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Underwhelmed by our commits

im going to go out on a limb and predict that we will have filled our scholarship allotment by the time LOI day comes around, which will include a few OL and a few DL.

I know im going out on a limb but i just feel like we are going to do this.

The best is when people say this staff is crushing it just because we get 4 commits in a day... before we even know who the commits are.

Woohoo, we found some kids who want to play college football at the highest level available and go to college for free!

Like, does anyone seriously think there's a chance we won't be able to find enough players who want a scholarship?
 
The best is when people say this staff is crushing it just because we get 4 commits in a day... before we even know who the commits are.

Woohoo, we found some kids who want to play college football at the highest level available and go to college for free!
i completely agree with that too. that was always weird to me. since we got them to verbal in june and not october, we are crushing it..

no argument there from me..
 
wasnt that "wanny had a stellar class lined up" myth debunked. i swear we went thru this before.

Gary nova and some 5 star RB who ended up coming here a 1/2 decade later as a walk on LB was the heart of this "stellar" recruiting class.



found this in the archives, a thread from 21 on this stellar class..

 
We're paying Narduzzi in the top 3 of all coaches and we're not getting top 3 (or anywhere near it) recruiting results.

But maybe we're getting results that are better than other coaches would get at Pitt, a school with more limited recruiting capabilities than most.
 
wasnt that "wanny had a stellar class lined up" myth debunked. i swear we went thru this before.

Gary nova and some 5 star RB who ended up coming here a 1/2 decade later as a walk on LB was the heart of this "stellar" recruiting class.
Besides that, his classes were inflated by that Lichtenfels guy. They were never as good as advertised.
 
Yet here you are, commenting in a recruiting thread.

Off the top of my head, I could name exactly one recruit we have in this class. It's as if there is a difference between not following it too closely, which is exactly what I said, and not following it at all.
 
The rest of the weekends' commits are TBD. I'll say this though, a 5'10 170lbs WR is probably not going to be a highly rated recruit in most cases. Even Xavier Worthy, who was a really good player, was still only a 4 star. You're just going to have a hard time getting noticed without NFL size and skills. Our WRs and TEs don't have that.

Worthy just barely missed the 5* cut off.
He was a 4*, but he was closer to a 5* in his ranking than he was a 3*.
 
Off the top of my head, I could name exactly one recruit we have in this class. It's as if there is a difference between not following it too closely, which is exactly what I said, and not following it at all.
i've quit following the names myself. NIL and re-recruiting every kid on roster every off season really makes it hard to care about all that much about recruiting. Add in the fact that we basically quit recruiting wpial kids too and it's hard to know the names of 3 star kids from florida and olney MD areas..
 
He just hasn’t landed many highly rated 4* guys.

Most of his 4* commits just barely made the 4* cut off. They were 4*, but with recruit ranking that was basically a 3*. .89 or .90 or .91 type rankings.

It looks like Donald will be the exception. But if you look at the composite ranking of the 4* guys that had a legit 4* ranking, he’s actually hit with most of them.
There have just been very few of them.

I was looking at it more from a "4 star on at least one site" perspective. If you go by that, it adds a lot more guys to the mix: Ruben Flowers, Thomas MacVittie, Davis Beville, and quite a few more. But here is the Composite 4-star list:

Chris Clark - bust
Whitehead - hit
Hall - hit, but not to a 4-star extent
Hamlin - hit
Camp - hit, but not to 4-star extent (injuries contributed to that)
Ford - hit, but I think I saw a flag for targeting
Sibley - bust
Reeves - bust
AJ Davis - bust
Salahuddin - bust
Addison - hit
Hayes - hit, but not to 4-star extent
Donald - bust
Brown - bust
Johnson - bust
Baer - TBD
Bass - TBD

So still not too great.
 
Worthy just barely missed the 5* cut off.
He was a 4*, but he was closer to a 5* in his ranking than he was a 3*.
I saw him ranked on 247 and he was 100 overall. That's not that close to 5*.

