Where Pitt fits into conference realignment, an analysis

[HailToPitt725]

(Long post) With all of conference realignment posts on here lately, I tried experimenting to see if any of the speculation/rumors could be quantified in an objective way. It'd also give us a better idea of how Pitt would fit into all of it moving forward.

Most fans agree that any future conference realignment will come down to two things: money, specifically revenue generated from football, and television viewers. Both of these help make up a school's overall perceived value. I was able to find all 69 (as of July 1) Power 5 school's football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021-22 school year using the following resources:

- U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data Analysis (link)
- Zach Miller's Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021? (link)

However, those data points alone don't make up the entire story. For instance, UCLA and USC seem like very sub-par candidates for Big Ten expansion using just football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021 season. There's also a few revenue figures that are a little wonky due to lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic on universities. To give a more accurate depiction of a school's value, I added two "weights": a program's all-time ranking based off the AP Poll and U.S. media market rankings. This would give programs like USC a bump based off their blueblood status while increasing the value of programs like Georgia Tech due to the Atlanta market. For this, I used the following resources:

- Yahoo! Sports' AP College Football Poll, Rankings: Greatest Programs Of All-Time (link)
- Wikipedia's List of television station in North America by media market (link)

Two things to note on these so-called weights: I filtered out non-P5 programs for the AP all-time rankings. This means that a program like Virginia was ranked 64th instead of 76th because it excluded schools such as Navy and Tulane. I also didn't include a program's media market if it decreased their total value (e.g., Ohio State and the Columbus market) and also added media markets to a few programs that, although they don't reside in those markets, they carry them for their conference (e.g., Georgia provides the Atlanta market for the SEC). This was the most subjective part of the formula, as I used this category to factor in the Big Ten or SEC expanding into untapped markets; this is why I gave Virginia the DMV media market, for instance.

Once I had the above data, each school received a 1-69 ranking based off where they finished for a particular category. I then took the average of these to create a cumulative 'total value' rating, with 1 being the highest. The result is the following spreadsheet that can be viewed by clicking on the attached link here.

The Big Ten, including UCLA and USC, has a total value rating of 22.0. Meanwhile, the SEC + Oklahoma and Texas has a total value rating of 23.0. The idea behind this spreadsheet is to see whether an individual football program would match or increase the total value of the Big Ten or SEC in the hopes of receiving an invite. Using the compiled ratings, there are six programs that match the criteria: Notre Dame (5.7); Florida State (18.0); Oregon (19.7); Clemson (21.3); Washington (21.5); and Miami (22.5). There are also four programs that wouldn't match/exceed the conferences' total value but still exceeds the median total value rating: Oklahoma State (32.0); Arizona State (32.3); North Carolina (33.5); and Stanford (33.5). These programs could be potential "package deals" with prime expansion candidates if conferences were looking to expand to or past 20, similar to how UCLA was a package deal with USC despite having a lower total value rating than the Big Ten's cumulative value. This more-or-less adds up with the most talked-about expansion rumors, with Arizona State being a notable surprise.

-

So, where does Pitt fit into this? According to these ratings, Pitt has a total value rating of 38.8, or 40th overall. The three schools immediately ahead of us are Illinois, Baylor, and Colorado, and the three schools immediately behind us are Georgia Tech, Duke, and Indiana. I think most here agree that we shouldn't expect to get invited to the Big Ten and SEC, and these rankings appear to justify that. However, it shows that we're in a good place for a few reasons:

- Pitt is 14th among all non-Big Ten and SEC schools. So, in the event that they decide to expand to 24 schools each, we'd have a decent shot at receiving an invite.
- These ratings also show that we would have a strong chance at receiving a Big 12 invite should the ACC break apart leading up to the Grant of Rights expiring in 2036.

I understand that the formulas and ratings are not perfect. Schools such as NC State and Virginia Tech are likely too low in comparison to how they're actually valued, and it doesn't include other considerations such as academics or men's basketball programs. But, the point wasn't to create an exact science, but rather provide a fun thought experiment and show that, although we aren't the most valuable program available, we're in a good position moving forward regardless of what happens in the world of college football.

