 5% drop in GDP, but mask wearing limits freedom for many.

A virus that is selectively picking up traction in swing states with GOP leaders. Abbott in Texas finally acknowledged the growing issue and has been attacked since by anti-vaxers saying he is now part of the conspiracy.

And folks will continue to bitch when we don’t have college football or basketball.

 

[Jeffburgh]

That's what happens when you rely on FB for anything. Going to guess the deep state mask conspiracy is all the rage today since kids will need to wear them at school, now.

sigh ...

 

[pittdan77]

sigh ...

I do that any time someone quotes FB as a source of news or information.

 

[jivecat]

Especially with exponential growth. Here in Florida, my friend who works in infectious disease really had not seen a lot of Covid patients until about 2 weeks ago. Now it has exploded, seemingly out of no where. There are young people on vents here. Hospitals have cut back elective procedures to save bed space.

But it is all a conspiracy. A massive conspiracy hatched by China to infect the whole world to make us limit our freedom by wearing masks in public for a few minutes while shopping. To return us to a time of Socialists Obama/Biden when the stock market rose 150% in eight years. To a time when individuals with pre-existing medical conditions were finally given protection, unlike at present, where in the midst of a pandemic, our president has asked the Supreme Court to dismantle the ACA including protections for pre-existing medical conditions. Goldman Sachs put out a statement that wearing masks can help prevent a 5% drop in GDP, but mask wearing limits freedom for many.

A virus that is selectively picking up traction in swing states with GOP leaders. Abbott in Texas finally acknowledged the growing issue and has been attacked since by anti-vaxers saying he is now part of the conspiracy.

And folks will continue to bitch when we don’t have college football or basketball.

I have seen one....just one person who was not wearing a mask in a store when it was required. This is over 3 months. Who is not wearing a mask? Anyone see or know people like this?

 

[pittdan77]

I have seen one....just one person who was not wearing a mask in a store when it was required. This is over 3 months. Who is not wearing a mask? Anyone see or know people like this?

You're fortunate. In Central PA, wearing masks is very hit and miss. I'd say it's gotten a little better but it's not uncommon to visit a store and be the only person wearing a mask. It's mostly the fellows who aren't wearing them -- I'd use the term "men" but there's nothing manly about complete disregard for others.

Speaking of the FB comments above, I don't bother with it very often but I get on to clear notifications occasionally and see what that world is doing. I was shocked by the number of posts that people in my community shared that claim masks are some sort of an attempt at freedom or some kind of left-wing conspiracy. One had masks as the first step towards burkas. Blows my mind.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I have seen one....just one person who was not wearing a mask in a store when it was required. This is over 3 months. Who is not wearing a mask? Anyone see or know people like this?

It’s been good from what I’ve seen in and right around the city (Pittsburgh). I haven’t been inside too many places but when I see people leaving stores everyone’s been masked up. Had some buddies tell me they’ve seen the same.

And then I just came across this.



Stuff like this matters. People do take cues from political leaders. I’m certainly not suggesting that if lawmakers wear them that everyone will. Far from it. But it would help if they’d set the example. It’s such an easy thing to do and it really would help get us out of this mess, or maybe at least help keep it manageable.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I have seen one....just one person who was not wearing a mask in a store when it was required. This is over 3 months. Who is not wearing a mask? Anyone see or know people like this?

Are you for real? At any one time, I'd say the mask wearing rate was around 75% at best up until at least a week or 2 ago.

 

[PittPanther44]

Are you for real? At any one time, I'd say the mask wearing rate was around 75% at best up until at least a week or 2 ago.

Depends...Giant Eagle or Lowe’s or other larger stores close to 100%. Smaller stores and the more rural you get, it tails off consoderably

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Depends...Giant Eagle or Lowe’s or other larger stores close to 100%. Smaller stores and the more rural you get, it tails off consoderably

Giant Eagle requires masks, and has been sued by numerous people that they would not allow into their stores because they refused to wear masks. So that's why it's close to 100% there.

I pointed out in an earlier thread on this that I was in a place now probably a month ago. There were 10 people there including the two workers, and I was one of only two people in the place wearing a mask.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

How does a mask affect the wearer? How effective is a mask? How much can it protect

It cuts infection rates about 79% in a region by being roughly 30% effective. Lancet estimated this is about 8 million lives saved globally. Hope that helps.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

How does a mask affect the wearer? How effective is a mask? How much can it protect?

From everything I’ve read the mask isn’t for protecting yourself. It actually offers the wearer little protection. Wearing a mask limits the projection of the droplets of the person wearing the mask. So the person wearing the mask is protecting those around them. If I wear a mask I’m protecting you and anyone else around. It’s not 100% effective but it is supposed to slow down transmission. Enough so that if a most people wear them the R0 value should be under 1 which is critical.

