Steelers vs Bengals Game Thread
- Thread starter 9nationalchampionships
- Start date
Really bad playcalling on this final drive. Three throws all to the outside and none of them had any real chance of success. Was a perfect opportunity to come back to Snell underneath or even McDonald.
The plays in this drive have been mind numbing. Just absolutely flat out moronic
A
anon_4dfwm2pijbr0a
Guest
When Big Ben no longer has the magic to make the Bengals bungal, you know something is up...
A
anon_4dfwm2pijbr0a
Guest
Now I can watch the rest of National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation. Far more entertaining.
Sure looked like Ben had his mind made up well before the snap he was throwing to Washington.
4 throws and none even close against a team that was waiting to lose the way they do all of the time.
Not sure how you don’t call PI on that pass to claypool. But having said that they didn’t deserve to win
A
anon_4dfwm2pijbr0a
Guest
Not sure how much of that is Ben or how much is Ticnher. But there were no revivers even in the middle of the field
He wasn’t wrong when he said hell would be unleashed in December...
Again....since 2011 SB loss, the Steelers under Tomlin have lost at least 2 games against very inferior foes and QB’s that have cost them either a BYE, Division, or Wild Card.He wasn’t wrong when he said hell would be unleashed in December...
Whatever it is it’s a lack of focus in these games and the media can sugar coat it. The apologists can blame other things. But it’s the same thing year after year.
And it ultimately comes back to bite them.
Regular season success is nice and other fan bases would die to have the Steelers success the last 10 years....I get it. It’s written in the Pittsburgh media every year Tomlin gets heat from the fan base.
But it is the same sad story. Something is wrong. And it’s not just this year. The mentality of this team becomes inept in these type of games.
But I’m just a stupid fan. All hail the Regular Season Record!!
Last 4 games; 19, 17, 15, 17 pts.
Doesn’t matter how good your D is, you ain’t winning many games with that production.
Fortunate is the AFC Playoff team that draws the Steelers in the 1st round.....unless we figure it out in the next 2 games. Sure didn’t do so in the 1st of those 3 games we had to figure it out.
Doesn’t matter how good your D is, you ain’t winning many games with that production.
Fortunate is the AFC Playoff team that draws the Steelers in the 1st round.....unless we figure it out in the next 2 games. Sure didn’t do so in the 1st of those 3 games we had to figure it out.
Here's a cut and paste from the other thread:
Secondly, here's the reason that you go for two when you score down 14. Let's assume for our purposes that you have a 50% chance to make a two pointer. I don't know what the exact current NCAA percentage is, but it is always close to 50%, and it will make the math easier, so let's go with it. If you go for two and you make (50% chance) it then you are down six, so if you score again and you make the extra you win. So, 50% chance that if you score two touchdowns you win.
If you go for two and you don't make it, then when you score the second touchdown obviously you have to go for two. If you make it (50% chance) the game is tied and you go to overtime. Let's again assume that for teams of this stature that overtime is approximately a 50-50 proposition for either team. So half the time that you get to this point you win and the other half you lose. And of course if you go for two the second time and don't make it you lose.
So add up all the win/loss percentages. If you go for two the first time and then play the rest of the game out you will win the game approximately 62.5% of the time (5/8) and you will lose the game approximately 37.5% of the time (3/8). Which would mean that most teams should go for two when they score a touchdown when they are down by 14 points late in the game EVERY TIME.
Now there are other things that play into that. If your team is really good at making two pointers (I'm not sure that anyone actually goes for two enough to know this for a fact) then you should be even more likely to go for two the first time, because your win percentage would be even greater than 62.5%. And you also have to take into account what you think your chances of winning in overtime are. For instance last night Florida's defense had been on the field a lot. If the coaches thought that if they went to overtime they had less than a 50% chance then they should be more likely to go for two, because not going for two increases the chances the game goes to overtime where you are more likely to lose. On the other hand, if something about the game situation (for instance the other team's starting quarterback just got carted off the field) makes you think that you are more than 50% likely to win in overtime then you might prefer to play for overtime and take your chances there.
So the fact of the matter is, teams should basically always go for two if they find themselves in the situation that Florida found themselves in last night. The problem isn't going for two, the problem is being so ill-prepared that you have to waste a timeout before you go for two.