 

[CrazyPaco]

Pitt has a perception problem. It needs to win and win consistently, and build back its both local and Pittsburgh diaspora fan base by not shitting the bed every time it gets any buzz. That's all it can do, and while it sounds easy, it isn't because that's what every school is trying to do. It needs to string together winning seasons where it stays inside the rankings most of the year and win its bowl games. That will lead to increases in attendance and TV interest. It's as simple as that. TV interest mostly follows those little numbers next to the school name.

Boosters have to be prepared to give a little more, fans have to be prepared to become boosters. No school is going to consistently win in the environment of today's college athletics without people willing to supplement what any university is able to put into the programs itself and it has to happen now.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Pitt has a perception problem. It needs to win and win consistently, and build back its both local and Pittsburgh diaspora fan base by not shitting the bed every time it gets any buzz. That's all it can do, and while it sounds easy, it isn't because that's what every school is trying to do. It needs to string together winning seasons where it stays inside the rankings most of the year and win its bowl games. That will lead to increases in attendance and TV interest. It's as simple as that. TV interest mostly follows those little numbers next to the school name.

Boosters have to be prepared to give a little more, fans have to be prepared to become boosters. No school is going to consistently win in the environment of today's college athletics without people willing to supplement what any university is able to put into the programs itself and it has to happen now.

I tried looking for ways to quantify booster/alumni donations, and there were a couple metrics that might’ve been acceptable on the DOE site, but I ended up not using them. If I find anything I like moving forward, I might update the ratings.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I'll make it easier. Hope the B10 and SEC expand to 20, 22, 24 and that the SEC invites us

 

[PSUinSTL]

Going forward markets matter less. Ratings (nationally) and following play a role. I will also state that you can’t look at a school in a silo but also how they impact other schools (ratings). I don’t see only top programs (Clemson/FSU). You need additional tiers or you weaken a new team or existing team. Look at the BIG now. OSU has been king until 2021. Clemson was their equal. If both were in same conference - both wouldn’t have dominated thus lowering one. Compound that with multiple teams and you can get why different tiers need added (UCLA being an example).

That said. I feel Pitt had a decent chance at BIG as they may add as much value there as they do the SEC. Yes the SEC would get a new market but if direct to consumer ramps up it is less important.

Pitt vs the following would be good ratings PSU/OSU/MD/RU as they can develop (or are) into a rivalry due to proximity.

Pitt vs the Mich schools could do the same.

The rest would rate well vs P5 but not necessarily add value (distance).

5 yrs ago when markets mattered more id have said little chance. But matchups and brands matter more now and Pitt Brand holds weight. Especially with casual fans who might live near Pitt fans due to proximity.

 

[topdecktiger]

These ratings also show that we would have a strong chance at receiving a Big 12 invite should the ACC break apart leading up to the Grant of Rights expiring in 2036.

That was already a given.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Going forward markets matter less. Ratings (nationally) and following play a role. I will also state that you can’t look at a school in a silo but also how they impact other schools (ratings). I don’t see only top programs (Clemson/FSU). You need additional tiers or you weaken a new team or existing team. Look at the BIG now. OSU has been king until 2021. Clemson was their equal. If both were in same conference - both wouldn’t have dominated thus lowering one. Compound that with multiple teams and you can get why different tiers need added (UCLA being an example).

That said. I feel Pitt had a decent chance at BIG as they may add as much value there as they do the SEC. Yes the SEC would get a new market but if direct to consumer ramps up it is less important.

Pitt vs the following would be good ratings PSU/OSU/MD/RU as they can develop (or are) into a rivalry due to proximity.

Pitt vs the Mich schools could do the same.

The rest would rate well vs P5 but not necessarily add value (distance).

5 yrs ago when markets mattered more id have said little chance. But matchups and brands matter more now and Pitt Brand holds weight. Especially with casual fans who might live near Pitt fans due to proximity.

I agree with this, which is why I tried to incorporate different characteristics that make up a brand (e.g., revenue generated, tv ratings, historical relevancy). I wouldn’t expect a Big Ten invite, but I’d certainly love to get one!

 

[HailToPitt725]

That was already a given.

Correct; was just saying that the data backs it up and it’s not just Pitt fans who believe this.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

(Long post) With all of conference realignment posts on here lately, I tried experimenting to see if any of the speculation/rumors could be quantified in an objective way. It'd also give us a better idea of how Pitt would fit into all of it moving forward.