Look at the higher ranked WR recruits:

- Emeka Egbuka 6'1" 190lbs
- Ja'Corey Brooks 6'3" 185lbs
- Troy Franklin 6'2" 170lbs
- Chris Hilton 6' 169lbs
- Agiye Hall 6'3" 190lbs
- Deion Smith 6'1" 172lbs
- Brian Thomas Jr. 6'4" 190lbs
- Lonnie White Jr. 6'2" 210lbs
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. - 6'4" 185lbs
- JoJo Earle - 5'10" 170lbs
- Xavier Worthy - 6'1" 160lbs

Now a lot of these are funny numbers because Worthy's combine measurements were 5'11" 165lbs. But according to the 247 list, he was tied for 2nd shortest and was easily the lightest.

My point being that it's just very difficult to be a superstar recruit without the measurables. Our guys don't have the measureables, so they won't be highly rated. Now they may also be bad players, too, but I think this data suggests that to some extent very small WR just get dinged, even if they're amazing.
 
i've quit following the names myself. NIL and re-recruiting every kid on roster every off season really makes it hard to care about all that much about recruiting. Add in the fact that we basically quit recruiting wpial kids too and it's hard to know the names of 3 star kids from florida and olney MD areas..

Yeah, I'm slowly creeping back to where I was pre 2015. Went to the games and knew the starters, but I didn't follow recruiting closely and couldn't have told you who many - if not most - of the other 63 players were.
 
Off the top of my head, I could name exactly one recruit we have in this class. It's as if there is a difference between not following it too closely, which is exactly what I said, and not following it at all.
Seems you do care more than I do then. I do care and yet, I couldn't name a single recruit. Individual names are meaningless at this point.
 
I was looking at it more from a "4 star on at least one site" perspective. If you go by that, it adds a lot more guys to the mix: Ruben Flowers, Thomas MacVittie, Davis Beville, and quite a few more. But here is the Composite 4-star list:

Chris Clark - bust
Whitehead - hit
Hall - hit, but not to a 4-star extent
Hamlin - hit
Camp - hit, but not to 4-star extent (injuries contributed to that)
Ford - hit, but I think I saw a flag for targeting
Sibley - bust
Reeves - bust
AJ Davis - bust
Salahuddin - bust
Addison - hit
Hayes - hit, but not to 4-star extent
Donald - bust
Brown - bust
Johnson - bust
Baer - TBD
Bass - TBD

So still not too great.
That just may suggest something about relying on the recruiting services.
 
i've quit following the names myself. NIL and re-recruiting every kid on roster every off season really makes it hard to care about all that much about recruiting. Add in the fact that we basically quit recruiting wpial kids too and it's hard to know the names of 3 star kids from florida and olney MD areas..

I can't name 1 recruit. I barely paid attention to recruiting before NIL. Now its even more pointless. If they are really good, they will leave and we'll have to backfill.
 
Seems you do care more than I do then. I do care and yet, I couldn't name a single recruit. Individual names are meaningless at this point.
lol, true. im guilty too. i say i dont care anymore about recruiting but if i see a pat signal, im dropping what im doing and finding out who it is, what offers they have and their star rating..

so yeah, we are all full of Crap.
 
I was looking at it more from a "4 star on at least one site" perspective. If you go by that, it adds a lot more guys to the mix: Ruben Flowers, Thomas MacVittie, Davis Beville, and quite a few more. But here is the Composite 4-star list:

Chris Clark - bust
Whitehead - hit
Hall - hit, but not to a 4-star extent
Hamlin - hit
Camp - hit, but not to 4-star extent (injuries contributed to that)
Ford - hit, but I think I saw a flag for targeting
Sibley - bust
Reeves - bust
AJ Davis - bust
Salahuddin - bust
Addison - hit
Hayes - hit, but not to 4-star extent
Donald - bust
Brown - bust
Johnson - bust
Baer - TBD
Bass - TBD

So still not too great.

but that’s because most of them didn’t have a great ranking.

Stars don’t matter per se. They only matter to the extent that they are a shortcut for us to talk about talent acquisition.

A 4* on 247 is anybody from a .9832 to a .8901.

