Weekend Bubble Game Thread

[Sean Miller Fan]

Lots of rooting to do so might as well start one.

Nevada down 11 to SJSU with 16:00 left. I suppose Nevada can win this game but this doesn't seem like a fluke. SJSU looks better. A Nevada loss bumps them below Pitt which would be HUGE.

 

[KennyHeisman8]

Lots of rooting to do so might as well start one.

Nevada down 11 to SJSU with 16:00 left. I suppose Nevada can win this game but this doesn't seem like a fluke. SJSU looks better. A Nevada loss bumps them below Pitt which would be HUGE.

We are in

 

[cabe23]

Lots of rooting to do so might as well start one.

Nevada down 11 to SJSU with 16:00 left. I suppose Nevada can win this game but this doesn't seem like a fluke. SJSU looks better. A Nevada loss bumps them below Pitt which would be HUGE.

Nevada is winning now.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Nevada now up 3 with 6 left.

PSU up 7 late in 1st Half

FAU up 11 late in 1st Half

 

[KennyHeisman8]

Nevada now up 3 with 6 left.

PSU up 7 late in 1st Half

FAU up 11 late in 1st Half

Cool. Pitt is in as a 10

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Cool. Pitt is in as a 10

No First Four?

 

[KennyHeisman8]

No First Four?

Possibly. But they are not “out” as you are claiming

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Possibly. But they are not “out” as you are claiming

For now. Utah State can play their way out in this last minute

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I thought one of the 8 guarantees already happened (us beating GT). Or is this 1,987,459th scenario THE scenario?

 

[KennyHeisman8]

For now. Utah State can play their way out in this last minute

1000 dollars. Like I said do it or shut up

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

SJSU up 2. USU ball 30 seconds. Never rooted so hard for SJSU.

 

[KennyHeisman8]

I thought one of the 8 guarantees already happened (us beating GT). Or is this 1,987,459th scenario THE scenario?

It’s moving the goalposts, again

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I thought one of the 8 guarantees already happened (us beating GT). Or is this 1,987,459th scenario THE scenario?

My bad on that, I didnt plan on a 30 point loss in the next round. Had we lost by 15 or less, I would say lock

 

[KennyHeisman8]

SJSU up 2. USU ball 30 seconds. Never rooted so hard for SJSU.

It’s interesting you’re rooting for San Jose to bear Utah state

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

OT.

Terrible last possession by SJSU. Took a step back 30 footer when you had 30 seconds to get a shot

 

[KennyHeisman8]

OT.

Terrible last possession by SJSU. Took a step back 30 footer when you had 30 seconds to get a shot

So Utah state is going to OT??

 

[KennyHeisman8]

OT.

Terrible last possession by SJSU. Took a step back 30 footer when you had 30 seconds to get a shot

Looks like Utah state is going to lose!!!

Too bad it was Nevada playing you dolt

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

They’re not out. They’re also not a 10 seed. They’re either last 4 in or last 4 byes.

 

[Blair_45]

Nevada loses to San Jose another team that won’t jump Pitt that’s on the bubble. Illinois is up 2 right now on Penn State, OK St is down 9 to Texas at the half and North Carolina is down 1 to Virginia.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Nevada loses to San Jose another team that won’t jump Pitt that’s on the bubble. Illinois is up 2 right now on Penn State, OK St is down 9 to Texas at the half and North Carolina is down 1 to Virginia.

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

I think Rutgers moves below us with a loss tomorrow. I don’t think Utah St is ahead of us right now either.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

You should also add Providence. They are showing up in Dayton in a lot of projections. Iffy profile.

 

[KennyHeisman8]

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

Shut up

 

[whirlybird optio]

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

Also, not that he’s necessarily right, as of 15 min ago, following UNC loss, and PSU win, Lunardi still has us #1 of all of the teams on your list, ahead of PSU and Miss St and Rutgers.

He moved UNC down a couple spots. Nevada down. Wisconsin somehow went up 2 spots in last 4 out.