Most fans agree that any future conference realignment will come down to two things: money, specifically revenue generated from football, and television viewers. Both of these help make up a school's overall perceived value. I was able to find all 69 (as of July 1) Power 5 school's football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021-22 school year using the following resources:

- U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data Analysis (link)
- Zach Miller's Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021? (link)

However, those data points alone don't make up the entire story. For instance, UCLA and USC seem like very sub-par candidates for Big Ten expansion using just football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021 season. There's also a few revenue figures that are a little wonky due to lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic on universities. To give a more accurate depiction of a school's value, I added two "weights": a program's all-time ranking based off the AP Poll and U.S. media market rankings. This would give programs like USC a bump based off their blueblood status while increasing the value of programs like Georgia Tech due to the Atlanta market. For this, I used the following resources:

- Yahoo! Sports' AP College Football Poll, Rankings: Greatest Programs Of All-Time (link)
- Wikipedia's List of television station in North America by media market (link)

Two things to note on these so-called weights: I filtered out non-P5 programs for the AP all-time rankings. This means that a program like Virginia was ranked 64th instead of 76th because it excluded schools such as Navy and Tulane. I also didn't include a program's media market if it decreased their total value (e.g., Ohio State and the Columbus market) and also added media markets to a few programs that, although they don't reside in those markets, they carry them for their conference (e.g., Georgia provides the Atlanta market for the SEC). This was the most subjective part of the formula, as I used this category to factor in the Big Ten or SEC expanding into untapped markets; this is why I gave Virginia the DMV media market, for instance.

Once I had the above data, each school received a 1-69 ranking based off where they finished for a particular category. I then took the average of these to create a cumulative 'total value' rating, with 1 being the highest. The result is the following spreadsheet that can be viewed by clicking on the attached link here.

The Big Ten, including UCLA and USC, has a total value rating of 22.0. Meanwhile, the SEC + Oklahoma and Texas has a total value rating of 23.0. The idea behind this spreadsheet is to see whether an individual football program would match or increase the total value of the Big Ten or SEC in the hopes of receiving an invite. Using the compiled ratings, there are six programs that match the criteria: Notre Dame (5.7); Florida State (18.0); Oregon (19.7); Clemson (21.3); Washington (21.5); and Miami (22.5). There are also four programs that wouldn't match/exceed the conferences' total value but still exceeds the median total value rating: Oklahoma State (32.0); Arizona State (32.3); North Carolina (33.5); and Stanford (33.5). These programs could be potential "package deals" with prime expansion candidates if conferences were looking to expand to or past 20, similar to how UCLA was a package deal with USC despite having a lower total value rating than the Big Ten's cumulative value. This more-or-less adds up with the most talked-about expansion rumors, with Arizona State being a notable surprise.

-

So, where does Pitt fit into this? According to these ratings, Pitt has a total value rating of 38.8, or 40th overall. The three schools immediately ahead of us are Illinois, Baylor, and Colorado, and the three schools immediately behind us are Georgia Tech, Duke, and Indiana. I think most here agree that we shouldn't expect to get invited to the Big Ten and SEC, and these rankings appear to justify that. However, it shows that we're in a good place for a few reasons:

- Pitt is 14th among all non-Big Ten and SEC schools. So, in the event that they decide to expand to 24 schools each, we'd have a decent shot at receiving an invite.
- These ratings also show that we would have a strong chance at receiving a Big 12 invite should the ACC break apart leading up to the Grant of Rights expiring in 2036.

I understand that the formulas and ratings are not perfect. Schools such as NC State and Virginia Tech are likely too low in comparison to how they're actually valued, and it doesn't include other considerations such as academics or men's basketball programs. But, the point wasn't to create an exact science, but rather provide a fun thought experiment and show that, although we aren't the most valuable program available, we're in a good position moving forward regardless of what happens in the world of college football.

Interesting read and some great data points collected in one convenient place. The conclusions you made are heartening, as long as the key players involved do some degree of similar analysis as you have, rather than rely on perception and local hearsay (alluding to what Paco replied). Imagine if some SEC or B1G committees came to town and relied on what they heard from there likes of Ron Cook or Colon Dunlop…

 

[Pfh29]

Born and raised for 30 years in Pittsburgh. I’ve lived outside of Pittsburgh (St. Louis, Vegas, DC, Alabama, Texas) for the past 13. The Pitt brand is perceived better outside of Pittsburgh than it is in Pittsburgh.

