Non Conference Review
Team DRTG Defensive Rating by game
St. Francis-112.2
Drexel-105.3
Northern Illinois-96.9
Northwestern-87.3
Gardner Webb- 69.9
Substantial improvement game by game on defense and every game the defense has gotten better. The game against Gardner Webb was better than anything Virginia or Texas Tech have done on defense all year, it was that good for that 1 particular game. With a roster this young, it is good to see improvement happening. If we can play defense somewhere in between the level of what we showed the last 2 games, we will win our share of ACC games. The message should be clear to this team that defense wins games and we won the last 2 games with our defense.
Our 2 defensive studs 5 games in have not been who you think they are through 5 games. The charge is being led by Coulibaly DRTG of 86 (better than Gary Mcghee so far) and Odukale DRTG of 87 with a steal rate of 5, which is twice as high as anyone else on the roster. The length and wingspan from both have caused significant problems for the opposing team. Coulibaly’s defense against the hedge, help defense, ball screen, etc.. has been good across the board everywhere. His tenacity and aggressiveness and energy is lifting our defense up. I do not mind his foul trouble with how our defense has been trending forward. Champ’s defense has been substantially better the last 2 games. Champ’s overall effort on the defensive end has been much better as he isn’t taking plays off. Let’s hope this continues.
Rebounding
The team rebounding has been better as well even with all the misses. Big John Hugley continues to clean up the boards at a high level of OR 11.9 and DR 22.8 to Champ’s OR 11.3 and DR 27.9. These numbers are fantastic for both through 5 games. Coulibaly remains at OR 10 and DR 16.6 which is comparable to Mike Young OR 8.9 and DR 17.8 at this point. We need to get Toney rebounding much better on the defensive end. Jeffress was solid on the boards yesterday and I hope that trend continues. We are boxing out much better and sealing the interior better.
Offense ORTG Offensive Power Ranking through 5 games
Coulibaly-133.3
Champ-117.5
X-117.3
Toney-110.4
These numbers are really strong and continue to support a “big 4”. Coulibaly still needs more touches in the offense as he continues to shoot 60% for the season. Toney was due for a bad game after 4 really strong games in a row. Toney was simply nowhere near good last game and that is ok. The good news is we won going away last game without Toney being a star on either end of the floor.
After the big 4, we are looking very shaky on offense. We don’t have 1 other player over 90 ORTG on offense and that is bad news. The problem isn’t the set plays because we are getting clean looks. It certainly isn’t Femi Odukale who ran the offense just fine and set up his teammates well. The problem is we cant make wide open shots at any type of consistent level and we are still having problems with simple finishing near the rim. This is a game where Femi could have easily had another 4-5+ assists and ended up with 1 because no one could shoot the ball yesterday or finish. For example, another beautiful pass to Toney on the inside by Femi and Toney bounced it off his leg when he should have finished. Things are going to look smooth when shots fall. But this is becoming a trend that the overall team cannot make wide open shots with any type of consistency and cant finish near the basket. If you are looking for a glimmer of hope here, the major majority of Ithiel Horton’s misses on the year are short / long and not left / right, which is a good thing. I still have confidence Horton will pick it up after shooting 1-11 his last 2 games combined. Horton’s ORTG is 89.2 which isn’t terrible but isn’t anywhere near good either. He has to get going and we really could use Sibande out there.
We are 274th in the country in free throw percentage and we played 4 of our 5 games at home. We continue to miss the front end of 1 and 1’s. We have lost 5 games in the last 2 years by 3 points or less and that doesn’t include an overtime loss to Louisville which could have been won by making 1 extra free throw. Free throw shooting will burn this team in close games if this continues from the line.
All in all, I see improvement but we have a long way to go. If our defense continues to improve it will give us a chance to win our next 2 games as I think both are winnable. Our team rebounding has been better with back to back +20 on the boards. But I stand by what I said in the preseason. Before we start running into sagging 2-3 zones in the ACC, which is certainly coming very soon, we have to get some 3-point firepower and desperately need to get Horton and Sibande going to open up our offense. While my expectations for Femi’s "shooting" for the rest of the year is low coming off the broken arm, Im holding out hope we can get better contributions from Big John and Jeffress on offense as the season continues which would really help balance our offense.