Providence dropped to last 4 byes

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Also, not that he’s necessarily right, as of 15 min ago, following UNC loss, and PSU win, Lunardi still has us #1 of all of the teams on your list, ahead of PSU and Miss St and Rutgers.

He moved UNC down a couple spots. Nevada down. Wisconsin somehow went up 2 spots in last 4 out.

Providence dropped to last 4 byes

Yea but I am planning on a 12-15 spot NET drop in a few hours. That is absolute killer.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think Rutgers moves below us with a loss tomorrow. I don’t think Utah St is ahead of us right now either.

You can certainly make the argument that we should be ahead of Rutgers if they lose tomorrow and maybe Utah State even if they win tonight. I think PSU, for sure, is ahead of us and they are basically clinched. I have Miss St ahead of us but that's another team that we could get ranked ahead of if they lose tomorrow.

Assuming 1 bid stealer (CUSA, Nova, or SJSU/UNM), we are basically in if ASU and Clemson lose tonight. No worse than Dayton.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Yea but I am planning on a 12-15 spot NET drop in a few hours. That is absolute killer.

I think they projected our NET to drop 4 spots. 59? I saw that

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You should also add Providence. They are showing up in Dayton in a lot of projections. Iffy profile.

Dang, I haven't even considered them because they were so solidly in on all these projections all season but their resume is no better than ours.

4-7
3-1
3-2
11-0
Road 6-6
SOS 87
Non-con SOS 269

Here's ours
4-4
3-5
5-1
10-1
7-5
84
127

Gotta give them the nod but yea, they could get Dayton with that.

Another team that people have seeded way higher than they should be is Illinois. I could see them possibly in Dayton and people being shocked. Here's theirs:

2-10
7-2
4-0
7-0
3-7 road is just brutal
53
158

What saves them is they beat UCLA and Texas on neutral courts in November. You could make an argument though that Illinois shouldn't even get a bid.

 

[UPitt '89]

Nevada cant jump Pitt, I dont think. I mean their NET and SOS is incredible since they play in such a tough league and our NET will tank tomorrow but I dont have them jumping us.

Penn State locked up a bid. Pitt vs PSU in Dayton very possible.

UNC done.

OK St done

Updated SMF Bubble rankings

5 get in (assuming FAU doesnt win CUSA)

1. PSU
2. Miss St
3. Utah St.
4. Rutgers
5. Pitt
6. Arizona State (plays later)
7. Clemson

Very very bad afternoon with Rut, Miss St wins and our loss but very good night so far. It sucks like heck to see PSU lock up a bid but oh well.

So right now we are in. Need to root for USC to beat ASU tonight. Clemson to lose and Rutgers to lose tomorrow. Losing to Purdue wont hurt and in reality, we could be ahead of them right now anyway.

The Rutgers win was good for Pitt. Ended Michigan's season. Whoever lost that game was going to be behind Pitt.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We clinch a bid if:

- Clemson and ASU lose tonight
- Vandy doesn't make SEC final
- Nova doesnt win BET
- SJSU or UNM dont win MWC
- VCU or FAU win their leagues. VCU probably wouldn't make it but they'd be 26-8 with a win over us. Wouldn't want to test it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The Rutgers win was good for Pitt. Ended Michigan's season. Whoever lost that game was going to be behind Pitt.

I dont think because if Rutgers lost, they couldn't pass us. Now, you could argue they'll be ahead of us. Michigan needed to beat Purdue and they probably wouldn't have. Michigan could have eliminated Rutgers and then Purdue could have eliminated Michigan.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Really need Clemson to lose this. They have 4 Q3/4 losses to our 2. But they beat us at our place and they'd be 7-5 in Q1-2 compared to our 7-9.

NC State shouldn't feel comfortable with a loss either. They'd have 3 losses to Clemson and only 1 Q1 win. They have no Q3/4 losses but their resume is suspect. Shoot, I assumed they were in. I might move them below us if they lose tonight.

 

[UPitt '89]

I dont think because if Rutgers lost, they couldn't pass us. Now, you could argue they'll be ahead of us. Michigan needed to beat Purdue and they probably wouldn't have. Michigan could have eliminated Rutgers and then Purdue could have eliminated Michigan.