To borrow a phrase, “Pitt will be fine without the ACC.”

 

[HailToPitt725]

Interesting read and some great data points collected in one convenient place. The conclusions you made are heartening, as long as the key players involved do some degree of similar analysis as you have, rather than rely on perception and local hearsay (alluding to what Paco replied). Imagine if some SEC or B1G committees came to town and relied on what they heard from there likes of Ron Cook or Colon Dunlop…

I recall reading an article on NFL.com and it had the Pitt script as one of the ten most 15 most iconic looks in college football. Outside of the Penn State, WVU and anti-Pitt echo chambers, we have a well respected reputation and identity. In an era that is becoming less about television markets and more about the brands themselves, as @PSUinSTL put it, hopefully that means something for our sake.

 

[NBPanther]

HailtoPitt725, Great read thanks for posting...good stuff. As someone else said, if expansion goes beyond 20 per conference we have a legit shot of getting in the BIG or the SEC (personally prefer SEC). we are still in a pretty good place to be in the #3 conference in the land, whether that's the Big 12 or a revamped ACC or some combination when changes come.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

(Long post) With all of conference realignment posts on here lately, I tried experimenting to see if any of the speculation/rumors could be quantified in an objective way. It'd also give us a better idea of how Pitt would fit into all of it moving forward.

Most fans agree that any future conference realignment will come down to two things: money, specifically revenue generated from football, and television viewers. Both of these help make up a school's overall perceived value. I was able to find all 69 (as of July 1) Power 5 school's football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021-22 school year using the following resources:

- U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data Analysis (link)
- Zach Miller's Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021? (link)

However, those data points alone don't make up the entire story. For instance, UCLA and USC seem like very sub-par candidates for Big Ten expansion using just football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021 season. There's also a few revenue figures that are a little wonky due to lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic on universities. To give a more accurate depiction of a school's value, I added two "weights": a program's all-time ranking based off the AP Poll and U.S. media market rankings. This would give programs like USC a bump based off their blueblood status while increasing the value of programs like Georgia Tech due to the Atlanta market. For this, I used the following resources:

- Yahoo! Sports' AP College Football Poll, Rankings: Greatest Programs Of All-Time (link)
- Wikipedia's List of television station in North America by media market (link)

Two things to note on these so-called weights: I filtered out non-P5 programs for the AP all-time rankings. This means that a program like Virginia was ranked 64th instead of 76th because it excluded schools such as Navy and Tulane. I also didn't include a program's media market if it decreased their total value (e.g., Ohio State and the Columbus market) and also added media markets to a few programs that, although they don't reside in those markets, they carry them for their conference (e.g., Georgia provides the Atlanta market for the SEC). This was the most subjective part of the formula, as I used this category to factor in the Big Ten or SEC expanding into untapped markets; this is why I gave Virginia the DMV media market, for instance.

Once I had the above data, each school received a 1-69 ranking based off where they finished for a particular category. I then took the average of these to create a cumulative 'total value' rating, with 1 being the highest. The result is the following spreadsheet that can be viewed by clicking on the attached link here.

The Big Ten, including UCLA and USC, has a total value rating of 22.0. Meanwhile, the SEC + Oklahoma and Texas has a total value rating of 23.0. The idea behind this spreadsheet is to see whether an individual football program would match or increase the total value of the Big Ten or SEC in the hopes of receiving an invite. Using the compiled ratings, there are six programs that match the criteria: Notre Dame (5.7); Florida State (18.0); Oregon (19.7); Clemson (21.3); Washington (21.5); and Miami (22.5). There are also four programs that wouldn't match/exceed the conferences' total value but still exceeds the median total value rating: Oklahoma State (32.0); Arizona State (32.3); North Carolina (33.5); and Stanford (33.5). These programs could be potential "package deals" with prime expansion candidates if conferences were looking to expand to or past 20, similar to how UCLA was a package deal with USC despite having a lower total value rating than the Big Ten's cumulative value. This more-or-less adds up with the most talked-about expansion rumors, with Arizona State being a notable surprise.