 

[Jeffburgh]

You're fortunate. In Central PA, wearing masks is very hit and miss. I'd say it's gotten a little better but it's not uncommon to visit a store and be the only person wearing a mask. It's mostly the fellows who aren't wearing them -- I'd use the term "men" but there's nothing manly about complete disregard for others.

Speaking of the FB comments above, I don't bother with it very often but I get on to clear notifications occasionally and see what that world is doing. I was shocked by the number of posts that people in my community shared that claim masks are some sort of an attempt at freedom or some kind of left-wing conspiracy. One had masks as the first step towards burkas. Blows my mind.

Yep. Our way it has REALLY slipped. In town maybe half. Outside of town pretty much no one wearing them past some retired age folks.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

It cuts infection rates about 79% in a region by being roughly 30% effective. Lancet estimated this is about 8 million lives saved globally. Hope that helps.

That is quite an estimation. Based on the same statistics as the UK professor who was visiting his mistress during lockdown?

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

From everything I’ve read the mask isn’t for protecting yourself. It actually offers the wearer little protection. Wearing a mask limits the projection of the droplets of the person wearing the mask. So the person wearing the mask is protecting those around them. If I wear a mask I’m protecting you and anyone else around. It’s not 100% effective but it is supposed to slow down transmission. Enough so that if a most people wear them the R0 value should be under 1 which is critical.

I don't disagree that this is the case. However, what are the consequences to the wearer.

In the same way that it is obvious that it would block human droplets, wouldn't it restrict the oxygen that the wearing is able to breathe?

This is not something to be considered?

 

[thom67]

I don't disagree that this is the case. However, what are the consequences to the wearer.

In the same way that it is obvious that it would block human droplets, wouldn't it restrict the oxygen that the wearing is able to breathe?

This is not something to be considered?

Oxygen would not be restricted by a mask. If you are using a N95 mask, it will be much more protective to the wearer. The problem has always been: there are not enough N95 masks for hospital workers let alone for regular people.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I don't disagree that this is the case. However, what are the consequences to the wearer.

In the same way that it is obvious that it would block human droplets, wouldn't it restrict the oxygen that the wearing is able to breathe?

This is not something to be considered?

Yes it should be considered, which is why people with severe asthma can have ADA accommodation at work and why the Asthma and Allergy Association published a list of types of masks that are appropriate for those with breathing problems. But that's relatively rare, the vast majority of people with asthma have no problems with a cloth or surgical mask -- they don't restrict oxygen or we'd all be passing out. If they were literally "airtight" , then yeah, of course you'd have an issue.

As for the numbers I posted, the Lancet study used aggregate data from dozens of existing studies from across the world. Maybe that's not the best method but there is a scientific consensus that masks have saved many lives. Even if they were only 10% effective at stopping someone from spreading the virus (no estimate is that low btw) -- chart that down a tree of people you come into contact with, then people they come in contact with, then people they come in contact with, and so on.

I'm honestly not following what point you're trying to make here.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Yes it should be considered, which is why people with severe asthma can have ADA accommodation at work and why the Asthma and Allergy Association published a list of types of masks that are appropriate for those with breathing problems. But that's relatively rare, the vast majority of people with asthma have no problems with a cloth or surgical mask -- they don't restrict oxygen or we'd all be passing out. If they were literally "airtight" , then yeah, of course you'd have an issue.

As for the numbers I posted, the Lancet study used aggregate data from dozens of existing studies from across the world. Maybe that's not the best method but there is a scientific consensus that masks have saved many lives. Even if they were only 10% effective at stopping someone from spreading the virus (no estimate is that low btw) -- chart that down a tree of people you come into contact with, then people they come in contact with, then people they come in contact with, and so on.

I'm honestly not following what point you're trying to make here.

I understand what you are saying. But the idea to say that if it were 10% effective is arbitrary and certainly requires a judgement call rather than facts to force someone to do something. Also, there is no telling what is effective, what is not and to what degree it might maybe could possibly hopefully be. That is why freedom supporters can always point to the slow creep of restrictions.

It starts small and grows more and more. We have seen this with our eyes since March. Bureaucrats create bureaucracy, law makers make laws and each of them doesn't have the particular common nature to control their restrictions as much as they prefer to restrict others.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

It seems that all the discussion in this thread ultimately boils down to taking sides based on whether one believes, or does not believe, the elderly and health compromised can be adequately protected without everyone, including elementary, middle and high school kids, isolating or wearing masks if physically present at school. There exists 180 degree differing opinions on this issue.

The related larger underlying issue is whether one believes, or does not believe, that the present levels of isolation/shutdown measures if continued will cause more overall harm than overall good when the entire universe of health and safety factors impacting society (not just the Covid-specific factors) are fully considered in the equation. There exists 180 degree differing opinions on this issue as well.