But from a can’t miss perspective, the .9832 4* is closer to the .9837 5* than he is the .8901 4*. I would say 8901 and .9832 recruits have nothing in common. They are completely different animals, forced in the same 4* cage together.

Narduzzi hasn’t really had a 4* hit rate problem, when you look at the ones with a legit 4* ranking. It’s that most of his 4* players have been closer to the .8901 quality than the .9832 quality. They might as well be 3*.

Looking at his 4* recruiting:

Hamlin had a .9327 ranking. So closer to a legit 4* ranking than many. Although still not closer to a 5* than 3*. He was a hit.

Paris Ford 96 rating, so closer to 5* than 3*, and he was a hit.

Salahuddin 93 rating and a miss.

Addison 94 rating and a hit.

Israel had a 93 and was a hit.

Dayton Hayes was a 93 and a hit.

Donald 94 and a bust

Bass a 93 and looking promising I think

That’s it. Those are the only players on 247 during Narduzzi that had a player quality rating of 93+, so gave them a little 4* breathing room.

That’s a pretty good hit rate.

If you have a very low 4* rating, it doesn’t matter which site gave it to you. Your chances of hitting are still small, because you’re a photo finish away from being a 3*.

Most of the busts fall into that category, so of course they have something closer to 3* miss rate.
 
I saw him ranked on 247 and he was 100 overall. That's not that close to 5*.

Look at the higher ranked WR recruits:

- Emeka Egbuka 6'1" 190lbs
- Ja'Corey Brooks 6'3" 185lbs
- Troy Franklin 6'2" 170lbs
- Chris Hilton 6' 169lbs
- Agiye Hall 6'3" 190lbs
- Deion Smith 6'1" 172lbs
- Brian Thomas Jr. 6'4" 190lbs
- Lonnie White Jr. 6'2" 210lbs
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. - 6'4" 185lbs
- JoJo Earle - 5'10" 170lbs
- Xavier Worthy - 6'1" 160lbs

Now a lot of these are funny numbers because Worthy's combine measurements were 5'11" 165lbs. But according to the 247 list, he was tied for 2nd shortest and was easily the lightest.

My point being that it's just very difficult to be a superstar recruit without the measurables. Our guys don't have the measureables, so they won't be highly rated. Now they may also be bad players, too, but I think this data suggests that to some extent very small WR just get dinged, even if they're amazing.
Rivals, for one, states that it includes physical attributes in its ratings. Small players are lower rated than a bigger player with the same skill set.
 
I saw him ranked on 247 and he was 100 overall. That's not that close to 5*.

Look at the higher ranked WR recruits:

- Emeka Egbuka 6'1" 190lbs
- Ja'Corey Brooks 6'3" 185lbs
- Troy Franklin 6'2" 170lbs
- Chris Hilton 6' 169lbs
- Agiye Hall 6'3" 190lbs
- Deion Smith 6'1" 172lbs
- Brian Thomas Jr. 6'4" 190lbs
- Lonnie White Jr. 6'2" 210lbs
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. - 6'4" 185lbs
- JoJo Earle - 5'10" 170lbs
- Xavier Worthy - 6'1" 160lbs

Now a lot of these are funny numbers because Worthy's combine measurements were 5'11" 165lbs. But according to the 247 list, he was tied for 2nd shortest and was easily the lightest.

My point being that it's just very difficult to be a superstar recruit without the measurables. Our guys don't have the measureables, so they won't be highly rated. Now they may also be bad players, too, but I think this data suggests that to some extent very small WR just get dinged, even if they're amazing.

The current number 1 WR recruit on 247 is 5-11 and 175 pounds.

It’s difficult to be a superstar recruit if you don’t have any superstar traits. Small WRs that have some superstar traits, tend to be ranked accordingly.

Most just don’t.
 
I saw him ranked on 247 and he was 100 overall. That's not that close to 5*.

You aren’t looking at his industry ranking.
His composite across all recruiting sites was .9712 and 62nd overall recruit in the country.

I’m not sure how much better you want a recruit to be ranked? That’s a pretty special ranking.
 