-

So, where does Pitt fit into this? According to these ratings, Pitt has a total value rating of 38.8, or 40th overall. The three schools immediately ahead of us are Illinois, Baylor, and Colorado, and the three schools immediately behind us are Georgia Tech, Duke, and Indiana. I think most here agree that we shouldn't expect to get invited to the Big Ten and SEC, and these rankings appear to justify that. However, it shows that we're in a good place for a few reasons:

- Pitt is 14th among all non-Big Ten and SEC schools. So, in the event that they decide to expand to 24 schools each, we'd have a decent shot at receiving an invite.
- These ratings also show that we would have a strong chance at receiving a Big 12 invite should the ACC break apart leading up to the Grant of Rights expiring in 2036.

I understand that the formulas and ratings are not perfect. Schools such as NC State and Virginia Tech are likely too low in comparison to how they're actually valued, and it doesn't include other considerations such as academics or men's basketball programs. But, the point wasn't to create an exact science, but rather provide a fun thought experiment and show that, although we aren't the most valuable program available, we're in a good position moving forward regardless of what happens in the world of college football.

I love this. Good stuff and thank you. As someone who has done alot of research and analysis and posted on these forums to crickets, I appreciate the effort.

 

[HailToPitt725]

I love this. Good stuff and thank you. As someone who has done alot of research and analysis and posted on these forums to crickets, I appreciate the effort.

Thank you sir. I’m a stats nerd by trade, and I’m glad whenever I can put it to use on here!

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Going forward markets matter less. Ratings (nationally) and following play a role. I will also state that you can’t look at a school in a silo but also how they impact other schools (ratings). I don’t see only top programs (Clemson/FSU). You need additional tiers or you weaken a new team or existing team. Look at the BIG now. OSU has been king until 2021. Clemson was their equal. If both were in same conference - both wouldn’t have dominated thus lowering one. Compound that with multiple teams and you can get why different tiers need added (UCLA being an example).

That said. I feel Pitt had a decent chance at BIG as they may add as much value there as they do the SEC. Yes the SEC would get a new market but if direct to consumer ramps up it is less important.

Pitt vs the following would be good ratings PSU/OSU/MD/RU as they can develop (or are) into a rivalry due to proximity.

Pitt vs the Mich schools could do the same.

The rest would rate well vs P5 but not necessarily add value (distance).

5 yrs ago when markets mattered more id have said little chance. But matchups and brands matter more now and Pitt Brand holds weight. Especially with casual fans who might live near Pitt fans due to proximity.

I have been saying this.....or something like this over the past few years. The old "eyeballs" market stuff is outdated and overall. Rutgers is in the NY market, Maryland in the DC. But let's be honest, Pitt/PSU draws eyeballs. Pitt/Michigan would draw more eyeballs than those two. It is why I advocated WVU for the ACC. While yeah, WVU has its drawbacks, WVU's probably two most natural rivals are Pitt and VT. They draw eyeballs and interest.

College football for 100 years sold itself on tradition. It is still there, despite all of these conference shuffling money grabs. People would still rather see OU/Nebraska or Pitt/Penn State than these conference games.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Pitt has a perception problem. It needs to win and win consistently, and build back its both local and Pittsburgh diaspora fan base by not shitting the bed every time it gets any buzz. That's all it can do, and while it sounds easy, it isn't because that's what every school is trying to do. It needs to string together winning seasons where it stays inside the rankings most of the year and win its bowl games. That will lead to increases in attendance and TV interest. It's as simple as that. TV interest mostly follows those little numbers next to the school name.

Boosters have to be prepared to give a little more, fans have to be prepared to become boosters. No school is going to consistently win in the environment of today's college athletics without people willing to supplement what any university is able to put into the programs itself and it has to happen now.

If that was the solution then Oregon would have a Big Ten invite.

Pitt needs to hope that the SEC, for some reason, wants a footprint further north. Perhaps if the Big Ten grabs Miami and FSU, then the SEC will move into PA.

Otherwise, why would either of those two conferences want Pitt? We aren't in a huge market and are not considered a blue blood caliber program.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

The fear is that these supposed academic facilities (colleges and college conferences) expressly will NOT conduct data driven analysis, but instead rely on drunken hacks like the Pgh media that belch out the tired old myths like “PSU delivers the entirety of Western PA”.

