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Who will be the starting 4 next year?

BballinsiderfromPitt

Heisman Winner
Feb 15, 2018
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Guillermo, Austin or portal addition?

Please please please tell me portal addition or Austin and the 12 mins Guillermo played at the 4 this year were out of necessity! Thoughts?
 
Given he likely commands a low NIl, the ROi is pretty decent. Stats improved during conference play. Decent from line. Having a true 5 is where a transfer is needed. I honestly rotating GDg at 4 would also be a decent ROi. I mean shooting nearly 40 percent from 3. They have to find a spot rather than bench him.
 
PG - Lowe
SG - Leggett
SF - Portal
PF - Portal (hoping for Meleek Thomas)
C - GDG, Fede, or Portal
 
Guillermo, Austin or portal addition?

Please please please tell me portal addition or Austin and the 12 mins Guillermo played at the 4 this year were out of necessity! Thoughts?


The staff is going to try to get the best talent possible in the portal and then reshuffle things, and thats the way it should be.


Our main targets have been 4's in the portal that rebound and shoot 3's, so we are obviously looking for a portal transfer to start at the 4.


Austin doesnt rebound well enough to be a 4 and is undersized. It would be a fail on the staff if he was even considered at the 4 to start unless our starting lineup is Lowe- Carrington-Thomas with Leggett off the bench to offset the severe rebounding weakness in the frontcourt.

Granted, Kante is going to be the best rebounding player on the roster from day 1 and its not going to be close.
 
Agreed. So where makes most sense while limiting defensive liability. Offensively he gets things flowing no doubt versus Fede.
The 5 is the spot where his advantages are most heightened, and his disadvantages are most nullified. In other words, he is a five because that is his best position on the court.
 
The way I see it is that it all depends on the way some other positions fall.

If your 1-2-3 is Lowe-Leggett-Bub, you absolutely have to get a shooter at the 4.

If Bub declares for the NBA and you're able to get a scorer at the 5, you might be able to afford to get a Greg Elliot type at the 3 and then a defense/rebounding-minded bruiser at the 4. All just depends.

I like Austin a lot... but more as a high energy guy off the bench who can hit an occasional 3. You simply have to upgrade the 4 and the 5 if you're going to make up for Hinson, and possibly Carrington, moving on. Has to be improvement by committee. If the starting 4 or 5 for this coming season it on the roster right now, I'll be disappointed.


... Unless Kante really is the lovechild of Dennis Rodman and Ben Wallace, as Vader talks him up to be.
 
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Agreed. So where makes most sense while limiting defensive liability. Offensively he gets things flowing no doubt versus Fede.

The easiest way to fix this problem is to rebound better on defense. We had arguably the worst rebounding frontcourt in the entire power 6 this year when you look at the entire season.


The biggest issue and where a lot of our early season problems were with Fede. His DR rebound rates 7 straight games in a row were a DR rebound rate of 5 or less. Basically what that means is, you have to literally not even try to rebound the ball to be that putrid. Levance Fields and little Nelly Cummings and all 5'11 of them rebounded better than that.


When Fede got his head out of the sand January 6th against Louisville and decided to rebound again, we started winning again. Along with Lowe and a few other things like Ish healing from injury etc..


Guillermo played pretty decent the closing stretch of the season. But he fouls too much for perhaps a full time 30 minute role. I still like him at PF and he is ok as a center backup.



This team is going to score just fine next year without Blake Hinson just like we scored just fine without Blake Hinson against 1 seed North Carolina in the ACC semi finals with Bub coming back. How far we move up in the pecking order is going to depend on defense and rebounding and Ive constantly said that like a broken record.
 
The easiest way to fix this problem is to rebound better on defense. We had arguably the worst rebounding frontcourt in the entire power 6 this year when you look at the entire season.


The biggest issue and where a lot of our early season problems were with Fede. His DR rebound rates 7 straight games in a row were a DR rebound rate of 5 or less. Basically what that means is, you have to literally not even try to rebound the ball to be that putrid. Levance Fields and little Nelly Cummings and all 5'11 of them rebounded better than that.