Throw out last year and the return on investment has been solid. Remember, we started a QB last year that could not throw a freakin football!
Yes, we started a QB last year "could not throw a freakin football" because PN hired an OC who couldn't tell that his QB couldn't throw a freaken' football and PN was too thick headed to assert control over his OC. I'm not seeing how that doesn't fall squarely on PN.
 
Yes, we started a QB last year "could not throw a freakin football" because PN hired an OC who couldn't tell that his QB couldn't throw a freaken' football and PN was too thick headed to assert control over his OC. I'm not seeing how that doesn't fall squarely on PN.
striking similarities between narduzzi and tomlin. both made horrid hires at OC and trusted their offense in some inept hands with canada and cignetti. both rid themselves of this and somehow, got the blame solely on Canada/CIgnetti and avoided the blame..

by doing so, both bought themselves some time with the steeler and panther fans as they've taken a "well lets wait and see how the new OC does before blaming the HC." When in reality, you are right, those disastrous hires were made by the HC and blame should fall on them..
 
but that’s because most of them didn’t have a great ranking.

Stars don’t matter per se. They only matter to the extent that they are a shortcut for us to talk about talent acquisition.

A 4* on 247 is anybody from a .9832 to a .8901.

But from a can’t miss perspective, the .9832 4* is closer to the .9837 5* than he is the .8901 4*. I would say 8901 and .9832 recruits have nothing in common. They are completely different animals, forced in the same 4* cage together.

Narduzzi hasn’t really had a 4* hit rate problem, when you look at the ones with a legit 4* ranking. It’s that most of his 4* players have been closer to the .8901 quality than the .9832 quality. They might as well be 3*.

Looking at his 4* recruiting:

Hamlin had a .9327 ranking. So closer to a legit 4* ranking than many. Although still not closer to a 5* than 3*. He was a hit.

Paris Ford 96 rating, so closer to 5* than 3*, and he was a hit.

Salahuddin 93 rating and a miss.

Addison 94 rating and a hit.

Israel had a 93 and was a hit.

Dayton Hayes was a 93 and a hit.

Donald 94 and a bust

Bass a 93 and looking promising I think

That’s it. Those are the only players on 247 during Narduzzi that had a player quality rating of 93+, so gave them a little 4* breathing room.

That’s a pretty good hit rate.

If you have a very low 4* rating, it doesn’t matter which site gave it to you. Your chances of hitting are still small, because you’re a photo finish away from being a 3*.

Most of the busts fall into that category, so of course they have something closer to 3* miss rate.

That's using 247, though, not Composite. MacVittie is definitely one that would be missing from that list under the 247 rankings - he was a 95. And Chris Clark was a 93, etc.

Edit: Never mind; you said "on 247," not "using 247 rankings." I was going to say - 247 has had some really goofy 4-star rankings over the years. Che, Brandon George, and some other head scratchers.

And I agree there is some variation in 4 stars, but it's nothing like 3 stars. The better 3 stars play in the SEC; the lower 3 stars don't even always play FBS.
 
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I’m pretty sure Narduzzi gets paid for his overall performance not recruiting rankings .

One could argue he’s not top 3 in wins / losses either - but he’s certainly top 1/3 .
True but the thread is specifically about recruiting hence the focus on his recruiting results.
 
That's using 247, though, not Composite. MacVittie is definitely one that would be missing from that list under the 247 rankings - he was a 95. And Chris Clark was a 93, etc.

Edit: Never mind; you said "on 247," not "using 247 rankings." I was going to say - 247 has had some really goofy 4-star rankings over the years. Che, Brandon George, and some other head scratchers.

And I agree there is some variation in 4 stars, but it's nothing like 3 stars. The better 3 stars play in the SEC; the lower 3 stars don't even always play FBS.
MacVittie is a great example of the flaws in the "star" system. Big, athletic kid who played WR and never started a HS game at QB until his senior year--in which he only played in 7 games. Had a couple underwhelming offers when Pitt offered him. Then LSU came in after the Pitt offer as Les Miles was in his last year and desperate for a QB. Suddenly MacVittie is a "highly recruited player" and a 4 star, even though he had a total of 5 offers, only two of which were P5s.
 