 

[HailtoPitt]

(Long post) With all of conference realignment posts on here lately, I tried experimenting to see if any of the speculation/rumors could be quantified in an objective way. It'd also give us a better idea of how Pitt would fit into all of it moving forward.

Most fans agree that any future conference realignment will come down to two things: money, specifically revenue generated from football, and television viewers. Both of these help make up a school's overall perceived value. I was able to find all 69 (as of July 1) Power 5 school's football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021-22 school year using the following resources:

- U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data Analysis (link)
- Zach Miller's Which college football programs were the most-watched in 2021? (link)

However, those data points alone don't make up the entire story. For instance, UCLA and USC seem like very sub-par candidates for Big Ten expansion using just football revenues and tv viewers from the 2021 season. There's also a few revenue figures that are a little wonky due to lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic on universities. To give a more accurate depiction of a school's value, I added two "weights": a program's all-time ranking based off the AP Poll and U.S. media market rankings. This would give programs like USC a bump based off their blueblood status while increasing the value of programs like Georgia Tech due to the Atlanta market. For this, I used the following resources:

- Yahoo! Sports' AP College Football Poll, Rankings: Greatest Programs Of All-Time (link)
- Wikipedia's List of television station in North America by media market (link)

Two things to note on these so-called weights: I filtered out non-P5 programs for the AP all-time rankings. This means that a program like Virginia was ranked 64th instead of 76th because it excluded schools such as Navy and Tulane. I also didn't include a program's media market if it decreased their total value (e.g., Ohio State and the Columbus market) and also added media markets to a few programs that, although they don't reside in those markets, they carry them for their conference (e.g., Georgia provides the Atlanta market for the SEC). This was the most subjective part of the formula, as I used this category to factor in the Big Ten or SEC expanding into untapped markets; this is why I gave Virginia the DMV media market, for instance.

Once I had the above data, each school received a 1-69 ranking based off where they finished for a particular category. I then took the average of these to create a cumulative 'total value' rating, with 1 being the highest. The result is the following spreadsheet that can be viewed by clicking on the attached link here.

The Big Ten, including UCLA and USC, has a total value rating of 22.0. Meanwhile, the SEC + Oklahoma and Texas has a total value rating of 23.0. The idea behind this spreadsheet is to see whether an individual football program would match or increase the total value of the Big Ten or SEC in the hopes of receiving an invite. Using the compiled ratings, there are six programs that match the criteria: Notre Dame (5.7); Florida State (18.0); Oregon (19.7); Clemson (21.3); Washington (21.5); and Miami (22.5). There are also four programs that wouldn't match/exceed the conferences' total value but still exceeds the median total value rating: Oklahoma State (32.0); Arizona State (32.3); North Carolina (33.5); and Stanford (33.5). These programs could be potential "package deals" with prime expansion candidates if conferences were looking to expand to or past 20, similar to how UCLA was a package deal with USC despite having a lower total value rating than the Big Ten's cumulative value. This more-or-less adds up with the most talked-about expansion rumors, with Arizona State being a notable surprise.

-

So, where does Pitt fit into this? According to these ratings, Pitt has a total value rating of 38.8, or 40th overall. The three schools immediately ahead of us are Illinois, Baylor, and Colorado, and the three schools immediately behind us are Georgia Tech, Duke, and Indiana. I think most here agree that we shouldn't expect to get invited to the Big Ten and SEC, and these rankings appear to justify that. However, it shows that we're in a good place for a few reasons:

- Pitt is 14th among all non-Big Ten and SEC schools. So, in the event that they decide to expand to 24 schools each, we'd have a decent shot at receiving an invite.
- These ratings also show that we would have a strong chance at receiving a Big 12 invite should the ACC break apart leading up to the Grant of Rights expiring in 2036.

I understand that the formulas and ratings are not perfect. Schools such as NC State and Virginia Tech are likely too low in comparison to how they're actually valued, and it doesn't include other considerations such as academics or men's basketball programs. But, the point wasn't to create an exact science, but rather provide a fun thought experiment and show that, although we aren't the most valuable program available, we're in a good position moving forward regardless of what happens in the world of college football.

I think the biggest factor is adding new markets to lock in that market and millions of subscribers to a cable package for the conference network. I'm not sure what markets the SEC and Big Ten still need to capture.

