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Pitt's Value in Realignment

NCPitt

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Mar 12, 2009
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This guy attempted to put a quantitative evaluation of every school's realignment attractiveness. Pitt ranks far higher than many here seem to think, outranking over half of the SEC and all of the Big12 schools. His methodology is summarized in the first comment.

 
Funny, I was about to post the same thing! I think Cal’s a little too high, but other than that I like where we’re at.
 
Yeah I don't know the metrics here. Pitt is at a 180, which if this formula would be used would be comfortably in any realignment/consolidation of college football. But......................we know the metrics used here are not reality. I mean christ, we are hated by our own local media in many ways. We don't have a large fanbase. So while we win in market, we win in brand items like academics and history, we in reality lose at actually having a large and engaged fanbase.
 
Auburn’s biggest issue is the SEC is filled with mega powers.

But they spend like an elite program. Have a commitment to being elite like an elite program. Have a rabid following. And are capable of elite recruiting. They finished with the 10th ranked class last year.

Pitt isn’t bringing in the 10th ranked class.
 
Pitt’s only real hope is for Penn State to feel any sense of pity for a Pennsylvania school and says why not. The only other way is the conferences have to complete numbers and a school with fairly good airport system is worth buying in to.
 
Anyone who believes Pitt is above Auburn, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Arkansas needs their head examined.
Kentucky is definitely a stretch, but we’re unfortunately below Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. Consider that these are three programs who are historically more successful than us (according to the AP All-Time Rankings), draw higher TV ratings than us, and have much larger fanbases in the college football hotbed of the south.

I love my university, but it isn’t much of an argument.
 
Pitt’s only real hope is for Penn State to feel any sense of pity for a Pennsylvania school and says why not. The only other way is the conferences have to complete numbers and a school with fairly good airport system is worth buying in to.
I think Acrisure Stadium would be an asset in that case. A 70,000 seat stadium that would be routinely filled by several B1G fan bases located nearby (Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, etc.) can’t be a bad thing. Schools such as Colorado, Kansas, or Utah wouldn’t have the same benefit.
 
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This guy attempted to put a quantitative evaluation of every school's realignment attractiveness. Pitt ranks far higher than many here seem to think, outranking over half of the SEC and all of the Big12 schools. His methodology is summarized in the first comment.

I've saying this for the longest time. Most of the models used by the people who matter are very similar to the one on the original post. Trust me. They look at the entire university when considering membership.

Pitt is looked at much more favorably outside of Pittsburgh than you'll ever know. Recruits outside of Pittsburgh see Pitt in a much different light as well.
 
Pitt’s only real hope is for Penn State to feel any sense of pity for a Pennsylvania school and says why not. The only other way is the conferences have to complete numbers and a school with fairly good airport system is worth buying in to.
I'm starting to smell a skunk.....
 
Auburn’s biggest issue is the SEC is filled with mega powers.

But they spend like an elite program. Have a commitment to being elite like an elite program. Have a rabid following. And are capable of elite recruiting. They finished with the 10th ranked class last year.

Pitt isn’t bringing in the 10th ranked class.
Why are you here? You're not a Pitt fan. You're only here to spin every positive post negatively under the guise of being "realistic"...

Beat it jack and get a life!
 
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I've saying this for the longest time. Most of the models used by the people who matter are very similar to the one on the original post. Trust me. They look at the entire university when considering membership.

Pitt is looked at much more favorably outside of Pittsburgh than you'll ever know. Recruits outside of Pittsburgh see Pitt in a much different light as well.
I think there could be two game-changers in realignment in the near-future that could benefit Pitt:

A) Conferences begin having separate contracts for men’s basketball, which is what the Big 12 is looking into

B) If, for whatever reason, there were to be a change in the revenue distribution for March Madness that benefited the Power 4/5/6 conferences

Additionally, if other Olympic sports begin to see upticks in viewership like women’s basketball has witnessed (as a result of larger shifts in television), that could only help us with the investments we’ve put into them in recent years.

Worst case scenario, we end up in the exact same situation as we are right now: the third best conference, be it the ACC or Big 12. I still think there’s a chance we end up in the P2, assuming they each up with 20-24 members.
 
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Kentucky is definitely a stretch, but we’re unfortunately below Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. Consider that these are three programs who are historically more successful than us (according to the AP All-Time Rankings), draw higher TV ratings than us, and have much larger fanbases in the college football hotbed of the south.

I love my university, but it isn’t much of an argument.
If we’re talking production, then Arkansas is not ahead of us in football. They’ve had losing records 5 of the last 7 seasons. We are pretty much equal with Kentucky. Ole Miss is ahead of us right now with Kiffin, but they aren’t a traditional power. Auburn has been average for the last 10 years, but they have shown the ability to be really good (i.e. Cam Newton).
 
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If we’re talking production, then Arkansas is not ahead of us in football. They’ve had losing records 5 of the last 7 seasons. We are pretty much equal with Kentucky. Ole Miss is ahead of us right now with Kiffin, but they aren’t a traditional power.