When Fede got his head out of the sand January 6th against Louisville and decided to rebound again, we started winning again. Along with Lowe and a few other things like Ish healing from injury etc..


Guillermo played pretty decent the closing stretch of the season. But he fouls too much for perhaps a full time 30 minute role. I still like him at PF and he is ok as a center backup.



This team is going to score just fine next year without Blake Hinson just like we scored just fine without Blake Hinson against 1 seed North Carolina in the ACC semi finals with Bub coming back. How far we move up in the pecking order is going to depend on defense and rebounding and Ive constantly said that like a broken record.
Why does it matter who gets the rebounds? We were an excellent defensive rebounding team this year. It shouldn’t matter whether most of those rebounds come from the frontcourt or the backcourt. Getting the rebounds is what matters.
 
Why does it matter who gets the rebounds? We were an excellent defensive rebounding team this year. It shouldn’t matter whether most of those rebounds come from the frontcourt or the backcourt. Getting the rebounds is what matters.
Individual rebounding stats can be the most overrated stat there is too. Unless it's someone like Blair averaging an obscene amount and just dominating, it's often a misleading stat of who happened to be in the right place at the right time.
 
Why does it matter who gets the rebounds? We were an excellent defensive rebounding team this year. It shouldn’t matter whether most of those rebounds come from the frontcourt or the backcourt. Getting the rebounds is what matters.

2 things

1) For the entire season, Pitt finished 66th in the country in actual rebound margin at +3. Its respectable, but it could be a lot better and needs to be if we want to be a contender for something. We were no where near "excellent". Excellent is Uconn who finished the year 10th nationally with a +8 rebound margin per game.

2) You are limiting your transition offense because all the guards have to cheat to the interior to help out the weak rebounding bigs. In our case, our 2 guards in Bub and Leggett were snagging all the boards. The third issue is, when you have to cheat to the interior to offset the rebounding weakness, you give 3 point shooters more space.

The entire turning point in that ACC semifinals was when UNC took over on the glass. They started pounding us on the boards. We opened up that early nice lead on them because we had a huge jump out of the gate on them on the glass. Guillermo was actually really good in that game on the boards.

We dont need Blair dominance here. We need Mcghee level.
 
2 things

1) For the entire season, Pitt finished 66th in the country in actual rebound margin at +3. Its respectable, but it could be a lot better and needs to be if we want to be a contender for something. We were no where near "excellent". Excellent is Uconn who finished the year 10th nationally with a +8 rebound margin per game.

2) You are limiting your transition offense because all the guards have to cheat to the interior to help out the weak rebounding bigs. In our case, our 2 guards in Bub and Leggett were snagging all the boards. The third issue is, when you have to cheat to the interior to offset the rebounding weakness, you give 3 point shooters more space.

The entire turning point in that ACC semifinals was when UNC took over on the glass. They started pounding us on the boards. We opened up that early nice lead on them because we had a huge jump out of the gate on them on the glass. Guillermo was actually really good in that game on the boards.

We dont need Blair dominance here. We need Mcghee level.
Rebounding margin doesn’t matter, though, because that’s a number that’s inherently linked to how many shots a team makes or misses. It’s not a level playing field unless you take as a given that both teams will have the same amount of opportunities to get a rebound in every single game, which just doesn’t happen.

Pitt’s team defensive rebounding percentage this year was #12 in college basketball - legitimately excellent. And I hear you on the tempo aspect with guards rebounding more, but the three point defense aspect didn’t bear out on the court - Pitt was #25 in 3 point percentage allowed at 30.8%. So we weren’t giving up a bunch of clean three point looks.
 
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Rebounding margin doesn’t matter, though, because that’s a number that’s inherently linked to how many shots a team makes or misses. It’s not a level playing field unless you take as a given that both teams will have the same amount of opportunities to get a rebound in every single game, which just doesn’t happen.