 

[HailtoPitt]

The fear is that these supposed academic facilities (colleges and college conferences) expressly will NOT conduct data driven analysis, but instead rely on drunken hacks like the Pgh media that belch out the tired old myths like “PSU delivers the entirety of Western PA”.

PSU delivers the entirety of the state of PA. That's one large and one medium-ish markets where the Big Ten can demand inclusion in the cable package.

 

[cashisking884]

Winning isn’t going to change anybody’s realignment stars.

Most fans can’t tell you how many games Pitt won, if they finished in the Top 25, whom they played in a bowl game and what happened in that bowl game.

“Keep winning 8 or 9 games a year and win the bowl game” isn’t going to result in some “come on in” moment when it comes to realignment.

Fans follow their teams and then games that have playoff implications. That’s the entire reason why we expanded the playoffs. Because winning 8 games and going to a bowl game became so meaningless to so many people.
Hell, winning your conference and going to the Rose Bowl became meaningless to the rest of the country.

To the extent it does mean something, the ACC needs to get really good. This is the problem the PAC 12 had, when they had that playoff drought. The national fan doesn’t perceive you as a real conference if you don’t have actual legit national title contenders. So your nice seasons go unnoticed, because it’s like you were playing Division II. There’s a few years there where most people on this board probably couldn’t tell you if a single PAC 12 team finished in the Top 25 and who even won the conference.

 

[cashisking884]

I think the biggest factor is adding new markets to lock in that market and millions of subscribers to a cable package for the conference network. I'm not sure what markets the SEC and Big Ten still need to capture.

The south for the BIG 10.

Nothing for the SEC. For them it would just be adding teams that create must watch games for the rest of the nation.

 

[HOF Coach]

Going forward markets matter less. Ratings (nationally) and following play a role. I will also state that you can’t look at a school in a silo but also how they impact other schools (ratings). I don’t see only top programs (Clemson/FSU). You need additional tiers or you weaken a new team or existing team. Look at the BIG now. OSU has been king until 2021. Clemson was their equal. If both were in same conference - both wouldn’t have dominated thus lowering one. Compound that with multiple teams and you can get why different tiers need added (UCLA being an example).

That said. I feel Pitt had a decent chance at BIG as they may add as much value there as they do the SEC. Yes the SEC would get a new market but if direct to consumer ramps up it is less important.

Pitt vs the following would be good ratings PSU/OSU/MD/RU as they can develop (or are) into a rivalry due to proximity.

Pitt vs the Mich schools could do the same.

The rest would rate well vs P5 but not necessarily add value (distance).

5 yrs ago when markets mattered more id have said little chance. But matchups and brands matter more now and Pitt Brand holds weight. Especially with casual fans who might live near Pitt fans due to proximity.

I agree. Well said.

 

[Burgh15]

What's the end game of getting into either the SEC or Big 10 outside of a bigger payday, or is that all everyone is worried about? I am assuming there will be at least a third conference with legit college football teams playing.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

What's the end game of getting into either the SEC or Big 10 outside of a bigger payday, or is that all everyone is worried about? I am assuming there will be at least a third conference with legit college football teams playing.

Would you rather make a lot less money and try to be a big fish in a smaller pond or make a lot more money and be a smaller fish in a big pond? You’d have more interesting matchups in the Big10 or SEC.

 

[Burgh15]

Would you rather make a lot less money and try to be a big fish in a smaller pond or make a lot more money and be a smaller fish in a big pond? You’d have more interesting matchups in the Big10 or SEC.

The money is a non-factor to me. It's not being used to lower my ticket prices, enhance my stadium experience, and does not guarantee more wins on the field.

I want Pitt to win and compete for a playoff spot every year.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

The money is a non-factor to me. It's not being used to lower my ticket prices, enhance my stadium experience, and does not guarantee more wins on the field.

I want Pitt to win and compete for a playoff spot every year.

Money is a big factor in big-time athletics. NIL $, bigger and better facilities, and all the other perks that good players want. If you want to win and make the playoff, then you have to at least be somewhat competitive against your competition.

 

[Burgh15]

Money is a big factor in big-time athletics. NIL $, bigger and better facilities, and all the other perks that good players want. If you want to win and make the playoff, then you have to at least be somewhat competitive against your competition.