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Objectively on paper the class of 2025 looks to be something approaching a historic low point for Pitt in terms of the offer sheets and who Pitt is competing against for this class. I suppose that's the new reality of the NIL era for schools that don't have much juice. Pitt is by no means alone among P5s in this respect, there are many mid-tier P5s from across the country that are finding themselves in the same boat or worse.

The obvious problem is, you recruit MAC players, you can expect MAC level football.
I'm not so sure about this. You'd have to compare offers of guys when they committed rather than offers they had by recruting year end. It always seems they uncover guys who were overlooked that higher profile teams end up coming after. Probably so for a lot of the schools like the mid-tier P5s you mentioned.
 
i have my doubts about these alleged offer sheets as well. no one knows if these offers are committable or not, heck, 1/2 the time the recruit doesnt even know.. some kids gets a call from a P5 asst coach asking how he is during his soph year and the kid tweets it out, then boards like this say he has an offer, full well knowing most times the team would never take it..
 
but that’s because most of them didn’t have a great ranking.

Stars don’t matter per se. They only matter to the extent that they are a shortcut for us to talk about talent acquisition.

A 4* on 247 is anybody from a .9832 to a .8901.

But from a can’t miss perspective, the .9832 4* is closer to the .9837 5* than he is the .8901 4*. I would say 8901 and .9832 recruits have nothing in common. They are completely different animals, forced in the same 4* cage together.

Narduzzi hasn’t really had a 4* hit rate problem, when you look at the ones with a legit 4* ranking. It’s that most of his 4* players have been closer to the .8901 quality than the .9832 quality. They might as well be 3*.

Looking at his 4* recruiting:

Hamlin had a .9327 ranking. So closer to a legit 4* ranking than many. Although still not closer to a 5* than 3*. He was a hit.

Paris Ford 96 rating, so closer to 5* than 3*, and he was a hit.

Salahuddin 93 rating and a miss.

Addison 94 rating and a hit.

Israel had a 93 and was a hit.

Dayton Hayes was a 93 and a hit.

Donald 94 and a bust

Bass a 93 and looking promising I think

That’s it. Those are the only players on 247 during Narduzzi that had a player quality rating of 93+, so gave them a little 4* breathing room.

That’s a pretty good hit rate.

If you have a very low 4* rating, it doesn’t matter which site gave it to you. Your chances of hitting are still small, because you’re a photo finish away from being a 3*.

Most of the busts fall into that category, so of course they have something closer to 3* miss rate.
Izzy was a 86 when he committed
Hayes an 87
Bass an 88
Addison a 90

Just adding to previous posts that a lot of things change with these young men before they're done playing HS football.
 
i have my doubts about these alleged offer sheets as well. no one knows if these offers are committable or not, heck, 1/2 the time the recruit doesnt even know.. some kids gets a call from a P5 asst coach asking how he is during his soph year and the kid tweets it out, then boards like this say he has an offer, full well knowing most times the team would never take it..

The best was that dude who committed to us and then flipped to UNC. He kept tweeting all these offers (like Alabama and whatnot), and they were getting listed on his recruiting profile. But then Peak something like, "Uh, so I talked to the Rivals guys at such and such, and they never even heard of this dude."


Lol, he was a straight 2-starish kid who built his own recruiting profile, basically.

Edit, found his profile. Michigan, Florida State, Miami, Penn State, Tennessee, Nebraska, Texas... lol, pretty sure it's all BS.
 
The best was that dude who committed to us and then flipped to UNC. He kept tweeting all these offers (like Alabama and whatnot), and they were getting listed on his recruiting profile. But then Peak something like, "Uh, so I talked to the Rivals guys at such and such, and they never even heard of this dude."


Lol, he was a straight 2-starish kid who built his own recruiting profile, basically.
well we've all been known to exaggerate such things from time to time.. i am still somewhat convinced that Linda Florentino was hitting on me at a bar in dormont back in the late 90s..
 
