Steelers vs Bengals Game Thread

[Panther Holla]

The Night They Tore the Steelers Down.

 

[revampedpanthers]

The o-line is awful. Villanueva is done. I really can't fault the defense. This is probably a 17-10 win without the turnovers. They need major help on offense along the line, and they need a stud running back. They need Ben's replacement, but may have to go the veteran route for a year when Ben leaves. The line and backfield have to be the priority, a lineman and a back should be the first two picks, doesn't matter what order. If a stud lineman is there in the first round, take him. If not, take one of the stud backs that will certainly still be there, and then take a lineman second. A free agent lineman would also be nice.

They need to completely rebuild the ol. I wouldn't bring back al,fieler, or pouncey. Tell Ben it's over and draft a bunch of ol. Not worried about the rb as I would pick a cheap one up for 2021. I would take a flier on one of the young qbs who hasn't panned out at their current team trubitski or darnold type. If they play well you can build around them but if not you stink in 2021 and draft a QB in the first. Of course if a qb they love falls to them in this draft you take them.

 

[PittAU]

As long as Ben was able to rescue them the OL could be overlooked. It is horrible. It needs a complete rebuild. The run blocking has been atrocious for years. Bell was able to overcome that with his unique style. The guys they have now can't.

The injuries on defense have been horrible, so they get a bit of a pass.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Her is an article from 2005 that might be the first to explain why you should almost always go for 2 when down by 14 late in the game ...... he uses 43% as usual success rate on 2 point conversions (it has varied from 40-50% in college over many years) and 94% for one point conversions (was 96-97% in 2016 in college) ...... he explains his reasoning in detail mathematically and derives formulas that can be used ..... it's much of what you said only even more detailed but pretty easy to follow.

At the end of the day, he shows, just as you pointed out, that if you are down by 14 late in the game, your best chance of winning is to go for 2 points after the first TD then decide what is best after the 2nd TD which makes it more significantly likely you will win then if you kick extra points after both TD's (or go for 2 after the second TD if you miss the extra point after the first TD), and the worst chance of winning is to kick an extra point after the first TD and if you make it, try a 2 pointer after the 2nd TD ...... there are only a couple reasons not to go for 2 after the first TD and they are EXCEEDINGLY RARE.... Check link below ......

https://thesportjournal.org/article/playing-with-the-percentages-when-trailing-by-two-touchdowns/

In the NFL 2018 and 2019 teams made two pointers at a 49.4% rate, and they made extra points at a 94.1% rate. Which means that if you had a completely average kicker and were absolutely average at making two pointers you would have been better off going for two after every single touchdown that you scored (obviously with some game state exceptions).

 

[Dan1911]

Ben no longer worth the money. Shades of Willie Mays stumbling in the outfield. Cast aside and rebuild. Paying him his obscene 2021 salary is Foolhardy.