Pitt’s team defensive rebounding percentage this year was #12 in college basketball - legitimately excellent. And I hear you on the tempo aspect with guards rebounding more, but the three point defense aspect didn’t bear out on the court - Pitt was #25 in 3 point percentage allowed at 30.8%. So we weren’t giving up a bunch of clean three point looks.

You got to be careful with stats like that because of the strength of schedule.

We had a +30 rebound margin against North Carolina A&T. Bub also had a triple double against this low quality opponent.



Against teams with a real frontcourt.

Pitt was -9 against UNC and -10 against UNC in the ACC tournament semifinals. There was I think a +15 in rebound margin for UNC after the 10 minute mark or so.

Pitt was -16 against Duke and +7 against Duke when Duke was down 2 starters

Pitt was -7 against Clemson twice

Those are the 3 best teams in the ACC. And we lost the rebound battle against all of them.
 
You got to be careful with stats like that because of the strength of schedule.

We had a +30 rebound margin against North Carolina A&T. Bub also had a triple double against this low quality opponent.



Against teams with a real frontcourt.

Pitt was -9 against UNC and -10 against UNC in the ACC tournament semifinals. There was I think a +15 in rebound margin for UNC after the 10 minute mark or so.

Pitt was -16 against Duke and +7 against Duke when Duke was down 2 starters

Pitt was -7 against Clemson

Those are the 3 best teams in the ACC. And we lost the rebound battle against all of them.
I just said that I don’t really care about rebounding margin compared to rebounding percentage.

We lost the rebounding margin to Wake Forest in January by 8. Do you think that’s because they outrebounded us, or was it because they only missed 20 shots and Pitt missed 44? Meaning that Wake had 24 additional opportunities to get a defensive rebound?
 
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I just said that I don’t really care about rebounding margin compared to rebounding percentage.

We lost the rebounding margin to Wake Forest in January by 8. Do you think that’s because they outrebounded us, or was it because they only missed 20 shots and Pitt missed 44? Meaning that Wake had 24 additional opportunities to get a defensive rebound?


I think when you consistently lose the rebound battle, margin, percentage, or anything else against the best teams on the schedule and the main issue is frontcourt rebounding, we should fix the frontcourt rebounding issue the following season.


I mean, Im not like making this stuff up. There was a clear as day reason Fede got benched this season for Guillermo and the main driver of that was poor rebounding. When you rebound worse than a 5'10 guard, the plug is going to get pulled.
 
Meleek plays with the ball in his hands

He's a 3 and half. What's your point? Doesnt shoot well enough yet to play guard. That's down the road. And his handle is good for a 3 and a half but not good enough for a guard. His NBA projection is based on his ceiling, which is really high. At the college level, he's not as good as Hinson and would be an above average ACC player but not a guy going to average 19 and be 1st team.
 
He's a 3 and half. What's your point? Doesnt shoot well enough yet to play guard. That's down the road. And his handle is good for a 3 and a half but not good enough for a guard. His NBA projection is based on his ceiling, which is really high. At the college level, he's not as good as Hinson and would be an above average ACC player but not a guy going to average 19 and be 1st team.
He's closer to a 1 than a 4 lol. He is nowhere near a 4. Would you play Bub at the 4?

Pitt would have zero chance to land him if they floated him that idea.
 
He's closer to a 1 than a 4 lol. He is nowhere near a 4. Would you play Bub at the 4?

Pitt would have zero chance to land him if they floated him that idea.

2 is probably appropriate with some 3. He really isn't a true 1, he's very strong on the glass, streaky 3 point shooter but has the ability to get it going, respectable vision and passer but no where near elite. Some Bub similarities here. Gets after it on defense. Good with dribble penetration and in the transition game.

He obviously likes the ball in his hands but he is turnover prone which has been an issue in the past. Also like Bub, I think he needs better shot selection.
 
Guillermo, Austin or portal addition?

Please please please tell me portal addition or Austin and the 12 mins Guillermo played at the 4 this year were out of necessity! Thoughts?
Portal, need to upgrade. No way Ish should have a higher rebound rate per minute over these 2. Austin & G both have some useful skills to help but to reach the next level you need a better 4.
 