The other way around. Michigan had a better resume than Rutgers prior to the game.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Really need Clemson to lose this. They have 4 Q3/4 losses to our 2. But they beat us at our place and they'd be 7-5 in Q1-2 compared to our 7-9.

NC State shouldn't feel comfortable with a loss either. They'd have 3 losses to Clemson and only 1 Q1 win. They have no Q3/4 losses but their resume is suspect. Shoot, I assumed they were in. I might move them below us if they lose tonight.

Clemson’s SOS is in the 300s. They need to make the finals to have a shot. They are the classic team the committee penalizes.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The other way around. Michigan had a better resume than Rutgers prior to the game.

No way. They would have been 18-16 with a Purdue loss tomorrow. 3-12 in Q1. 1 Q4 loss. No way. They would have needed to beat Purdue and probably win the semifinal. Maybe needed to win the whole thing. Just too many losses. I dont think a 16 loss team ever got an at-large bid

 

[whirlybird optio]

The other way around. Michigan had a better resume than Rutgers prior to the game.

??? Rutgers was 6 spots ahead on the S curve on Bracket Matrix. How was Michigan ahead on resume. Every compute metric favors Rutgers, they are in more brackets.

Now - I don’t disagree, because Michigan is the more dangerous team, but Rutgers was clearly ahead of them going into today

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Clemson’s SOS is in the 300s. They need to make the finals to have a shot. They are the classic team the committee penalizes.

Their non-con SOS is but you are right that they are the classic team they penalize. That said. How do you justify putting NC State in over them if they beat them tonight?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Their non-con SOS is but you are right that they are the classic team they penalize. That said. How do you justify putting NC State in over them if they beat them tonight?

In a weird way it might help Pitt. They might slide NC St behind Pitt (we beat them in their place), and then NC St falls to Dayton.

Clemson hops ok st today, Wisconsin. Maybe if Rutgers and miss St tomorrow, and Clemson wins, you get Clemson AND Nc St in Dayton.

I could see a weird Dayton foursome of Clemson, NC St, Providence, and like Miss St? esp if Az St loses and Moutain West goes chalk. No west coast team to put there.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

In a weird way it might help Pitt. They might slide NC St behind Pitt (we beat them in their place), and then NC St falls to Dayton.

Clemson hops ok st today, Wisconsin. Maybe if Rutgers and miss St tomorrow, and Clemson wins, you get Clemson AND Nc St in Dayton.

I could see a weird Dayton foursome of Clemson, NC St, Providence, and like Miss St? esp if Az St loses and Moutain West goes chalk. No west coast team to put there.

All these bubble teams are really close. I do think Clemson winning COULD potentially help Pitt because the 3 resumes are somewhat similar and NC St is 0-4 in those games so you'd maybe have to go Pitt, Clemson, NC St.

And I dont know how you seed Illinois over PSU. They are both 20-12. PSU beat them 3 times. Illinois did beat UCLA and Texas in November but that's like their whole resume. All their Q2 wins were against non-NCAAT teams for the most part. They beat MSU, Rut, and NW at home. That's their resume. I think you could see them in Dayton.

 

[whirlybird optio]

All these bubble teams are really close. I do think Clemson winning COULD potentially help Pitt because the 3 resumes are somewhat similar and NC St is 0-4 in those games so you'd maybe have to go Pitt, Clemson, NC St.

And I dont know how you seed Illinois over PSU. They are both 20-12. PSU beat them 3 times. Illinois did beat UCLA and Texas in November but that's like their whole resume. All their Q2 wins were against non-NCAAT teams for the most part. They beat MSU, Rut, and NW at home. That's their resume. I think you could see them in Dayton.

UNLV about to make this Mountain West tournament very interesting. If they win today, and New Mexico wins, you will have 3 bid stealers and SDSU.

Boise only has 3Q1 wins, 2 Q3 losses. Maybe they fall behind us.

There’s a world where everyone in the Mountain West loses and SDSU wins the tournament and it’s the absolute best result for Pitt and the other bubble teams