Palm, whom I put more credence than JL, has Clemson as a 6 seed, UVA a 10 and Pitt the first team out. Some random thoughts:
- UVA seems to be a lock even with an expected QF loss to Clemson. Their Quads are good with no bad losses and another Q1 loss won’t hurt them.
- That guarantees the league with the best tourney record by far over the last 2 years (21-10), a minimal 4 bids.
- The Pitt/Wake winner could then get the 5th bid if there is one to be had. Wake isn’t in Palm‘s next 4 out but most brackets have Wake (37) ahead of Pitt (44)
- Pitt‘s poor NCSOS makes it an easy target for the committee to explain away. Pitt beating Wake would also leave Pitt with only 2 wins over tourney teams (although both would be impressive road wins)
- having Syracuse (79) and NC State (80) barely missing the 75 cutoff really skews Pitt’s quads for the worse. Pitt also has Top 100 wins against BC and FSU, if you visually plotted wins using the NET, it might tell a different story than these hard cutoffs. If I was on the committee, I would have a scatter plot visual created for the bubble teams to actually see where the wins and losses fall within the ranges and also color code home and away games. That would make for a more meaningful discussion.
A Pitt-UNC Friday night semifinal would garner a chance for Pitt to score eye test points, even in a loss. I believe that and perhaps the impressive road record could earn a return ticket to Dayton.
- UVA seems to be a lock even with an expected QF loss to Clemson. Their Quads are good with no bad losses and another Q1 loss won’t hurt them.
- That guarantees the league with the best tourney record by far over the last 2 years (21-10), a minimal 4 bids.
- The Pitt/Wake winner could then get the 5th bid if there is one to be had. Wake isn’t in Palm‘s next 4 out but most brackets have Wake (37) ahead of Pitt (44)
- Pitt‘s poor NCSOS makes it an easy target for the committee to explain away. Pitt beating Wake would also leave Pitt with only 2 wins over tourney teams (although both would be impressive road wins)
- having Syracuse (79) and NC State (80) barely missing the 75 cutoff really skews Pitt’s quads for the worse. Pitt also has Top 100 wins against BC and FSU, if you visually plotted wins using the NET, it might tell a different story than these hard cutoffs. If I was on the committee, I would have a scatter plot visual created for the bubble teams to actually see where the wins and losses fall within the ranges and also color code home and away games. That would make for a more meaningful discussion.
A Pitt-UNC Friday night semifinal would garner a chance for Pitt to score eye test points, even in a loss. I believe that and perhaps the impressive road record could earn a return ticket to Dayton.
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