4-1 on the year, onto the next one
Team DRTG Defensive Rating by game
St. Francis-112.2
Drexel-105.3
Northern Illinois-96.9
Northwestern-87.3
Gardner Webb- 69.9
Substantial improvement game by game on defense and every game the defense has gotten better. The game against Gardner Webb was better than anything Virginia or Texas Tech have done on defense all year, it was that good for that 1 particular game. With a roster this young, it is good to see improvement happening. If we can play defense somewhere in between the level of what we showed the last 2 games, we will win our share of ACC games. The message should be clear to this team that defense wins games and we won the last 2 games with our defense.
Our 2 defensive studs 5 games in have not been who you think they are through 5 games. The charge is being led by Coulibaly DRTG of 86 (better than Gary Mcghee so far) and Odukale DRTG of 87 with a steal rate of 5, which is twice as high as anyone else on the roster. The length and wingspan from both have caused significant problems for the opposing team. Coulibaly’s defense against the hedge, help defense, ball screen, etc.. has been good across the board everywhere. His tenacity and aggressiveness and energy is lifting our defense up. I do not mind his foul trouble with how our defense has been trending forward. Champ’s defense has been substantially better the last 2 games. Champ’s overall effort on the defensive end has been much better as he isn’t taking plays off. Let’s hope this continues.
Rebounding
The team rebounding has been better as well even with all the misses. Big John Hugley continues to clean up the boards at a high level of OR 11.9 and DR 22.8 to Champ’s OR 11.3 and DR 27.9. These numbers are fantastic for both through 5 games. Coulibaly remains at OR 10 and DR 16.6 which is comparable to Mike Young OR 8.9 and DR 17.8 at this point. We need to get Toney rebounding much better on the defensive end. Jeffress was solid on the boards yesterday and I hope that trend continues. We are boxing out much better and sealing the interior better.
Offense ORTG Offensive Power Ranking through 5 games
Coulibaly-133.3
Champ-117.5
X-117.3
Toney-110.4
These numbers are really strong and continue to support a “big 4”. Coulibaly still needs more touches in the offense as he continues to shoot 60% for the season. Toney was due for a bad game after 4 really strong games in a row. Toney was simply nowhere near good last game and that is ok. The good news is we won going away last game without Toney being a star on either end of the floor.
After the big 4, we are looking very shaky on offense. We don’t have 1 other player over 90 ORTG on offense and that is bad news. The problem isn’t the set plays because we are getting clean looks. It certainly isn’t Femi Odukale who ran the offense just fine and set up his teammates well. The problem is we cant make wide open shots at any type of consistent level and we are still having problems with simple finishing near the rim. This is a game where Femi could have easily had another 4-5+ assists and ended up with 1 because no one could shoot the ball yesterday or finish. For example, another beautiful pass to Toney on the inside by Femi and Toney bounced it off his leg when he should have finished. Things are going to look smooth when shots fall. But this is becoming a trend that the overall team cannot make wide open shots with any type of consistency and cant finish near the basket. If you are looking for a glimmer of hope here, the major majority of Ithiel Horton’s misses on the year are short / long and not left / right, which is a good thing. I still have confidence Horton will pick it up after shooting 1-11 his last 2 games combined. Horton’s ORTG is 89.2 which isn’t terrible but isn’t anywhere near good either. He has to get going and we really could use Sibande out there.
We are 274th in the country in free throw percentage and we played 4 of our 5 games at home. We continue to miss the front end of 1 and 1’s. We have lost 5 games in the last 2 years by 3 points or less and that doesn’t include an overtime loss to Louisville which could have been won by making 1 extra free throw. Free throw shooting will burn this team in close games if this continues from the line.
All in all, I see improvement but we have a long way to go. If our defense continues to improve it will give us a chance to win our next 2 games as I think both are winnable. Our team rebounding has been better with back to back +20 on the boards. But I stand by what I said in the preseason. Before we start running into sagging 2-3 zones in the ACC, which is certainly coming very soon, we have to get some 3-point firepower and desperately need to get Horton and Sibande going to open up our offense. While my expectations for Femi’s "shooting" for the rest of the year is low coming off the broken arm, Im holding out hope we can get better contributions from Big John and Jeffress on offense as the season continues which would really help balance our offense.
4-1 on the year, onto the next one
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