Individual rebounding stats can be the most overrated stat there is too. Unless it's someone like Blair averaging an obscene amount and just dominating, it's often a misleading stat of who happened to be in the right place at the right time.
Averaging 10 a game over 30 games would not be a misleading stat and not a matter of being at the right place at the right time.....it would be a matter of being a great rebounder...there is such a thing..
 
Portal, need to upgrade. No way Ish should have a higher rebound rate per minute over these 2. Austin & G both have some useful skills to help but to reach the next level you need a better 4.
They need a portal 4 and 5. Zach and GDG are nice complimentary players but you cant put all your eggs in their basket. Gotta hope JC has some more portal magic left as the core guards are championship caliber.
 
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They need a portal 4 and 5. Zach and GDG are nice complimentary players but you cant put all your eggs in their basket. Gotta hope JC has some more portal magic left as the core guards are championship caliber.
Agree. And there will be more portal options than ever this year. Sure everyone will know the big names or the super productive guys at smaller schools. But there are so many good players at smaller schools that will be available when the portal gets into full force. Players that can be had for the right $ to fit the budget and help as long as Pitt does their homework.

I would hope they had several lower level assistants watching tons of the mid & lower D1 conference games all year as well as to D2. Hell CSU had 2 D2 starters last night. 25th ranked Wash St has a player named Jaylen Wells, a D2 transfer who is one of the best shooters in the nation. With a big year next year he will get NBA looks.
 
Averaging 10 a game over 30 games would not be a misleading stat and not a matter of being at the right place at the right time.....it would be a matter of being a great rebounder...there is such a thing..
Correct, hence my Blair example lol.

There is someone on almost every team in America averaging 7 rebounds per game.
 
Correct, hence my Blair example lol.

There is someone on almost every team in America averaging 7 rebounds per game.
A rebounder/physical big Pitt could prob get for a good price is someone they are familiar with, Frank Mitchell from Canisius. He’s a grown man unlike our skinny bigs at 6’ 8” 245. He was All MAAC and a walking double double at 12 PT, 12 RB, 1 block and 56% FG.

Against Pitt he went for 12 points on 6/8 75% shooting to go along with 9 rebounds. Against Cuse he also had 12 and 9 while shooting 66% in limited minutes due to foul trouble. Basically just stated these 2 games to show he can get it done vs P5 teams.

Vs St Bon in a win he had 10 points 5/6 FG and 11 rebounds in just 21 min.

Vs western Kentucky he had 17 points & 16 rebounds on 66% shooting.

Had 20 double figure rebounding games. He’s not even in the portal but he’s the kind of grown man big Pitt should reach out to through back channels and could probably get him for a good deal. Doesn’t have to be him, but there are similar other big men out there that can help. This team needs a grown man inside who won’t get backed down like our current skinny bigs.
 
A rebounder/physical big Pitt could prob get for a good price is someone they are familiar with, Frank Mitchell from Canisius. He’s a grown man unlike our skinny bigs at 6’ 8” 245. He was All MAAC and a walking double double at 12 PT, 12 RB, 1 block and 56% FG.

Against Pitt he went for 12 points on 6/8 75% shooting to go along with 9 rebounds. Against Cuse he also had 12 and 9 while shooting 66% in limited minutes due to foul trouble. Basically just stated these 2 games to show he can get it done vs P5 teams.

Vs St Bon in a win he had 10 points 5/6 FG and 11 rebounds in just 21 min.

Vs western Kentucky he had 17 points & 16 rebounds on 66% shooting.

Had 20 double figure rebounding games. He’s not even in the portal but he’s the kind of grown man big Pitt should reach out to through back channels and could probably get him for a good deal. Doesn’t have to be him, but there are similar other big men out there that can help. This team needs a grown man inside who won’t get backed down like our current skinny bigs.

I would be all for this, DR rebound rate over 30!!! That is 3 times higher than Fede.


