Earlier today, I sat down to find out about something:
Is Pitt taking the ball when it wins the coin toss more this season than in the past?
Well, there was only one way to find out: go through every one of Pitt's 124 games with Pat Narduzzi as head coach, tally them all up and see what comes out. The result, as you might have guessed, is that yes, Pitt is taking the ball more this year than in previous years. By a lot.
Here are numbers:
- Pitt has won the coin toss 58 times in the Narduzzi era.
- Of those 58 wins, Pitt has taken the ball 8 times.
- That's not that crazy; most teams do opt to defer. For example, Pitt's opponents since 2015 have won the coin toss 66 times and taken the ball 13 times. So Narduzzi is more or less in line with that.
- However, this year is especially notable. Pitt has won the coin toss 6 times this season and taken the ball on 4 of those.
- So 8 total times in almost 10 full seasons, and 4 of those 8 have come this season.
- Incidentally, the four game-opening drives when Pitt took the ball produced 3 punts and 1 touchdown (the touchdown came against Youngstown State).
- Prior to this season, the last time Pitt took the ball after winning the toss was the Georgia Tech game in Week Three of the 2018 season.
- That's 5 full seasons (2019-23) when Pitt deferred every time it won the toss. Until this year.
- So what changed? I asked Narduzzi today. Here's what he said:
"We sit in our staff meeting…and we talk every week, like, ‘What do we want to do?’ It's based on who we're playing. I'm not gonna tell you what we're going to do, but, you know, the vast majority of guys in here say, ‘Let's take the ball, let's go down and score, let's be aggressive.’
“You know, Michigan State, you can count them up there, go back and count and if we win the coin toss, I bet you there's not one time we ever didn't take the ball. You know, we started off young and, defensively, we said, ‘Let's take the offense, going to score some points, we're going fast, let's go get up on people, and it's great.’ I tell you what, it's fun to play defense when it's 7-0, but, you know, I think it's a feel thing, it's a weather thing, it's a wind thing.
“If you think you're getting second half wind, wind and rain, so there's a lot of things that go into it. I do want to get the ball down to the Panther Pitt in the fourth quarter. That's one thing I want. Big plays are made in that Panther Pitt area, so we'd like to be down there, a lot of memorable plays down there.”
- I don't know if that clears anything up, other than to say the offensive staff is encouraging Narduzzi to take the ball.
- On a different note, in 63 games over those 5 seasons from 2019-23, Pitt only won the toss 25 times. Pitt won the toss just 2 times in 11 games in 2020 and 4 times in 14 games in 2021. Pitt lost the coin toss in each of the first 9 games of the 2019 season and the final 9 games of the 2020 season.
- The opening drives of Pitt's 124 games under Narduzzi - for both teams - have produced 60 punts, 34 touchdowns (including 3 kick return touchdowns - 2 by Pitt and 1 by UNC in 2017), 16 field goals, 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles and 3 turnovers on downs, 1 safety (New Hampshire in 2021) and 1 missed field goal. So 50 out of 124 (40.3%) resulted in points for the team that got the ball on the game-opening drive.
- Pitt is equally unlucky at winning the coin toss at home and on the road. At home, Pitt has won the coin toss 31 times and lost 36. On the road, the W-L is 27-30.
- That includes 8 neutral-field games (6 bowls and 2 ACC Championship Games). Pitt has been the road team in 6 of those neutral field games (the 2015 Military Bowl, the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl, the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl, the 2021 ACC Championship Game, the 2021 Peach Bowl and the 2022 Sun Bowl). Pitt was the home team in the 2018 ACC Championship Game and the 2018 Sun Bowl.
- Pitt is 2-4 as the road team in neutral-field coin tosses and 1-1 as the home team in such games. On all 3 of Pitt's neutral-field coin toss wins, the Panthers deferred (2019 Eastern Michigan scored a field goal, 2018 Clemson scored a touchdown and 2016 Northwestern punted).
- Narduzzi has taken the ball after winning the toss on the road 2 times since 2015, and both were at Georgia Tech (2015 and 2017). Both of those drives resulted in touchdowns.