Unfortunately, we won't settle these arguments on a Pitt football board.

Perhaps it is time for this thread to be relocated to the locker room?

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

It seems that all the discussion in this thread ultimately boils down to taking sides based on whether one believes, or does not believe, the elderly and health compromised can be adequately protected without everyone, including elementary, middle and high school kids, isolating or wearing masks if physically present at school. There exists 180 degree differing opinions on this issue.

The related larger underlying issue is whether one believes, or does not believe, that the present levels of isolation/shutdown measures if continued will cause more overall harm than overall good when the entire universe of health and safety factors impacting society (not just the Covid-specific factors) are fully considered in the equation. There exists 180 degree differing opinions on this issue as well.

Unfortunately, we won't settle these arguments on a Pitt football board.

Perhaps it is time for this thread to be relocated to the locker room?

What arguments have ever been solved on the Pitt football board? Who the greatest 6th year redshirt medical exemption senior WR in Pitt history is?

No reason to be offended by discussion. You can certainly start a thread on the upcoming 2021 football season.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I understand what you are saying. But the idea to say that if it were 10% effective is arbitrary and certainly requires a judgement call rather than facts to force someone to do something. Also, there is no telling what is effective, what is not and to what degree it might maybe could possibly hopefully be. That is why freedom supporters can always point to the slow creep of restrictions.

It starts small and grows more and more. We have seen this with our eyes since March. Bureaucrats create bureaucracy, law makers make laws and each of them doesn't have the particular common nature to control their restrictions as much as they prefer to restrict others.

People aren't being hauled off to Allegheny County jail for refusing to wear masks, no matter how irresponsible it is to not take such a basic step. Feels like heated rhetoric. There is a philosophical argument about public safety vs. individual freedom that comes down to whether or not your freedom harms someone else but people should just wear the masks. Even if we had no government, they should wear the masks as part of a basic social contract of not killing each other.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

People aren't being hauled off to Allegheny County jail for refusing to wear masks, no matter how irresponsible it is to not take such a basic step. Feels like heated rhetoric. There is a philosophical argument about public safety vs. individual freedom that comes down to whether or not your freedom harms someone else but people should just wear the masks. Even if we had no government, they should wear the masks as part of a basic social contract of not killing each other.

That is the argument. What is the damage to impose such things. The same logical argument should apply to driving. We can save many by imposing all sorts of rules.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

How much of an exemption do they get for lying? They can lie a little bit? Or the ends justify the means? Do you get to determine how much dishonesty is acceptable? What are the health risks from wearing masks? What are the health risks for healthy people being stuck inside for long periods? How many cancer patients will lose life because their screenings were delayed? Is covid worse than cancer? Is covid worse than heart disease? Should all health screenings have been delayed over covid fears? Should fear rule our lives?

Or maybe people who believe like you without consequence should rule over all for all times?

Holodomor.

Are you suggesting that your employment linked ,Byzantine pay for procedure health care system is not incentivized for screenings and preventative health care ?

hey - you want to open that door -
Let’s walk all the way in.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Are you suggesting that your employment linked ,Byzantine pay for procedure health care system is not incentivized for screenings and preventative health care ?

hey - you want to open that door -
Let’s walk all the way in.

Que? Como?

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

How does a mask affect the wearer? How effective is a mask? How much can it protect?

Social distancing will protect you from everything in life. Stay inside forever.

Freedom is valuable. Your disdain for freedom exposes your propensity for control of others. You only have the ability to speak with such frustration at others because of those who cared so much for freedom.

You forget that many died to gain freedom. Many fewer will die to lose it. But you don't care about others, only how you feel from the anger you project.

Why is it when you say freedom -
It sounds more like nihilistic narcissism?

a very minor inconvenience to actually have the freedom to do more things and more businesses to recover -And protect those employees
And you’re acting like Rumplesliltskin stomping your foot at the outrage .

you lose no liberty by wearing a mask
Your right to be an Asshole ends at infecting others .
Why show so little regard FOR THEIR LIBERTY?

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Why is it when you say freedom -
It sounds more like nihilistic narcissism?

a very minor inconvenience to actually have the freedom to do more things and more businesses to recover -And protect those employees
And you’re acting like Rumplesliltskin stomping your foot at the outrage .

you lose no liberty by wearing a mask
Your right to be an Asshole ends at infecting others .
Why show so little regard FOR THEIR LIBERTY?

You anger shows how much you desire control. How dare I not agree with you. Have you ever driven over the speed limit?

I simply state facts with no emotion. I never used caps or spewed emotion as you. Never used profanity as you have.

And forcing someone to do something with the treat of consequence is the definition of losing freedom.

You are either a liar or unable to comprehend your own words.