MacVittie is a great example of the flaws in the "star" system. Big, athletic kid who played WR and never started a HS game at QB until his senior year--in which he only played in 7 games. Had a couple underwhelming offers when Pitt offered him. Then LSU came in after the Pitt offer as Les Miles was in his last year and desperate for a QB. Suddenly MacVittie is a "highly recruited player" and a 4 star, even though he had a total of 5 offers, only two of which were P5s.

I've always maintained that you can tell who the real studs are. It's a combination of offers and recruiting rankings, honestly. And I'm not talking about offers they got when they were 15, but rather ones who had nice suitors pursuing them all the way until signing day. Because let's be honest: a Pitt commitment is not going to deter schools like Miami, Ohio State, and Michigan from continuing to recruit a guy.

For the most part, though, the logic runs somewhat circularly because recruiting rankings are no doubt influenced by offers. So, while they're not always exact, I think the recruiting rankings do a decent job. The statistics (% of 5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars, etc. who make the NFL) are impossible to deny.
 
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I think just makes it more and more of a crapshoot.
It's a crapshoot Pitt needs to stay far away from. Talent evaluation is an inexact science, at best. I still say best bang-for-the-buck is offering the backups at the tier 1 schools, $100-200K on one-year deals. You obviously will need 10-15 of such players.

And to get that you will need to pay a GM-type employee. I am not holding my breath for any "salary cap" compromise from the Alabama/tOSU contingent. Not gonna happen unless something happens, i.e. oligarch comes in and throws a billion at a Stanford to field a team - only THEN will there be compromise.
 
It's a crapshoot Pitt needs to stay far away from. Talent evaluation is an inexact science, at best. I still say best bang-for-the-buck is offering the backups at the tier 1 schools, $100-200K on one-year deals. You obviously will need 10-15 of such players.

And to get that you will need to pay a GM-type employee. I am not holding my breath for any "salary cap" compromise from the Alabama/tOSU contingent. Not gonna happen unless something happens, i.e. oligarch comes in and throws a billion at a Stanford to field a team - only THEN will there be compromise.

Special seasons are the result of special players.
Have a bunch of special players, and you can have a really special season.
Constantly have special players, and you’ll constantly have special seasons.

And special players are players that, if you could re-recruit that cycle, they would be wanted by big time programs. Addison, Kancey, etc.

Is being a backup at certain schools definitive evidence that you aren’t going to be special? No.

But is it some evidence that, if you re-recruited the cycle, you probably wouldn’t be targeted by that school again? Yes.

Paying for most backups is going to be like buying already scratched lottery tickets.
 
I’m pretty sure Narduzzi gets paid for his overall performance not recruiting rankings .

One could argue he’s not top 3 in wins / losses either - but he’s certainly top 1/3 .
Actually, Narduzzi is in a virtual tie for 5-6 place in ACC league W's and L's. You could say that Narduzzi has slightly out performed his recruiting rankings. Not horrible, but nothing to write home about. The larger point is that if we keep recruiting in the 7-9 range, we're very likely to be in the middle of the pack. If you're good with that, then you should be a happy camper.
 
It's a crapshoot Pitt needs to stay far away from. Talent evaluation is an inexact science, at best. I still say best bang-for-the-buck is offering the backups at the tier 1 schools, $100-200K on one-year deals. You obviously will need 10-15 of such players.

And to get that you will need to pay a GM-type employee. I am not holding my breath for any "salary cap" compromise from the Alabama/tOSU contingent. Not gonna happen unless something happens, i.e. oligarch comes in and throws a billion at a Stanford to field a team - only THEN will there be compromise.

Yea. Im not sure the going rate. How much do Bama and OSU backups make? My guess is that these blue chippers are brought in on very expensive 1 year deals but then it drops significantly in Year 2 if they dont crack the starting lineup. I dont know that for sure but I dont see how Bama can pay 85 guys a minimum of 500K. So, yea, I think Pitt needs to focus on recruiting the reserves from Bama and OSU type schools. And yes, I think Pitt and schools like it need a GM position.
 
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