How is that working out for teams not named Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame?

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Yes.

And if relegated to a B League conference, that conference will either be locked completely out of the new Super League (no entry at all for the Super NC. Or (after threats of antitrust suits) will be given 1 token slot (in a playoff of 16).

Pitt football will not survive in either scenario.

 

[Burgh15]

Yes.

And if relegated to a B League conference, that conference will either be locked completely out of the new Super League (no entry at all for the Super NC. Or (after threats of antitrust suits) will be given 1 token slot (in a playoff of 16).

Pitt football will not survive in either scenario.

Yes it will.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

How is that working out for teams not named Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame?

I’d be ecstatic making it into a 12-team playoff 1-2 times every 10 years. You could finish in the Top 3 or 4 of the Big10 or SEC for this to happen or else you’d need to win the 3rd highest ranked conference that is left.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Yes it will.

No it won’t.

This region doesn’t give two squats for minor league sports. Especially if the team has been downgraded from the major league.

Interest and coverage, which is spotty at best already in the region, will disintegrate.

We’ll be sinking back to the Big East as a hoops school before 5 years.

 

[Burgh15]

I’d be ecstatic making it into a 12-team playoff 1-2 times every 10 years. You could finish in the Top 3 or 4 of the Big10 or SEC for this to happen or else you’d need to win the 3rd highest ranked conference that is left.

With 12-team playoffs, you still have playoff spots available.

SEC: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Tennessee (probably Florida State, Clemson as well). Is Pitt finishing in the top 3-4?

Big 10: Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Penn State. This conference would be more realistic to compete in. Vastly overrated in football talent, but still a narrow margin with four teams at the top.

 

[Burgh15]

No it won’t.

This region doesn’t give two squats for minor league sports. Especially if the team has been downgraded from the major league.

Interest and coverage, which is spotty at best already in the region, will disintegrate.

We’ll be sinking back to the Big East as a hoops school before 5 years.

Pitt football is not going to disappear not matter how many times you say it's going to happen.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

No it won’t.

This region doesn’t give two squats for minor league sports. Especially if the team has been downgraded from the major league.

Interest and coverage, which is spotty at best already in the region, will disintegrate.

We’ll be sinking back to the Big East as a hoops school before 5 years.

The 3rd conference would be similar to the old BE football conference. It would still provide some decent matchups if you have WVU, Cincy, etc. and were able to schedule ND non conference every year. Pitt football will still be standing regardless of your hyperbole.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

The 3rd conference would be similar to the old BE football conference. It would still provide some decent matchups if you have WVU, Cincy, etc. and were able to schedule ND non conference every year. Pitt football will still be standing regardless of your hyperbole.

You just made my argument for me with that first sentence. Yes it WILL be similar to the Big East Football Conference! Which FAILED and disintegrated!

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

You just made my argument for me with that first sentence. Yes it WILL be similar to the Big East Football Conference! Which FAILED and disintegrated!

If there’s a 12 team playoff and the winner of this conference gets a playoff berth, then it will be fine.

Do you think there are going to be 36-40 teams playing football and then every other school is going to stop playing D1 football?

 

[Burgh15]

Do you think there are going to be 36-40 teams playing football and then every other school is going to stop playing D1 football?

No, just Pitt.

 

[pafootballguy]

What's the end game of getting into either the SEC or Big 10 outside of a bigger payday, or is that all everyone is worried about? I am assuming there will be at least a third conference with legit college football teams playing.

The writing is on the wall that college football players are going to get a piece of the revenue they generate in the not to distant future and when that happens it will be almost impossible for any team outside the Big Ten, SEC, and ND to compete.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

If there’s a 12 team playoff and the winner of this conference gets a playoff berth, then it will be fine.

Do you think there are going to be 36-40 teams playing football and then every other school is going to stop playing D1 football?

Yes. Many will indeed stop, more than you likely realize… eventually if not immediately. For most are really just playing football now to get the conference paycheck. Hello? Sound familiar? It should. It should sound a lot like the Pitt alma mater, in fact. But those of many others too.
Then there are those that have no such stadium on campus at all to worry about not utilizing; a program that will have it even easier to stop playing football. I wonder which programs fall into that category…🤔

 

[Pantherguy4]

GREAT READ!