Potential matters more than production. Texas is arguably the best job in the country, and we probably have more wins than they do in the last 15 years.
 
Potential matters more than production. Texas is arguably the best job in the country, and we probably have more wins than they do in the last 15 years.
Arkansas has limited potential because it’s Arkansas.

Kentucky has limited potential because it’s a basketball school first and foremost. They are similar to UNC.

Ole Miss doesn’t have a massive backing. The party is more important than the game. Kiffin is rolling, but they’ve been average to bad most of the time.

Auburn has the highest upside of the schools mentioned, including Pitt.

Note - If Pitt were in the SEC and scheduled 3 nonconference cream puffs, then we’d get similar results to Kentucky.
 
Arkansas has limited potential because it’s Arkansas.

Kentucky has limited potential because it’s a basketball school first and foremost. They are similar to UNC.

Ole Miss doesn’t have a massive backing. The party is more important than the game. Kiffin is rolling, but they’ve been average to bad most of the time.

Auburn has the highest upside of the schools mentioned, including Pitt.

Note - If Pitt were in the SEC and scheduled 3 nonconference cream puffs, then we’d get similar results to Kentucky.

Ole Miss doesn't have a massive backing? They just pulled off one of the best NIL offseasons in the history of NIL.

I only put Kentucky ahead of Pitt because their football program is basically similar but their basketball program is elite.

Arkansas has it tough in the SEC, but they'd absolutely be a player in the ACC. They still get almost 75k at their games.
 
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Ole Miss doesn't have a massive backing? They just pulled off one of the best NIL offseasons in the history of NIL.

I only put Kentucky ahead of Pitt because their football program is basically similar but their basketball program is elite.

KY used to be elite but not now .... See Oakland U
 
Ole Miss doesn't have a massive backing? They just pulled off one of the best NIL offseasons in the history of NIL.

I only put Kentucky ahead of Pitt because their football program is basically similar but their basketball program is elite.
Kiffin has been the lynchpin. He’s doing a great job, but if he leaves then my money is on them going back to the middle of the pack.
 
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They had a pretty good thing going with Freeze also. They're committed to winning and have some decent resources/support.
Time will tell. If they are able to lock up Kiffin, then you will be right. If he leaves though, then the smart money says they fall back. Ed Orgeron went 10-25 there, but then went onto winning a National Championship at LSU.
 
Auburn’s biggest issue is the SEC is filled with mega powers.

But they spend like an elite program. Have a commitment to being elite like an elite program. Have a rabid following. And are capable of elite recruiting. They finished with the 10th ranked class last year.

Pitt isn’t bringing in the 10th ranked class.
Let me know when they finish in the top-10 in the actual result rankings.
 
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Arkansas has it tough in the SEC, but they'd absolutely be a player in the ACC. They still get almost 75k at their games.

Arkansas recruits at a 25 to 30 level.

In any other conference that would put them on pretty solid ground. There aren’t many teams in the ACC that consistently recruit at that level.

But in the SEC it means bottom tier talent, so average to bad yearly records.
 
Their record the last 6 years:

6-7
5-7
6-7
6-5
9-4
8-5

In what universe is that top tier?

Yeah, they made a bad coaching hire and then are in a rebuild.

In 2021 Auburn went 6-7. They finished Top 25 in the analytic power rankings.

That’s life in the SEC. You can be a legit power Top 25 team, and have a losing record, because of the gauntlet of a schedule.

In any other conference, they’d be one of the two or three dominate programs.
 
If we’re talking production, then Arkansas is not ahead of us in football. They’ve had losing records 5 of the last 7 seasons. We are pretty much equal with Kentucky. Ole Miss is ahead of us right now with Kiffin, but they aren’t a traditional power. Auburn has been average for the last 10 years, but they have shown the ability to be really good (i.e. Cam Newton).
I agree that we’ve had more production than Arkansas, but they’re still going to be ranked ahead of us because they draw in bigger TV ratings and have a much larger fanbase, both the product of being the flagship university of their state. Historically, I think it comes down to how you view success; we had higher peaks than them, but they’ve consistently had more success than us over time.
 
Yeah, they made a bad coaching hire and then are in a rebuild.

In 2021 Auburn went 6-7. They finished Top 25 in the analytic power rankings.

That’s life in the SEC. You can be a legit power Top 25 team, and have a losing record, because of the gauntlet of a schedule.

In any other conference, they’d be one of the two or three dominate programs.
LOL
 
Arkansas recruits at a 25 to 30 level.

In any other conference that would put them on pretty solid ground. There aren’t many teams in the ACC that consistently recruit at that level.

But in the SEC it means bottom tier talent, so average to bad yearly records.
Pitt has had 15 players drafted over the last 4 seasons and Arkansas has had 8 players drafted.

Cool story bro!
 
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