However, I think the price tag is going to be quite a bit more than you are anticipating if this guy comes out, which I dont see why he wouldnt want to transfer. I can see a lot of schools getting in on this.
 
A rebounder/physical big Pitt could prob get for a good price is someone they are familiar with, Frank Mitchell from Canisius. He’s a grown man unlike our skinny bigs at 6’ 8” 245. He was All MAAC and a walking double double at 12 PT, 12 RB, 1 block and 56% FG.

Against Pitt he went for 12 points on 6/8 75% shooting to go along with 9 rebounds. Against Cuse he also had 12 and 9 while shooting 66% in limited minutes due to foul trouble. Basically just stated these 2 games to show he can get it done vs P5 teams.

Vs St Bon in a win he had 10 points 5/6 FG and 11 rebounds in just 21 min.

Vs western Kentucky he had 17 points & 16 rebounds on 66% shooting.

Had 20 double figure rebounding games. He’s not even in the portal but he’s the kind of grown man big Pitt should reach out to through back channels and could probably get him for a good deal. Doesn’t have to be him, but there are similar other big men out there that can help. This team needs a grown man inside who won’t get backed down like our current skinny bigs.

Check that.

He is now in the transfer portal.
 
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I would be all for this, DR rebound rate over 30!!! That is 3 times higher than Fede.


However, I think the price tag is going to be quite a bit more than you are anticipating if this guy comes out, which I dont see why he wouldnt want to transfer. I can see a lot of schools getting in on this.
Lock him up before he enters portal haha. Then he’s just like many who enter the portal and are signed the next day… making it clear a deal was already in place.

Let’s say he enters and plays the market, you’re probably right that he will be more expensive. But then JC might have to make some tough decisions and not welcome back a few guys. The 3 current bigs pretty much are what they are at this point. And you can’t count on a frosh kid coming off major knee surgery.
 
I hope JC was the first to offer as he doesn’t need to watch film since he saw him live.
 
Rebounding translates but scoring doesnt. Only averaging 12 as a big in the MAAC means he will provide no offense in the ACC. 5-6 PPG
Except he got his average vs Pitt & Cuse shooting a super high FG%. He actually scored more points per game against some of the bigger teams on their out of conference schedule. He’s a plus athlete and a grown man who will finish the lobs and dump off passes because of strength and jumping. Our current bigs missed tons of bunnies because they’re physically weak.
 
Except he got his average vs Pitt & Cuse shooting a super high FG%. He actually scored more points per game against some of the bigger teams on their out of conference schedule. He’s a plus athlete and a grown man who will finish the lobs and dump off passes because of strength and jumping. Our current bigs missed tons of bunnies because they’re physically weak.

Thats one of the first things I look at with respect to transfers. What does the player do against the best teams on the schedule with scoring, points, efficiency, etc..

With some guys, you can see clearly they struggle against better athletes and teams. With others, they hold ground or even in some cases, play better.


It will be interesting the school list that first gets released.

There were some folks on here that didn't like Joel Soriano either because of his stats at Fordham. And Rick Pitino turned him into a beast the the last 2 years.
 
I see Austin as someone who can jump out of the gym, block shots and rebound. Offensively, he's inconsistent.
 
Thats one of the first things I look at with respect to transfers. What does the player do against the best teams on the schedule with scoring, points, efficiency, etc..

With some guys, you can see clearly they struggle against better athletes and teams. With others, they hold ground or even in some cases, play better.


It will be interesting the school list that first gets released.

There were some folks on here that didn't like Joel Soriano either because of his stats at Fordham. And Rick Pitino turned him into a beast the the last 2 years.
Yep Mitchell put up numbers against the better teams they played in non conf.

Pitino only coached Joel for 1 year. He’s an all time great coach. Mike Anderson isn’t much as a coach but Joel actually had better numbers 2 years ago under Anderson. I think it was more due to the poor chemistry SJU seemed to have even though they were a bubble team. I’m surprised they didn’t play through Joel as much, but the perimeter players seemed pretty selfish in not getting him the ball. Maybe that’s why Rick changed his rotations 1 million times this year…
 
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