Is Pitt taking the ball when it wins the coin toss more this season than in the past?
Well, there was only one way to find out: go through every one of Pitt's 124 games with Pat Narduzzi as head coach, tally them all up and see what comes out. The result, as you might have guessed, is that yes, Pitt is taking the ball more this year than in previous years. By a lot.
Here are numbers:
- Pitt has won the coin toss 58 times in the Narduzzi era.
- Of those 58 wins, Pitt has taken the ball 8 times.
- That's not that crazy; most teams do opt to defer. For example, Pitt's opponents since 2015 have won the coin toss 66 times and taken the ball 13 times. So Narduzzi is more or less in line with that.
- However, this year is especially notable. Pitt has won the coin toss 6 times this season and taken the ball on 4 of those.
- So 8 total times in almost 10 full seasons, and 4 of those 8 have come this season.
- Incidentally, the four game-opening drives when Pitt took the ball produced 3 punts and 1 touchdown (the touchdown came against Youngstown State).
- Prior to this season, the last time Pitt took the ball after winning the toss was the Georgia Tech game in Week Three of the 2018 season.
- That's 5 full seasons (2019-23) when Pitt deferred every time it won the toss. Until this year.
- So what changed? I asked Narduzzi today. Here's what he said:
"We sit in our staff meeting…and we talk every week, like, ‘What do we want to do?’ It's based on who we're playing. I'm not gonna tell you what we're going to do, but, you know, the vast majority of guys in here say, ‘Let's take the ball, let's go down and score, let's be aggressive.’
“You know, Michigan State, you can count them up there, go back and count and if we win the coin toss, I bet you there's not one time we ever didn't take the ball. You know, we started off young and, defensively, we said, ‘Let's take the offense, going to score some points, we're going fast, let's go get up on people, and it's great.’ I tell you what, it's fun to play defense when it's 7-0, but, you know, I think it's a feel thing, it's a weather thing, it's a wind thing.
“If you think you're getting second half wind, wind and rain, so there's a lot of things that go into it. I do want to get the ball down to the Panther Pitt in the fourth quarter. That's one thing I want. Big plays are made in that Panther Pitt area, so we'd like to be down there, a lot of memorable plays down there.”
- I don't know if that clears anything up, other than to say the offensive staff is encouraging Narduzzi to take the ball.
- On a different note, in 63 games over those 5 seasons from 2019-23, Pitt only won the toss 25 times. Pitt won the toss just 2 times in 11 games in 2020 and 4 times in 14 games in 2021. Pitt lost the coin toss in each of the first 9 games of the 2019 season and the final 9 games of the 2020 season.
- The opening drives of Pitt's 124 games under Narduzzi - for both teams - have produced 60 punts, 34 touchdowns (including 3 kick return touchdowns - 2 by Pitt and 1 by UNC in 2017), 16 field goals, 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles and 3 turnovers on downs, 1 safety (New Hampshire in 2021) and 1 missed field goal. So 50 out of 124 (40.3%) resulted in points for the team that got the ball on the game-opening drive.
- Pitt is equally unlucky at winning the coin toss at home and on the road. At home, Pitt has won the coin toss 31 times and lost 36. On the road, the W-L is 27-30.
- That includes 8 neutral-field games (6 bowls and 2 ACC Championship Games). Pitt has been the road team in 6 of those neutral field games (the 2015 Military Bowl, the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl, the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl, the 2021 ACC Championship Game, the 2021 Peach Bowl and the 2022 Sun Bowl). Pitt was the home team in the 2018 ACC Championship Game and the 2018 Sun Bowl.
- Pitt is 2-4 as the road team in neutral-field coin tosses and 1-1 as the home team in such games. On all 3 of Pitt's neutral-field coin toss wins, the Panthers deferred (2019 Eastern Michigan scored a field goal, 2018 Clemson scored a touchdown and 2016 Northwestern punted).
- Narduzzi has taken the ball after winning the toss on the road 2 times since 2015, and both were at Georgia Tech (2015 and 2017). Both of those drives resulted in touchdowns.