I would normally agree with you because Tomlin has definitely had a history of losing to 1 or 2 teams most years that they never had any business losing to.
But this is different, their offense is just plain ole awful.
Absolutely the biggest issue for sure. They have all gotten old and they flat out suck. They have worn down and now not only can they not run block, they can't pass block either. They need to draft as many lineman as they can next year, what they have is shot and puts on a shit-show every week.
Both tackles got beat on the throw to Washington.
When you explain it like that, it makes a lot of sense. I’ve always harped on teams for not going for two when they score a TD after being up by one (e.g. 10-9, 7-6, etc.), but this seems like another good time to attempt it. Thanks for the rundown.
Tried to explain this to someone at work the other day, but he just couldn’t wrap his head around it at all. Was going to hit him up with the Monty Hall Paradox next, but thinking he’s not ready after the going for 2 difficulties.
That's just the bare bones of it with some assumptions baked in (for instance that assumes that you will always make your extra points if you kick them), but the percentages are only going to change a little bit one way or the other if you slightly increase or decrease your chances of making a two pointer or your chances of winning in overtime.
The o-line is awful. Villanueva is done. I really can't fault the defense. This is probably a 17-10 win without the turnovers. They need major help on offense along the line, and they need a stud running back. They need Ben's replacement, but may have to go the veteran route for a year when Ben leaves. The line and backfield have to be the priority, a lineman and a back should be the first two picks, doesn't matter what order. If a stud lineman is there in the first round, take him. If not, take one of the stud backs that will certainly still be there, and then take a lineman second. A free agent lineman would also be nice.
You have to take your team into account
KC should always have the 2 point option on the table. The Steelers can't get a yard on 3rd and 1. Them going for 2 would have been beyond idiotic. If they had tied the game, Cincinnati would have been reeling going into ot after blowing a 17 point lead.
No use if the QB can't get it there.
Ryan Finley has a very weak arm, he underthrew everything over 20 yards. But he still had the far superior arm of the two QBs playing tonight.
Also: This is now three straight seasons where they’ve completely collapsed in December. Once is an anomaly, twice is explainable, three times is a trend.
Her is an article from 2005 that might be the first to explain why you should almost always go for 2 when down by 14 late in the game ...... he uses 43% as usual success rate on 2 point conversions (it has varied from 40-50% in college over many years) and 94% for one point conversions (was 96-97% in 2016 in college) ...... he explains his reasoning in detail mathematically and derives formulas that can be used ..... it's much of what you said only even more detailed but pretty easy to follow.
At the end of the day, he shows, just as you pointed out, that if you are down by 14 late in the game, your best chance of winning is to go for 2 points after the first TD then decide what is best after the 2nd TD which makes it more significantly likely you will win then if you kick extra points after both TD's (or go for 2 after the second TD if you miss the extra point after the first TD), and the worst chance of winning is to kick an extra point after the first TD and if you make it, try a 2 pointer after the 2nd TD ...... there are only a couple reasons not to go for 2 after the first TD and they are EXCEEDINGLY RARE.... Check link below ......
https://thesportjournal.org/article/playing-with-the-percentages-when-trailing-by-two-touchdowns/
The plays that hurt them most early in the game were the Canada special. Motion, running against motion, running with motion, the jet sweep (sorta).
Every one lost yardage,
In particular you do not want Bennie running a delay handoff laterally behind the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 1.
Ben looks like aQB playing with a bad knee. Not getting any body into his throws. No rotation of the hips. Leaning back or all arm. Showing it and slow releasing it. I don mean holding the ball. I mean the ball is not coming out of his hand with speed.
I give the Cincy QB a lot of credit. He took a pounding, hung in there and did not make the big mistake.
That said, the Steelers if they just kept penetrating up the middle would have negated his runs. We gave him creases. We could have smothered him. He was not that fast or elusive. We gave him the two big runs in their TD drive with how we played things.
That said, the Steelers if they just kept penetrating up the middle would have negated his runs. We gave him creases. We could have smothered him. He was not that fast or elusive. We gave him the two big runs in their TD drive with how we played things.
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
-
My guess as to why this site is STILL in 'no mans land' at the moment
- Latest: Guyasuta Genac
-
